Saturday, May 19, 2018

1951 : MIT Scientist Predicted Global Cooling Based On Sunspots

A reminder that the understanding of climate science was once based on sound science.  All that starts by understanding that the genesis of climate is the sun and that problem needs to be deeply refined before you attempt to make adjustments for surface changes let alone human contribution.

It is not an easy problem except we know that the sun puts out energy and this varies on a nearly decadal basis as expressed by sunspots.  This has become better refined recently in terms of our understanding of internal flows and their combining cycles.

Then add in the secondary effect on the cosmic ray flux and we enter an additional component of variation that is driven by solar variation and leads to changes in cloud cover.

Then we can deal with all the sources of cyclic variation on earth and the effect of radiation losses as well.  Throw in the Sahara here as a real issue that has lowered our global temperature by at least one degree.

It should be blindingly clear that it is all about the sun and without getting that right you have nothing.  Thus this 1951 prediction was easily correct.  Now the same thing has happened all over again and we are entering a decade at least of cooling rather than warming.

1951 : MIT Scientist Predicted Global Cooling Based On Sunspots

May 2, 2018 2:43 PM 

1951 : MIT Scientist Predicted Global Cooling Based On Sunspots

In 1951, MIT professor Hurd C. Willett predicted 20 years of global cooling, based on sunspot cycles. 07 May 1951, Page 9 – The Pantagraph at The cooling occurred exactly as he predicted. Scientists blamed all bad weather on global cooling, and other scientists discovered a relationship between sunspots and winter storms. Dr. Walter Orr Roberts at NCAR said their discovery was “of overwhelming importance.” 21 Jul 1974, 13 – The Des Moines Register at The cooling has since been erased by NASA, as has Walter Orr Roberts legacy as a solar physicist. NCAR now describes him as an early climate change advocate. NASA has erased the post-1940’s global cooling. graph.png (1130×600) Tweet

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