First off, he has crushed the Republican presidential candidates. No one wins by pretending to act like road kill and that strategy is now been abandoned by his seventeen competitors. Yet i do not think that they have a real answer and i also think that few will last past Iowa and New Hampshire. In fact i think his presence is now so intimidating that all are thinking about an exit.
What no one understands is that he powerfully appeals to at least a third of the democrats as well. He has a true coalition and the only delay comes from party insiders rightly readjusting their thinking. It really happened all too fast.
In the meantime he knows how to dominate the news cycle for the next six months. Everyone else is trying to learn now he does it. They do not have enough time.
This means that a truly powerful candidate needs to enter the fray to make it into a real fight and he simply does not exist
In the meantime the Democrats are trying to implement plan B.C, and D ( Bernie, Gore, whoever ) while they still have time. All prospects are going to find a firestorm of failed policies to take the blame for and the press will not be able to lay off.
By the way children he does not have to hide his resume and legitimate accomplishments.
.Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak
In the command centers of Republican presidential campaigns, aides have drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump’s
dominance in the polls is a political summer fling, like Herman Cain in
2011 — an unsustainable boomlet dependent on megawatt celebrity, narrow
appeal and unreliable surveys of Americans with a spotty record of
actually voting in primaries.
A growing body of evidence suggests that may be wishful thinking.
A
review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his
supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting
records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad,
demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around
personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political
divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the
consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival
candidates.
In
poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite
having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate
some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he
had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among
moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and
anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and
less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters,
even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of
voting.
The unusual character of Mr. Trump’s coalition by no means guarantees his campaign will survive until next year’s primaries, let alone beyond. The diversity of his coalition could even be its undoing, if his previous support for liberal policies and donations to Democrats, for example, undermine his support among conservatives. And in the end, the polling suggests, Mr. Trump will run into a wall:
Most Republicans do not support his candidacy and seem unlikely ever to do so. Even now, more say they definitely would not vote for him than say they support him.
But the breadth of Mr. Trump’s coalition
is surprising at a time of religious, ideological and geographic
divisions in the Republican Party. It suggests he has the potential to
outdo the flash-in-the-pan candidacies that roiled the last few
Republican nominating contests. And it hints at the problem facing his
competitors and the growing pressure on them to confront him, as
several, like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, are starting to do.
His
support is not tethered to a single issue or sentiment: immigration,
economic anxiety or an anti-establishment mood. Those factors may have
created conditions for his candidacy to thrive, but his personality,
celebrity and boldness, not merely his populism and policy stances, have
let him take advantage of them.
Tellingly,
when asked to explain support for Mr. Trump in their own words, voters
of varying backgrounds used much the same language, calling him “ballsy”
and saying they admired that he “tells it like it is” and relished how
he “isn’t politically correct.”
Trumpism, the data and interviews suggest, is an attitude, not an ideology.
For
voters like Jan Mannarino, a 65-year-old retired teacher who drove an
hour from her home in Green Oak Township, Mich., to see Mr. Trump this
month, his defiance of political norms is his single greatest virtue.
“Even
if he doesn’t win, he’s teaching other politicians to stop being
politicians,” Ms. Mannarino said. “He comes on strong. He could say it
gently. But I think no one would listen.”
When
people talk about the qualities Mr. Trump would bring to the White
House, they describe the raging, merciless executive who fired people
for sport on television. Some mention trips to his golf courses, which
they admiringly note are impeccably run. A common refrain: “He’s a
person who gets things done.”
That
he has no experience in government is not a liability, many say, but
rather one of the main reasons they want him in Washington.
“We
don’t need a politician for president; we need a businessman,” said Tom
Krzyminski, 66, a hairstylist from Bay City, Mich. “That’s what we need
to get us out of the mess we’re in.”
A
New York Times review of nine nonpartisan national polls and more
public surveys in the early nominating states shows that, thus far, Mr.
Trump is outperforming his Republican rivals with constituencies they
were widely expected to dominate.
For example, he leads Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a hero to fiscal conservatives, among Tea Party
supporters, 26 percent to 13 percent, according to averages of the last
nine national polls. He leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, a
former preacher, among evangelicals, 21 percent to 12 percent. And he is
ahead of Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor and a favorite of
mainstream donors, among moderate Republicans, 22 percent to 16 percent.
National
polls, and both public and partisan pollsters, have struggled to
unravel the precise sources of Mr. Trump’s support, leaving many to
ascribe it to anger and angst in the Republican electorate. But
interviews with voters highlight the degree to which his popularity
hinges on personality — and offer an answer to an enduring mystery: Why
haven’t Mr. Trump’s outrageous statements, his lack of loyalty to the
Republican Party and his caustic attacks on rivals hurt his standing?
His
most offensive utterances have, for many Republicans, confirmed his
status as a unique outsider willing to challenge conventions, and
satisfied a craving for plain-spoken directness.
Asked
if Mr. Trump had crossed a line with his language, Carl Tomanelli, 68, a
retired New York City police officer in Londonderry, N.H., seemed
surprised by the question.
“People
are starting to see, I believe, that all this political correctness is
garbage,” he said. “I think he’s echoing what a lot of people feel and
say.”
Many say they support Mr. Trump because of his unusual statements, not in spite of them.
Lisa Carey, 51, of Greenfield, N.H., immediately cited Mr. Trump’s outspokenness when asked why his support remains so high.
“As
inappropriate as some of his comments are, I think it’s stuff that a
lot of people are thinking but afraid to say,” she said. “And I’m a
woman.”
Asked
if they think his brashness would make it more difficult for him to
work effectively as president, many voters argue the opposite.
“I
want people who are negotiating with him to believe my president when
he says he’s going to do something,” said Lori Szostkiewicz, 54, an
educator from Hampstead, N.H. “I want to negotiate from a position of
strength, not weakness.”
In
interviews with voters in Michigan and New Hampshire over the past two
weeks, after events hosted by Mr. Trump, none cited his policies as
chief motivation for backing him. Many pointed, instead, to his wealth,
saying they believed it set him apart from career politicians and freed
him of the demands of donors.
“He doesn’t need anybody’s money,” said Maureen Colcord, 60, a clinical dietitian from Derry.
Even
as dozens of national and state polls have charted Mr. Trump’s steady
ascent, Republican campaigns have taken solace in their conviction that
those surveys are flawed and misleading. In interviews, campaign
pollsters argue that such polls, conducted largely by media
organizations and universities, rely on feedback from many Republicans
who are unlikely to vote because the polls do not verify the party
registration or voting history of respondents — a fact that those
conducting the surveys concede.
New
data provided to The Times by Civis Analytics, a firm aligned with
Democrats and founded by the former chief analytics officer of the Obama
re-election campaign, shows that there is merit to those concerns, but
not enough to call Mr. Trump’s lead into question. Curious about the
Republican primary landscape, the firm decided to see what it could
learn from its own survey, at first for internal research purposes.
Unlike
most public polls, Civis’s relied on a list of registered voters that
included their voting histories, allowing it to measure Mr. Trump’s
support among those who regularly cast ballots in primary elections.
The
survey, which was conducted on landlines Aug. 10 through Wednesday and
has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points,
showed Mr. Trump’s support at 16 percent among registered voters who
identified as Republicans. That tally is less than any public poll in
more than a month, but still more than any other candidate. Ben Carson
was at 11 percent, and Mr. Bush at 10 percent
A
poll weighted to reflect the characteristics of the adult population,
like most conducted for national media organizations, would have shown
Mr. Trump faring some two points better than the Civis data, which was
adjusted to reflect the characteristics of registered voters who
identify as Republicans. The survey included 757 Republican-leaning
respondents, considerably more than other polls of the Republican
presidential field.
“In
reality his real support is less than what we see in the polling
today,” said Masahiko Aida, lead survey scientist for Civis.
The
Civis poll also hinted at a potential problem for Mr. Trump: states
that allow only registered Republicans to participate in nominating
contests, including Iowa and Nevada. He was at 14 percent among
registered Republicans in the states with party registration, compared
to 18 percent of the voters who were unaffiliated with a party.
As
expected, Mr. Trump performed best among less-frequent voters. He had
the support of 22 percent of Republican-leaning adults who did not vote
in the 2012 general election. But he still held an edge, with 15
percent, among registered Republicans who had voted in a primary since
2008.
“Whether the person voted in two or eight or 12 elections, Trump leads,” Mr. Aida said.
His
falloff in support when infrequent voters were sifted out was not
unique: Support for some of Mr. Trump’s rivals, including Mr. Bush and
Mr. Carson, declined by similar amounts, or even more, among the most
frequent voters, Civis found.
Mr.
Trump’s strength among less-frequent voters is a challenge for his
campaign, which may lack the organizing experience and infrastructure to
motivate them and turn them out in large numbers for a primary or
caucus.
But
those irregular voters, like Norman Kas-mikha, 41, a grocer from Shelby
Township, Mich., represent a real opportunity for the Republican Party,
which is determined to retake the White House in 2016 after losing the
last two campaigns.
“Right now I don’t have a second choice,” Mr. Kas-mikha said. “They all blend in to me. It’s Donald Trump — and everyone else.”
“My second choice,” he added, “might be staying at home.”
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