Friday, October 7, 2011

US Offshore Oil Imports Plummeting

The really good news is that offshore oil is taking the whole brunt of this monumental shift in North American oil flows.

A two million barrel decline in consumption is the present story that we cannot expect to hold once the economy starts to fully recover.  Yet we have also had a million and a half  barrel increases in internal Canadian and US production that has displaced a like amount of offshore oil.

In fact we have experienced a huge swing in the importation of offshore oil.  What is more, even a rebounding US economy is likely to now be met by rapidly climbing production in Canada and the USA.  Otherwise we are leaving the import business at the rate of one to two million barrels per year.

What this really means is that inside of five years, North America can be self sufficient in oil production.

Now I understand why OPEC is acting a little desperate.  The handwriting is really on the wall.  Of course they still have China and India and the EU to hustle.  They deserve each other.

I never dreamt that peak oil would be driven by the USA leaving the oil market.  Demand is actually soon to collapse anyway as the energy system changes over to electric cars.

Understanding the reduction in percentage of oil imports in the United States

 SEPTEMBER 30, 2011

The actual levels seem to be more of a shift from 61-63% imports to 47% imports. 3.8 million barrels per day of lower oil imports but 1.8 million barrels per day is from lower oil usage. A lot of the lower oil usage is because of the higher prices for oil and a weaker economy.

Net imports of oil and fossil fuel liquids have decreased to 8.0 to 9.5 million barrels per day in 2010 and 2011 (average about 9.0 million barrel per day). From 2005 to 2007, the net imported crude oil and petroleum products was 12.0 to 13.3 million barrels per day (average about 12.8 million barrels per day) 

The total petroleum supplied to the United States from 2005 to 2007 was 19.7 to 21.4 million barrels per day (average about 20.8 million barrels per day). In 2010 and 2011 the petroleum used has been 18.1 to 20.2 million barrels per day (average petroleum used has been 19.0 million barrels per day).

Ethanol is up about 100,000 to 200,000 barrel per day and natural gas liquids have increased.

Oil Production has increased and will continue to increase in the United States.

Chesapeake Energy expects to increase its net liquids production by 50%, to more than 150,000 barrels a day by the end of 2012. By the end of 2015, the company expects to increase its liquids production by 150%, climbing to more than 250,000 barrels a day. Chesapeake plans to boost its rig count in the Utica shale to 10 by the end of 2011, double the current number, and said it’ll be drilling with 20 rigs by the end of 2012 and with up to 40 by the end of 2014. 

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