This is another dose of what
passes for politics as usual in the Middle East . The assertions of influence between the
various parties are smoke blowing in the wind and the idea of a real command
and control system is wrong headed. We
are looking at barbaric leadership in practice in which we have at best an
armed truce between factions all grabbing for the same honey pot. Trust is insane and can only apply to an
individual.
We are seeing this with
Mubarak. While he ruled, the treaty with
Israel
lived. Today it presently has the weight
of a piece of paper to be confirmed or rejected by the next regime that
eventually asserts control.
Today we do not even have
convincing individuals in control of anything in this circus. When we look at the dysfunction typical of
Israeli politics, it pales in terms of local Islamic leadership.
Incoming missiles are
inconvenient except they are hardly well targeted. Their casualties can be accepted and Gaza can continue to
accept tit for tat counter fire that is far better aimed. It should not be happening except the present
situation happens to be riding in Israel ’s favor. Its two viable border threats are both
attempting to reinvent their governments and that is going to take a lot of
time. On top of that for either to
launch a war means plenty of warning. At the same time Israel ’s
population has doubled since 1970 and its military capacity has likely
increased four fold however they appear to fumble around in urban warfare.
Sooner or later the Iranian
threat is going to self implode.
The really dangerous calculation
is the one that allows Israel
the opportunity to expel the Palestinians and Egyptians from what we will
describe as Greater Israel. It is
presently a plausible proposition that would have attractive strategic
advantages. One can not imagine the
Arabs been any madder. I do not think
any of that will happen, except facts on the ground suggest otherwise and the Palestinian
position has been steadily getting weaker and is unable to resist a forced
transfer into western Jordan .
In the meantime it seems like the
Iranians and the Turks and Western Liberals even are all sitting around playing
with matches.
Islamic Jihad: Iran ’s
New Favored Proxy
The story that has made headlines in recent days deals with the various
weapons being shot from Gaza into the south of Israel .
As this is written, over 40 projectiles have been launched: Grad Katyusha
rockets, Kassam rockets, and mortars, much of this arsenal supplied by Iran . The Grads
– which are both the most accurate and have the greatest range – are the most
deadly.
Since Saturday, one Israeli man has been killed by a rocket, and four
others have been injured. Damage has been done to buildings, and cars
have been gutted. Children within range of the rockets (some 40
kilometers of the border with Gaza ) are being
kept home from school, and the populace of southern Israel lives with fear.
Scant attention is paid to the fact that some individuals end up going
to the hospital because of anxiety attacks, but high anxiety – perhaps better called
panic – is both psychologically and physically debilitating.
Additionally, as it is important for them to try to stay close to shelters,
residents of places such as Ashdod , Beersheva
and Ashkelon have limited opportunities for
moving about.
Bottom line: Citizens of Israel should not have to live this
way. Israelis in growing numbers are of the opinion that it’s time to launch a
second operation such asCast
Lead. That brief war, involving both air and ground operations in Gaza , took place during
the first weeks of 2009 and dealt Hamas a significant but not fatal blow.
In many quarters, it is felt that the Israel government is not doing its
best to protect its citizens or to ensure deterrence. As a matter of full
disclosure, this writer confesses readily enough to a visceral longing to see
appropriate heads in Gaza
blown off. It’s difficult to witness what’s happening, especially when
one must struggle with the impression that Israeli action is insufficient.
But decisions cannot be based on a visceral desire to do damage,
however valid that desire may be. Before a conclusion is reached
regarding what should be done now, the broader context must be considered –
both in terms of history and the complexity of current prevailing factors.
The Middle East is rife with shifting
inter-Arab/Muslim rivalries, hatreds, and alliances of convenience. Israel , the
only non-Arab/Muslim state in the region, is often caught in regional crossfire
and must maneuver accordingly for its best interests.
As we consider reports of the situation, what stands out is that the
rockets are being launched by Islamic Jihad; Hamas, which runs Gaza, is sitting
on the sidelines – neither actively participating nor attempting to control
Islamic Jihad. This is a new situation.
What is not well known is that Islamic Jihad has links with Fatah.
Quite simply, Hamas and Fatah are rivals, while Fatah and Islamic Jihad
function, at least covertly, as allies. (There are reports within the
last few days of Fatah people joining the Islamic Jihad forces.)
A look backwards explains this situation: During the time of the Iranian
Revolution, Yasser
Arafat – functioning as head of both the PLO and Fatah, which were
essentially one and the same then – provided assistance to the revolutionary
forces via both training and weaponry. When the Shah fell, Arafat emerged
as one of the first supporters of the new radical Islamic Iranian regime; he
entered Tehran
jubilant.
The Ayatollah
Khomeini, who had sparked that revolution from outside of Iran, was so
pleased with Arafat that he gave to the PLO as its headquarters the building
that had housed the Israeli mission to Iran during the time of the Shah. A
special bond then evolved between Arafat and Khomeini. It was a honeymoon
of short duration, as a displeased Arab world (reflecting Sunni-Shia tensions)
delivered Arafat a message: Us or Iran .
But it was during that brief period in which Arafat and Khomeini bonded
that the Islamic Jihad emerged. Until then the PLO had been a largely
secular nationalist movement. With a melding of perspectives, a Palestinian
nationalist (Islamic) religious movement was possible.
Today we are looking at shifting alliances and an exceedingly complex
situation:
Over a period of time, Iran
has strengthened Hamas for its own purposes. Iranian leaders, mindful of
the possibility that they might eventually be attacked by Israel, wanted a
strong Hamas that would be able to generate a military distraction at Israel ’s
border.
But now Hamas has fallen out of favor with Iran .
There is, first, the fact that Iran
had not signed off on the Shalit deal; Hamas aroused Iran ’s ire by acting independently
and in defiance of its orders. What is more, according to reliable sources,
covert understandings reached between Hamas and Israel transcended the Shalit deal.
But there are further complications, some of which have been alluded to
by analysts in the course of the Israel-Hamas deal on Shalit.
Whatever the case, Iran
is well aware that a rapprochement of Turkey ,
Egypt
and Hamas would be at its expense.
Once Iran
decided it could no longer trust Hamas to act on its behalf, the time had come
to activate Islamic Jihad. And Voila! the rocket attacks.
This report was most certainly not written to make a case for Israel
holding to the military status quo. It may be that in the end the
Israeli government’s obligation to protect its citizens and develop strong
deterrence mandates significant action in Gaza
without delay.
What has been demonstrated here, however, is the
absolutely complexity of the issues involved in making that decision.
Incredibly, with all of the above, there are still other factors at play.
Consider:
Any Israeli military action in Gaza
right now will strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood position in Egypt . But it is,
indubitably, in Israel ’s
best interest to strengthen Egypt ’s
military regime, which would be the most stable and the most likely to retain
the peace treaty with Israel .
Egyptian elections are slated to be held in November. Could it be that a major
action in Gaza
should wait until after those elections?
A purported “cease fire” with Islamic Jihad, which is being discussed
(a planned escalated action by Israel
has been table for the moment), is patently a sham. The terrorists will
start firing whenever they choose. However, that “cease fire” is being
negotiated by Egypt ’s
military leaders. In the weeks before that election, is it prudent to
give them the edge, and allow them the prestige of showing they are players of
significance in the region?
Were Israel to
undertake a major military mission in Gaza ,
its primary target would be the ruling power, which is Hamas. But what
are the consequences of taking out or severely weakening Hamas at this
juncture? At one time, a decision to do so might have seemed a “no-brainer.”
But the situation has shifted.
If background information is correct, and Hamas has fallen out of favor
with Iran , to be replaced by
Islamic Jihad, it may be that Hamas is no longer the worst of what must be
dealt with in Gaza .
It is possible that taking down Hamas would open the door for an even more
virulent terrorist group to gain control. If the military wins in Cairo , and Hamas falls under its sway, it certainly will
not become an ally of Israel ,
but it might be a great deal less problematic than an Islamic Jihad under the
sway of Iran .
This brings us, then, full circle, to the issue of a Fatah-Islamic
Jihad alliance. PA President Mahmoud Abbas, sitting in Ramallah, may
project a far more moderate stance than do the Islamic leaders in Gaza . But in the
end, his goal of the destruction of Israel is no different. Any
thinking person who had until recently still held out hope against hope that
Abbas in the end would act for peace has certainly been disabused of this notion
by his UN gambits.
Over and over we have heard about a Hamas-Fatah unity government. In
spite of the fact that it would have served purposes for both parties, it has
never held because of the inherent rivalry and animosity between them.
But if Islamic Jihad, with which Fatah has a history of alliance, were
the major factor in Gaza ?
What would be the PA stance then?
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