Friday, April 13, 2012

Antarctic Cold Deep Shrinking for Decades

This is an extraordinary result that utterly dwarfs any imagined effects driven by climatic warming.  My first question is to determine just how accurate this result and the derived conclusion really is.  I can understand some variation but can not understand the magnitudes claimed.

If we assume that it is real, then where is this net change really going and are we actually looking at a real decline globally?  This is surely the proverbial unexpected result that justifies a stiff increase in resources.

Is the Antarctic producing less cold water and why?  That does not appear too likely since this cold is produced on the edge of Antarctica during the cold winter night. Little of that has changed at all or even could.  This has to be evaluated carefully in order to successfully measure it.

Is it possible that the measurement itself is simply insufficient?  A hundred miles apart between two measurements may well impact the final result.  Is this effect actually holding up with GPS and are we really getting enough measurement.

Of course, we do not understand this yet if it is true because it is actually confounding.  Is a major subsea current changing location along a long term cyclical path.  I asked this question before when speculating on the long term cyclical nature of the global climate over millennia.   May this be evidence?  Are surplus warm surface waters been now driven into the polar regions in order to reduce them.  This would certainly explain what is happening coincidentally in the Arctic.

Amount of Coldest Antarctic Water Near Ocean Floor Decreasing for Decades

ScienceDaily (Apr. 3, 2012) — Scientists have found a large reduction in the amount of the coldest deep ocean water, called Antarctic Bottom Water, all around the Southern Ocean using data collected from 1980 to 2011. These findings, in a study now online, will likely stimulate new research on the causes of this change.

Two oceanographers from NOAA and the University of Washington find that Antarctic Bottom Water has been disappearing at an average rate of about eight million metric tons per second over the past few decades, equivalent to about fifty times the average flow of the Mississippi River or about a quarter of the flow of the Gulf Stream in the Florida Straits.

"Because of its high density, Antarctic Bottom Water fills most of the deep ocean basins around the world, but we found that the amount of this water has been decreasing at a surprisingly fast rate over the last few decades," said lead author Sarah Purkey, graduate student at the School of Oceanography at the University of Washington in Seattle, Wash. "In every oceanographic survey repeated around the Southern Ocean since about the 1980s, Antarctic Bottom Water has been shrinking at a similar mean rate, giving us confidence that this surprisingly large contraction is robust."

Antarctic Bottom Water is formed in a few distinct locations around Antarctica, where seawater is cooled by the overlying air and made saltier by ice formation. The dense water then sinks to the sea floor and spreads northward, filling most of the deep ocean around the world as it slowly mixes with warmer waters above it.

The world's deep ocean currents play a critical role in transporting heat and carbon around the planet, thus regulating our climate.

While previous studies have shown that the bottom water has been warming and freshening over the past few decades, these new results suggest that significantly less of this bottom water has been formed during that time than in previous decades.

"We are not sure if the rate of bottom water reduction we have found is part of a long-term trend or a cycle," said co-author Gregory C. Johnson, Ph.D., an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. "We need to continue to measure the full depth of the oceans, including these deep ocean waters, to assess the role and significance that these reported changes and others like them play in the Earth's climate."

Changes in the temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved carbon dioxide of this prominent water mass have important ramifications for Earth's climate, including contributions to sea level rise and the rate of Earth's heat uptake.

"People often focus on fluctuations of currents in the North Atlantic Ocean as an indicator of climate change, but the Southern Ocean has undergone some very large changes over the past few decades and also plays a large role in shaping our climate," said Johnson.

The data used in this study are highly accurate temperature data repeated at roughly 10-year intervals by an international program of repeated ship-based oceanographic surveys. Within the U.S., the collection of these data has been a collaborative effort of governmental laboratory and university scientists, funded primarily by NOAA and the National Science Foundation. However, much of the data used in this study were measured by international colleagues.

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