Monday, March 6, 2017

Unprecedented Arctic weather has scientists on edge

What has been interesting is that the big changes take place by way of unexpected fluky weather.  Recall that the northern hemisphere shifted to a warmer regime around forty years ago.  This had its most dramatic effect in the Arctic and Antarctic ( now maximum sea ice and obviously colder ).   Most important is that it led to the elimination of almost all long term sea ice and opened up much more surface water.

This meant that fluke weather actually made a real difference.  Thus a westerly came along and shoved a lot of ice out in an unusual location one year.  It mattered.  This year the Arctic high just shifted south to cover Siberia allowing the access of warmer air to enter the high arctic and hugely slowing the freeze up.  It would not matter at all had we thick multiyear ice in place.
Instead we are now entering the spring and summer with a lot less surface ice and this must lead to dramatic shrinkage this summer blowing all records away.  Plan your Arctic cruise now.
Unprecedented Arctic weather has scientists on edge

Sea ice on track for lowest maximum amount on record

February 17, 2017As station chief at NOAA’s Point Barrow, Alaska, observatory, Bryan Thomas works close to the edge of the Arctic Ocean. What he saw from his office in early February, looking north toward the horizon, was troubling.

“I could see what’s known as water-skyoffsite link — the reflection of dark water on clouds on the horizon,” Thomas said. “From land, you can maybe see 10 miles, and the clouds were telling us that somewhere in that distance there was open water.”

Normally, there would be unbroken sea ice for hundreds of miles.

“Here we are in February, when we expect maximum sea ice extentoffsite link,” Thomas added. “This might be all we’re going to get.”

Arctic sea-ice concentration for the week ending February 12, 2017. The gold line shows the historic median extent for the month, showing how far behind this year’s ice cover is. Map image based on NASA and NOAA satellite data provided by NSIDC. Check out this animation of weekly Arctic sea-ice concentration from Sep. 6, 2016, through Feb. 12, 2017, which shows how sluggish ice growth has been this winter. (NOAA/

The Arctic’s new abnormal

It’s a time of tumult in the Arctic, with record temperatures and extraordinary sea-ice conditions now becoming the norm. For starters: 

Sea ice observed in January in the Arctic was the lowest in the 38 years of satellite recordoffsite links and 100,000 square miles less than 2016. That’s equivalent to the size of Colorado. 

The average temperature of 4.4 degrees F in Barrow, Alaska, from November 2016 through January 2017 shattered the old record of 0 degrees set between 1929 and 1930. From 1921 to 2015, the average November-to-January temperature in Barrow was -7.9 degrees F. 

Temperatures in the Arctic for the calendar year 2016 were by far the highest since 1900. Each of the past four years was among the top 10 warmest on record

The late and faltering formation of sea ice this winter is one of many signs of extraordinary change in the Arctic, said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. He added that repeated surges of extremely warm air have stunted the growth of sea ice during fall and winter.

This graphic depicts the record low winter sea-ice extent in 2016-2017 (blue), compared with the previous record set in 2011-2012 (dotted line) and the 1981-2010 average (gray line). The light gray bar captures 95 percent of the observed natural range of variability from the average during that period. (National Snow and Ice Data Center)

Melt season is dead ahead, and it’s not looking good

Will 2017 set a record for the least amount of sea ice ever recorded at winter’s end? Serreze said it’s probably a given: “We’re starting melt season on very, very bad footing.offsite link” 

What’s happening in the Arctic isn’t staying in the Arctic, added Richard Thoman, a meteorologist for NOAA's National Weather Service Alaska Region. Profound changes are coming to the state’s interior as well.

“This winter was cold by today’s climate standards,” Thoman said. “By historic standards, it was completely uninteresting. I’m ready to say beyond any doubt that interior Alaska simply does not experience the temperatures it did in the past. “

The rapid changes are bewildering, even to scientists who’ve studied it for decades.

“We knew the Arctic would be the place we’d see the effects of climate change first, but what’s happened over the last couple of years has rattled the science community to its core,” Serreze said. “Things are happening so fast, we’re having trouble keeping up with it. We’ve never seen anything like this before.”

See how decreasing Arctic sea ice is affecting animal life: Watch "Animals of the Ice" from NOAA 

Theo Stein, 303-497-6288

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