Wednesday, May 17, 2023

A Canadian Century

a long time ago,Canada learned that when you bring in new citizens able to make it here, that their children will all become good loyal Canadians, whatever the parents are or were.

The hard part will be sourcing those new citizens.  It is certainly global and many are picking up on established enterprises here.  This has made a solid market for small business here.

I would like to say it is all well planned, but really not so much.  It is a case of real demand for full modernity without attempting to struggle for it back home.  Canada happens to be the sweet spot if you can afford it all.  except just about everywhere we have educated citizens who can pay for it.

just think.  You have run through a job and gotten married and few good salaries exist in your city.  You have money and family support.  what a great time to make such a move.  difficult, but also an adventure and you get here to discover a support community of expats.  so why not?  it actually works for all of them.

A Canadian Century

May 12, 2023 by Brian Wang

The 20th century is largely characterized as the American Century where population more than tripled from 76 million in 1900 to 282 million in 2000. It was also where America achieved economic, political and technological dominance. Canada could have an impressive Canadian century in the 21st Century. It won’t rise to number one but it could see a tripling of population and a much stronger economy.

Canada started in 2000 with 30.7 million people and is with days of reaching 40 million people.

Canada would pass the population of France in 2050 and would pass Germany around 2062. Canada would pass the population of Japan around 2070. Japan’s population is expected to fall to about 86 million in 2075 from 125 million today. Germany’s population is expected to fall to about 75 million in 2065.

Canada should still have a high per capita income and could reach fourth place in overall GDP by 2065-2080. Canada should have higher per capita income than Japan and Germany. Canada would be behind China, USA and India in GDP.

The high growth rate scenario has Canada reaching 40.3 million in 2024 and 40.9 million in 2025.

Canada’s Statscan realtime estimator is at 39.89 million people today and adding 200,000 to 300,000 every 3 months.

Statscan estimated 38.9 million at Sept 30, 2022, 39.3 million at Dec 2022 and 39.56 million at March 31, 2023. This is tracking to 40.0 million at June 30, 2023 and 40.6 million at the end of 2023.

This is looking like
42 million by the end of 2025 and
47 million by 2030,
50 million by 2035 and
60 million by 2045
70 million by 2055
80 million by 2065.

Comparing to Other Countries

Canada was at 30.7 million people in 2000 and now surpassing 40 million.
Canada’s per capita nominal GDP was $24k in 2000 and the US was at $36k. Now Canada is at $55k per capita nominal in 2022 vs US at $76k.
USA has 38% more now per capita vs 50% more in 2000. Canada improved by 9%.
Germany per capita income is wis $48k now vs $24k in 2000.

Canada population increased 28% since 2000 vs US at 18%.

Japan’s population fell 1.5% from 2000 to now. Japan fell from $39k per capita GDP in 2000 to $36k today.

Canada’s population and economy have been growing faster than competing developed countries from 2000 to 2023. This accelerated in 2021, 2022.

Canada as a relatively attractive immigration destination and maintaining over 500k immigration and some population growth to reach 1M more people per year.

I have a public prediction accuracy of 90% and rank 47th out of thousands of forecasters.

I have the forecasts of when Canada reaches 50 million and 60 million etc…

You might be predicting doom for many countries. I am saying Canada is around 20th in population up from 36th and goes from 9th in GDP to 4th.

Canada will and is passing Italy and Russia.

Canada has 72% of France’s total GDP. Canada was 54% of France GDP in 2000.
Canada has 68% of the UK GDP now vs 44% in 2000.

Germany, Japan, France and UK are mostly heading to shrinking populations with more aging problems.

Brazil might stay ahead of Canada but Brazil is also resource dependent and has a history of occasionally wrecking its economy.

South Korea’s population will also start shrinking badly.

India can also mess up its economy and Canada could pass them.

Canada with a decent developed economy with 70% of US per capita income and a population of 80 million in 2070 could be the 3rd largest nominal GDP country.

The US economy would still be 5-6 times bigger. China population could fall to 1 to 1.1 billion.

Tallest dwarf is still tallest dwarf. I am saying Canada moves from 9th tallest to 4th tallest.

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