Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low

I was aurprised at how fast the ice was removed from 1998 through 2012.  Essentially fifteen years was good enough to knock open the North West Pasage.Then we got five years of clear sailing. 

Now we are watching that same door been slammed shut.  It will not be long at all.  You can be sure that when this happened perhaps sevearal hundred years ago, the handful ofVikings in Vinland on Vancouver Island all grabbed the boat ride back before it got too difficult.  Two years of this and the open waters leading to the Banks island portage will become impassable and this would have been well known.

A life without contact was not attractive for a small colony. The fleet may well have come to evacuate them as well.

Solar energy is the driving imperative and the only available adjuster will be reforesting all the lobal deserts.

Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low

Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt look at the sun and oceans in their latest report here at Die kalte Sonne. The sunspot number for February 2018 was 10.6 and thus was some 30% below the meanfor this time into the cycle. At the moment solar activity is close to quiet. Solar cycle no. 24 (red) compared to the mean of the previous 23 solar cycles (blue) and to the very similar solar cycle no. 5 ( black). As the following comparison chart shows for 111 months into the cycle, the current cycle is the weakest we’ve seen in close to 200 years, and has been only some 55% as active as the mean cycle so far: Low solar activity linked to cool global temperatures As the figure above shows, solar cycle activity progresses in decades-long waves comprising above normal activity and below normal activity. Low activity periods are associated with cool global temperatures and high activity periods with warmer temperatures. Many scientists believe that the earth is now entering a period of cooler temperatures as the next solar cycles 25 and 26 will be weak should the overall the pattern continue. There are are hundreds of scientific papers showing a link between climate and solar activity worldwide. A number of papers show that dry and wet periods at different regions are closely related to solar cycle activity as well. Arctic sea ice surprise – volume rebounds Just 10 years ago, all the talk was about the Arctic sea ice “death spiral”, with some of scientists hysterically predicting the sea ice would soon disappear altogether in the summertime. Ten years later the scientists are now scratching their heads as sea ice has stabilized and is showing some clear signs of a rebound. Japanese skeptic climate blogger Kirye at Twitter posted a message showing how March sea ice volume has made a remarkable comeback in terms of volume (which is what really counts) compared to 2018 – despite the very warm Arctic surface temperatures seen this past winter. Arctic ice cap has grown significantly in volume. Chart source: DMI 

Kirye tweets: “The real #Arctic sea ice thickness is much higher than in 2008. We have not even once seen climate alarmists’ predictions come true, and it is unlikely to happen in the future.” “Volume highest in several years” Tony Heller (who blogs under the Steve Goddard name) also commented on the ice volume growth at Twitter here: “In fact, Arctic sea ice is growing very rapidly and volume is highest in several years.” 

Arctic temperatures plummet 

The following chart shows how Arctic surface temperatures above 80°N latitude have plummeted over the past two weeks after a mild winter: Robust recovery in the Antarctic Sea ice expansion in the Antarctic also has seen a robust recovery in terms of sea ice area, according the the latest chart by the University of Bremen. Source: AWI/U. of Bremen Sea surface temperature back to normal Although global temperatures spiked from 2015 to 2017, the spike was due to the El Nino phenomenon. The following chart depicts the sea surface temperature anomalies from the mean: Sea surface temperature anomalies from Reynolds (NOAA). Sea surface temperatures have since fallen back to near normal levels and it remains to be seen if a new higher plateau will be established after the 1998 El Nino event. In summary, most of the globe is not behaving as climate scientists expected.

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