Monday, December 24, 2018

I Figured Out Elon Musk, SpaceX and Starlink

What this item brings home is the sheer profitability available fore reusable components and that has now been achieved. It also establishes the size of the ready market obviously stifled by lack of launch space.  That has now changed.

We can go full out to populate the skies with 5G satellites eliminating the need for an extensive ground build out.  It isthe speed that is important.

That means it will now be soon possible to build out a proper space station and i would like to see an atmosphere bubble up there with a central axis hub to hold suspension lines.

All  this makes a future EMP event highly survivable and more important it allows swift recovery.  We can suddenly get there.

I Figured Out Elon Musk, SpaceX and Starlink

I believe I have a far better model for the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch business. it takes into account the actual state of the proven improvement in reusability. I took the financial disclosure for 2018, where SpaceX made $2.5 billion in revenue and did not have much profit. SpaceX will be able reuse the first stages four times through most of 2019. Up to September 2018, SpaceX was only reusing first stages once. SpaceX in December landed a first stage they used three times. SpaceX will also be able to reuse the $6 million nose cone farings which have been made waterproof.

SpaceX will get higher value manned missions to the Space station starting in mid-2019. SpaceX will have higher value SpaceX Falcon Heavy missions and more military and other government missions.

I believe the increased reuse and more high value missions translates into $550 million to $900 million in increased profits.

The SpaceX Starlink satellite network will enable SpaceX to rapidly increase revenue. They will get more than double the annual NASA budget. They only need to launch the first 1700 satellites to service the northern hemisphere.

This is because there is a lot of value to finance companies being able to get stock exchange information faster and to be able to place orders faster. The value to a stock trader is at many points in a year there will be widely traded stocks which will begin rapid share price movements up or down. The trader will be constantly adjusting the conditions when he buys or sells. When conditions in terms of stock price or rapid movement exist then the traders will want to buy or sell. However, they will be in a race with other traders. It is like a Black Friday shopping rush for door buster specials.

The Starlink satellites will help speed the connections between every financial city in the world. The speed of light in vacuum is almost twice as fast as light in glass fiber.

The New York and Chicago financial exchanges paid $100 million per year for microwave connections to reduce the delays by 3 milliseconds.Starlink will be able to do far better between cities more than 2000 miles apart.

There would be 190 combinations of pairs of the top 20 financial cities. If the top $100 million per year was paid by the top 20 cities, then this would be $19 billion per year.

Starlink will also replace a lot of the fiber capacity buildout needed for 5G wireless networks. This would be up to $150 billion for the US alone for seven years. SpaceX will make over $10 billion per year from internet backhaul.

The vast money that can be made from this means that Elon Musk can fund it by selling discounted orders to the financial companies. He just has to remove some uncertainty by getting a few dozen satellites deployed and proving the free space laser links. 

Elon Musk was interviewed by 60 Minutes in order to understand his psychology. Why does Elon have reckless tweets? Why is he fighting the SEC?

I believe the better and more predictive answers about Elon Musk are in the lyrics of the song The Man by the Killerz.

You can literally go through almost all of the lyrics and see what Elon was thinking as he was being interviewed by CBS.

You need to listen to the song The Man and then watch the CBS interview.

Nothing can break, nothing can break me down
I got skin in the game
I got a household name
I got news for you baby, you’re looking at the man

Only the lines I got gas in the tank and USDA certified lean do not apply.
Elon drives electric cars. He only has charged batteries.
Elon has put on quite a bit of weight.

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