It has really only taken five years and it is reasonable today that we will add as much in the next five years if prices hold up. Better yet drilling efficiency is steadily improving and the cost of new oil will also be coming down just as we are reentering some of the most prolific fields in history.
The bottom line is that North America is already oil independent and quickly becoming better. It is still expensive oil and demand has been choked back but it is also certain that we will not be held up for ransom except at home.
This collapse in American competition for offshore oil has made it possible for the emergeging countries to secure their own supplies with plenty available.
Panic Strikes OPEC
By Keith Kohl | Tuesday, July 8th, 2014
Spoiled young Saudi princes owe everything to one man.
It wasn't some greedy executive at the head of one of the “Seven Sisters” of old — although they did have a fair hand in developing the vast oil wealth beneath Saudi Arabia's sand dunes.
Nor do these immature heirs of the
Saudi royal family truly owe their luxury to the mighty Ghawar oil
field. Flushed daily with incredulous amounts of seawater, Ghawar is
officially the world's largest wishing well.
No, these kids owe it all to a man named Fred Davies.
Don't recognize the name? I can't say I
blame you. In fact, I would go so far as to say that few people outside
the oil industry know his name.
Born in South Dakota, Fred was a young,
28-year-old geologist when he went to work for the Standard Oil Company
of California. In 1930, the company sent him to the Persian Gulf, where
he recommended they begin drilling a test well on Bahrain.
Not only did they strike oil, but the events that followed led to Saudi Arabia's eventual stranglehold on global oil supply.
Now, 82 years after the historic oil
discovery in Bahrain, there's another shift taking place in the power
structure of the world's oil production.
And it couldn't have come at a better time...
Dark Omens for Saudi Arabia
Truth be told, the Saudi oil sheikhs probably thought they had a few more years before it happened.
Well, they didn't.
During the first quarter of 2014, the
United States' oil production exceeded 11 million barrels per day. In
case you're keeping track, that's the highest it's been in almost 25
years.
It was also enough to surpass both Saudi Arabia and Russia.
It's official: the U.S. has overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer.
Moreover, it's a title that may stick
with us for a while. After all, the IEA has already projected that U.S.
production will increase to 13.1 million barrels per day over the next
five years before plateauing.
Of course, the IEA also predicted the U.S. wouldn't gain the top spot until 2015.
But is the news a little too good to be true?
It's important that we put some
perspective on this. First and foremost, it's imperative that people
understand the 11 million barrels per day isn't entirely crude oil. The figure also includes both natural gas liquids and condensates.
It's more accurate to call us the leader in "total liquids production," not just crude oil.
Don't think I'm trying to shortchange
this accomplishment. I'm only pointing out what you won't hear from the
talking heads in the mainstream media.
To get a better look at our crude oil production, take a look at a chart of U.S. field production from the EIA (which includes condensate):
In April 2014, the U.S. produced 8.4 million barrels of crude oil per day.
Buckle up; the ride is just beginning...
As you can imagine, this is paving the
way to even more incredible oil stock gains than we saw with either the
Bakken or Eagle Ford (which both created their share of millionaires).
The question here isn't when you should
move on this opportunity, but HOW FAST you can move on it... because I
can tell you, plenty of folks already have.
OPEC Panic, Saudi Tears, and Your Profits
In the days of Fred Davies, companies
took an entirely different approach to drilling oil wells. Most of the
wells drilled at the time were vertical, and striking a gusher would
lead to the rapid development of a field.
As you know, we can attribute every
last bit of success in U.S. oil production to the tight oil plays in the
lower-48 states. We can narrow that down even more today, because
nearly half of U.S. oil output is concentrated in just two states: North
Dakota and Texas.
Together, production from the two combined for a jaw-dropping 4 million barrels of oil per day during April.
Trust me, it isn't a fluke.
And there's one very specific reason
why the Saudis are breaking out in a nervous sweat at night. You see,
even though the Saudi kingdom holds an estimated 263 billion barrels of
oil (for now, we'll take them at their word that they actually have that
much oil underground, no matter how suspicious those numbers are), the
thing they fear the most is U.S. supply.
The reality is that U.S. companies are
becoming extremely efficient at producing their tight oil resources.
It's all thanks to the advancements made in drilling technology.
This is also the reason why North Dakota has boosted its oil production by an average of 9,111 barrels per day every month since 2006.
More importantly, these U.S. companies are getting better at cracking the shale code with every well they drill.
No comments:
Post a Comment