This is getting tiresome. Last week we were on the brink of war with Venezuela. The one certainty is that the War lobby has been meddling as usual. They just burned out in Venezuela. Now we have a sudden wind up of tension around Iran. That aircraft carrier was scheduled months ago.
What happened to Syria? What happened in Afghanistan?
All of it ends up with serious diplomatic activity and a serious downsizing of War like activity. We have an amazingly busy state department. He makes the status quo untenable and then waits.
There is a lot we do not see at all yet. I would promote a federal regime for Europe including Russia and have Putin run as first President. That is big enough to seem totally crazy, but why not?
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Chances of war with Iran are rising. And Donald Trump is to blame
The Trump administration is goading Iran into a conflict, and no one should expect Iran to back down
Donald Trump is doing everything possible to provoke a conflict with Iran while making it look like Iran’s fault.
A year ago, Trump withdrew the US from the deal that has successfully stopped Iran from getting nuclear weapons – despite the IAEA and even the Trump administration confirming Iran was abiding by the agreement. The day Trump took the US out of the deal, he lit the fuse of a potential crisis.
Ever since, Trump has been blowing on the fuse, trying to speed things up. The US imposed
sanctions on Iranian banks and shipping companies, attempting to
squeeze the Iranian economy. Recently, the Trump administration announced it would no longer grant waivers for the sanctions to some America’s closest partners, including South Korea and Japan.
And yet, those who helped build the Iran deal have tried to save it.
Europe, China and Russia worked with Iran to maintain the deal, and for a
year Iran continued to comply despite America’s withdrawal and
pressure. For a period, it seemed as though other countries would keep
the deal alive and wait out the Trump administration.
Time, however, may now be up. In recent days, the US has
significantly ratcheted up what had already been red-hot rhetoric on
Iran. In sending a carrier strike group and bomber taskforce to the
region, John Bolton, the national security adviser, said: “The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack.”
The deployment was supposedly in response to what Bolton described as
“a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings”, and
Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, made an urgent trip to Iraq to address the possibility of Iranian attacks. However, one US official described the administration’s response as “overreacting”.
It has long been crystal clear that Iran is a malign actor. Iran’s
support for terrorism, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and
Hezbollah, and its repression of the Iranian people has caused the US to
pressure Iran for decades. There is no need for Trump to hype Iran’s
bad behavior – it’s clear as day.
But Trump is actually helping Iran make the case for restarting its
pursuit of nuclear weapons. Following Trump’s reckless acts, Iran is accusing the US of being the transgressor, claiming
that Iran’s “self-restraint has remained unanswered … the Islamic
Republic has been left with no choice other than reducing its
commitments.
“The window which is currently open for diplomacy will not be open
for long, and the US and other JCPOA parties will be held fully
responsible for the failure of the JCPOA and any possible consequences
it may have.”
Iran now wants countries to choose between Iran and the US, stating
that if the other signatories to the deal do not help deflect US
sanctions, Iran will increase its nuclear capabilities beyond the limits
imposed by the deal.
Whether
or not countries side with the US or Iran, it is clear the Trump
administration is isolating itself. Europeans are frustrated by the
administration’s approach, and are creating
a system to circumvent US sanctions. Japan, South Korea, China and
India – all of whom reduced their oil imports from Iran at the request
of the United States in order to make the nuclear deal possible – are
fed up with the United States pulling the rug out from underneath them.
Most concerning is the potential for a war. Bolton and Pompeo
sometimes act like they are itching for a fight, and US actions over the
last year have significantly raised the chances for a miscalculation
that spirals into conflict. While it might not seem like Trump wants
war, he is so inept and ideological on Iran it’s not difficult to see
him stumbling into a conflict. And despite Americans’ dissatisfaction
with US reliance on the military to solve problems, the fact that 71% of Americans view Iran as an enemy could grease the skids of conflict.
The encouragement on Iran that Trump receives from Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates and Israel isn’t helping. One can easily see a
resurgence of Israeli threats of military strikes against Iran – only
this time, as former Obama defense department official Colin Kahl puts it: “The US administration is much more likely to encourage Israeli strikes rather than seek to constrain them.”
Trump’s actions have now empowered hardliners in Iran, making a
diplomatic outcome less likely. Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, stuck
his neck out to negotiate the nuclear deal, and the US withdrawal has
damaged supporters of the deal in Iran. New sanctions have allowed the
Iranian regime to more credibly blame the US for the current economic
woes. All of this makes Iran more prone to aggression, not capitulation.
It is easy to see through the Trump administration’s lies. Trump
claims to want to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon but withdrew
from the very deal that had stopped Iran from obtaining one. Trump
officials claim to be supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people,
but the sanctions hurt the Iranian people first and foremost, and Trump
is still banning average Iranians from visiting the United States.
The Trump administration is goading Iran into a conflict, and no one
should expect Iran to back down. Today America is less safe because of
Trump’s actions on Iran, and the chances for war are rising.
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