Editor, Energy and Capital
Monday, November 7, 2011
Israel Will Not Bomb Iran - Barry Rubin
This is an informed opinion on the under the radar conflict been waged between
Many scares have been mooted about suggesting Israel Israel
will stage a preemptive strike against ’s nuclear industry. That option suffers from been obvious. As the writer makes clear, it is not the best
option at all and he outlines much more convincing stratagems. Iran
On top of that it appears that the Iranian centrifuges mysteriously were hacked and effectively sabotaged, obviously in a way to cause lasting damage. That is certainly way more effective than visibly blowing them up in broad daylight.
What we all find difficult to grasp is that Islamic military capacity is always off the shelf with inevitable technical deficiencies in training particularly. The result is that for every advance an Islamic power buys,
is able to bounce two generations technically ahead. Israel
At the same time
clearly implementing a stealth aggrandisation plan to accommodate a burgeoning
population now closing in around eight million.
Thus real man power parity is effectively in place to face of against
even a large Arab army. That it will
match the Israel
in its kill ratio is a given and that must be effectively awful when no enemy
force can actually face down an American force. US
Barry Rubin: Don’t worry,
won’t bomb Iran
National Post Nov 3, 2011 – 4:57 PM ET
By Barry Rubin
The latest war scare arises from a mix of sensationalism and misinterpretation. It’s being reported not only that
may attack Iran, but that
the United Kingdom and
are ready to join in. Such claims appear every few months, largely because of
failure to understand this issue’s political and strategic framework. United States
This policy, which I think is correct, consists of preparing both offensive and defensive forces to act decisively if
ever feels that an Iranian
nuclear strike is likely. Israel
Why is it wrong to expect an Israeli attack in the near future?
is still far from getting deliverable nuclear weapons. There’s no need to act
now. Even if Iran
could build a bomb, it would need time to build one small enough to be carried
on a missile. Iran
Second, an Israeli attack would merely postpone, not stop,
nuclear program. And temporary success entails huge costs: Full-scale war,
potentially nuclear war, would be inevitable once Iran obtained nuclear weapons. Tehran
Third, recent reports — including the new one from the International Atomic Energy Agency — don’t add anything to what
already knows. Israel
Fourth, all the reasons for
are stronger than ever. Iran Israel
cannot depend on
support and faces a worse regional situation. While many newly empowered
Islamist movements aren’t direct supporters of U.S. , an Israel-Iran war would
unite anti-Israel extremists who would otherwise be quarrelling among
Any expectation of
joining in an attack runs contrary to the policy of both countries, which is
aimed at avoiding confrontations. Any expectation of war must ignore these
governments’ actual behaviour and worldview. America
So what’s happening? The answer is obvious.
understandably has plans for a possible attack against if needed
and its military trains for that contingency. Iran Israel
leaks this fact to unnerve Iran
and give Western countries incentives to increase sanctions and work harder to
from getting nuclear weapons. Tehran
On the defensive side,
develops a layered system of anti-missile missiles and other methods to knock
down Iranian missiles. It also benefits from Israel U.S.
early warning stations and defensive missiles being stationed in
to defend Gulf Arab states from any Iranian attack. Saudi Arabia
Israel’s goal, which is being realized, is to make it harder for Iranian missiles to reach its territory, while still avoiding war (but being ready to wage one, if necessary).
Some observers claim that the Iranian regime is so crazy that it will attack
with nuclear weapons the moment it gets them. They also point out, more
correctly, that no defensive system is perfect, and even a few nuclear strikes
would be devastating to Israel . Israel
has a dozen nuclear weapons that can be fired off simultaneously — a goal
that’s quite far away —
can handle the threat with a high likelihood of success. Knocking out two or
three missiles and launching pads is far easier than completely destroying
numerous production facilities. Israel Iran
is nowhere near having a strong enough nuclear strike force to let it attack
without receiving a devastating Israeli retaliation. Israel
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center. His new book,
An Introduction, is being published in January by
Press. Yale University
By Nick Hodge | Friday, November 4th, 2011
I'm pretty sure
already unilaterally attacked . Iran
Their single bomb was launched in 2009. It was called Stuxnet.
But it wasn't a bomb in the traditional sense. It was a computer worm — one of the most powerful ever built.
And it was built precisely to attack large-scale industrial facilities like power plants, dams, refineries, and water treatment operations... from the inside.
This worm in particular was used to attack a uranium enrichment facility in
. Natanz, Iran
The Stuxnet worm crept in, undetected, to a computer component that controlled the rotor speed of the centrifuges and rewrote its code. It caused enough damage to significantly set back
's nuclear program, perhaps by
Stuxnet was so powerful the global consensus is that a government was behind it.
I'll give you one guess who it was...
Some say it was a good thing.
Others see what Stuxnet means for the rest of the world.
If a sophisticated computer worm can be designed to silently infiltrate secret enrichment facilities in
it can certainly be duplicated or modified to do so elsewhere — on any number
of critical infrastructure components. Iran
Take it from Michael Assante, former chief security officer for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation:
"It's just a matter of time. Stuxnet taught the world what's possible, and honestly it's a blueprint."
The Department of Homeland Security has arranged a new training program to combat such a threat — a threat that's more likely to become a reality than most people realize.
You probably haven't heard of Duqu. I hadn't until just this week.
It's the world's newest and most dangerous computer bug. And it's only been around since late October.
It finds its way in through a Microsoft Word document and exploits a hole in the Windows operating system to spread from computer to computer.
You have Windows, right?
A note on the website of computer security firm Symantec had this to say about it this week:
The installer file is a Microsoft Word document (.doc) that exploits a previously unknown kernel vulnerability that allows code execution. We contacted Microsoft regarding the vulnerability and they're working diligently towards issuing a patch and advisory. When the file is opened, malicious code executes and installs the main Duqu binaries.
What does that mean?
If you open the wrong Word document, you could lose control of your machine.
Six organizations have already reported infection in eight countries.
This week, Reuters called in the “next big cyber threat.”
And what about that Stuxnet-being-a-blueprint talk?
Symantec has also said Duqu shares a source code with Stuxnet. That means the creators of Stuxnet either gave the code away, had it stolen, or also created Duqu...
The scariest part is there is no solution. All you can do is try to avoid getting it.
A recent Homeland Security test pitted Red Team (hackers) against Blue Team (pumping station computer operators), each with their own command center.
Red Team had no problem hacking into Blue Team's network and slowing it down. Then it killed its power, turning out the lights and computer screens, causing Blue Team to fly blind. As Blue Team sat helpless, Red Team overran their entire system, took control, and turned on the pumps.
What if those pumps controlled radioactive waste at a nuclear plant? Or a massive oil pipeline? Or caustic chemicals?
As Blue Team's commander noted during the exercise, “There's nothing we can do. We can only sit here and watch it happen.”
Scarier still, we don't know Duqu's intentions.
Call it like you see it,
Editor, Energy and Capital