The global warming narrative never really flew as a scientific argument simply because the level of known temperature variation in the Holocene simply set the bar way too high. What warming actually occurred turned out to be a one off against a background of benign change.
The clique in charge of the narrative was reduced to slandering opposition, a sure sign of fraudulent intent.
Now we have Al Gores last kick at the can and it is more of the same as if nothing has changed at all. This is a sad case of a little bit of tentative science in the wrong hands.
A global imitative to recover all forests to a healthy managed state would be wonderfully productive and would naturally restore Bronze Age climate conditions world wide. That would be welcome and employ 100 billion people....
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Bjorn Lomborg: ‘Gore still trying to scare you into saving the world’ – ‘Sequel Misses a Few Inconvenient Facts’
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/07/28/bjorn-lomborg-gore-still-trying-to-scare-you-into-saving-the-world-sequel-misses-a-few-inconvenient-facts/
Lomborg: Gore’s prescriptions—for New York and the
globe—won’t work. He claims the answer to warming lies in agreements to
cut carbon that would cost trillions of dollars. That would not have
stopped Sandy. What New York really needs is better infrastructure: sea
walls, storm doors for the subway, porous pavement. These fixes could
cost around $100 million a
year, a bargain compared with the price of international climate
treaties. Mr. Gore helped negotiate the first major global agreement on
climate, the Kyoto Protocol. It did nothing to reduce emissions (and
therefore to rein in temperatures), according to a March 2017 article in
the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management...By 2030 the
Paris climate accord will cost the world up to $2 trillion a year,
mostly in lost economic growth, according to the best peer-reviewed
energy-economic models. It will remain that expensive for the rest of
the century. This would make it the most expensive treaty in history.
'The global economy is far from ready to replace fossil fuels with solar and wind. The International Energy Agency, in its 2016 World Energy Outlook, found that 0.6% of the world’s energy is supplied by solar and wind. Even with the Paris accord fully implemented, that number would rise only to 3% in a quarter-century. In part because of activists like Mr. Gore, the world remains focused on subsidizing inefficient, unreliable technology, rather than investing in research to push down the price of green energy.'
'The global economy is far from ready to replace fossil fuels with solar and wind. The International Energy Agency, in its 2016 World Energy Outlook, found that 0.6% of the world’s energy is supplied by solar and wind. Even with the Paris accord fully implemented, that number would rise only to 3% in a quarter-century. In part because of activists like Mr. Gore, the world remains focused on subsidizing inefficient, unreliable technology, rather than investing in research to push down the price of green energy.'
The former vice president has a poor record. Over the past 11 years
Mr. Gore has suggested that global warming had caused an increase in
tornadoes, that Mount Kilimanjaro’s glacier would disappear by 2016, and
that the Arctic summers could be ice-free as soon as 2014. These
predictions and claims all proved wrong.
“An Inconvenient Truth” promoted the frightening narrative that
higher temperatures mean more extreme weather, especially hurricanes.
The movie poster showed a hurricane emerging from a smokestack. Mr. Gore
appears to double down on this by declaring in the new film’s trailer:
“Storms get stronger and more destructive. Watch the water splash off
the city. This is global warming.”
This is misleading. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—in its Fifth Assessment Report,
published in 2013—found “low confidence” of increased hurricane
activity to date because of global warming. Storms are causing more
damage, but primarily because more wealthy people choose to live on the
coast, not because of rising temperatures.
Even if tropical storms strengthen by 2100, their relative cost likely will decrease. In a 2012 article for
the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers showed that hurricane
damage now costs 0.04% of global gross domestic product. If climate
change makes hurricanes stronger, absolute costs will double by 2100.
But the world will also be much wealthier and less vulnerable, so the
total damage is estimated at only 0.02% of global GDP.
In the trailer, Mr. Gore addresses “the most criticized scene” of his
previous documentary, which suggested that “the combination of
sea-level rise and storm surge would flood the 9/11 Memorial site.” Then
viewers are shown footage of Manhattan taking on water in 2012 after
superstorm Sandy, apparently vindicating Mr. Gore’s claims. Never mind
that what he actually predicted was flooding caused by melting ice in
Greenland.
More important is that Mr. Gore’s prescriptions—for New York and the
globe—won’t work. He claims the answer to warming lies in agreements to
cut carbon that would cost trillions of dollars. That would not have
stopped Sandy. What New York really needs is better infrastructure: sea
walls, storm doors for the subway, porous pavement. These fixes could
cost around $100 million a year, a bargain compared with the price of international climate treaties.
Mr. Gore helped negotiate the first major global agreement on
climate, the Kyoto Protocol. It did nothing to reduce emissions (and
therefore to rein in temperatures), according to a March 2017 article in
the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Undaunted, Mr.
Gore still endorses the same solution, and the new documentary depicts
him roaming the halls of the Paris climate conference.
By 2030 the Paris climate accord will cost the world up to $2
trillion a year, mostly in lost economic growth, according to the best
peer-reviewed energy-economic models. It will remain that expensive for
the rest of the century. This would make it the most expensive treaty in
history.
And for what? Just ahead of the Paris conference, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change estimated that
if every country fulfills every promised Paris carbon cut between 2016
and 2030, carbon dioxide emissions will drop by only 60 gigatons over
that time frame. To keep the temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius,
the world must reduce such emissions nearly 6,000 gigatons over this
century, according to the IPCC. A “successful” Paris agreement wouldn’t
even come close to solving the problem.
Mr. Gore argues that the Paris approach pushes nations and businesses
toward green energy. Perhaps, but the global economy is far from ready
to replace fossil fuels with solar and wind. The International Energy
Agency, in its 2016 World Energy Outlook, found that 0.6% of the world’s
energy is supplied by solar and wind. Even with the Paris accord fully
implemented, that number would rise only to 3% in a quarter-century.
In part because of activists like Mr. Gore, the world remains focused
on subsidizing inefficient, unreliable technology, rather than
investing in research to push down the price of green energy. Real
progress in Paris could be found on the sidelines, where philanthropist
Bill Gates and others, including political leaders, agreed to increase
spending on research and development. This is an important start, but
much more funding is needed.
Mr. Gore declares in his new film that “it is right to save
humanity.” No argument here. But is using scare tactics really the best
way to go about it?
Mr. Lomborg is the president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center
and the author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist” and “Cool It.”
