We do think that the sunspot cycle is an important driver for climate change. The actual measured heat change appears small, but this is the sun and the bulk can be though of as a steady state phenomena. A tenth of one percent variance in the ocean can flood river valleys as a natural comparable.
It also drive variance in cosmic ray flux as well. Thus our clouds get seeded. What is true is that this sunspot decline is notable and the last interlude coincides with the Little Ice Age.
Because of it, i do consider Global heat content to be volatile downward and capable of delivering some nasty weather and clod winters which coincides with the reversal of previous climate highs.
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Current Solar Cycle Among Weakest On Record. Potentially Cloud-Seeding Cosmic Radiation Near Highest Level Since 1950s
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin).
If we speak of an average of the last 23 cycles in the months of the minimum, our only significant energy source at the center of the solar system was below average active last month as well.
The sunspot number (SSN) was 9.1, which was thus only 42% of the average of the cycles for month no. 125. Some cycles (No. 21, 18, 16, 15, 8 ) were already completed in month no. 125.
What are the effects? The total radiation (TSI for total solar irradiance) is only moderately influenced:
Fig. 2: The total solar irradiance at the Earth’s distance since the end of 2003, when probe’s mission began. Source.
Since the maximum, we have seen a decrease of about 1.5 W/m². On the
ground this drop decreases to 25% because the earth is not perpendicular
to the sun (like the satellite’s sensor) and it rotates. This leaves
only a boost of 0.38W/m² in effective radiant power, or 0.1%, which is
comparatively little.
Another magnitude may have more influence: During high activity, the sun keeps the galactic cosmic radiation (actually less electromagnetic radiation, but more particles) away from the interior of the solar system. It performs this shielding less effectively with reduced solar activity.
Fig. 3: Galactic radiation since the 1960s. The series has been measured in Moscow. Source. Note: Upper peaks show strong cosmic radiation.
Since the beginning of the 2000s, a decrease of up to 16% compared to
the 90s can currently be seen. Also in the maximum of SC24 around 2014
cosmic rays were about 8% stronger than in the maxima since 1980.
We had reported about the connections, which Hendrik Svensmark postulates, in the book and also in the blog (last here) several times.
Next we look at the comparison of the cycles among each other:
Fig. 4: The sunspot activity of the cycles in comparison. The numbers in the diagram are obtained by summing the monthly differences between the observed SSN and the mean (blue in Fig.1) up to the current cycle month 125.
Also the coming cycle 25 – with a probable start in August 2020 (here
we showed how we came to this view) – will again be below average with a
high degree of certainty. The peak phase of solar activity from 1935 to
about 2005 (SC 17…SC23) is over.
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin).
If we speak of an average of the last 23 cycles in the months of the minimum, our only significant energy source at the center of the solar system was below average active last month as well.
The sunspot number (SSN) was 9.1, which was thus only 42% of the average of the cycles for month no. 125. Some cycles (No. 21, 18, 16, 15, 8 ) were already completed in month no. 125.
Fig. 1: The monthly sunspot activity
of the current solar cycle (SC 24) since December 2008 (red) compared to
the mean value of all previously systematically observed cycles since
the beginning of SC 1 in March 1755 (blue) and the very similar SC 5
(black).
Figure 1 clearly shows that the latest cycle was quite below-normal,
especially at the beginning and after the second peak which had an SSN
of over 140 towards the end. Since February 2014 (the maximum of the
entire cycle 24 with SSN = 146 in cycle month 63), it only reached 2/3
of the average activity.What are the effects? The total radiation (TSI for total solar irradiance) is only moderately influenced:
Fig. 2: The total solar irradiance at the Earth’s distance since the end of 2003, when probe’s mission began. Source.
Another magnitude may have more influence: During high activity, the sun keeps the galactic cosmic radiation (actually less electromagnetic radiation, but more particles) away from the interior of the solar system. It performs this shielding less effectively with reduced solar activity.
Fig. 3: Galactic radiation since the 1960s. The series has been measured in Moscow. Source. Note: Upper peaks show strong cosmic radiation.
We had reported about the connections, which Hendrik Svensmark postulates, in the book and also in the blog (last here) several times.
Next we look at the comparison of the cycles among each other:
Fig. 4: The sunspot activity of the cycles in comparison. The numbers in the diagram are obtained by summing the monthly differences between the observed SSN and the mean (blue in Fig.1) up to the current cycle month 125.
5 responses to “Current Solar Cycle Among Weakest On Record. Potentially Cloud-Seeding Cosmic Radiation Near Highest Level Since 1950s”
Earlier it was noted
that the thermosphere had shrunk and this too has possible impacts on
air mass movements lower down where the weather (and climate change)
affects us.
From this observation the Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) was produced. It can be seen here at https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/10/26/a-new-space-weather-metric/
The TCI is an attempt to link the high altitude variation (caused by solar variation) to what happens further down where the weather happens. Note where we are now — Solar minimum and the thermosphere is cooling off.
From this observation the Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) was produced. It can be seen here at https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/10/26/a-new-space-weather-metric/
The TCI is an attempt to link the high altitude variation (caused by solar variation) to what happens further down where the weather happens. Note where we are now — Solar minimum and the thermosphere is cooling off.
TCI was invented by Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center and colleagues. For the past 17 years they have been using the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite to monitor the wattage of infrared emissions from the top of the atmosphere. Recently, they realized that these measurements could be used to summarize the state of the thermosphere in a single daily number -– the TCI.
