War remains a terribly ineffective tool and expectation of capitulation is stupid. Only an individual can capitulate. Recall Kaiser wilhelm capitulated and left. The country submitted. Then it recovered and became way better at war and we had round two.
Leadership is always the issue and repacement is both tricky and also needs to be strongly supported. We do regime change because it is actually necessary. Our failure is supporting true regime change to a stable acceptable outcome.
Iran needs regime change that excludes islamic fascism in particuoar, but also trusts the persians to eleect good people. This then needs to be properly supported. just as McArthur got shiploads of food into japan
The Iran off-ramp Trump keeps driving past
Trump built an identity partly on disdain for wars his predecessors couldn’t end yet clings to the fantasy of Iran’s total capitulation
by Leon HadarAugust 5, 2026
Donald Trump campaigned against ending America's 'forever wars' but appears to have started another one. Image: X Screengrab
Five months into what historians will likely call the 2026 Iran war, Washington finds itself in a posture it has occupied before, in Vietnam, in Iraq, in Afghanistan: too deep in to walk away cleanly, not deep enough in to call the thing won.
US President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again threats to unleash what he has taken to calling the “biggest attack since World War II,” followed within days by announcements that talks are “close,” followed by Tehran denying any talks are happening at all, is not a negotiating strategy.
It is the sound of a superpower discovering, in real time, that airpower can devastate a country without producing the political settlement it was supposed to buy.
This is the pattern realists have been warning about since the buildup began: the gap between what military force can destroy and what it can deliver. The United States and Israel have degraded Iranian military infrastructure, damaged nuclear-linked facilities, killed commanders.
What they have not done is produce an Iranian government willing to capitulate on terms Washington can call victory, or a regional order that doesn’t require the US Navy to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by force indefinitely. Oil tankers are already rerouting around Africa. That alone should tell policymakers something about how “contained” this war actually is.
