Friday, November 28, 2008

Financial Size Regulation

In my article on the establishment of a universal health care system, I emphasized the importance of distributing oversight and management down to the State level. Upon reflection, I realized that this must be also done for a number of quasi government agencies directed to implement national policies.

The most visible today are Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. They are, as national instruments, far to big to fail. As State instruments, they could and be swiftly reconstituted as viable enterprises. And the temptation to deploy resources into the international securities market both as a buyer and seller abates. Do you really think that this could have happened had that been implemented in the first place?

Surely AIG deserves the same fate for the same reasons. Besides, the underwriters are past masters at syndicating the larger deals needing that scale of support. It is time they earned their fees.

The big lesson for us all, is that the ease of capital availability to larger enterprises will always bring the temptation to grow an organization by simple acquisition. This eventually creates organizational sizes that in the event of failure are dangerous to the national interest. We have that now with GM, hobbled for years with the strangle hold of their non competitive union contracts. It is finally broken. Its collapse will massively damage the US economy. Its trip through chapter 11 will resolve the contract problem.

Other companies do come to mind. GE is an extraordinarily well managed company that simply does not need to be under the same corporate roof. Six hundred plus divisions are all operating on a stand alone basis. I guarantee you that if we spun out every one of those divisions, the resulting market value would be far higher that the present. Particularly for it to be a primary asset in Warren Buffet’s portfolio.

Mergers and Acquisitions are the plaything of money managers and is driven by fat fees rather than any net gain. In fact, there is more typically a net loss. They make good sense when a strong mature company is able to provide capital access for a rapidly expanding business. The best example of that was Wendy’s acquisition of Tim Hortons. Ten years on a solid capital diet and Tim Hortons surpassed MacDonalds in Canada and began a sound expansion program in the USA. It did so well, in fact that investors forced Wendy’s to disgorge Tim hortons.

A principal of national; oversight must become the distribution and wise breakup of assets large enough to damage the national interest on failure. In fact, I would go so far as to mandate sharply lower credit availability in such an instance. The risk is clear, so regulate it accordingly.

The big five investment banks needed less leverage several years ago because of their size rather than more. That would have leveled the playing field and preserved them from participating from a dash to the bottom. And if they did not like that, then break up.

Health Care System

The incoming US administration has the capability and possibly the will to introduce a universal health care program that will surely take its lead from the experiences of other countries. I will share some ideas that may provide an anchor for the program’s design.

First, distribute control and management of the system to the States with a fifty-fifty cost and revenue sharing formula. This immediately removes the whole subject from the National legislature, rarely to be heard from again. It also gives the states a high level of responsibility and localized management under the pressure of state to state competition.

Second, design the program around a broad palette of authorized core services. There will always be someone unhappy and complaining, but good investments in future human productivity can certainly be identified and nurtured. Let the States manage this. Failures will attract censure and keep them all honest.

Third, permit premium services but do not allow anyone holding a medical license to provide such services to more than a third of his practice. Ensure that all practitioners are trained in modern scheduling methods to eliminate wait times.

An umbrella organization can be set up and extended to each State as it adopts the program and sets up. Ensure that licensing and all individual rights are completely transferrable between States. Some States will have to solve funding issues, and some will be more restrictive than others, but in time this will all sort itself out without wasting further effort on the part of the National government. Private insurers will be allowed to provide extended services not covered by the basic coverage.

I have kept this as short and simple as possible. The idea is to lay this off to the States as quickly as possible. They want State rights – let them have the hot potato. It will keep them on their toes for the next century or so. It certainly worked forty years ago in Canada and a noticeable result is that medical profession has forgotten what bad debt is and they rarely let themselves be dangerously overworked.

Of course, young surgeons will complain about the long waiting times that they are subjected to because the old boys have first dibs.
I do not think it was ever fully appreciated in Canada how first one province made it happen (one of the poorest) which triggered a couple of more provinces to bend to popular demand. That then led to a National system that was quickly adopted by all provinces. It really came from the bottom up and in the face of virulent opposition from the medical industry.
The same has not happened in the USA while the status quo has actually worsened. Remember, the USA pays fifty percent more per capita while excluding a third of the population than Canada for essentially the same core service. So called wait times apply only because of imperfect planning and could easily be taken out of the system but has not because of the usual political howl.

Solid State Refrigeration and Microchips

This gives us another eyeball into the world of thin film solid state refrigeration. Everyone understands the importance of this work and here we see application work underway to harness this for microchip cooling.

We are very much on the early phases of the research road, but the destination is clear and obvious. We need solid state hyper cold surfaces to maintain super conductor circuits and perhaps magnetic exclusion. I think it is fair to say that everyone is going in the same direction.

As I have posted, we know this will give us the ability to manufacture a closed craft able to exclude the surrounding magnetic field. This still a very small step.
Solid-state refrigeration for cooling microprocessors
Ramanathan, S. Chrysler, G.M.
Components Res. Dept., Intel Corp., Hillsboro, USA;
This paper appears in:

Components and Packaging Technologies, IEEE Transactions on
Publication Date: March 2006
Volume: 29,
Issue: 1
On page(s): 179- 183
ISSN: 1521-3331
INSPEC Accession Number: 8808104
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1109/TCAPT.2006.
Current Version Published: 2006-02-27


Thin-film thermoelectrics (TECs) are potential candidates for cooling microprocessors due to their large cooling power density and ability to integrate with packages. In addition, there are no moving parts or noise generated during their operation. In particular, thin-film TECs offer the ability to cool localized regions of high heat flux (hot spots) in the die selectively, which is very useful for chips with nonuniform power maps. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the performance of thin-film TECs for reducing the junction temperature at hot spots in a die. We report the reduction in junction temperature for a representative power map as a function of input power to the TEC films for the first time. The potential benefits and limitations of scaling the TEC legs are calculated by solving the general TEC equations within a fully three-dimensional numerical model of the assembled die and package. Parasitic electrical contact resistance and back conduction from the hot-side to cold-side through any encapsulating or material surrounding TEC legs are also included in the model. Model calculations are performed for TEC figure of merit (ZT) values of 1 and 3 (for comparison). We determine an operating envelope for the TECs that leads to an optimum cooling capability. The impact of operating the TECs are calculated as well taking into account the temperature increase of the heat spreader due to heat influx from the hot-side of the TEC. It is shown that material breakthroughs as well as process improvements could enable solid-state refrigeration to be an attractive candidate for spot cooling in microprocessors.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Aube Balten on Interest rates

For those who like their financial news grim, I am serving up a further dose of Aubie Baltin. He is worth supporting, if only to prevent one from ever getting too exuberant.

He is quite right about the direct consequences of low interest rates on the global financial system. It has promoted reckless lending simply because it gave the lenders no other choice other than exiting the business. This way they postponed it for about five years and now they are all gone. I remember wondering where the portfolio managers were getting their returns from with interest rates so low. We now know it was from thin air and based on the unreasonable proposition that a third of the population was going to double their incomes in a couple of years.

My own experience has informed me that when everything is working fine, bright young rookies are allowed free rein because they simply do not understand the limits. These guys go full out producing crummier and crummier product. They barely know better. And once the genie is out of the bottle, only a market downswing can end it, usually by busting the tyros.

The banks need to start lending and to accept that they must now charge their best clients perhaps six percent while forgetting about apparent unlimited access to cheap money. They need the real income because their real cost of money is no longer tied strictly to the nominal interest rate. It is tied to a ballooning loss rate that is certainly no longer 0.5% but likely closer to 3%. That means that even at zero interest for money that their cost of money is too high. Therefore, if they project a 3% loss ratio on their portfolios and place the funds at 6% they will be fine. At the portfolios improve, this cost structure will return to historic levels fairly quickly.

The mismanagement of the mortgage portfolio is already under control, except that they have yet to restructure the loans as per my suggestions. The overhang is so large that the underling real estate will continue to sink in value putting all mortgages underwater. The price drop in the USA was an astounding 20% this past quarter. This process is the equivalent of approaching every mortgage holder and effectively demanding immediate repayment.

We must set a mark to market day against which all mortgages can be automatically be restructured by the lenders.

Otherwise we will go to a price structure that taps only folks able to pay mostly cash.

The truth is that this is all pretty depressing to dwell on since ye and thee can do naught.

This crisis or collapse of confidence has exposed all the weak sisters for what they are and they will now be either fixed or rooted out. It is difficult and will require time.

Two things are happening or need to happen.

First of and well underway, the financial industry has had its capital replaced to make up present losses and thus permitting them to stay in the business of trying to fix their portfolios. All this money has already been lost into the economy over the past five years and cannot be recovered. It prevents fire sale liquidation of the banking industry as occurred in the, and was the real cause of the Great Depression. It is one thing for half the financial system to disappear into thin air, it is quite another for half the real economy to disappear as a direct result.

Second and not yet beginning we need a massive encouragement of investment in the energy business with guarantees and related contracts. This should include a massive switch over to electric cars ASAP. These will all repatriate cash flow into the domestic energy business. The Middle East needs to be put on notice that we are withdrawing from the oil business permanently.

If this were all happening, the USA balance of payments would quickly right itself and we would enter rapid growth. But as Aubie Balten laments, who is listening?

Dec 1st Issue

For People Who Think


The world, as well as all the experts, are witnessing in utter shock and disbelief the potential break down of the world’s financial system. They still can’t figure out why this is happening and therefore do not know what they should or could do about it.

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES are the main reason why free markets work and managed markets (Socialism) must eventually break down; nobody ever even thinks about the potential seemingly unrelated unintended consequences. Even if there were a few smart people who do think about such things, it is impossible to conjure up all the possible permutations and combinations that over time only a Free Market can factor in while giving the exact right amount of weight to each factor and come up with the exact right price and solutions.


That’s enough of generalities; the main topic is ZERO interest rates and the unintended consequences of the FED maintaining artificially LOW interest rates. On numerous occasions, I have pointed out and explained the functions of interest rates, such as determining the marginal propensity to consume vs. save. and the most efficient allocation of scarce savings among investment projects. But theses are well known factors even though they have been ignored and are the main causes behind the business cycle.

LEVERAGE has become the main unintended consequence of artificially low interest rates. With a real inflation rate of 3% and yield spread of only 2%, it is impossible for Banks to make money and therefore no lending will take place unless a way could be found to increase the rate of return on their capital: Low and behold, LEVERAGE was discovered. If you could leverage your capital at 10 to 1, a 1% profit becomes a 10% profit. At 40 to 1, 1% becomes 40% and at a 100 to 1 you double your money every year. Not to bad, AY? But alas, there is a catch; leverage is a two edged sword. A 1% loss on a 100 to 1 leverage wipes out your capital completely. Among the first highly leveraged deals was the carry trade; buying US Treasuries with borrowed Yen. And what a deal that turned out to be. Initially, not only did they make money on the interest rate spread but they made even more as the Dollar began increasing 5% to 8% a year against the Yen. This gave rise to the Hedge Fund Industry as they convinced everyone how smart they were. Of course they did not warn anyone about the risks involved or of the possibility that the Yen would reverse and go up against all currencies. Therefore the only safe thing to do was to move the business offshore, limiting the investors to exempt investors and institutions: Low and behold, no Government rules or oversight and no SEC approved audited prospectus requirement: After all, exempt individuals and institutions are supposed to be smart enough to protect themselves, right? Too bad they had to ignore all the little suckers but never mind, there were enough rich suckers with a lot more money to go around. What they never expected was that after a few years of 40%+ returns, the biggest suckers of all, the major Pension and Endowment Funds, after 10 years of no gain in stocks, would jump into the quicksand with both feet.. PARADISE FOUND.

There is always an element of self preservation at work at all times and now that they had found a license to print money, they looked for a way to both increase their leverage and more importantly, protect themselves against risks. Low and behold, Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and other insurance derivatives against other types of risks (interest rates, currency, etc.) were invented, which allowed leverage to be increased to unimagined levels. But it didn’t stop there. Whatever the Market was looking for Wall St. created. The one thing Pension, Insurance and other big Investors were looking for was AAA Bonds that paid a high enough rate of return (since Treasuries were no longer paying enough) to allow them to stay in business without taking undue risk. Sure enough, the experts on Wall St. provided that using sub-prime mortgages packaged and repackaged using CDS’S as they coerced the credit rating agencies into give them AAA ratings on junk sub-prime MBS’S and they were snapped up like crazy. The real professionals knew that the stock market was way overpriced and all they wanted was a reasonable 5% to 7% return on AAA no risk Bonds. Ask and you shall receive. Wall St. couldn’t package them fast enough. But they should have known better because any time you are offered something that is too good to be true, it usually is not true, especially not in the volumes that were involved. They were making so much money that Wall St. began to believe their own B.S. and so when Yen started to appreciate and the carry trade was no longer so hot they loaded up on their own junk. After all they had to put their ill gotten gains somewhere. Everything was going fine as long as the real estate market, the ultimate insurer, that was backing all this pie in the sky, was appreciating at a compound annual rate of 15% to 25% plus. But alas, all good things must come to an end as reality eventually sets in and all bubbles and Ponzi schemes must also eventually blow-up.

We are now living through and witnessing what happens when government interferes with the free markets and no matter how good the intentions, their inability to identify all of the unintended consequences of artificially low interest rates, came back to bite us all in the neck.


It is hard for me to understand why Economists (left & Right) still want to continue doing what got them into trouble in the first place. Hasn’t the last 20 years of Japan’s, zero interest rate, recession, taught them anything?

As far back as 2004, I began writing essay after essay, trying to explain what the functions of interest rates are and how they worked, but nobody was listening and nobody took any interest. In letter after letter there was often a paragraph that pointed out the perils of excessively low interest rates. What about the savers I screamed as the nation’s saving rate dropped from a high of 15% to zero and then -1%? What about the retired seniors who had their life savings in12% and 15% CD’S and Treasuries that were now maturing and could only be replaced with 3% or 4% CD”S - how will they be able to pay their bills?. Let them buy Stock Mutual Funds that have returned an average of 8% over the last 75 years (the BIG lie). Besides, what are they complaining about? We just gave them free prescription drugs didn’t we? But who cared, the party was a blast and the champagne (money) was flowing like water. Besides, who wants to listen to a kill-joy when you’re having fun? Unfortunately, even the best of parties must come to an end as the sun always rises and every party must be paid for by someone. The bigger the party, the bigger the bill. This party was so big that the whole world will end up paying a far higher price than anyone could possibly have imagined. (say unintended consequences?)

If history is any guide, World War III is near at hand. GOD I hope I’m wrong this time.


They've been dumping Gold for a couple of reasons: 1) prices are falling; 2) credit lines are either being pulled back or completely taken away. 3) In many cases, investors have no choice but to liquidate their gold positions as they are their only positions that have a decent bid and or are their only positions in which they are still showing a profit. ( Great Idea; cut your profits short, so you can pay taxes on them, while letting your losses run; Is that how its supposed to go?)

During the heyday of the commodity bubble, I cautioned all investors that there would be a major supply response to continued high prices. The Laws of Supply and Demand may be asleep but they are not Dead.
What could keep Gold prices down?

You would really have to get back to a place where the economic, political and financial situations are no longer worrisome ... before you see people sell gold and jump back into stock and bonds. That's the only likely scenario for lower gold prices that I can come up with In the gold mining equity market or any other mining market, even Oil and Gas, you saw that the price of the equities were pushed much higher by the momentum players (hedge Funds) than what could be considered a reasonable value. Now, the prices of a lot of equities are far below what you could consider a reasonable value for the enterprise. The rules of the game never changes but they do masquerade in an attempt to fool the majority; the lazy and the gullible: It’s the way the world works, I guess.


If you can recall my Jan. 2008 article “GOLD AND A KONDRIETIFF WINTER” If you can’t then I strongly suggest you go back in to my archives and read it again. By the S & P breaking down below its 2002 Bear Market lows; we now have confirmation that we are in multi-generational Bear Market of Grand Super-cycle proportions. If it is to be only a Wave {IV} down, correcting Wave {III} of the Bull Market that began in the mid 1700’s as Prechter, Hughs and some other well know Elliott Wave Theoreticians, believe and not the fifth and final WAVE {5} then the good news is “The World is Not Coming To an End” The BAD NEWS is that we will most likely see significant NEW lows that will probably go much lower than Thursdays lows (maybe as low as DJII 4000) before this Bear Market is over. We have only seen the first wave (Wave A) of the Tsunami and the devastating second Wave (Wave C) is yet to come. Luckily things are not all bad and the good news is we are about to enter a period of relative calm, Wave B of the Forth Wave {which is usually an a,b,c,d,e, Diagonal Triangle; with the a wave being the longest} is often only a sideways type phase- to this three phase Bear market. This Grand Super-cycle wave {IV} down is correcting centuries of Bull Markets and it will seem fast, and furious. But time-wise, it may be relatively short compared to other Grand Super-cycle waves, but damage-wise, this Bear Market could change the world. The next 4 years and the election of 2012 could be the most important election since 1776 as it will determine whether we regress into the Demagoguery of Communism - Fascism or explode into a new era of FREEDOM.

We are at or near the end of the first phase; Wave {A} down. That bottom is imminent. In fact it may have been made Thursday, November 20th, 2008, Or, it may need one more declining wave to complete this wave {A} down move from October 2007, a Super-cycle wave that has wiped out a decade of stock market gains, over 50 percent of the market's value, in just one year!

Wave {B} up which may have started Friday, November 21st, or will within a week or so ( I will be able to get a better picture once I am sure that the Wave {A} bottom has been made)


Wave {B} up is a gift. It is for short term Traders only use it to BUILD YOUR CASH POSITIONS AND GET OUT OF DEBT. It is like the eye of a level 5 hurricane. Your last chance to raise cash at higher prices. Because, once it completes, the devastating plunge will resume and take prices far lower than anyone - even Bears can - now imagine, wave C’s down behave like Wave 3’s, They are usually the longest and strongest of the waves and therefore Wave {B‘s} are the best time to accumulate GOLD.
The Industrials are down 2,204 points, or 22.8 percent since Election Day. The S&P 500 is down 266 points, or 26.5 percent since Election Day.

What bothers me is that Thursday did not see a DJII closing low below the Bear Market low of 2002. But since Friday closed 5 percent higher, I cannot rule out a bottom but I am still a bit hesitant in calling a bottom because (a) my Elliott wave Declining pattern does not look complete and (b) the 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator actually got worse Friday for both the S&P 500 and for the NDX, on a day when prices rose 5 percent. That is odd for the start of a rally phase after such a strong sell-off - Call it a minor Bearish Divergence. (c) New Lows were also way too high again on Friday, (d) 47 percent of total issues traded on the NYSE were down. And Advances were only 63 percent of total issues traded. The start of major rally phases normally do better than that. We also did not get a 90 percent up day Friday, which is something I would like to see at the start of a major rally. And finally Friday was options expiration day which is usually a rally day, anyway: And last but far from least The rally according to all the media talking heads was tied to the big news that Obama is tapping the popular New York Fed's President to be the next Secretary of the Treasury in 2010, really?. Rallies on news often can't really be trusted, especially when the big new is really no news at all.

I am offering a Special two year subscription for only $339. The one year subscription is still a reasonable $199 until the end of the year at which time prices will increase to $269.00 and $469: Extend your subscription Now “PROCRASTINATION IS THE THIEF OF LIFE”

If you have been enjoying these letters and have found them to be useful please tell your friends


Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.
2078 Bonisle Circle
Palm Beach Gardens FL. 33418

Please Note: This article is for education purposes only and is designed to help you make up your own mind, not for me to make it up for you. Only you know your own personal circumstances so only you can decide the best places to invest your money and the degree of risk that you are prepared to take. The Information on data included here has been gleaned from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by me. Nothing stated in here should be taken as a recommendation for you to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

National Geographic Airs Documentary on Biochar

This has aired and is worth seeing when you get the chance. Biochar is entering the mainstream and people are now aware everywhere of the potential. Ample experimentation is underway. There is still a lot to be done, but acceptance is now no longer a problem.

As I commented in the very beginning of this emergent story, no one will be able to get past or challenge the thousand year field test in the Amazon. Without that lifetimes would have been wasted. Now everyone knows it works and a decent understanding of why is speeding fresh research.

Of course all the newcomers will have to climb the learning curve, but there is enough data out there, including that on this blog to speed the process. We have already come a long way in eighteen months.

ON TV Lost Cities of the Amazon airs Thursday, November 20, at 9 p.m. ET on the National Geographic Channel.

Centuries-old European explorers' tales of lost cities in the Amazon have long been dismissed by scholars, in part because the region is too infertile to feed a sprawling civilization.

But new discoveries support the idea of an ancient Amazonian urban network—and ingeniously engineered soil may have made it all possible.

Now scientists are trying to recreate the recipe for the apparently human-made supersoil, which still covers up to 10 percent of the Amazon Basin. Key ingredients included of dirt, charcoal, pottery, human excrement and other waste.

If recreated, the engineered soil could feed the hungry and may even help fight global warming, experts suggest.

Before 1492

Scientists have long thought the river basin's tropical soils were too acidic to grow anything but the hardiest varieties of manioc, a potatolike staple.

But over the past several decades, researchers have discovered tracts of productive terra preta—"dark earth." The human-made soil's chocolaty color contrasts sharply with the region's natural yellowish soils.

Research in the late 1980s was the first to show that charcoal made from slow burns of trees and woody waste is the key ingredient of terra preta.

With the increased level of agriculture made possible by terra preta, ancient Amazonians would have been able to live in one place for long periods of time, said geographer and anthropologist William Woods of the University of Kansas.

"As a result you get social stratification, hierarchy, intertwined settlement systems, very large scale," added Woods, who studies ancient Amazonian settlements.

"And then," he said, "1492 happens." The arrival of Europeans brought disease and warfare that obliterated the ancient Amazonian civilizations and sent the few survivors deep into the rain forest to live as hunter-gatherers.

"It completely changed their way of living," Woods said.

Magic Soil?

Today scientists are racing to tease apart the terra-preta recipe. The special soil has been touted as a way to restore more sustainable farming to the Amazon, feed the world's hungry, and combat global warming.
The terra-preta charcoal, called biochar, attracts certain fungi and microorganisms.

Those tiny life-forms allow the charcoal to absorb and retain nutrients that keep the soil fertile for hundreds of years, said Woods, whose team is among a few trying to identify the crucial microorganisms.

"The materials that go into the terra preta are just part of the story. The living member of it is much more," he said.

For one thing, the microorganisms break up the charcoal into smaller pieces, creating more surface area for nutrients to cling to, Woods said.

Anti-Global-Warming Weapon?

Soil scientist Johannes Lehmann of Cornell University is also racing to recreate terra preta.

The Amazonian dark soils, he said, are hundreds to thousands of years old, yet to this day they retain their nutrients and carbons, which are held mainly by the charcoal.

This suggests that adding biochar could help other regions of the world with acidic soils to increase agricultural yields.

Plus, Lehmann said, biochar could help reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere from the burning of wild lands to create new farm fields.

For example, specialized power plants could char agricultural wastes to generate electricity.

The process would "lock" much carbon that would have otherwise escaped into the atmosphere in the biochar. The biochar could then be put underground, in a new form of terra preta, thereby sequestering the carbon for centuries, Lehmann suggests.

Current Amazonian farming relies heavily on slash-and-burn agriculture—razing forests, then burning all of what's left.

By reverting to the ancient slash-and-char method—burning slowly and then mixing the charcoal into the soil—Amazonian carbon dioxide emissions could be cut nearly in half, according to Woods, of the University of Kansas.

With slash-and-burn, he noted, 95 percent of the carbon stored in a tree is emitted to the atmosphere. Slash-and-char emits about 50 percent, he said.

"The rest is put into different forms of black carbon, most of which are chemically inert for long periods of time—thousands of years."

In addition, the technique would allow many farmers to stay sedentary, Woods said.

Because the soil would apparently remain fertile for centuries, "they don't have to cut down the forest constantly and send it up into the atmosphere," he said.

Climatic Conditions Normal

With this sudden wave of climate skeptics, you may want to ask why they waited so long to make their opinions heard. After all, the arguments against the global warming theory have not changed.

What has happened is that the abrupt reversal in global temperatures has utterly wrecked the thirty year warming trend and it has made everyone review their thinking about the climate.

Exactly the same thing happened to me last year when I woke up to find we were suddenly having a cold winter immediately after an amazingly warm Arctic summer.

That brought me to ask what was actually happening to the global heat equation. Forget about the sun and CO2 or anything else that is by its nature on a slow cycle. An abrupt end to a warm era is still abrupt. Were did the heat go?

Well we know that in 2007 that the winds picked up extraordinarily and dumped a lot of heat into the Arctic melting a huge amount of sea ice. That certainly took care of a lot of Northern Hemispheric heat buildup.

The remaining question was if there was a quick recovery of global heat content right behind it. Well, no such luck. Right now, it looks like the cycle is reversing back to the low end of the cool part of the cycle and I am beginning to think that the real heat machine runs over a seventy year cycle and is managed through the Pacific Decadal Cycle. In other words, this all happened once before with the prior peak in the Thirties.

Internal variation masks a lot of it with the likes of El Nino and La Nino and the odd noisy volcano. But that seems to be the big picture as we can presently discern it.

It is also hard to isolate any significant contribution from solar variation in this scenario. The big picture is able to adjust global temperatures by about a single degree and no more. All other postulated movers are operating within that one degree and not so strongly as to properly separate themselves from the noise.

Right now, I think that we have our answer regarding the condition of the global climate. It is fine and if we want it to warm up we are going to have to convert the Sahara into a garden spot.

Scientists urge caution on global warming

November 25, 2008
By: Erika Lovley
November 25, 2008 05:42 AM EST

Climate change skeptics on Capitol Hill are quietly watching a growing accumulation of global cooling science and other findings that could signal that the science behind global warming may still be too shaky to warrant cap-and-trade legislation.

While the new Obama administration promises aggressive, forward-thinking environmental policies, Weather Channel co-founder Joseph D’Aleo and other scientists are organizing lobbying efforts to take aim at the cap-and-trade bill that Democrats plan to unveil in January.

So far, members of Congress have not been keen to publicly back the global cooling theory. But both senators from Oklahoma , Republicans Tom Coburn and Jim Inhofe, have often expressed doubts about how much of a role man-made emissions play.

“We want the debate to be about science, not fear and hypocrisy. We hope next year’s wave of new politics means a return to science,” said Coburn aide John Hart. “It’s the old kind of politics that doesn’t consider any dissenting opinions.”

The global cooling lobby’s challenge is enormous. Next year could be the unfriendliest yet for climate skeptics. Already, House Energy and Commerce Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.) has lost his gavel, in part because his peers felt he was less than serious about tackling global warming.

The National Academy of Sciences and most major scientific bodies agree that global warming is caused by man-made carbon emissions. But a small, growing number of scientists, including D’Aleo, are questioning how quickly the warming is happening and whether humans are actually the leading cause.

Armed with statistics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climate Data Center, D’Aleo reported in the 2009 Old Farmer’s Almanac that the U.S. annual mean temperature has fluctuated for decades and has only risen 0.21 degrees since 1930 — which he says is caused by fluctuating solar activity levels and ocean temperatures, not carbon emissions.

Data from the same source shows that during five of the past seven decades, including this one, average U.S. temperatures have gone down. And the almanac predicted that the next year will see a period of cooling.

“We’re worried that people are too focused on carbon dioxide as the culprit,” D’Aleo said. “Recent warming has stopped since 1998, and we want to stop draconian measures that will hurt already spiraling downward economics. We’re environmentalists and conversationalist at heart, but we don’t think that carbon is responsible for hurricanes.”
D’Aleo’s organization, the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project, is collaborating on the campaign with the Cooler Heads Coalition, a subgroup of the National Consumer Coalition with members including Americans for Tax Reform, the National Center for Policy Analysis and Citizens for a Sound Economy.
More than 31,000 scientists across the world have signed the Global Warming Petition Project, a declaration started by a group of American scientists that states man’s impact on climate change can’t be reasonably proven.
If the project gains traction, it might give skeptical lawmakers an additional weapon to fight cap-and-trade legislation to curtail greenhouse gases — a move they worry could damage the already fragile economy. At the least, congressional aides say, it could caution additional lawmakers from rushing into a hasty piece of legislation.

Many Hill skeptics have varying opinions on whether the earth’s temperature is warming more slowly than some environmentalists predict and how much man is actually contributing to it.

Inhofe’s staff has been steadily compiling a list of global cooling findings. And aides report that they have received countless e-mails from scientists worldwide supporting the theory. While Inhofe hasn’t indicated that he will move forward with the information anytime soon, his aides continue to compile it.

Republicans aren’t the only ones who are wary of hastily passing a greenhouse gas bill. Ten Democrats wrote to Senate leaders earlier this year, citing economic concerns as a key reason why they didn’t vote for the Senate’s cap-and-trade bill.

And despite Democrats’ pickups in the Senate this fall, several of the new Democrats are from conservative, energy-producing states and may not be supportive, either.

But congressional aides say it could be a long wait before lawmakers are comfortable pushing science that contradicts the global warming theory. And until the lobby gains traction, skeptics plan to continue pushing their ideas by arguing for protection of the economy, where they hope to meet middle ground with global warming supporters.

“Never underestimate the ability of Congress to offer nonsolutions to problems that do not exist,” said Marc Morano, communications director for the Republicans on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. “We could spend weeks arguing the mounting scientific evidence refuting man-made warming fears,” he added, “but it’s the economic arguments that have the most immediate impact.”

At the Cato Institute, senior fellow Patrick Michaels, a contributing author of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said most of Washington is already too deeply entrenched in the global warming mantra to turn back.

“You can’t expect the scientific community to now come to Washington and say this isn’t a problem.
Once the apocalypse begins to deliver research dollars, you don’t want to reverse it,” said Michaels. “ Washington works by lurching from crisis to crisis.”

Despite the growing science, the world’s leading crusader on climate change, Al Gore, is unconcerned.

“Climate deniers fall into the same camp as people who still don’t believe we landed on the moon,” said the former vice president’s spokeswoman, Kalee Kreider. “We don’t think this should distract us from the reality.”

XCore Plans Ticket Sales

I imagine we will see more of this in the press. But I am sure my readers likely care. This bird looks good to go and with the burst of private investment we are getting modern materials science applied to whole problem. We are now seriously overdue for a crash program to reengineer the shuttle program or a crash program to support an expanded version of one of these alternative birds.

We are a couple of steps away from been able to replicate the magnetic field exclusion lift system that UFO’s use, but still nowhere close to providing the energy. In the meantime, it would be a real break if we devised a smart strategy to use aerodynamic lift to get a hot engine on an easier trip above the atmosphere. We really do not need to be engineering through the first twenty miles or so if it can be avoided.

That gives me another idea. That post yesterday on the Pomare object cum nosecone.

It may be a fib but it got it all right. We need to follow up with a supply of money. That object can short circuit decades of painful research wit hard evidence. Anyone wish to back a real adventure? Contact me.

XCOR Aerospace to Announce Ticket Sales for Suborbital Space Flights

In a display of the power of competition, American entrepreneurs have broken the government monopoly on space travel, and succeeded in lowering the cost of space access before a single paying participant has taken a flight.

So, even if the overall economy may look down, the market for space tourism is looking up.

On Tuesday, December 2, XCOR Aerospace, builder of the 2-seat Lynx rocket-powered suborbital launch vehicle, is introducing its General Sales Agent for ticket sales and will announce a price that is substantially lower than prices quoted by leading competitors.

XCOR will introduce its new partner, a well-known and established travel entrepreneur with extensive experience in high-end adventure travel, who will outline the total Lynx flight experience, from initial screening, to training, and finally, the flight itself.

The first commercial Lynx suborbital space flight participant will also attend the conference, a European adventurer who aims to be the first person from his country to make a suborbital flight.

Three time shuttle pilot and commander, Col. Rick Searfoss (USAF-Ret) will describe the Lynx flight experience from the point of view of a test pilot and astronaut.

XCOR CEO Jeff Greason and COO Andrew Nelson will also attend. They will discuss design features that allow the Lynx to minimize its environmental impact: non-toxic propellants, clean-burning efficient engines, and a fully reusable system.

Chris Gilman, Founder and Chief Designer of Orbital Outfitters, a NASA spacesuit contractor, will join the press conference wearing the special spacesuit to be worn by all who fly aboard the Lynx. Gilman is also a renowned special effects expert who won an Academy Award for the "Cool Suit" climate control system used by actors in heavy costume.

Nanosolar Ships First Megawatt

A short note here catches us up on the activities of Nanosolar. While I do not understand the media silence on this major story, I do notice that plenty of folks are awake and tracking this story. Of course my readers have followed me with several stories that have steadily broken into the mainstream.

These suckers are about to be installed on a serious facility and will be beyond question or dispute. I suspect that we will see an IPO in the spring. Why lose any of this news?

Flexible solar cells!

Posted on November 22nd, 2008 by Phalgun Shenoy

It is heard that Nanosolar has started shipping its flexible thin-film solar cells, meeting its own deadline and marking a milestone for alternative solar-cell materials, that the first megawatt of its solar panels will be used as part of a power plant in eastern Germany! The company has developed a process to print solar cells made out of copper indium gallium selenide, a combination of elements believed to be an alternative to silicon. Owing to the high price of silicon, most companies are making thin film cells from copper indium gallium selenide, but it is stated that many have run into technical problems.

Solar energy would be significantly cheaper than fossil fuel and this is said to be attributable to the manufacturing process the company has developed and that eventually the company would be able to deliver solar electricity for less than a dollar per watt !

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Oil Reserve Calculations

It struck me, after posting my recent note on the problem with the unchallenged reserves quoted by the Saudi’s and the members of OPEC in general, that few people outside of the oil industry have a clear understanding of how these reserves are calculated.

Unlike the mining industry, who quite rightly minimize reserve calculation because it is very expensive and needs to be sufficient only to remain several years ahead of production, oil operates against a very different model because the reserves can be calculated early and accurately.

To book a reserve creditably in the oil business, it is necessary to make a discovery well first. That puts you in a field. At that point it is possible to map the confines of the field’s closure with relatively inexpensive seismic. A judicious placement of the next well usually toward the farthest closure boundary confirms continuity. At that point, provided the well is successful, you can do a preliminary reserve calculation that will probably stand up.

In fact it will stand up. That is why a deep discovery with only the discovery well in the pocket can be proclaimed so confidently as a multi billion barrel reserve. A second production well quickly refines the numbers to a level of confidence that permits production planning.

Thus, once such a reserve calculation is made, it is very unlikely that it will ever be upgraded significantly by additional in field drilling. Technology changes will upgrade resources, such as happened with the Alberta Tarsands. Expect additional upgrades driven by the development of THAI. Just remember though that no new oil is been found or even needs to be found in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The resource itself already exceeds a trillion barrels and apparently hugely exceeds that.

Therefore the addition of 150 billion barrels of Saudi reserves, not previously quoted by the pre Aramco discoverers is very suspect. Folks who find fields do brag about them at appropriate industry seminars. And the nature of reserve calculation as I have just described makes it very unlikely those reserves are coming from prior discoveries.

And it is not just the Saudis who are playing bullshit poker, so is the entirety of OPEC. As a result, the world has been gulled into sitting back and behaving like very good customers. The World has not invested aggressively in other resources with the exceptions of Canada in the Tarsands and Europe in the wind business and in nuclear. The US political system chose to sleep as this unfolded and is only now waking up to the dire necessity of action, although business has not been sleeping and has been pushing everywhere for position in the coming race to provide fresh energy.

By the by, if those reserves had a drop of credence, Saudi production would not be sitting at 5,000,000 barrels per day and teetering on the edge of sharp decline. You would have brought those reserves on line and lowered the take on existing fields. Instead they applied water injection to their best field as a method to maintain production volume. In the event, the shoe is overdue to drop. The way they squirmed last summer before they promised to release more oil, surely tells us that their above ground reserve is drawn down and is leaving them with no flexibility to massage the market.

The truth is that the dominos are falling slowly as field after field is in clear decline already, and the last to hit the wall will be the Saudis if it has not happened already.

Extraordinary Pomare Disc

This is an extraordinary report that lands hard on the heels of my article posted a few days ago.

In that report I ask the question ‘what is an UFO’ and answer that question in light of very recent advances in physics.

I then went searching for a specific type of evidence, having seen a sniff of it before in other reports.

Instead, I hit the jack pot. Please read this article on the Pomare Disc.

You have to wade through to the end of the article to find the most important information. The material shows twelve visible layering’s in the edge. As important, the outside layer is obviously graphene. What else could you use to conduct current and magnetic fields on the outside skin of a magnetic field exclusion bottle? The inner skin is an inert metallic element or alloy. The observations suggest an amorphous metallic alloy that may include gold. This is an area of research that is just starting to evolve.

The structure itself is surely the top or bottom of a UFO and is the equivalent to our nosecone. That it was found in the sea suggests that the craft may have failed in the vicinity and is worth scouting for. It does not seem likely that a craft using magnetic bottles for propulsion and magnetic exclusion for lift would be very airworthy missing any part of its skin.

It is conceivable that this story is a hoax and I am sure that the press will slander anyone associated with it. Except that the possibility of graphene did not exist months ago let alone thirty years ago and it is only now that we have enough physics to predict a layered skin and to understand its importance. I have no doubt that this article is genuine and represents our first major UFO component in hand.

This is an extremely important find and must be brought into a proper environment for study and data sharing.

Neutron Blast and Pleistocene Nonconformity

This report was made circa 2002 and predates the more recent report arguing for a major meteorite strike in the diamond fields region of Nunavut

Recently, I have argued that the event was a human planned precision strike whose effect was to trigger a crustal shift of thirty degrees south of the North Pole. I am also happy with the use of a meteorite.

Now we need to consider the possibility of a nuclear event positioned to achieve the same result. It certainly eliminates the problem of aiming and moving a large object from out near the Kuiper belt onto the right collision path. A nuclear bomb would actually minimize the energy needed to get the crust moving as compared to a surgical meteorite strike.

It would also be possible to sink such a bomb down through the ice and place it in the bedrock for maximum effect. It could also be possible that by simply hitting the right place will vibrate the crust allowing for crustal release. Allowing the judicious use of a bomb opens up a range of possibilities that would otherwise make no sense to consider.

We had already found that the meteorite option had to be planned. Now it is no longer a meteorite but a nuclear blast that we ourselves could pull off. Obviously there was heavy fallout and radiation that took time to settle down providing this published evidence pattern.

It is also worth noting that there exists cultural evidence of past nuclear events as well as some ambiguous archeological evidence particularly in the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East.

These forms of evidence are very suggestive and extremely out of time and place to be simply ignored. We also cannot bury it by claiming misguided observers. The data collection and evaluation needs to be expanded so that frequency charts can be built up.

A Nuclear Catastrophe In Paleoindian Times?

Introduction. We introduce here a remarkable theory of terrestrial catastrophism that seems to be supported by evidence that is equally remarkable. One of the authors of this theory (RBF) is identified as a nuclear scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley Nuclear Laboratory. The second author (WT) is a consultant. The authors' credentials seem so good that we must take a close look at their extraordinary claims concerning a natural phenomeon that they believe reset radiocarbon clocks in north-central North America and -- potentially -- elsewhere on the planet. We will be most interested in the reception accorded these claims by the scientific community.

The claims. In the authors' words:

Our research indicates that the entire Great Lakes region (and beyond) was subjected to particle bombardment and a catastrophic nuclear irradiation that produced secondary thermal neutrons from cosmic ray interactions. The neutrons produced unusually large quantities of 239Pu and substantially altered the natural uranium abundances (235U/238U) in artifacts and in other exposed materials including cherts, sediments, and the entire landscape. These neutrons necessarily transmuted residual nitrogen (14N) in the dated charcoals to radiocarbon, thus explaining anomalous dates.

Some North American dates may in consequence be as much as 10,000 years too young. So, we are not dealing with a trivial phenomenon!

Supporting evidence. Four main categories of supporting evidence are claimed and presented in varying degrees of detail.

Anomalously young radiocarbon dates in north-central North America. Example: the Gainey site in Michigan.

Physical evidence of particle bombardment. Example: chert artifacts with high densities of particle-entrance wounds.

Anomalous uranium and plutonium abundance ratios in the affected area.

Tree-ring and marine sediment data.

The authors claim that the burst of radiation from a nearby supernova, circa 12,500 years ago, not only reset radiocarbon clocks but also heated the planet's atmosphere, melted ice sheets, and led to biological extinctions.

If verified, the claimed phenomenon would also "reset" archeological models of the settlement of North and South America. To illustrate, we may have to add as many as 10,000 years to site dates in much of North America!

(Firestone, Richard B., and Topping, William; "Terrestrial Evidence of a Nuclear Catastrophe in Paleoindian Times," The Mammoth Trumpet, 16:9, March 2001. Cr. C. Davant III. This off-mainstream journal is published by the Center for the Study of the First Americans, 355 Weniger Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-6510.)

Comment. Thus we add another potential cause of an often-hypothesized, 12,500-BP catastrophe that is said to have changed the world's history. Competing theories involve asteroid impact, volcanism, a Venusian side-swipe, etc.

Sites discussed in the region purported to have been zapped by a burst of neutrons circa 12,500 B.P.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Global Cooling Chorus

I got this list of stories for the last few weeks from the news letter put out by Marc Morano. The chorus of challenges to Global Warming orthodoxy is becoming large and loud as everyone is now chipping in. Obviously a lot of folks were never very comfortable with the extraordinary claims drawn from the not so unusual warming cycle that rose from the late seventies through the late nineties, plateaued through 2007 and has now done a dramatic reversal.

I have already posted that we are likely in for a lousy winter and so far so good. Ontario now sounds like the place I grew up in during the fifties.

In fact the tenor of these items is becoming loud and strident. Some very serious people have finally got up their courage to join in with the other skeptics in calling for the end of the global warming hysteria. And right now, it is looking very convincing that a thirty year warm period has nicely ended and we are now been subjected to the beginnings of a thirty year cold spell.

I suggested last winter that a reasonable interpretation of the events of 2007 was that surplus heat had been delivered into the Arctic as reflected be the unusual wind system and strong reduction in sea ice. The mechanism of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation fills out the fine structure. It seems reasonable that a build up of heat in the Northern Hemisphere slowly shifts or enlarges the heat over the Pacific over many years and is likely linked to the heat retention of the sea itself. It finally discharges into the Arctic and this is the first time it has been properly observed.

Once the heat is well discharged, more normal conditions set in. In fact, we were left last winter wondering why it had cooled so abruptly. This winter is promising to be much worse.

As usual our politicians are still selling the global warming party line while their tame scientists are sneaking into cover.

We did learn that the global heat engine is not up to the job of clearing the Arctic of summer sea ice any time soon. We can expect a major rebuilding beginning this coming summer. And to achieve Bronze Age conditions, it is necessary to establish Bronze Age plant cover in the Sahara.

There are just too many individual reports here that it is hardly useful to comment on them separately. So much for the acclaimed consensus trumpeted by IPCC. And recently IPCC erroneously republished September’s data as for October while announcing a new record high. This is obviously their turn to look like idiots with a rookie mistake.

Planet Has Cooled Since Bush Took Office’ – Scientists Continue Dissenting – Gore Admits 'I've failed badly' - Global Sea Ice GROWS!

Global Warming Theory has ‘failed consistently and dramatically’

Washington DC - The bad news for global warming alarmists just keeps rolling in. Below is a very small sampling of very inconvenient developments for Gore, the United Nations, and the mainstream media.
Peer-reviewed studies, analyses, and prominent scientists continue to speak out to refute climate fears. The majority of data presented below is from just the past few weeks. Also see: U.S. Senate Minority Report: “Over 400 Prominent Scientists (and rapidly growing) Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007” & ‘Consensus’ On Man-Made Global Warming Collapses in 2008 - July 18, 2008 & An August 2007 report detailed how proponents of man-made global warming fears enjoy a monumental funding advantage over skeptical scientists. LINK

Bush The Cooler: 'Planet has cooled since Bush took office' – November 12, 2008Excerpt: On this symbolic date, it seems worthwhile to reflect that the planet has not only cooled since George W. Bush took office – pause and let the significance of that one sink in – but began to chill significantly at almost precisely the moment that we signed the Kyoto Protocol, exactly ten years ago today.

Excerpt: The calendar year isn't exactly over yet, but the people who watch such things --- namely the National Climatic Data Center --- are reporting that through its first 10 months 2008 is shaping up to be the coolest year in the United States since 1997.

‘The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists’
- By Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, formerly a senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center where he received NASA's Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal, and currently principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville) Excerpt: New papers Debunk Warming Fears: The first paper showed how none of 18 IPCC climate models, in over 1,000 years of global warming simulations, ever exhibits the negative feedback we have measured from global satellite data. The second paper revealed new satellite evidence that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Earth's radiative balance by an amount that, when put into a simple climate model, can explain 75% of global warming over the 20th Century....including the slight cooling between 1940 and 1980. Since our previous publications have been basically censored by the news media, and I have now experienced scientific censorship (which I suppose was long overdue), I have decided to take my message to the people in a second book. In anticipation of trouble getting these papers published, I had already started the book awhile is now about 80% finished, heavily illustrated. The working title is: The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists. My book agent is currently scouting for publishers.

UK Astrophysicist: Global Warming Theory has ‘failed consistently and dramatically’ - October 28, 2008
- By Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, founder of the UK based long-term solar forecast group Weather Action and creator of the solar-particle based "Solar Weather Technique" of long range weather forecasting.

Excerpt: Global Warming is over and Global Warming Theory has failed. There is no evidence that CO2 drives world temperatures or any consequent Climate Change. According to Official data in every year since 1998 world Temperatures have been colder than that year yet CO2 has been rising rapidly. The rate of decline of world temperature has got more rapid since 2002; and Arctic ice has increased in the last year : ( Including maps of ice extent: Arctic ice increasing rapidly also see Increase by nearly a half million square miles) The UN IPCC predictions from 2000 have failed consistently and dramatically.

Global Sea Ice Growing at Fastest Pace on Record -- Returns to Levels from the 1980s – Daily Tech – November 7, 2008

Excerpt: An abnormally cool Arctic is seeing dramatic changes to ice levels. In sharp contrast to the rapid melting seen last year, the amount of global sea ice has rebounded sharply and is now growing rapidly. The total amount of ice, which set a record low value last year, grew in October at the fastest pace since record-keeping began in 1979.

Report: Global sea ice area: now same as in 1979! - 'Fastest move in the 30 year history' – November 6, 2008

Arctic Sea Ice Extent: In October 2008, Fastest Ever Growth

(Should we celebrate?) A Depression Would Reduce Carbon Emissions

Excerpt: So, why isn’t all the bad economic news openly embraced as positive news by those that advocate we urgently cut carbon dioxide emissions. Surely, if solutions to global warming are so pressing, the best thing that could possibly happen is a recession if not a depression?

Earth welcomes economic meltdown to stop global warming? – ‘May give the planet a breather from the excessively high CO2’ – October 7, 2008

Excerpt: (Reuters) - A slowdown in the world economy may give the planet a breather from the excessively high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions responsible for climate change, a Nobel Prize winning scientist said on Tuesday.

Gore warns world may face civilization 'collapse' – November 19, 2008

Gore Excerpt: A new study suggests the Mayan civilization might have collapsed due to environmental disasters. […] As we move towards solving the climate crisis, we need to remember the consequences to civilizations that refused to take environmental concerns seriously.

Gore: U.S. needs 'emergency rescue of human civilization' from global warming – NY Times – November 9, 2008

Excerpt: Here’s a new climate change book for your Christmas reading: We’re not scared anymore Mr Gore. A climate change parody by geologist Marc Hendrickx.

Gore laments global warming efforts: 'I've failed badly' - Washington Post – November 11, 2008

Excerpt: When asked about the goal of his movie "An Inconvenient Truth"--to wake people up to an approaching global, environmental crisis-Gore said "I think it's been a failure . . . I feel, in a sense, that I've failed badly."
(By Physicist Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus of Physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, in Princeton, is a fellow of the American Physical Society, a member of the US National Academy of Sciences, and a fellow of the Royal Society of London.)

Excerpt: Mr. Dyson had an argument anyway with the scores of people (like Al Gore) who weren’t present to defend their belief in the dire consequences of global warming. (“There’s no accounting for human folly,” Mr. Dyson said when asked about Mr. Gore’s Nobel Prize.)

Excerpt: “You see the same shift in focus in the public away from climate change questions to questions of economic survival and growth," said Woo, president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

CO2 hysteria continues its slow death – November 20, 2008

Excerpt: at this week's summit of 21 Pacific Rim nations, global warming is barely on the agenda. In its place: the financial crisis. "The interest and focus on climate change has dissipated somewhat," said Woo Yuen Pau, CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Prominent Geologist says ‘Global Cooling is Here’ -- Could ‘plunge Earth into another Little Ice Age!’ – November 2, 2008
– (By Geologist Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Emeritus Professor at Western Washington University, who has authored eight books and 150 journal publications.)

Excerpt: Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain. Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle. A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely.

Excerpt: A detailed analysis of black carbon -- the residue of burned organic matter -- in computer climate models suggests that those models may be overestimating global warming predictions. A new Cornell study, published online in Nature Geosciences, quantified the amount of black carbon in Australian soils and found that there was far more than expected, said Johannes Lehmann, the paper's lead author and a Cornell professor of biogeochemistry. The survey was the largest of black carbon ever published. […] The findings are significant because soils are by far the world's largest source of carbon dioxide, producing 10 times more carbon dioxide each year than all the carbon dioxide emissions from human activities combined. Small changes in how carbon emissions from soils are estimated, therefore, can have a large impact. […] "But this particular aspect, black carbon's stability in soil, if incorporated in climate models, would actually decrease climate predictions."

'Life-long liberal Democrat' Meteorologist rejects 'fear mongering clap-trap about human-caused global warming' -
By Dr. Martin Hertzberg, a retired Navy meteorologist with a PhD in physical chemistry

Excerpt: s a scientist and life-long liberal Democrat, I find the constant regurgitation of the anecdotal, fear mongering clap-trap about human-caused global warming to be a disservice to science, to your readers, and to the quality of the political dialogue leading up to the election. […] The global warming alarmists don't even bother with data! All they have are half-baked computer models that are totally out of touch with reality and have already been proven to be false.

Ski Paradise: ‘Snow-vember’ Sees Ski Resorts Open Early Around The World – November 17, 2008

Excerpt: ‘Snow-vember’ Sees Ski Resorts Open Early Around The World, is reporting bumper pre-season snow across the northern hemisphere with the Alps, Pyrenees, Scandinavia and the Rockies all receiving huge early snow falls that have brought wonderful powder snow conditions for skiers and boarders on the glacier ski areas that were already open, and led to an increasing number of resorts in Canada, Italy, Norway, Spain, Switzerland and the US to open up to a month earlier than planned

South African Scientist Warns of ‘Interference’ By ‘Old Colonial Powers’ – ‘WWF and Greenpeace are not welcome in this country’ – Exposes ‘Climate Alarmism’ November 14, 2008

By Professor Dr. William J.R. Alexander, Emeritus of the Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering at the University of Pretoria in South Africa and a former member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters.
Excerpt: Have you not noticed the growing opposition by African countries to interference in our affairs by the old colonial powers? […] The WWF and Greenpeace are not welcome in this country. Nor are the activities of their South African lackeys. […] Your vigorous pro-environmental, anti-social actions will soon be seen as pressures by a small, affluent white community who have no concern at all for South Africa’s large and growing, economically disadvantaged black communities. […] Many thanks for all those emails urging me to continue exposing this whole climate alarmism issue for what it is.

Africa to pay for Europe's "green policies"

Excerpt: Campaigns to buy locally produced food and travel to local destinations particularly hit out against African products. Consumers in Europe are again growing more environmentally conscious and are willing to use their purchasing power to assist in what is widely seen as our era's most pressing problems - the overspending of energy and global warming. Meanwhile, European politicians have been those pressuring strongest to gain support for the Kyoto Protocol while having totally failed to lower emissions of climate gases in their own countries. In every country, emissions have steadily increased.

Another Dissenter: Atmospheric Scientist says ‘growing number of scientists’ are skeptical of warming fears! – November 20, 2008

Dr. James Koermer, a meteorology professor at Plymouth State University presentation it titled “Inconvenient Science."

Excerpt: Kevin McGuire, a fellow professor at PSU, said Koermer's presentation was "very well done." "I agree that there are a lot of uncertainties," McGuire said about the causes and nature of global climate change. […] During a presentation at the university on Wednesday, Koermer explained why there are a growing number scientists, such as himself, who don't subscribe to the popular theory on global warming. […]Koermer said just because he doesn't think man-made carbon dioxide is contributing significantly to climate change, it does not mean he is opposed to the increased use of renewable fuel sources. […] "Over millions of years there have been periods when we have been hotter than we are today," Koermer said. He added that while humans do have an impact on the climate, it is minimal compared to natural phenomena. He also said that humans are not the biggest producers of carbon dioxide and that the gas is not the most abundant green house gas in the atmosphere. That title goes to water vapor, which is produced by the world's oceans.

Another Dissenter: Astrophysicist says put IPCC reports ‘in the trash!’ – - November 20, 2008

"What I'd do with the IPCC report is to put it in the trash can because that's all it's worth," said Dennis Hollars, who holds a doctorate in astrophysics from New Mexico State University.His brazen pronouncement produced an eruption of laughter among the packed audience. Hollars produced a similar reaction from the crowd when, challenged by Gershenson about the inconsistencies of the data in the graphs he was presenting, he claimed to "not care" which one was accurate. […] Hollars, meanwhile, claimed that carbon dioxide was an insignificant component of the earth's atmosphere and that, rather than being the purveyor of doom it is currently viewed as today, it is needed in order for plants to grow.

Another Dissenter: Meteorologist Declares ‘CO2 has never led to an increase in temperature’ - November 20, 2008

Excerpt: “One of the central arguments of the side arguing that global warming is a natural occurrence was that temperatures were driving the increase in carbon dioxide, rather than the commonly accepted reverse. "CO2 has never led to an increase in temperature, based on historical record," said Robert Cohen, a certified consulting meteorologist.

Scientist rejects UN climate fears as 'simplistic, superficial, and now proven wrong' - November 19, 2008
(By Dr. Dr Jim Sprott, OBE, MSc, PhD, FNZIC, a consulting chemist and forensic scientist of Auckland.)

Excerpt:. John Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama, has done studies on climate models and says they are extremely limited tools in trying to mimic what happens in nature. He said they are unable to reproduce all of the naturally occurring influences and, as a result, give a false picture of what might be causing changes in the environment. […] "Just 1,000 years ago the Arctic was much warmer than it is today so it's interesting that they would use the term conclusively," he said. "Natural variability can account for warming since the Arctic has been warmer before."
Why the EPA should find against “Endangerment” – November 19, 2008

Excerpt: The IPCC’s AR4 was published in the spring of 2007, but to meet the deadline for inclusion in the AR4, scientific papers had to be published by late 2005/early 2006. So, in the rapidly evolving field of climate change, by grounding its TSD in the IPCC AR4 the EPA is largely relying on scientific findings that are, by late 2008, nearly 3 years out of date. And a lot has happened in those intervening three years. • Global temperatures have declined…

Physicist predicts man-made global warming fear bubble to burst in 2008 – November 16, 2008 - Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen, an MIT educated physicist, author of the book An Introduction to High-Temperature Superconductivity, and writer of the popular newspaper column "Ask the Everyday Scientist."

UK Scientist: – ‘Climate change is governed by hundreds of factors, or variables’ Not Just CO2!

By UK Professor Emeritus of Biogeography Philip Stott of the University of London

Excerpt: As I have said, over and over again, the fundamental point has always been this: climate change is governed by hundreds of factors, or variables, and the very idea that we can manage climate change predictably by understanding and manipulating at the margins one politically-selected factor is as misguided as it gets.

We can't think of any other cause, it must be us = 'Prehistoric civilisation' blaming thunderstorms on upset gods - October 31, 2008

Excerpt: 'We can't think of any other cause, it must be us' - This is the depth to which scientific research into climate change has sunk, like a kind of prehistoric civilisation that blames thunderstorms, earthquakes and volcanoes on humanity somehow having "upset the gods". A Canadian study has concluded that we must be causing climate change because nothing else can explain it.

[ Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, formerly a senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center where he received NASA's Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal, is currently principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. ] Spencer Excerpt: I find it astounding that the IPCC has ignored the potential role of natural climate variability in global warming. In any other realm of science we are careful to look for alternative explanations for some phenomenon…but today, mankind is the only allowable reason for climate change. I predict that the IPCC experience will end up being the worst case of scientific malpractice in history.

MIT Climate Scientist Exposes ‘Corrupted Science’ in Devastating Critique - Sep 24, 2008

Excerpt: MIT Meteorology Professor Richard S. Lindzen, confirms how Al Gore and his minions used Stalinist tactics to subvert, suborn and corrupt a whole branch of science, citing chapter and verse in his report entitled “Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions?” His answer: A resounding “NO!”
Full Lindzen paper

Brazilian Meteorologist Scoffs at Notion Mankind impacts climate more than Sun and Oceans - Brazilian meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart
Excerpt: So, given that August was the first month since 1913 in which no sunspot activity was recorded -- none -- and during which solar winds were at a 50-year low, he was not surprised that Brazilians were suffering (for them) a brutal cold snap. "This is no coincidence," he said as he scoffed at the notion that manmade carbon emissions had more impact than the sun and oceans on global climate.

UK scientist: ‘Green’ totalitarianism promotes 1984 style tactics - By Philip Stott, emeritus professor of biogeography, University of London.

Excerpt: The second tactic has been to try to manufacture, in the style of George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four (1947), an all-encompassing external threat against which there must be perpetual war. The prime example of this is ‘global warming’, which has been likened in gravity to the Great World Wars. Such a perpetual threat demands the downplaying of democracy, the legitimising of ‘Green’ totalitarianism, the destruction of markets, and the establishment of Ministries of Truth.

Skeptical Physicist Freeman Dyson: 'When science gets rich it becomes political' – November 19, 2008

Canadian scientist: ‘Scientific assumptions underlying Kyoto are false!’ - 'A revolution in climate change science' since Kyoto – November 18, 2008 (By Paleoclimatologist Tim Patterson, professor in the department of Earth Sciences at Carleton University in Ottawa)

Excerpt: In the eight years since the Kyoto Protocol was first introduced, there has been a revolution in climate change science. What we have learned is that many of the scientific assumptions underlying Kyoto are false. Climate is not naturally constant and global warming is not evidence of human interference,” he insists. “Climate change, including global warming and cooling, is perfectly normal.” Patterson contends that the sun is the reason why the 20th century has experienced some of the hottest temperatures in recent history. “My own research shows that, on all time scales, there is a very good correlation between the Earth’s temperature and natural celestial phenomena, such as changes in the brightness of the sun. The fact that the sun is now brighter than it has been in 8,000 years should have a major impact on climate.” Patterson is not alone in his claims. In fact, a large number of scientists from around the world agree that anthropogenic (human) activity is not the cause of global warming.

'Fixing' global warming called 'another meaningless promise' – Edmonton Sun – November 13, 2008

Excerpt: it's time to start thinking of "fixing" global warming the same way we do "ending" child poverty. Or "settling" native land claims. Or “shortening" medical wait times. Like these other issues, "fixing" global warming has become yet another meaningless promise that all politicians of all stripes will be paying lip service to in perpetuity. One they will spend billions of our dollars "fixing" year after year.

Australian geologist: Climate theory 'like Y2K scam' – November 7, 2008 – (By Prize-wining Geologist Dr. Ian Plimer, a professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Adelaide in Australia.)

Excerpt: The Federal Government's emissions trading scheme has been likened to the ''Y2K scam'' by climate change sceptic Professor Ian Plimer. […] The number of hurricanes around the world was now decreasing, he said. Sea ice in western Antarctica was ''a little bit unstable'' while sea ice on the east of the continent was ''getting bigger''. ''The continent of Antarctica is actually rising.'' Well-known active volcanoes were sitting under Antarctica and ''pumping out exceptionally hot air''. Carbon dioxide levels had been ''very much higher in the past'' and the world was at one of the lowest levels of CO2 in history. ''Most of the emissions come from natural sources, and most of the emissions we don't even put into our calculations.'' Sea levels had risen 130m over the past 14,000 years, or 1cm per year, far from doomsday scenarios, he said. AAP

UK SCIENTIST: 'BBC SHUNNED ME FOR DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE' – Says Warming Science has ‘Gone Awry’ - November 5 , 2008 – UK Daily Express

Excerpt: respected botanist and the author of 35 books, he had presented around 400 programmes over the years and was appreciated by audiences for his boundless enthusiasm. Yet for more than 10 years he has been out of the limelight, shunned by bosses at the BBC where he made his name, as well as fellow scientists and environmentalists. His crime? Bellamy says he doesn’t believe in man-made global warming. […] And my opinion is that there is absolutely no proof that carbon dioxide is anything to do with any impending catastrophe. The science has, quite simply, gone awry. In fact, it’s not even science any more, it’s anti-science. There’s no proof, it’s just projections and if you look at the models people such as Gore use, you can see they cherry pick the ones that support their beliefs.

Study finds Greenland Ice Melt 'Slowed Significantly' – – November 14, 2008

Excerpt: Despite all the talk about moulins, melting, rapid acceleration of ice, van der Wal et al. reveal that the ice movement in western Greenland over the past 17 years has … slowed significantly. […] But when we examine this article, we are most impressed with the results over the 17-year period and the lack of support for the notion that somehow the velocity of ice is increasing during a time of greenhouse gas build-up!

Greenland ice cap 'uncertainty makes future predictions almost meaningless' - -

Flashback: Latest Scientific Studies Refute Fears of Greenland Melt – July 2007 – ‘Greenland has cooled since the 1930's and 1940's’

Aussie Scientist: Human-caused global warming fears are 'heavily biased propaganda' – October 2008 -
(By Atmospheric scientist William Kininmonth is the former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre. He was an Australian representative and consultant to the World Meteorological Organization on climate issues and is the author of Climate Change: A Natural Hazard.

Excerpt: In spite of claims to the contrary, there is no consensus of scientists supporting the findings and recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There exists a large and vocal group of highly qualified dissenters (often denigrated as sceptics, deniers or worse). In the absence of computer models there would be little credence given to the view that the relatively small warming of the second half of the twentieth century was due to carbon dioxide emissions; there would certainly be no credence given to the possibility of irreversible runaway global warming over the coming century. […] The likely magnitude of human-caused global warming is so low that it will not be discernible against the background of natural variability in the climate record.

Video of late great Dr. Reid Bryson on CNBC TV - You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling CO2’

Excerpt: See this
5-minute video of late great Dr. Reid Bryson on CNBC TV - 'You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling CO2' Atmospheric Scientist Bryson's last TV appearance in December 2007. Bryson is a guest on CNBC with host Joe Kernen He died in June 12, 2008 at the age of 88. This clip shows he was lucid and persuasive right until the end of his life. Some of his colleagues tried to diminish Bryson’s skepticism, ... but as you can see from video clip, Bryson was no believer in man-made warming fears. One of the "Fathers of Meteorology," Dr. Bryson, was the founding chairman of the Department of Meteorology at University of Wisconsin (now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences.

Experts call for end of flushing toilets – ‘Proposed new toilet tax!’ – November 19, 2008

Excerpt: AS the world celebrates World Toilet Day today, sanitation experts have called for the end of the flushing dunny to save water and provide fertilizer for crops. Leading health advocates have called for the use of "dry" toilets which separate urine from faeces and remove the need to flush.

Nov 18, 2008: On a cold day, extremely low turnout for DC global "warming" rally - November 19, 2008

Excerpt: Climate Action Now DC rally: freezing, but fired up for change! Excerpt: The rally brought together people from all ages and backgrounds. They had two things in common: they were all freezing, and they were all ready to head to the Hill and press for bold climate action! The blog post above claims that "more than 300" were there, but I'm skeptical that even that many people bothered to show up. In the provided photos, the "crowd" looks pretty sparse--I can see what appears to be at least two or three of the same people in both shots: According to
Weather Underground, yesterday's DC temperature topped out at 40 degrees, a nice round 40 degrees shy of the 1921 record high.

Meteorologist says ‘don’t believe it’ to claims that October was 2nd Warmest – November 18, 2008

Excerpt: This is not surprising as NOAA has become the biggest outlier in recent months. They have thanks to Tom Peterson and Tom Karl a global data base that is worth nothing. There is little or no adjustment for urbanization, land use changes, no adjustment for bad station siting (69% of the 560 US climate stations surveyed by Anthony Watts team of volunteers were poor or very poorly sited), 2/3rds of the stations globally dropped out around 1990, the number of missing months increased tenfold in the FSU and Africa after 1990, and changes in instrumentation like here in the US that Tom Karl himself found produced a warm bias of 0.5F. Not less than 6 peer review studies have shown these issues may account for up to 50% of the warming since 1900. Trust only the satellite. In fact, this October was the 10th warmest of the 30 years of data for the MSU satellite according to UAH with only a 0.167C (0.3F) anomaly instead of the 1.1F (2nd warmest out of 129 years) as per NOAA. Unfortunately satellite data extends only back to 1979.

Roger Pielke Jr.: The Polish Loophole Takes Shape

Excerpt: So the question has been, what will it take to get Poland’s agreement to an EU climate policy package? The obvious answer is to somehow create a loophole for Poland to be exempt from the requirements of EU climate policies. Such loopholes are the Achilles Heel of cap-and-trade, and doom the EU plans to policy failure. U.S. cap-and-traders should take note.

Roger Pielke Jr. : nd here's the Indian loophole

Excerpt: SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Saran, when will India oblige itself to start restricting its own CO2 emissions?
Saran: Even though there is no legal obligation on India in this respect, the Prime Minister of India made a commitment that India’s per capita emissions will at no time exceed the average of the per capita emissions of developed, industrialized countries. We have thus accepted a limit on our emissions and at the same time provided an incentive to our partners in developed countries to be more ambitious. The more significant their reductions of emissions, the lower the limit we would need to accept for our own.

Global Cooling Caused by Warming? Global Cooling ‘may indeed be a consequence of the increasing atmospheric murkiness caused by warming’ - Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog – November 20, 2008

Excerpt: Lawyers Weekly Online: It seems almost impossible that, whatever the debate about the causes of global warming, some people simply refuse to believe that any appreciable change outside normal climatic cycles is actually happening: some even say we are headed for a period of global cooling – which may indeed be a consequence of the increasing atmospheric murkiness caused by warming, but which encourages a way of thinking that fails to address our need to do something about the warming phase if we’d like to see life on Earth remain more or less as it is now.

'Greenhouse theory does not stack up - Wine Mag – November 18, 2008

Excerpt: From Australian and New Zealand Wine Industry Journal (article from'Greenhouse theory does not stack up' - Wine Mag by well known West Australian wine maker Erl Happ - I have a sticking point with the ‘science of global warming’. It’s not global. In fact, it is confined in the main to the Northern Hemisphere.....If ‘greenhouse theory’ were correct, warming would be seen in all places and in all seasons. But, the advance in temperature is mostly in the winter and spring. There is an obvious cause for this and it’s the heat stored in the oceans as a result of episodes of tropical warming that are described as ‘El NiƱo’ events after the most obvious manifestation in the Pacifi c Ocean. In brief, this is the situation as I see it:.....

More from Skeptical Winemaker: LET US BANISH RELIGION FROM SCIENCE! – Skeptical WINE Maker Says

"Let us not confuse environmental religion with observational science. Reliable science explains what we observe. One can not understand the climate system without an appreciation of the in?uence of geography, spatial relations, ocean currents and the physics that drive cloud cover over the tropics. We have managed to banish religion from politics. Now we need to do the same for science." West Australian winemaker.
LINK to download pdf

# #

# # #

Marc Morano

Communications Director

Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) Inhofe Staff

202-224-5167 (fax)