Friday, June 6, 2014

Earthquake Prediction Insight

This is actually quite useful.  He has identified a very small time zone in which the combined tidal deformation maximizes and allows large quakes to be triggered..  This becomes important in serious Earthquake country simply be cause it can be almanaced and even properly prepared for even if we merely establish these as days for training drills.

Everyone wants at least this much warning.  For the citizen it becomes a good time to spend in the park.  That is a small price to pay  for the many false alarms for every actual event.

What this is telling us though is that survivable earthquakes are much more random but are still survivable, while the dangerous ones need to be triggered by the tidal surge.  That is hugely valuable information to have on hand.

David Nabhan claims there is a pattern as to when earthquakes occur and that they can be predicted

Quakes happen during either a full or new moon - and within three hours of dawn or dusk

Earthquake prediction has been almost a taboo field of study for the United States Geological Survey and say such findings are nonsense

PUBLISHED: 16:06 GMT, 1 June 2014

For decades, scientists have tried to perfect methods and analyze data in a bid to predict earthquakes before they happen and potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives.

However, an author living in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania claims the answers are in plain sight and David Nabhan has now written a book about his remarkable findings.

Mr Nabhan, a former science teacher from California, became interested in earthquakes.

He was in charge of the emergency preparedness plan at the school where he worked.

he has found the key to accurately predicting when an earthquake will strike and has suggested there is a pattern between them

He says he noticed every earthquake happened at dusk or dawn.

'I realized this sort of conscience doesn’t happen in science. These dawn and dusk quakes during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast,' he said. 

'All six great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the 30s, all of them, dawn or dusk quakes', he told CBS Pittsburgh.

Mr Nabhan says that it is the 'conjoined lunar and solar gravitational tides,' that causes the quakes.

'Just imagine the muscle required to move our oceans around every day. Our fractured fault lines are not immune to this power,' he said. 

The prevailing view has placed seismic forecasting in the realm of near impossibility, but Mr Nabhan insists that a number of facts infer quite the opposite.

His book  presents a persuasive and open-minded inquiry into compelling clues and data that have been downplayed or ignored for almost two centuries, connecting hundreds of scientific studies with a stunning series of historic seismic events on the US West coast during the 20th century. 

Remarkable evidence gives a thought-provoking overview of how this topic has remained in scientific limbo for so many centuries, culminating in a list of hours-long higher probability windows for seismicity into the future.

Mr Nabhan lists the plain spoken reasons how and why it should be realized that it is plausible, with some degree of accuracy, to forecast the next ground-shaking catastrophe. 

Mr Nabhan says that there has never been a new idea in science that wasn’t accepted without a fight and claims the next earthquake will happen on July 12 and September 9, between 4:45 to 7:55 a.m. or p.m.

In his book, Mr Nabhan lists every tremor powerful enough to have caused fatalities within a 70 mile radius of Los Angeles' city center, struck Southern California between 1933 and 1994.  

He states that every one of them occurred either within a tight 3 hour window at dawn or a corresponding time interval at dusk. 

Two thirds of those events also took place not only either at dawn or dusk, but within 36 hours of the precise instant of new or full moon phases. 

Pattern: Two thirds of recent earthquake events took place not only either at dawn or dusk, but within 36 hours of the new or full moon phases

The great quakes on the U.S. West Coast north of Southern California also fit this historic pattern.

The Great San Francisco Earthquake (1906) clocked in at 5:12 AM; Loma Prieta (1989) struck almost precisely 12 hours later:  5:04 PM.  

Anchorage was destroyed on Good Friday, 1964 at 5:36 PM--47 minutes away from the exact moment when the Moon entered the greatest extent of it's fullness. 

The last Big One on the Southern San Andreas (1857) hit Fort Tejon in the early morning. 

The May 2, 1996 magnitude 5.4 Seattle earthquake, the largest in that city’s history since 1965, rocked the Puget Sound area no more than 9 minutes outside the time and date forecasted in David Nabhan’s first book

Mr Nabhan suggests there is fairly solid evidence to support the hypothesis that solar and lunar tides working in tandem might actually have a hand in at least helping to trigger tremors on the West Coast.

However, U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones is more wary about predicting such earthquakes.

'There’s a very slight correlation. Not enough to predict any earthquake out of it,' she told CBS Los Angeles said. 

'People try to make patterns out of anything that scares them. We haven’t found anything that looks different before a big earthquake than other times. 

We get enough people sending us predictions. The slug trail lady who used to go out in her driveway and map out the slug trails in the morning and use that to predict where the next earthquake was going to happen.'

Asked about earthquake weather, Jones said, 'The reality is earthquakes happen 5 to 10 miles deep in the earth and surface weather doesn’t affect anything at that depth.'

Asked what causes a quake to start and stop, she said, 'I don’t know. We have figured out that earthquakes are happening at much lower stresses, and now we’re trying to understand the mechanisms that let them happen.'

No comments: