Friday, October 1, 2021

Coal and Gas Prices Have Doubled Which Contribute to China Power Outages

This is not a small thing at all.  Then add in Trump's tarrifs which have also not gone away and we have a real time cost squeeze underway thast must hurt like hell.  Understand energy direct casts are usualy around ten percent of the costing structure.  Thus we can count of a huge drag on cash flow.  Think a combined charge of in excess of fifteen percent of selling cost.  

This will seriously hurt and explains the present level of disturbance..

At the same time the Multi nationals are shifting global production into South East Asia and also now India with a vengence.  They have suddenly discovered that they really like the rule of law without having big brother involved every damn time.

It is stunning that CCP arrogance is this stupid.  They have successfully alienated all their neighbors to the point that they are all rearming at speed and strategically repositioning.  There is not one flash point that has been kept quiet unless you count North Korea and Russia which would be suicidal at best.

Both Japan and South Korea are able to field a million man army in an emergency quite able to handle and rough up an american army.  The same may not be true for the Vietenese army but that is also changing up as well.  My point here is that these are the forces not neediI hope ng to force a sea crossing.  North Korea would be desparately needed to stop such an event as a land invasion into Manchuria.

Then there remains India's strategic option of repositioning a million man army in the island of Taiwan in order to then threaten a direct crossing to the mainland or alternately supporting an invasion through Hong Kong to liberate the Pearl River delta and the coastal strip south.

All this before we look at the burgioning naval and air assets now been establshed.

This is a crisis that can only end with the surrender of the CCP.  I hope that the CCP do not actually attempt some form of military adventurism.. Ladakh was so stupid.  It allowed India to go on full alert.  a full engagement this winter is very possible because it could allow India to rumble the Chinese out of lands originally part of India.  This would shake the CCP.

Coal and Gas Prices Have Doubled Which Contribute to China Power Outages

September 28, 2021 by Brian Wang

China has been rationing power because of coal and gas shortages. There are reports of multiple power outages to residences for four days in a row. Households have had to restrict AC usage.

There are many factors contributing to a perfect storm of increased demand, high energy prices and reduced supplies.

China’s heatwave, shortages with Coal India and power plants, high freight rates, increased appetite in the rest of Asia, tightness due to Indonesian rains, Hurricane Ida in the U.S., and COVID reduced supply and increased demand.

China has also had a 30% reduction in hydroelectric power.

Usually, China absorbs power shortages by restricting commercial companies.

The power shortages are hitting companies. Dozens of other companies, including a parts supplier to Tesla, were also told to halt production this week.

Global prices for coal and natural gas have more than doubled.

Natural gas prices are at seven-year highs in the U.S. and record highs in Europe and Asia. US natural gas futures extended a rally to above $6.1 per million British thermal units in September, a fresh high since February of 2014.

European electricity prices have climbed to their highest levels in over a decade in recent weeks, rising above 100 euros per megawatt-hour in many markets. In Germany and Spain, for example, prices in September have been around three or four times the averages seen in 2019 and 2020. This increase has been driven by the surge in gas, coal and carbon prices in Europe.

Chinese utilities are only permitted to pass along 10% price increases. They have not yet been permitted to pass along more price increases to consumers. This makes for a less flexible response the shortages and price increases.

China is prioritizing building up supplies of coal for winter heating. A shortage of coal for home heating would result in people freezing to death.

Pivot to Nuclear District Heating

District heating has been used for decades in Stockholm, Sweden where pipes move hot water to heat an entire city.

This should have played to China’s strengths in rapid construction. However, China only seems to have about 1 million square meters of housing heated with nuclear district heating. They captured the excess heat from Qinshan AP1000 reactors for heating in Haiyang. There also seems to be test heating using a NHR200 reactor.

Hydroelectric power, coal and natural gas have proven to be insufficient in the current energy situation.

Aggressively adding nuclear energy for heating would make for a more robust and reliable energy system.

Solar power has a large efficiency penalty when generating heat.

SOURCES – World Nuclear News, Trading Economics, NEI Magazine, Aljazeera, Reuters
Written By Brian Wang,

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