Thursday, November 10, 2011
IRAN and MAD
Everyone fails to recognize an absolute truth about Islamicism. A true believer accepts that it is his sole mission to forcibly convert all non Muslims to the true way of Islam and all acts of leadership and of one’s life are committed to that purpose.
Any other interpretation is pure fantasy and is laughed at by the true believers. Recall that the Koran is very much a guide book extorting the faithful in the arts of sedition when living in a minority situation. The religion accepts nothing less than submission to Allah and nicely empowers the leadership with divine authority to boot.
Had any of what I just said been untrue, then it would have been written out of the Koran a long time ago. We certainly have done just that in terms of accepted texts in the Bible.
Thus we come to the natural mindset of the Iranian Mullahs. They are dedicated to conquering the whole world in the name of Allah. Not only have they never rejected such a position, they have consistently moved toward that end in setting up and supporting proxies wherever they could. Thus their present rush to capitalize on the Arab Spring in the hopes of grabbing even greater adherents.
The temptation was just too great and it will need strong
action to block it. However, the great
and present threat is the temptation offered for intervention in US . Iraq
We continue to hope that a democratically informed Muslim majority will finally take charge throughout the Muslim world and the outcomes will begin to improve. The Arab Spring is such a hope. I cannot help but think that we are fumbling the hopes and aspirations of the rising middle class in this world, but it is also a case of just too many balls now in the air.
Obama has visibly abandoned
to their fates. The only comparable
gamble was Jimmy Carter abandoning Libya to its fate by pulling the
plug on the Shah without insuring a viable replacement. I am sure Obama would also like to abandon Iran but may
not be allowed to. Never has so much of
this world been completely out of the control of US foreign Policy in such an
apparently reckless manner. Israel
The military will reclaim control in
Egypt and likely in Syria and by trading out faces. The world has become much more dangerous and
the probability of a part spinning out of control has heightened. Yemen
The question outstanding is what will the price be?
Sunday, November 06, 2011
By Walid Phares
My first book, The Iranian Islamic Revolution, published way back in 1986, dealt with the historicity of the 1979 Khomeinist Revolution in Iran. In it, I exposed the Khomeinist regime’s long-term ambitions and revisionist account of events that led to the Shah’s overthrow and Ayatollah Khomeini’s ascent to power in the alleged Islamic “Republic” of
From my observatory in Beirut where Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard (IRG) were growing into a force to be reckoned with in the region and
beyond, I absorbed and digested the thinking and logic of Tehran’s
strategists. Boiled down, that strategy involved sending as many mixed
signals in as many directions as possible so as to confuse opposing forces and
make them tentative. This would allow theKhomeinists to pursue their
global ambitions with minimal opposition. Iran
Tehran formed an alliance with
the Assad regime in .
Next, Hezbollah was established in Syria Lebanon
and later, in 2003, penetrated ’s Shia communities.
Now, Iraq is
about to achieve its most important goal since the inception of the Islamist
regime— a strategic intercontinental ballistic missile arsenal capable of
delivering nuclear and other lethal warheads. Military historians will
undoubtedly debate the ins and outs of the Tehran ’s long trek to join the
nuclear club. What they will find is a Western world that was fooled for
decades. It remains to be seen whether the West’s current leaders will be
able to stop this final phase in Iran ’s jihadist strategy. Iran
National Intelligence Estimate asserted that had frozen its nuclear program.
This led many analysts in Tehran
to suggest that an opening might exist to engage the Iranian regime. The
Bush administration’s approach to Washington
was cautious but the Obama has been far more aggressive in its
diplomacy. Tehran U.S.
peaked in June 2009 when it abandoned principle by ignoring the developing
“Iranian Spring” to garner favor with the ayatollahs. The official
position in Tehran Washington was “we won’t meddle in
internal affairs.” This posture allowed the Revolutionary Guard to
take back the streets of Iran
using force with little or no restraint. Meanwhile, the Iran was
preoccupied with the regime’s progress toward manufacture of a nuclear bomb and
the realization of “Iranium.” Sanctions attempted to delay Tehran’s
nuclear program while policy negotiations took place behind closed doors, but
did nothing to deter the Iranian regime which continued its strategic quest,
with nuclear weapons representing only one element in that strategy. U.S.
In 2007, I published an article in which I argued that the mullahs intended to develop its missile systems at the same time they were developing nuclear weapons. I predicted that the
and its Western allies would
be preoccupied with fissile material while the Iranian regime would be focused
on delivery systems. Each subsequent year, the world has witnessed new
Iranian missiles with longer ranges unveiled in military exercises. The
reach of Iranian missiles has increased dramatically while the international
debate was mired in nuclear material. To lend credibility to this obfuscatory
maneuver, U.S. Tehran’s leaders even pretended to
engage in stressful, back-and-forth negotiations, leveraging the assistance of
friends like Turkey’s AKP Government
to mediate unusual “solutions” to fissile material “issues.” Brazil
During this charade,
real focus was on building the most sophisticated missile systems possible and
protecting them with antiaircraft batteries. More importantly,
the Khomeinists have extended Iran Iran’s
launch radius far from mainland .
Hezbollah in Lebanon, the increasingly pro-Iranian Iraqi government and, at
least for now, the Assad regime in Iran offer potential launch
sites. The Iranians have a presence in Syria Eritrea
and Sudan, and they even
have allies in South America (Chavez’s ). And, last but not
least, Venezuela Iran’s commanders
boasted about their ability to deploy ships off the coast of the United States en route to refueling in
and other possible Latin American safe havens. Venezuela
Experts rushed to respond asserting that the “Iranian navy” was no match for an American naval superpower. True, but the ayatollahs are not seeking a battle on the high seas but to display their ability to strike the
at least once, possibly with nuclear weapons. Basically, the Iranian
regime is seeking the stalemate of mutually assured destruction. U.S. Iran wants to stockpile delivery systems that
can be rapidly outfitted with nuclear warheads, so that the and its
Western allies will not be able to destroy them before it is too late. The
stakes would be too high to attack if U.S. has both the bomb and the
ability to use it anywhere. Iran
Dr. Walid Phares is the author of "The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad," and "The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the
He advises members of Congress and the European parliament. www.walidphares.com