Friday, August 17, 2018

Explaining the High Cost of US Health Care: No Skin in the Game

  • I completely disagree with the idea that universal medicare cannot work.  It has actually worked well enough everywhere else.  The insurance companies are not involved at all. as it should be for a universal need.  Do you pay an insurance company to provide your food?
    My key point though is 'well enough'  That amazingly in Canada provides a plane trip for a rare brain operation handled in one key place.  You simply do not need two places and you have only a handful.
    What is not provided is best service for discretionary aspects, but so what. The easy fix to all that is allowing queue jumping for cash because there is actually slack enough.  Waiting a year for a knee operation is no fun but most are already retired.  Paying to have it now is an option.

    We are now trending toward a massive improvement in human health and in outcomes as well.  This will actually drop the general cost profile.
    A free market is only possible in the USA if the insurance gaming is excluded.  Fifteen percent of that twenty percent is drained by unnecessary admin and insurance profiteering with markups stacked on markups.

    Explaining the High Cost of US Health Care: No Skin in the Game
    Costs are expensive because there is almost no skin in the game. Graft has taken over.

    The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on healthcare: Why Americans Spend So Much on Health Care—In 12 Charts.
    The U.S. spends more per capita on health care than any other developed nation. It will soon spend close to 20% of its GDP on health—significantly more than the percentage spent by major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations.

    What is driving costs so high? As this series of charts shows, Americans aren’t buying more health care overall than other countries. But what they are buying is increasingly expensive. Among the reasons is the troubling fact that few people in health care, from consumers to doctors to hospitals to insurers, know the true cost of what they are buying and selling.

    Contributions to employer-sponsored health coverage aren’t taxed, which makes it less expensive for companies to pay workers with health benefits than wages.

    Generous benefits lead to higher spending, according to many economists, because employees can consume as much health care as they want without having to pay significantly more out of their own pockets.

    The prices of many medicines are hidden because pharmacy-benefit managers—the companies that administer drug benefits for employers and health insurers—negotiate confidential discounts and rebates with drugmakers.
    Price Growth Since 2000

     Hospitals are becoming more consolidated and are using their market clout to negotiate higher prices from insurers.
    Tax Benefits

    Contributions to employer-sponsored health coverage aren’t taxed, which makes it less expensive for companies to pay workers with health benefits than wages.

    Generous benefits lead to higher spending, according to many economists, because employees can consume as much health care as they want without having to pay significantly more out of their own pockets.

    The tax benefit is the country’s biggest single income-tax break, costing billions to government revenue.

    WSJ Misses the Big Picture
    The charts are interesting but the WSJ misses the big picture: There is no incentive anywhere to reduce costs.
    No Skin in the Game
    Where the hell is "skin in the game"?
    • Those covered by Medicare have no skin in the game. And that is precisely why Medicare for All would be an abomination.
    • Those covered under company plans have little incentive to reduce costs. Once deductibles are met, there is "no skin in the game".
    • Lobbyists wrote Obamacare. The results speak for themselves.
    • Congress had a golden opportunity to allow drug imports but failed to act. Drug companies can charge what they want and insurers will pony up.
    • There is no right to refuse service. Hospitals take anyone and everyone whether or not they have insurance. As such, many don't have insurance. They have no skin in they game. Bankruptcy is a way out.
    • Massive amounts of money are wasted to keep terminal patients alive. Why? Because hospitals get paid by insurers. If hospitals didn't get paid, and had they had right of refusal, such nonsense would stop.
    • Obama himself: Obama dictated what had to be be in healthcare plans. They labeled them Gold, Silver, and Bronze. Lovely. Arguably they should have been called dumb, dumber, and dumbest. Why? Millennials and healthy people had to overpay to support everyone else. The millennials dropped out, just as free market principles would have dictated.
    Let the Free Market Work
    Please, let the free market work. Let insurers offer whatever plans they want. Let people buy whatever they want. And let those without insurance pay the price. I assure you, prices will plummet.
    If you need a liver transplant and your insurance doesn't cover it. Sorry, you lose.
    Costs for routine services will plunge because hospitals will not have to pay $200 for one aspirin to make up for the cost of an unpaid liver transplant.
    Insurance plans ought to be able to force treatment overseas if someone is healthy enough to travel. A heart bypass operation in India is 10% of the cost here.
    At a bare minimum, insurance companies ought to be able to offer such plans.
    Personal Experiences - Stop and Smell the Lilacs
    I seriously wonder if chemotherapy is more of a torture than a blessing. I watched my mom die in misery. The cost today is surely thousands of times higher. For what? To prolong someone's life for six months? At what cost? And who should pay?
    When my mom stopped breathing, they asked my dad if he wanted them to try and revive her. He said no. Had he not been there, what would they have done? Why?
    My wife, Joanne, died from ALS (Lou Gerhig's Disease). She was on extremely expensive drugs paid for under Medicare. Note that one does not have to be 65 to be under Medicare. Rather, Medicare picks up all costs on some terminal diseases.
    Did those drugs do her any good? I doubt it. We also need to define "good". If they kept her alive for another three months (which I highly doubt), it was another three months of pain and suffering.
    I sponsored a raffle for the benefit of the Les Turner ALS Foundation. And we put on a economic conference. John Hussman did a generous match of non-raffle proceeds. All told, we raised $500,000 for the Les Turner foundation.
    This was an early post promoting the fund raiser: My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs
    I am very proud of that, and also the amazing support from the Hussman Foundation.
    That's skin in the game. Thanks again John!
    Brass Tacks
    We really need to get down to brass tacks.
    Other countries seemingly have better healthcare because they control the cost of education, doctors fees, etc. They get cheaper drugs from the US than we have here.
    Unless the US wants to control the cost of education, the cost of drugs, the cost of hospital care, and literally the cost of everything related, the US will not compare favorably to other countries.
    Medicare for All cannot possibly work here, even if it "seems" to work elsewhere. I suggest we try the free market, not more Obamaism.

  • 2

Betting on a Catastrophically Cooling World

This does not address the core question of why did the heat content of the Earth decline during the past three thousand years.  My answer to that is simple and it leads directly back to our solution.  The Sahara and the whole Middle East has lost its tree canopy.  It is now mostly abandoned desert.  This actually reflects massively incoming radiation back out into space.  Nighttime temperatures plummet.

This process has been underway throughout the whole Holocene but really got serious over the past two thousand years..    

The really good news is that the process has now started on a path of reversal as best practice has begun recovering those lands.  Merely predation control and tree grooming will do a lot.

In fact fencing of a barren square mile of the Sahel will allow buried root systems to rebound.  After a couple years of that you will have a robust cover.  Then applying the water box tech allows injecting commercial trees able to reach deep for water.  all this will lift the water table as well..

Long term we will return to Bronze Age conditions.
Betting on a Catastrophically Cooling World

By Ed Hoskins

August 1, 2018

According to ice core records, the last millennium 1000AD – 2000AD has been the coldest millennium of our current Holocene interglacial. This point is more fully illustrated with ice core records on a millennial basis back to the Eemian period here:

Our current, warm, congenial Holocene interglacial, although cooler than the Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago, has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years, spanning from mankind’s earliest farming to the most recent technologies. 

Viewing the current Holocene interglacial on a millennial basis is rational. But sadly it seems that, driven by the need to continually support the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming hypothesis/religion Climate alarmists irrationally examine the temperature record at too fine a scale, weather event by weather event, month by month, or year by year.

From the broader perspective, each of the notable high points in the current 11,000 year Holocene temperature record, (Holocene Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), have been progressively colder than the previous high point.

The ice core records from Greenland for its first 7-8000 years, the early Holocene, shows, virtually flat temperatures, an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium, including its early high point known as the “climate optimum”. But the more recent Holocene, since a “tipping point” at around 1000BC, 3000 years ago, has seen temperature fall at about 20 times that earlier rate at about 0.14 °C per millennium.

The Holocene interglacial is already 10 – 11,000 years old and just judging from the length of previous interglacial periods, the Holocene epoch should be drawing to its close: in this century, the next century or this millennium.

Nonetheless, the slight and truly beneficial warming at the end of the 20th century to a Modern high point has been transmuted by Climate alarmists into the “Great Man-made Global Warming Alarm”.

Six inch wide diamond disks guide megawatt of microwave heating for nuclear fusion

Technocracy In Education: “A Continental System Of Human Conditioning”


The real problem is choice. And choice must then lead naturally to mastery. As important we must learn how to teach a wider range of necessary skills as soon as practical. We certainly do this with most physical skills including music.

The first step is to at least push it all downstream in terms of our political world and let local interests have at it.   Recall reading writing and arithmetic did produce Abraham Lincoln and a single minded focus on real estate produced Donald Trump.  Of course both knew far more than they ever let on.

Far too much of our book learning has been used as a memory test.  That is an awful idea.  If you want to teach memory find a better way than memorizing garbage.  Summarizing in three paragraphs what the lesson taught you is effective.  That is what i do here and i have been doing that all along..


Technocracy In Education: “A Continental System Of Human Conditioning”

Source: Tech In Asia

Written By: Dr. Tim Ball July 31, 2018

Dr. Tim Ball doesn’t mention it by name, but what he describes is pure Technocracy at heart. In 1934, the Technocracy Study Course defined education as “A continental system of human conditioning will have to be installed to replace the existing insufficient educational methods and institutions. This continental system of general education will have to be organized as to provide the fullest possible conditioning and physical training… It must educate and train the student public so as to obtain the highest possible percentage of proficient functional capacity.“ ⁃ TN Editor

I write this article from 40-years of direct involvement in education at all levels from kindergarten to postsecondary, in several countries. Overall, it is an unmitigated disaster for the majority of citizens. It only favors a few elites who created it and work to keep it isolated. It is not surprising that Trump, who finally recognized this group politically, also speaks to their educational needs. These are people who barely exist in the minds of professional politicians or those controlling the academic world. The education system that the academics and politicians created doesn’t fit the nature of human intelligence or how that evolves during the growth of the child. It imposes education decreed and dictated by a small group who are escapees from the real world and have no idea what is relevant. This is proved by the comment people make when they say something is ‘purely academic.’ What they mean is that it is irrelevant to the real world. It does not fit or serve individual needs and therefore society loses.

Here are a few of the problems with the educational system they devised.

It doesn’t prepare young people for the real world.
It doesn’t fit the way the mind develops.
It doesn’t allow in even basic ways for the vast range of talents, abilities, interests, or skills found in the human population.
It doesn’t have mechanisms or ways of improving itself.
It operates outside the control of society and only serves to perpetuate itself.
It is designed to make students fail.
It measures success only by those who reach the end, a university degree, but never cares about or investigates those who ‘drop out.’

The truth is only about 10% of the population should go to university or college. The other 90% don’t need to go because what they learn will not prepare them for the real world. In addition, they don’t have the type of thinking required to be an academic. For them, whether it is a university or a three or four-year college degree, it is simply grades 13, 14, and 15. Despite this, Americans spend billions sending their children to university or college. They do this because they are led to believe that this type of education is necessary to ‘get ahead’ in the society.

This came about because America allowed so-called ‘intellectuals’ to take over the educational system. It was effective because, as an immigrant nation of people from lower and middle classes in their home countries, they never had an opportunity to go to university. It was the preserve of the power elite; look at the arrogance and elitism of Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and Yale. As a result, the politicians created a system that is useless for most of the people of middle America. Once established, this system perpetuates itself for the same reason professional politicians reject Trump. If you are a corporate executive or management, you usually get the job because you have degrees. This means if you hire someone without degrees and they can also do the job it devalues your degrees. It is the same reason professional politicians must attack Trump. If he can do the job, it underscores how bad they are beyond the corruption.

There are only two positive things I can say about any system in any country. First, they are so misdirected, misleading, and self-serving that students are successful in the purely Darwinian sense of survival of the fittest. They would succeed, regardless. Second, universities and colleges are a socially acceptable form of unemployment for at least 80% of the students.

Universities and colleges evolved at a time when only a few could afford to attend, and society realized that only a few needed the type of education they provide. The problem is, it is still only a few that need that type of education. In the meantime, societies realized, correctly, that they benefitted from an educated citizenry. Unfortunately, especially in the second half of the 20th century, the socialist thinking took over, and it was assumed that all students had equal abilities, and all should have equal access to the entire system from kindergarten through to college or university.

These are commendable goals, but they don’t fit the reality. People have a wide range of abilities and society has a wide range of needs. The education systems ignore the range of abilities and assumes that all students entering kindergarten will end up in university. This automatically makes failures of those who don’t go to university.

In the US, they tried to downplay this by creating pseudo-universities called three and four-year colleges. In the UK, they produced what they called the ‘new’ universities that are equally a waste of time and money. In most systems, you see a gradual ‘dropping out’ of students along the way. In studies we did in Canada we discovered that barely 50% of students survive first-year university and another 15% don’t make it to graduation. The charade continues because there are far more universities and colleges and the number of academics grown exponentially. This generates thousands of people doing little or nothing. They don’t know how to teach because they are hired on the basis of research degrees and they only publish enough for promotion and tenure. They are not required to have any teacher training at all. They produce volumes of useless research published in journals that only a small specialized group read and adds nothing to human understanding or scholarship. The situation generates many accurate observations.

“A professor is a person whose job it is to tell students how to solve the problems of life which they avoided by becoming a professor.”

“A professor is one who talks in someone else’s sleep.”

“Intellectuals are people who believe that ideas are of more importance than values; that is to say, their own ideas and other people’s values.”

“You can always tell a Harvard man – but you can’t tell him much.”

“Education: the inculcation of the incomprehensible into the indifferent by the incompetent.”

“Arrogance, pedantry, and dogmatism are the occupational diseases of those who spend their lives directing the intellects of the young.”

“Today’s public education system is a failed monopoly: bureaucratic, rigid and in unsteady control off dissatisfied captive markets.”

Aristotle identified a major issue central to any educational process. There is information you have innately as you develop the skills necessary as a human. Then there is information you learn from experience. Aristotle pointed out that you can have a mathematics genius of 6 years old but will never have a philosophical genius of that age. He recommended students go to school until approximately puberty (12 years) then they get out of school and work, travel, to learn about life to return to school when they are about 30. The UK and North American systems not only ignore this natural divide it exacerbates it by dividing it into three segments, Elementary, Middle, and High schools. This isolates students as they go through puberty. Research shows the brain develops very little during this time as all energy is directed to the chemical and physical changes of puberty. No wonder Middle schools are renowned for disciplinary problems. An education system that is a continuum would better reflect the continuum of life.

The Aristotelian system would not work today because the education system is designed around the industrial society and must produce human work units. In too many homes children must be cared for while the parents work. So, it is expedient to keep them in school and teach them subjects that have little meaning. What is the point of teaching history to young people for who a week is forever? More important, as President Trump noted, why force them to take subjects when their talent is automotive repair or some other trade skill.

Some jurisdictions recognize that students have different abilities. The UK system used to distinguish those who were talented with their hands from those who lacked those skills. The problem is a class distinction was involved so that the latter went to Grammar Schools, the former to Secondary Modern. Just the use of the word “Secondary” had enormous implications. Presumably because of claims of inequality or discrimination the UK created Comprehensive schools that moved away from the reality of people and society and ignored the diversity that is society.

In North America, they didn’t consider even this basic separation. All students are put in the same stream and only separated by a system designed to fail those not suitable for the academic’s definition of intellect. I say academics, not universities because the faculty controls the universities by dominating the Senate and ensuring that all executive positions, including Presidents and Deans, are academics. What you have is a prison system run by the prisoners, and the guards are promoted prisoners.

The story about the Mother Rabbit who sent her child to nature school explains the process of designed failure. After the first day, the Mother asked how the day went. The young rabbit replied, it was great we learned to run. After the second day, the answer was the day went great because we learned to jump. The answer on the third day was, it was not good, we learned tree climbing. The Mother encouraged the young rabbit saying you have to experience a variety in life, everything is not as you like. On the fourth day, the answer was more negative as it involved learning to fly. The young rabbit was ready to quit, but the Mother persuaded the child to give it one more try. On the fifth day, the young rabbit went to school and was told she did well in running and jumping so they would not do anymore. However, since she failed in tree climbing and flying, they were going to work on those until she got it right. The young rabbit quit school.

The academics use Intelligent Quotient tests as if they are an indicator of ability. They are not. Worse, they are no measure of wider abilities necessary for most jobs in life. The current system assumes that education will increase your IQ. It doesn’t.

Scores from intelligence tests are estimates of intelligence. Unlike, for example, distance and mass, a concrete measure of intelligence cannot be achieved given the abstract nature of the concept of” intelligence”. ” IQ scores have been shown to be associated with such factors as morbidity and mortality, parental social status, and, to a substantial degree, biological parental IQ. While the heritability of IQ has been investigated for nearly a century, there is still debate about the significance of heritability estimates and the mechanisms of inheritance.

The academic obsession with IQ led to another major mistake that permeates modern education, the failure to realize the difference between knowledge and intelligence. People assume that because people in the past didn’t know something they were not intelligent. The school system assumes because young people don’t know much they are not intelligent. The result is they designed a system that insults the student’s intelligence, and as a result, most of them are bored silly most of the time.

Trump’s ventures with education from turning it back to the States and then on down to the family are an enormous step in the right direction. His creation of vocational schools, apprenticeship programs, and the realization that most people don’t need the type of education created by a small elite whose only goal is to perpetuate their control are a huge first step. Prince Philip summarized it when he said, universities are the only truly incestuous system in our society. Everybody that is in them is a product of them.

If you don’t think schools are just babysitting agencies consider that most parents have no idea what their children are learning in school. Most of them never investigate or even want to know. However, consider what happens when the school sends the children home early the phone rings off the wall.

I am not in favor of government involvement or control of education. What we need is to follow the trend Trump has initiated. Teach all students the basics then create education in conjunction with the business world, both small and large, to prepare programs that have a real-world market value. Let the individual decide what is relevant to them, not what some academic escapee from the real-world decrees. People who want to study art, read classic literature or learn about Shakespeare can and will choose to do so in their own time. With a job to survive in the real world they can afford to do it.

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Qanon - Gmail drafts supported Global criminality

As I posted a long time ago, the pedophilia conspiracy is the sole stable conspiracy.  For that reason it morphed into the NWO as well and all this has been sustained for generations plausibly tracking back to the seventeenth century when it was still possible to draw on older satanic lore.

What now becomes obvious is that the take down of the NWO is only a side benefit of taking down the global pedophile network. All the activity i have been reporting on is aimed first at the pedophiles.   This was a bit of a surprise at first but it is also inevitable.  Read these items just now coming in on the Q feed.

The big shock is that Google operated a clandestine network outside the USA to accommodate the Muslim brotherhood and likely drug traffickers and of course child trafficking. 

We also learn that a program is presently underway shutting down countries involved.  This is well underway although we are looking at the easy ones in which we have been engaged.  Not mentioned in this list is Pakistan and conditions there supplies feudal lords who have serfs to sell.

Q has quite suddenly brought it all up front and center.  This will be the primary cover for the coming mass arrests.  After all only a few were ever political players.  At the same time we now have had two years of visible local law enforcement action as well.  That arresting 50,000 pedophiles also guts the political class is almost unnoticed.  

No wonder ES resigned forthwith as has many others.


Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: e8d9e2 No.2614164 
Anonymous ID: fcdac6 No.2613853
GMAIL Drafts have them terrified, Q-Team!

You sent shock waves to the netherworld!!
Did they ask Combetta for advice?
These people are stupid..
>>Oprah Show
You get to go to JAIL.
You get to go to JAIL.
You get to go to JAIL.
You get to go to JAIL.
You ALL get to go to JAIL.

Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: 4884bc No.2613737 
Anonymous ID: a407ce No.2613023 
New Sara Carter on Somalia and Yemen
relevant to latest Q
Has intel been shared w/ our enemies in an effort to warn them against capture/kill?
How long did it take to locate/kill UBL?
How many times did we locate UBL in the past and stand down orders were given?
Why did the WH put itself in the middle of every OP?
Why did POTUS immediately remove the WH from the CoC military engagement equation?
How has POTUS been able to essentially destroy ISIS within the 1st year of his Presidency but HUSSEIN could not throughout entire term?
What is JB's background?
Muslim by faith?
What is Hussein's background?
Muslim by faith?
What is VJ's background?
Muslim by faith?
Why was the Hussein admin breaking down admin by faith?
Why was the PUBLIC sheltered re: ISIS for so long?
Why was AL-Q deemed the primary adversary vs ISIS?
Do you believe US intel did not 'know' UBL's son was a prominent figure in AL-Q?
If known, no 'live' intel or geo-t to target?
Define C_A regional assets.
Operation Cyclone>> Mujahideen/Afghanistan
>>Aiding anti-Soviet resistance
>>Withdrawal of Soviet troops
Control of $800mm+?
Control of weapons?
Control of training?
>>Afghan Arabs>>Haqqani + Hekmatyar
>>UBL [CRITICAL] Allies?
Haqqani + Hekmatyar relations w/ C_A (in_country)?
Dark to LIGHT.

Q !!mG7VJxZNCI No.158 
"For now we see only a reflection as in a mirror; then we shall see face to face. Now I know in part; then I shall know fully, even as I am fully known."
– Corinthians 13:4-13

"Finally, be strong in the Lord and in his mighty power. Put on the full armor of God so that you can take your stand against the devil’s schemes. For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms. Therefore put on the full armor of God, so that when the day of evil comes, you may be able to stand your ground, and after you have done everything, to stand. Stand firm then, with the belt of truth buckled around your waist, with the breastplate of righteousness in place, and with your feet fitted with the readiness that comes from the gospel of peace. In addition to all this, take up the shield of faith, with which you can extinguish all the flaming arrows of the evil one. Take the helmet of salvation and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God. And pray in the Spirit on all occasions with all kinds of prayers and requests. With this in mind, be alert and always keep on praying for all the saints."
– Ephesians 6:10-18
Q !!mG7VJxZNCI No.156 

Q !!mG7VJxZNCI No.153 
Q !!mG7VJxZNCI No.152 
[Read very carefully]
"Child trafficking victims who’ve spent their formative years servicing the carnal desires of men, often foreigners, who are three, four, five or six times their age. Their madam tells me that many of their customers are western humanitarian workers who’ve come here to help rebuild Haiti after the recent run of natural disasters."
The more you know…
"This is far from a ‘vigilante group’; leading the team is ex-Department of Homeland Security special agent Tim Ballard, perhaps America’s foremost human trafficking expert. "The problem in Haiti is an international crisis,” Ballard explains. “With so many children displaced or orphaned during the recent earthquake and hurricane, recruiters moved quickly to sweep these children up. And the worst part of it all is that in many cases the clients are the foreigners who’ve come here to help, the NGO workers and the so-called humanitarians.”

Q !!mG7VJxZNCI No.152 
[Read very carefully]
"Child trafficking victims who’ve spent their formative years servicing the carnal desires of men, often foreigners, who are three, four, five or six times their age. Their madam tells me that many of their customers are western humanitarian workers who’ve come here to help rebuild Haiti after the recent run of natural disasters."
The more you know…

Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: ab9df5 No.2602749 
Wet Work?
Human Trafficking?
Sharing of ICE/Border Patrol C-INTEL [schedules] to SAFEGUARD? EXIT/ENTRANCE?
Sharing of DOJ 'Where We Stand' investigation(s) & Guide to OVERCOME-DISMISS-WIN?
Transfer of money instructions to LEFT ORGS>>>DOJ Settlements?
Off-book meetings?
Play dates?
Stand down orders?
Non-action orders?
Muslim Brotherhood?
Cross coord w/ UK assets / O-PRO in SIS/UK-P?
Coord w/ foreign actors for payment/money disperse?
Coord w/ AID ORGS for [illegal] plans?
HAM radio instructions if remote-5?
Why did ES make public NSA CLAS tools?
Think XKeyscore + PRISM specifically.
Was such tech kept from 'elected' officials?
Was such tech kept from 'elected' directors?
Why was NO SUCH AGENCY created?
What ADVANTAGES exist to BIG TECH, other ABC off/on agencies, elected officials, CEOs, FOREIGN ADVERSARIES etc. if such information is learned?
What price are you (the PUBLIC) willing to pay?
Did you ever play HIDE-AND-SEEK?

Get The Champagne Out" - The Longest Bull Market Of All Time



 What was missing for most of this secular bull market was reinvestment in the USA. Most of those investment dollars were clearly going offshore not least because of Obama Administration policy initiatives and promotion of the regulatory State.  The corporations were doing fine, just elsewhere.

This also explains just how easy it was for Trump to succeed in Jaw boning the USA economy back into a robust health.  The Global economy has been expanding and will continue to do so because the whole global population is fully monetizing and accessing cell phone banking.   It is the USA which has been draggging its feet through stupid policy not unlike what has been done at times elsewhere.

Recent shakedowns on Tariffs are all about forcing open negotiations in regard to general trade.  Trump happens to be a free  trader  who understands that it takes two free traders to make it work.  The USA has been as guilty as anyone but so what.  Start a trade war so all bad behavior gets confronted..

Get The Champagne Out": In 14 Trading Days This Becomes The Longest Bull Market Of All Time

In many perplexing ways, the market's performance since the Global Financial Crisis has been unprecedented: starting with the deepest recession since the Great Depression, the subsequent bull market has been on an unprecedented run for the past decade, aided and abetted by trillions in central bank liquidity that have pushed global interest rates to historic lows, suppressed volatility and supported the S&P since its March 2009 lows so that there has not been a single 20% drop in the past 10 years, resulting in a 325% cumulative return and 17.7% annualized.

Last September, the S&P's run became the second longest bull market in history.

Then, during this year's January melt up, the S&P500 bull market became the 2nd largest of all time on Friday Jan 26th, when the index hit an all time high of 2873.

And now, Bank of America's Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett writes to "Get the champagne out For US stocks", because we are now just 14 trading days to go until the S&P 500 bull market becomes the longest of all-time, at 3,543 days, on August 22, 2018.

There was some early celebration yesterday, when Apple became the first US company to cross the $1 trillion market cap... but not the first in the world: that honor belongs to Petrochina, whose market cap briefly hit $1.1 trillion in 2007...

... although it may serve as a bit of a warning to AAPL because by 2008, just one year later, the Chinese energy giant had lost $800 billion in market cap, from which it has never recovered. As Bloomberg's Heidi Lun notes, "that was the biggest destruction of shareholder value in history."

Putting Apple's performance in context, DB's Jim Reid notes for the record that US Steel was the first to hit $1bn in 1901. It then took 54 years for GM to be the first to $10bn in 1955, another 32 years for IBM to reach $100bn in 1987 and now 31 years for the latest landmark. For the record Microsoft was the first $500bn company in 1999.

So with China now actively reflating its economy in response to Trump's trade war and - as of today - once again actively managing its currency, is there anything that can end the party? Probably not enough to cause a 20% drop in the S&P in the next 2 weeks, however Hartnett outlines the reason that have made him become especially cautious in recent weeks, starting with:

Peak Profits: the ongoing global PMI deceleration is driving EPS deceleration (23% to 17%).

Meanwhile, Italy-Germany spreads (EU lead indicator), KOSPI/copper (China lead indicator) all suggest further global PMI deceleration in the second half.

Additionally, the recent peak in US auto sales suggests higher US unemployment...

...  while the price action in US housing (lumber prices), hotels (MAR), casinos (WYNN), restaurants (MCD, CAKE) is inconsistent with US consumer boom (HD the ultimate tell).

Then there is Peak Policy: Japan's shift in Yield Curve Control this week was another step from QE to QT, and as a result, central bank asset buying has been dropping sharply: from $1.60 trillion in 2016, to $2.30 trilion in 2017, to less than $0.17tn in 2018 (as described in The Central Bank Party Is Already Over).

Meanwhile, returns outside of equities are already starting to reflect a potential slowdown: 

commodities 4.0%, US$ 2.8%, stocks 2.8% (ex. US tech global equities -0.8%), cash 0.9%, HY bonds -0.2%, govt bonds -1.6%, IG bonds -2.8%; as Hartnett puts it "Profits & Policy consistent with tougher 2018 returns."

Champagne for US tech: Apple 1st US company with $1 trillion market cap (prior
landmarks 2007 PetroChina $1 trillion, 1987 IBM $100bn, 1901 US Steel $1bn)
Still, while the longest bull market of all time appears to be generally in the books, will the S&P also then follow up with become the greatest bull market of all time in percentage, which would happen should it hit 3,498 on the S&P500.

According to Hartnett, there are two critical conditions that need to happen for that one final record to be broken:
  1. An unanticipated surge in productivity growth, and
  2. A speculative bubble from a Great Rotation out of negatively yielding debt into stock markets.
While the first is unlikely, central banks are doing everything in their power to accelerate that one final rotation. In the meantime, the bigger question is whether the Fed itself will not kill what will soon be the longest bull market on record: recall that "bull markets don’t die of old age, they die of recessions and economic slowdowns"... but they also die of excessively tight monetary conditions, in other words a "market event" spurred from the Fed itself.

Or as Deutsche Bank puts it, "every Fed tightening cycle creates a meaningful crisis somewhere."
Until then, here is a chart from the Visual Capitalist counting down the six longest bull markets of the modern era.


Revolving Door: How Security Clearances Perpetuate Top-Level Corruption in the United States


What has changed is that all these folks now have their communications recorded and actively tracked.  The prime reason that these clearances have not been revoked is because all these fine chaps are been actively investigated for serious crimes.   Just because it is obvious, does not mean that we have the whole story. 

Add in the continuing provocation of the so called Mueller investigation whose sole achievement to date has been to act as a stalking horse for Clinton wrong doing and you may have a clue as to what is really happening.

The whole world now understands the depth and even the detail of corrupt practice clearly undertaken by the past administration.  All while pretending to investigate Trump.  Meanwhile we have plus 45,000 sealed indictments out there and  a massive wave of high level resignations.  Those are two completely verifiable facts that ring in the sound of a very large door slamming shut.

Even Judge Jeanine finally got the joke.  No need to cancel clearances when they will soon be arrested for high crimes and treason.  In the meantime the silence has been golden and very welcome.


Revolving Door: How Security Clearances Perpetuate Top-Level Corruption in the United States
President Donald Trump is threatening to take away the security clearances of a number of former senior intelligence and security officers who have been extremely critical of him. Most Americans were unaware that any ex-officials continued to hold clearances after they retired and the controversy has inevitably raised the question why that should be so. Unfortunately, there is no simple answer.

A security clearance is granted to a person but it is also linked to “need to know” in terms of what kind of information should or could be accessed, which means that when you are no longer working as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency you don’t necessarily need to know anything about China’s spying on the United States. Or do you? If you transition into a directorship or staff position of a major intelligence or security contractor, which many retirees do, you might need to retain the qualification for your job, which makes the clearance an essential component in the notorious revolving door whereby government officials transit to the private sector and then directly lobby their former colleagues to keep the flow of cash coming.

 At top levels among the beltway bandit companies, where little work is actually done, some make the case that you have to remain “well informed” to function properly. The fact is that many top-level bureaucrats do retain their clearances for those nebulous reasons and also sometimes as a courtesy. Some have even received regular briefings from the CIA and the office of the Director of National intelligence even though they hold no government positions. A few very senior ex-officials have also been recalled by Congress or the White House to provide testimony on particular areas of expertise or on past operations, which can legitimately require a clearance, though it such cases one can be granted on a temporary basis to cover a specific issue.

The problem arises when former officials use their clearances as bona fides to enhance their marketability for non-clearance jobs in the media or corporate world, particularly when those individuals are criticizing current government policies and behaving in a partisan fashion regarding specific candidates for office. Donald Trump was especially assailed by former officials John Brennan, James Clapper, Michael Hayden and Michael Morell before the 2016 election, all of whom continue to attack him currently, most particularly for the recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the 2016 campaign, Morell, who openly supported Hillary Clinton and is the designated intelligence on-air contributor for CBS news, deliberately linked the fact that he was ex-CIA Acting Director to his assertion that Trump was somehow an “unwitting agent of the Russian Federation” to establish his credibility. That type of activity should be considered abusive and an exploitation of one’s former office.

Morell left CIA in June 2013 and by November was a senior counselor with Beacon Global Strategies. According to the firm’s website, Beacon Global Strategies is a government and private sector consulting group that specializes in matters of international policy, foreign affairs, national defense, cyber, intelligence, and homeland security. Morell may know little about those issues as they have evolved in the past five years, but citing his clearance gives him credibility for knowledge that he might not really possess and also gives him direct access to former colleagues that he can lobby to obtain government contracts.

Former CIA Director John Brennan, who famously voted for the Communist Party candidate for US president in 1976, has also profited greatly from his government service, becoming rich from his board memberships. He sits on the board of directors of SecureAuth + CORE Security and also on the board of The Analysis Corporation. More important in terms of his public profile, he is the “Intelligence Consultant” for NBC News and MSNBC and appears regularly.   

Last week Senator Rand Paul met with President Trump and recommended that Brennan’s security clearance be revoked. He argued that Brennan, Trump’s most aggressive critic, has been using his credentials to provide credibility when he calls meeting with Russia’s president “treasonous” and describes the president as “wholly in the pocket of Putin.” Clearance holders also more generally use their privileged access to “secret information” to leverage speaking and television network pundit fees. In other words, Brennan and the others are using their security clearances to enhance their incomes, monetizing their access to classified information to enhance their value.

It is by no means clear whether Trump will revoke the clearances of Clapper, Brennan, Morell and Hayden. As he is the legal source of all government clearances he has the power to do so. An equitable solution on the clearance issue more generally speaking would be to cancel all security clearances on the day when one leaves government service unless there is a direct and immediate transition to a private sector position that absolutely requires such a qualification. That would be fair to lower level employees seeking a second source of income and it would also eliminate many of those who are merely cashing in on their presumed access. As it is a rational solution it is very unlikely that it will be entertained by either the White House or by Congress.

Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax-deductible educational foundation that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is
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