I
am not nearly so optimistic here. There is a lot of volcanic
activity about which we still have little knowledge. We really are
only learning. This will at least help.
What
really happens when we have a huge eruption in the Aleutians? The
other big event generators are all pretty well on the Equator and the
potential for not generating a strong signal in the ice exists. We
need to separate the signals and that requires some serious events
there.
Otherwise
this is a good beginning and will work well for the past several
thousands of years. What we need now is application to see if this
works well enough to be confirmed on some level.
Chemistry
trick kills climate controversy
by Staff Writers
Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX) Feb 14, 2013
Volcanoes
are well known for cooling the climate. But just how much and when
has been a bone of contention among historians, glaciologists and
archeologists. Now a team of atmosphere chemists, from the Tokyo
Institute of Technology and the University of Copenhagen, has come
up with a way to say for sure which historic episodes of global
cooling were caused by volcanic eruptions.
The
answer lies in patterns of isotopes found in ancient volcanic sulfur
trapped in ice core, patterns due to stratospheric photochemistry.
Their mechanism is published in the highly recognized journal PNAS.
Better
history through atmospheric chemistry
Matthew Johnson is an associate professor at the Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen where he studies chemical mechanisms in the atmosphere. He is thrilled at the prospect of giving a more precise tool to historians studying cold spells.
"Historical
records are not always so accurate. Some may have been written down
long after the fact, or when a different calendar was in use by a
different culture. But the chemistry does not lie", says
Johnson.
Method
reads height by analyzing effect of sunshine
Powerful volcanoes can shoot gases through the atmosphere and high into the stratosphere where it can affect climate globally for a year or more. Less powerful eruptions can also have powerful impacts, but only locally, and for shorter times. And here's the trick. High plumes spend longer in the harsh sunlight of the stratosphere, and that changes the chemical signature of the sulfur in the plume. The balance of various isotopes is changed according to very precise rules, explains Mathew Johnson.
"Using
our method we can determine whether a given eruption was powerful
enough for the plume to enter the stratosphere affecting global
climate. If we can find material from ancient eruptions it can now be
used to give an accurate record of global volcanic events extending
many hundreds of thousands of years back in time.", says
Johnson.
Clue
to fires found in ice
Strangely, the best place to look for traces of the fiery events is in ice. Tracking climate history is performed on cores drilled from the ice shields of Greenland and Antarctica. Much like tree rings, the snows of each year is compacted into a layer representing that year. As you go further down in the borehole, you descend into deeper history.
If
volcanic material shows up in a layer, you know there was an eruption
in that year. Using the method developed by Johnson and his
colleagues it is now possible to analyze exactly how powerful a given
eruption was.
"With
the sulfur isotope method, we now have a way to prove whether a given
eruption was so explosive that it entered the stratosphere, affecting
global climate and civilizations, or, whether a given eruption was
confined to the troposphere and local in its effects" says
Johnson and goes on: "There are many controversial eruptions.
"The
Mediterranean island of Santorini blew apart and caused the end of
the Minoan culture. But there is a huge debate about when exactly
this occurred. 1601 was the 'year without a summer' - but nobody
knows where the volcano was that erupted. There's debate over whether
there was an eruption on Iceland in 527, or 535, or 541. The sulfur
isotope trick is a definite method to solve debates like this and get
the most information out of the ice core records" Says Matthew
Johnson.
Global
collaboration crucial to get results
Denmark has absolutely no volcanoes. So revealing the mechanism required the very different talents of two groups practically on opposite sides of the globe, explains Johnson.
"The
Tokyo Institute of Technology specializes in analysis of the patterns
of sulfur isotopes found in samples in nature, and was able to
synthesize the isotopically labelled samples. The University of
Copenhagen has a strong group in atmospheric chemistry and
spectroscopy; the laboratory measurements were carried out in
Copenhagen. Together we were able to do the experiments and build the
atmospheric chemical model that demonstrated the stratospheric
photoexcitation mechanism", concludes Johnson.
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