The future is rushing toward us and it is amazing. Better yet the heavy lifting should be largely complete by 2050. After that it is polishing things.
We will all have long lives and better yet we all will be needed. someone has to work with those robots in order to imagine the local future. After all, no robot will actually care if that paddock is beautiful. That will be our human vocation.
In between we can crew up an exploration ship and head out to visit other star systems and all that. It all works and it all will be easy.
As Doug is completely aware, the speed of real change is exponential and this late in the game it is not going to change either.
Politically we are now living through the end of Fascism and this is naturally unnerving. Yet the fight is engaged eyes wide open. We will win and global poverty will quickly disappear and local governance will come though the Rule of Twelve. Every one will have a place that they can handle and be honored for. This may sound utopian but it is not. It is profoundly practical once eschew stupidity.
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Doug Casey on the Biggest Change in Human History
By Doug Casey
October 7, 2019
Justin’s note: As you know, this week and next, we’re going full-on “Totally Incorrect.” We’re featuring the most controversial content from our founder, legendary speculator Doug Casey. We’re telling you what you need to hear – so you can prepare for (and profit from) what’s in store for America.The mainstream media is too afraid to say these things. So today, Doug will share some shocking predictions.
As Doug shows below, it’s likely we’re nearing what he calls, “the biggest change in human history.” While what he says may seem unbelievable to 99% of people, he urges you to consider it seriously…
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2019/10/doug-casey/doug-casey-on-the-biggest-change-in-human-history/
By Doug Casey, founder, Casey Research
What you’re going to read in the next few minutes will be shocking
and unbelievable. But it’s also factual and logical. That will make it
upsetting and disturbing. Most people are at least vaguely aware of
what’s happening. But very, very few are aware of its degree or the
implications.
As you probably know, I believe times are about to get quite rough
economically and politically. But, at the same time, I’m very optimistic
about what’s happening in science and technology. So let me hazard some
predictions. And break the old rule about how, if you predict an event
will occur, to make sure you don’t predict its timing.
Right on the Money: Do...
The Recent Past
I was born just after the end of WW2. It was an idyllic era to be an
American. The U.S. had more wealth than the rest of the world combined.
Things were mellow at home as Leave It to Beaver in the ’50s transitioned into “California Girls” in the early ’60s.
True, there were at least a couple of times (the 1962 Cuban Missile
Crisis and a while in the early ’80s) when it looked like there might be
a global thermonuclear war. We not only dodged those bullets, but
things kept improving. The average American accumulated so much stuff
that he had to rent a storage unit, after filling up his two-car garage.
The USSR collapsed, and the U.S. government went on to become the
world’s only superpower. Things have been pretty good within living
memory. No matter that the last couple of generations of prosperity were
financed mostly with borrowed money.
Although everybody (including me) tends to focus on political events,
it’s a mistake to pay too much attention to them. Governments, and even
countries, come and go, rise and fall. Political events should be
viewed as flavoring to the stew, painting on a house, or trim tabs on a
flight. They’re worth noting, but – unless they’re really bad – only
marginally important over the long run.
What is important? From a long-term point of view, there are really
just three things: science, technology, and capital. Science lets you
understand how and why things work. Technology lets you put the theory
into practice. And capital gives you the time and material to make use
of science and technology.
Let’s look at civilization from that long-term point of view. Since
the appearance of Homo sapiens about 200,000 years ago, things improved
at only a glacial pace until the end of the last ice age about 12,000
years ago. Then, with the start of the Neolithic era and the
Agricultural Revolution, things started getting better every millennium.
Then, since the start of the Bronze Age about 5,000 years ago, they
started getting better by the century. Then, with the Renaissance and
the Enlightenment, by the decade.
Since the Industrial Revolution, about 200 years ago, they’ve been
getting better every year. And it’s been an accelerating trend.
Exponentially accelerating. Most people don’t keep up with these things,
but important advances are now being made weekly.
Why are these things accelerating at an exponential rate? There are
several reasons, I think. One is that, since all the past advances in
science and technology still exist, we don’t have to constantly reinvent
the wheel. Another is that, in earlier eras, there was very little
surplus left over after covering basic food, shelter, and clothing; now
there’s a lot. That’s capital, and it’s compounding. But, very
important, there are more scientists and engineers alive today than have
lived in all previous human history put together.
Not only that, but radically new technologies are coming into
existence – not gradually at an arithmetic rate, but at a geometric
rate. So things are on the verge of becoming much, much better, and
very, very quickly. Not only better than you imagine, but better than
you can imagine.
Moore’s Law was formulated in 1965; it states that computational
power will double, and costs will halve, about every 18 months. But it
appears to apply to several areas besides computing.
As a result, it’s highly probable that Timothy Leary was not just
right, but conservative, when he anticipated SMIILE – Space Migration,
Intelligence Increase, and Life Extension. Those things are just part of
the picture.
So here’s the good news. It’s likely the very nature of life is going
to change for the better, almost unrecognizably, over the next 20 years
or so.
I’ve very arbitrarily divided the areas of progress into 10 areas.
There’s a lot of overlap among them because all the areas of science and
technology are an increasingly integrated whole.
I’m sure you’re familiar with all these trends. But the chances are
low that you’ve adequately considered how quickly they’re advancing and
where that advance is going to lead – very soon. I only want to broach
the subjects; libraries can be written on all of this. The takeaway is
that the very components of reality itself – Matter, Energy, Space, and
Time – will soon be manipulated on a cosmic scale.
The Next Industrial Revolution
Some of these things, like energy and space exploration, are just
extensions of current technologies. Others, especially nanotech, are
game changers.
Speculator (High Groun...
- Energy – With the exception of nuclear, all power comes from the sun. In the past, solar, wind, and similar power sources existed mainly in the dreams of economically illiterate hippies. But now, combined with rapidly advancing battery technology, they finally make sense. Better yet, oncoming generations of modular nuclear reactors will be tiny, extremely safe, simple, and cheap. Maybe fusion power will finally become practical – although that would just be a bonus.Oil and gas? They’re important as feedstocks, but mainly because they provide very dense energy. They are, however, essentially compounds of hydrogen and carbon, two of the most common and simplest elements. With adequate (and sufficiently cheap – this is the key) power, they can be created in unlimited quantity; the chemistry is quite basic and well understood. Among other things, algae can be programmed to manufacture them in quantity.
- Space – One of the good things about most governments being bankrupt is that they’re being forced to cede the conquest of space to entrepreneurs, who will colonize the moon, the asteroids, and the planets. I love Elon Musk’s quip: “I’ve said I want to die on Mars. Just not on impact.” Of course, if he’s lucky, he may live to be several hundred years old because of other developments.You need “stuff” to make what you need. A lack of raw materials has always been a major reason for conflict. But digging things out of the Earth, using big yellow trucks, will no longer be humanity’s only option. The asteroids are full of dense elements. They’ll soon become available in massive quantities, cheaply.
- Life extension – It’s clear we’re on the edge of solving the problem of aging; it should be addressed as a degenerative disease. All other diseases are simply footnotes to aging. If you live long enough, you can be, do, and have everything that you can imagine. It’s likely to be possible soon.[Editor’s note: In this Friday’s Conversations With Casey, Doug will talk more about life extension and what it really means. As usual, it will be controversial. But it’s one you don’t want to miss. Be on the lookout this Friday.]
- Biological engineering – The creation of not just new body parts, but new bodies, made to order, is in the works. And new species. And much more. Who really knows what can be done with DNA? But the answer is probably: Almost anything, in lots of ways.
- Distributed manufacturing – A. E. van Vogt’s The Weapon Shops of Isher predicted machines that would create advanced weapons for you, in the privacy of your own home. Now that’s possible with 3-D printing. Soon, if you can design something, or get the design, you can create it. At home.
- Robotics – Not just smart machines in factories. In fact, factories themselves may be on their way out. Humanoid beings – products of bioengineering and AI – could replace them. They’ll perhaps be almost indistinguishable from normal people.This alone, the creation of intelligent machines, will overturn the nature of society, family, warfare, work – everything.
- Artificial intelligence – I believe that a difference that makes no difference is no difference. That’s the concept behind the Turing test. At some point, very soon, machines will be smarter than their creators and will in turn create other machines smarter than they are. And continue doing so at a geometric rate.
- Nanotech – I did a chapter on this in Crisis Investing for the Rest of the ’90s. At the time, not one person in 100 had a clue what it was. In its ultimate form, nanotech – the use of molecular-sized assemblers and supercomputers – will change the character of reality itself. Totally and unrecognizably. It amounts to pixie dust, making it possible to manipulate the 92 naturally occurring elements into useful compounds cheaply and easily. It’s becoming possible to fabricate totally new materials, like carbon nanotubes, vastly more capable than any “natural” material.
- Computer science – Electromechanical switches, then vacuum tubes, then transistors, now silicon chips, and soon quantum computing are taking place on a molecular level. All the knowledge in the world, contained in a cube. Or perhaps in the head of a biologically enhanced robot. Or perhaps in an interface to your own brain.
- Virtual reality – You’ll be able to immerse yourself in a world of your own creation, activating all of your senses, in a veritable Star Trek holodeck that will be almost indistinguishable from real reality. Perhaps you will prefer to live in unreality. All in the privacy of your own home.
Where This Is Going
You may think I’m pulling your leg and that I’ve gone too far in
these projections. But this isn’t just a titillating compilation of
cover stories from Popular Science magazine. Our brains are
accustomed to thinking arithmetically – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc. But
technology is compounding geometrically – 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.
You’ve seen this happen in the realm of computing and electronics just
in our lifetimes. But – partially enabled by those things – it’s
happening in many areas.
You might analogize this to what happens to water as it gets colder.
There’s not much difference between water at, say, 45 and 33 degrees
Fahrenheit. But once it gets to 32, it has a change of state, a
transformation of what it is, its very nature. And it happens very, very
quickly.
The advances being made are the stuff of science fiction. In fact,
sci-fi has long been a much better predictor of the future than think
tanks, futurists, or even the best scientists. I’ve often wondered why
this is the case. As someone with solipsist tendencies, I’m partial to
believing that anything you can conceive of can probably be done. And
anything that can be done will be done. The transformation of reality
itself is just a matter of having sufficient matter, energy, space, and
time added to technology. When you see it that way, you have to be
intensely optimistic. And I am. In fact, for the first time, advances in
the real world are starting to outrun the imaginings of sci-fi.
Skeptics might counter: “Sure. Given enough time, everything happens
eventually. Including the heat death of the universe.” And they’re
right.
But because of the exponential rate of improvement in the things I’ve
mentioned and some others I haven’t, I suspect we’re about to have a
change in the state of existence. This is what Ray Kurzweil, Google’s
director of engineering, has dubbed “The Singularity.”
Go back to the things I listed. The really important things –
computers, AI, robotics, nanotech, and bioscience – are all advancing
according to Moore’s Law. Doubling every 18 months, with costs dropping
50%. Things move very quickly when they move at an exponential rate.
There’s a good chance they’re all going to come together at once.
Exactly when might that be? This is the tricky part, predicting the time
as well as the event. Kurzweil thinks about 20 years from now. If he’s
right, this is not only good news. It is, by orders of magnitude, the
best news of any type in human history.
Now for Some Bad News
What might the bad news be? You may (quite logically) be thinking
about some unsavory implications of these advances. The evolution of
Skynet and Terminators. People failing to reproduce. Grey goo from
runaway nanotech covering the planet. Humanity destroying itself in all
manner of ways. I agree that bad things can happen. It’s not just a
question of misfeasance, some unforeseen accident happening. But actual
malfeasance isn’t out of the question.
Why? Technology is advancing exponentially, but human ethics don’t
seem to be advancing at all. In fact, maybe the general moral tone of
humanity is actually degrading. If that’s true, then you can argue it’s a
bad idea for large-brained chimpanzees to have the magic technologies
we’ve been discussing.
So, of course, some people will say: “We have to slow down this mad
rush to the future! We have to at least regulate these scary things!”
Sound reasonable? Actually, no; the concept is incredibly stupid. You
might also ask who the “we” is that wants to make those decisions. Of
course, it’s the same professional busybodies who are naturally drawn to
government, NGOs, media, and the like. They’re not the best and
brightest, as they like to believe. They’re actually the worst and most
dangerous of mankind, and they’re always fearful of progress.
Why? Because although the leaders always get new technologies first
(e.g., horses, gunpowder, computers), the cat always gets out of the
bag, and these things act to further liberate the average man after a
while.
Notwithstanding various drags on our progress, mankind has been
expanding its powers exponentially since about the time it learned to
make fire. But the nature of the math is that the real growth doesn’t
come until the end, at which point it seems instantaneous. We can see
what’s happening intellectually, but very few can picture it in reality.
Recall the fable about the mathematician who invented chess and got a
king to reward him by giving him double the amount of wheat for each of
the 64 squares of a chessboard, starting with one grain. How much grain
might that be? The answer is over 18 quintillion grains, which is around
1,000 times the world’s annual production of wheat. It’s
counterintuitive because intuition can’t deal with geometric increases
beyond a low level.
It’s idiocy to try to curtail the rewards of a process – and here
we’re talking about the Ascent of Man itself – at the very moment of
triumph. Maybe humanity is now (wild guess) at around the 50th
chessboard square. Exactly where things start getting interesting.
It’s been said that any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic. But there’s a big problem for you and me
as individuals. At the moment, we all have very finite lifetimes. What
if (even though medical advances are extending our life expectancies
radically) we die before magic happens?
That’s why there’s absolutely nothing to be lost by going for the brass ring.
Let’s consider mundane life the way it’s always been and still is.
Unless things change very quickly for the better, you’re going to be
dead sometime in between tomorrow morning and, if you’re both young and
lucky, 50 years from now. Considering the (current) absolute and total
certainty of death, taking any risk to avoid it, even with long-shot
odds, doesn’t just make excellent sense. It’s imperative.
So I’m not particularly concerned with the possible ultimate
consequences of runaway technological advances. In fact, I think they’re
almost all good, even if they’re a little scary. And now, for the first
time in history, the inevitable is imminent. We can deal with potential
problems when the time comes. Right now, I’m only concerned with things
that might stop us from getting there in a reasonable (i.e., a fraction
of a lifetime) time frame. But it’s entirely possible that humanity
could blow it.
How might we blow it? In decreasing order of probability, you can
worry about a lot of things. You can worry about a bus hitting you
tomorrow morning. Or a pandemic. Or a super volcano. Or an asteroid
strike, for that matter.
I’m most concerned about human-caused (anthropogenic, if you will)
possibilities. Like World War 3, recalling that Einstein said he didn’t
know what weapons would be used in it, but he was confident that sticks
and stones would be used in WW4. That would put a stop to the advance of
technology for a while, in addition to its other unpleasantness and
inconvenience.
I’m also concerned about the consequences of the next phase of the
Greater Depression. We entered the leading edge of the economic
hurricane in 2007. We’ve been in the eye of the storm since 2010. And
now, we’re going into the trailing edge.
No one can tell you exactly what it will be like. Very possibly, both
catastrophic deflation and hyperinflation in sequence (in any order).
Or in different parts of the economy at the same time (basic foodstuffs
skyrocketing; the value of McMansions and BMWs collapsing). People with
their life savings in dollars losing most everything. The State raising
taxes hugely. All kinds of police-state measures being enforced in a
vain attempt to restore stability. And a lot more things of this nature.
It’s likely to last at least as long, be much worse, and much different
even than what the world went through from 1914–1946.
This is extremely important because, you’ll recall, science and
technology are only two legs to the tripod. Capital is equally
necessary. And the Greater Depression, and its knock-on effects, could
destroy a lot of capital.
One consequence of the Greater Depression might be that the tech
trends I listed above will slow down radically. Less capital may be
created and much less put aside for investment. Much could be
misallocated. And the government always puts itself first; it may use
what capital there is for its own purposes. Technology and science need
as much capital as possible to advance as quickly as possible.
Vested interests, typically shortsighted, always use politics to
fight innovation. Taxi drivers stupidly lobby against Uber; hoteliers
lobby against Airbnb. They don’t see themselves as modern Luddites, but
they are. Even worse, people may see some bad effects of technology and
react against it. Under certain conditions, you could find scientists
hunted down like witches for violating God’s will. Stranger things have
happened in times of stress.
To be clear, I don’t think there’s such a thing as bad technology;
people confuse the concept with its use by people with bad intentions.
This is why I’m concerned about government using, or even financing,
technology. I often talk about how the State is dangerous and
destructive. But now, on the cusp of The Singularity, it’s true on a
cosmic level. If, for instance, it delays a medical advance that may
save you by a year, it may not be costing you a year. It may be costing
you 500 years.
And it’s not just technology, but science itself that is in jeopardy.
If it turns out that anthropogenic global warming is a gigantic hoax (I
believe it is), even though it’s said that 97% of scientists believe in
it (a lie), and that the science is settled (it’s not), that may
discredit the idea of science to the average person. Anything is
possible. After all, something like 40% of Americans think the world is
about 6,000 years old and cavemen lived with dinosaurs.
So?
Let me sum up. It’s likely we’re only 10, 20, or 30 years from what
will turn out to be the biggest change in human history. I understand
that sounds unbelievable to 99% of people. But I urge you to consider it
seriously.
What does that mean? In fact, you might ask why investment results
even matter if we move into an economy of total abundance. Almost
everyone will benefit from these changes, at least indirectly and
eventually, if they live long enough. But you want to benefit as
directly and immediately as possible. Having capital will put you first
in line. Having capital allows you to be an early adopter, and that
could be critical.
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