Wednesday, September 30, 2015

The History of Chemtrails:

 I have been avoiding this particular topic for a long time mostly because the only sources were long on conspiracy and short on science.  So let us take a run at it with this very useful report.

What is central however is that all that fuel gets burned mostly at a high elevation into generally non turbulent air allowing a wide dispersion before interacting with the cloud cover.   Wheras gasoline interacts at ground level and has vegetation to assist in cleaning it up all that jet fuel combustion products does mix into the cloud cover to produce high level smog.

What this report  brings home is that the problem is not trivial.  Those contrails do matter.  This also makes them a great medium to introduce chemical agents into the atmosphere as has been claimed by a number of folks.  So did they really do something without public oversight?

I do not know the truth but i do know that we are clearly producing a high level smog at the least.  that may be sufficient to explain climate change in the USA.

The History of Chemtrails: How to Geoengineer a Planet with Jet Fuel 
Posted: 13 Sep 2015 07:01 AM PDT

The History of Chemtrails: 

How to Geoengineer a Planet with Jet Fuel 

A Tale of Soot, Sulfur, Dirty Lies, and Shady Clouds

The Chemtrail Conspiracy as explained by Wikipedia (which is the most trustworthy spot on teh internetz, ya know):

According to the chemtrail conspiracy theory, long-lasting trails left in the sky by high-flying aircraft are chemical or biological agents deliberately sprayed for sinister purposes undisclosed to the general public.

There-in lies the Straw-man, attribution of intentional harmful actions to jet-made clouds.

The term chemtrail is a portmanteau of the words “chemical” and “trail,” just as contrail is a contraction of “condensation trail.” Believers in the conspiracy theory speculate that the purpose of the claimed chemical release may be for solar radiation management, psychological manipulation, human population control, weather modification, or biological or chemical warfare, and that the trails are causing respiratory illnesses and other health problems. Contrails are formed at high altitudes (5–10 miles or 8–16 kilometers) and if any chemicals were released at such altitude they would disperse harmlessly and fall many hundreds of miles/kilometers away, or degrade before touching the ground.

All the evidence states clearly that chemtrails, or contrails, are not a depopulation scheme. Although 10,000 deaths are directly attributed to jet exhaust each year, global population has steadily risen since the first jet flights and ever since. Each year diarrhea kills around 760,000 children under five, just saying.

What if we removed the “intent” Straw-man and take a discerning look at the facts about these unique jet-made clouds?

On the Wikipedia article there is a section titled “Contrails as chemtrails” but no mention or link to the much lengthier “Environmental Impact of Aviation” page. Furthermore, if you image search the term “chemtrails” do you know what you get? Pictures of contrails, big ugly contrails. The only difference is the word you choose to call these clouds, so let’s explore our options:

Persistent Contrails
Contrail Cirrus
Aviation Induced Cloudiness (AIC)
Aviation Induced Cirrus
Induced Cirrus Cloudiness
Jet produced cloud cover
Artificial Cloud
Global Dimming? 

So many terms, so little time.

If chemtrails are contrails, and contrails are chemtrails, is this all some sort of semantic ninjitsu

The answer is Yes.

Here is the real conspiracy: Contrails are really screwing up the atmosphere, trapping heat, possibly exacerbating drought conditions under high traffic corridors, and the “aviation industry” does not want you, or anyone else, to know the facts. Even worse, by 2050 ground-based astronomy may be a thing of the past due to jet produced cloud cover, and that may be the tip of a very big iceberg. What will Solar Energy do to combat these clouded skies?

Here is a timeline that will open your eyes to the real Contrail Conundrum, the circumvention of international law and regulation to geoengineer our skies using contrails and sulfur-doped fuels, and the hell we will pay if the plans to use biofuels and Pepto-bismol for Contrail-Control come to pass.

The truth is scarier than fiction.

I will be presenting this information to the EPA at a hearing August 11, 2015

The Shady History of Jet Trails


This extensive list will open your eyes to all things that shall not be mentioned by chemtrail believer nor debunker, nonetheless, these are facts:

April 6, 1948
First airliner with full jet power flown
July 27, 1949
First purpose-built jet airliner takes flight
December 6, 1958

“As you know our entire economy is dependent upon tourist trade, which is predicated on our bright sunshine and warm climate.

Recently our sky has resembled a mob of exuberant sky riders performing an aerial circus.

The ‘contrails’ are breaking down into a haze and creating a cloud-like appearance in the sky.

The Air Force, so far, is flabbergasted.”

December 1968

Jets Increase Clouds

Reid A. Bryson said that jet aircraft contrails were one of the more recent types of cirrus clouds, which are comprised of ice crystals at high altitude.

Where jets are operating today, cirrus clouds have increased by 5% to 10%, Bryson said.

He estimated that if the day came when 300 supersonic transports were in the air at one time, the region of operation of most SST’s “might easily be 100% covered with cirrus clouds.”

The net effect of this would be further to reduce the heating of the earth, and blue skies might become a rarity.

January 1970

Illinois and New Jersey officials will not settle pollution suits against the nation’s major airlines out of court, despite Tuesday’s agreement between the airlines and the federal government to lean up the jet aircraft exhaust.

Representatives of 31 major domestic airlines agreed to install “burner cans” to eliminate most of the smoke from their nearly 1,000 aircraft by 1972.

The government will tell the nation’s 43 commercial airlines Tuesday that they must end pollution of the skies with jet engine smoke by 1972 or face punitive legislation from Congress.

Mainly at issue is the installation of a redesigned combuster – or burner can – on 3,000 existing commercial jet engines of one maker that reportedly account for 70 percent of all smoke pollution from airliners.


October 1970

“likely contrails are affecting precipitation to a much greater extent than are present deliberate seeding operations.”

September 1971

A jet air plane in one landing and takeoff drenches the environment with as much soot as 2,500 automobiles produce in a entire day… soot, gases of carbon monoxide, aldehydes (irritants in smog), hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides. 10,000 tons of particulate matter (three airports)

September 1972

There will be a marked aesthetic improvement, since the so-called burner cans cut out something like 70 percent of the visible pollution and thus the familiar “black belch” will be seen no more.

July 1974

“Growing global population pressures and predicted future food shortages dictate that man fully explore his potential use of solar energy. … Interest is concentrated on the feasibility of mesoscale (~ 100-300 km) weather modification through solar energy absorption by carbon aerosol particles of the size ~ 0.1 µm [micrometer, 100 nanometer] or less”

December 1980

Roger O’Neil, NBC News, Champaign, Illinois. Aired on 12/30/1980.


On clear days, you can often see long white lines being traced high in the sky. They are contrails of jet aircraft. They’re actually long, slender clouds. Other men are finding them especially fascinating because the theory is being developed that those long, white lines may be changing our weather for the better. Details from Roger O’Neil.

ROGER O’NEIL, reporting:

The exhaust from jet engines, usually seen as long, thin trails of white clouds behind high-flying jet airplanes, may be a big reason why there are 30 fewer days of sunshine a year in the Midwest now than there were in 1900. The daily range between high and low temperatures has also narrowed. Weather researchers, studying cloud cover in 10 Midwestern states, found a sharp increase in cloudiness with the increase in commercial jet travel, particularly in the main East-West jet corridor, there were even more clouds. A jet produces a contrail or cloud because its exhaust consists primarily of water vapor.

RICHARD SEMONIN (Illinois Institute of Natural Resources): In the absence of natural clouds, given the correct atmospheric condition, jet aircraft in high frequency can almost completely cover the atmosphere, visible atmosphere, with clouds.

O’NEIL: Semonin says, unlike most changes in the atmosphere caused by man, this one is beneficial. Clouds help farmers in the Midwest by blocking the sun. Temperature extremes can damage plants and speed up the evaporation of soil moisture. In the Winter, city people benefit because clouds act as a blanket, preventing warm air from escaping into the atmosphere. No one is trying to make clouds now using jet engines, but this study suggests that jet travel is inadvertently making our days more cloudy and some day, weather researchers may be able to use jets on purpose to change our weather.
September 1982


International Cirrus Experiment,

Participants: France, Germany, United Kingdom

April 1990
Hughes Aircraft Company suggests Geoengineering jet fuel.

The particles may be seeded by dispersal from seeding aircraft; one exemplary technique may be via the jet fuel as suggested by prior work regarding the metallic particles. Once the tiny particles have been dispersed into the atmosphere, the particles may remain in suspension for up to one year.

Fuel sulfur content tested as a source of contrail production.

April – May, 1996

The SUCCESS project was conducted from the Kansas State University airport facilities in Salina, Kansas from April 8, 1996 until May 10, 1996, with an extension from May 10 until May 15, 1996 at NASA’s Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Ca. SUCCESS had several objectives:

to better determine the radiative properties of cirrus clouds and of contrails so that satellite observations can more reliably measure their impact on the Earth’s radiation budget.
to determine how cirrus clouds form, whether the exhaust from subsonic aircraft presently affects the formation of cirrus clouds, and if the exhaust does affect the clouds whether the changes induced are of climatological significance. 

to develop and test several new instruments. 

to better determine the characteristics of gaseous and particulate exhaust products from subsonic aircraft and their evolution in the region near the aircraft 


August 1997

Geoengineering SRM proposed by Edward Teller, Lowell Wood, Roderick Hyde at Lawrence Livermoore National Labs

“It may well be feasible to transport and disperse enough SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide or SO3 or H2SO4) into the stratosphere to produce the desired insolation modulation effect”
March 1998

August 1999

Geoengineering Models by Edward Teller, Lowell Wood, Roderick Hyde, Ken Caldeira
November 2000

September 11, 2001

All planes grounded for three days due to terrorist attack. Contrails seen on satellite from six fighter jets cover more than 11,000 square miles. From The Contrail Effect:

At least that was the case until September 11, 2001. For the first time since the jet age began, virtually all aircraft were grounded over the United States for three days. Even as they tried like the rest of us to absorb the enormity of the terrorist attacks, climatologists realized they had an unprecedented opportunity to scrutinize individual contrails, and several studies were quickly launched.

One study looked at the aforementioned contrails that grew to cover 7,700 square miles. Those condensation trails arose in the wake of six military aircraft flying between Virginia and Pennsylvania on September 12, 2001. From those isolated contrails, unmixed as they were with the usual dozens of others, Patrick Minnis, a senior research scientist at NASA’s Langely Research Center, and his colleagues were able to gain valuable insight into how a single contrail forms. Those once-in-a-lifetime data sets are so useful that Minnis is about to analyze them again in an expanded study.

Another study that took advantage of the grounding gave striking evidence of what contrails can do. David Travis of the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater and two colleagues measured the difference, over those three contrail-free days, between the highest daytime temperature and the lowest nighttime temperature across the continental U.S. They compared those data with the average range in day-night temperatures for the period 1971-2000, again across the contiguous 48 states. Travis’s team discovered that from roughly midday September 11 to midday September 14, the days had become warmer and the nights cooler, with the overall range greater by about two degrees Fahrenheit.

These results suggest that contrails can suppress both daytime highs (by reflecting sunlight back to space) and nighttime lows (by trapping radiated heat). That is, they can be both cooling and warming clouds. But what is the net effect? Do they cool more than they warm, or vice versa? “Well, the assumption is a net warming,” Travis says, “but there is a lot of argument still going on about how much of a warming effect they produce.”

July 2004

July 2006

CBS News, Aired July 29, 2006 2:19 PM

Contrails are lines of exhaust left by planes. It can be fun to watch them as they crisscross the sky. But as Anthony Mason reports, some people think they could spell trouble for the planet.

New research suggests that jet exhaust is four times better at trapping heat than ground emissions with contrails playing a critical role. Contrails form at high altitudes when hot jet engines pass through cold moist air. The clouds spread out trapping heat rising from the surface.

August 2006

Stratospheric sulfur injection to reflect sunlight


George W. Bush mandates “Greenwashing” of the fossil fuel industry and the future of jet fuel gets real weird, chicken fat weird.

1. Greenwashing (a compound word modelled on “whitewash”), or “green sheen,” is a form of spin in which green PR or green marketing is deceptively used to promote the perception that an organization’s products, aims or policies are environmentally friendly.

Research Presentation: Biodiesel from Biodiesel
February 2007
93’000 flights per day, watch this mind blowing animation!
This animation shows all scheduled flights over a 24h period (based on 2008 data). Every day 93’000 flights are starting from approx. 9’000 airports. At all time there are between 8’000 and 13’000 airplanes in the air. This animation was produced to be shown on the high definition 3D-Globe “Orbitarium” in Technorama – The Swiss Science Center in collaboration with Institute of Applied Information Technology InIT, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Winterthur.
February 2008

Collaborative Research: On Hurricane Modification by Carbon Black Dispersion: Methods, Risk Mitigation, and Risk Communication – Dr. Moshe Alamaro

This presentation focused on the use of carbon black aerosol (CBA) to selectively heat parts of the atmosphere by dispersion of CBA above a hurricane. This scenario is motivated by the fact that the energy cycle of a hurricane may be represented as a Carnot heat engine, and reducing the contrast between “hot and cold reservoirs” should reduce the power of a hurricane and the CBA will absorb incident solar radiation to warm the “cold reservoir.” Objectives of this study are to demonstrate direct control of the intensity or track of simulated hurricanes; to quantify amounts of CBA needed; to enhance understanding of the web of physical processes that power hurricanes in relation to the overall thermodynamics of hurricanes; to determine optimal dispersion scenarios; to enhance understanding of the radiative and flow properties of CBA; to establish causes, effects, and outcomes of CBA dispersion; and to develop methods to communicate risk to the public of large-scale weather modification efforts. To accomplish all this we will employ a diverse set of tools and methods, including a high-resolution mesoscale numerical weather prediction model to simulate hurricanes and the effect of adding CBA; engineering tools to develop manufacturing, transport, and dispersion strategies; and both semi-structured interviews and structured surveys to capture expert information and lay public perceptions.

April 21, 2008

Use of commuter aircraft with their jet fuels doped with aerosol generators is another possibility. Also the use of UAVs or blimps for aerosol dispersal could be considered. Potential adverse consequences, however, are likely including impacts on precipitation, local cold temperature extremes (which would also impact fossil fuel demands) and the hydrological cycle. …

3.4 Seeding cirrus clouds or making more contrails

On an annual average clouds cover between 55 to 60% of the earth (Matveev 1984) and much of that cloud cover consists of middle and high clouds. It is thought that globally cirrus clouds contribute to warming of the atmosphere owing to their contribution to downward transfer of LW radiation. In other words they are a greenhouse agent. Human activity is already modifying the cirrus clouds through the production of aircraft contrails. Kuhn (1970) found that contrails depleted solar radiation and increased downward LW radiation but during the daytime their shortwave influence dominates and they contribute to a net surface cooling. Kuhn (1970) calculated that if contrails persist over 24h their net effect would be cooling. Others have concluded that they lead to surface warming (Liou et al. 1991; Schumann 1994) but Sassen (1997) notes that the sign of the climatic impact of contrails is dependent upon particle size. Global estimates of the effects of contrails are they contribute to a net warming (Minnis et al. 2004).

It has even been proposed to seed in clear air in the upper troposphere to produce artificial cirrus which would warm the surface enough to reduce cold-season heating demands (Detwiler and Cho 1982). So the prospects for seeding cirrus to contribute to global surface cooling do not seem to be very good.

The only approach that might be feasible is to perform wide-area seeding with soot or carbonaceous aerosols which would absorb solar radiation and warm cirrus layers enough to perhaps dissipate cirrus clouds (a semi-direct effect). This strategy would be similar to that proposed by Watts (1997) and Crutzen (2006) for implementation in the stratosphere. As noted by Crutzen (2006) only 1.7% of the mass of sulfur is needed to produce a similar magnitude of surface cooling. Application at cirrus levels in the upper troposphere would have the double benefit of absorbing solar radiation thus contributing to surface cooling and dissipating cirrus clouds which would increase outgoing longwave radiation. Of course, the soot that becomes attached to ice crystals will reduce the albedo of cirrus thus countering the longwave warming effect to some degree. In addition, there is evidence that soot particles can act as ice nuclei, thus contributing to greater concentrations of ice crystals by heterogeneous nucleation but possibly reduced crystal production by homogeneous nucleation (DeMott et al. 1994; Kärcher et al. 2007). Thus it would be best to engineer carbonaceous aerosol to be ineffective as IN.

The possible adverse consequences of such a procedure can only be conjectured at this time but are mostly likely to impact the hydrological cycle. Complex chemical, cloud-resolving, and global models are required to evaluate the feasibility of this approach and to estimate possible adverse consequences. The feasibility of this approach in terms of implementation strategies is probably comparable to seeding sulfates in the lower stratosphere. The costs would be similar to Crutzen’s estimates for stratospheric seeding.

April 1, 2009

“dissolved or suspended in their jet fuel and later burned with the fuel to create seeding aerosol, or (2) injected into the hot engine exhaust, which should vaporize the seeding material, allowing it to condense as aerosol in the jet contrail”

Greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds regulate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing are more negative than −2.8Wm−2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7Wm−2). A potential delivery mechanism for the seeding material is already in place: the airline industry. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are relatively short, the climate might return to its normal state within months after stopping the geoengineering experiment. The main known drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It does not have many of the drawbacks that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has.

April 7, 2009

IPCC Radiative Forcing estimates do not account for contrails that have fanned out, turning into cirrus clouds. Epic research paper points out the obvious.

AIC [aviation induced cloudiness] RFs for all the 2020 forecast and 2050 scenarios were scaled by fuel usage from the 2005 AIC RF value but are not included in the RF totals presented here. The methods by which the 2050 RFs have been calculated are simplified, particularly for O3, CH4 and contrail impacts. As such, the results presented here are indicative and should be followed up with a larger-scale international multimodel effort. In the case of AIC, we highlight that no process-based model has yet been presented in the literature and there is an urgent need for such modelling.

March 2009

COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC) aims to quantify the climate role of line shaped contrails caused by air-traffic that you often see in the sky. In particular, we aim to understand how they can sometimes spread into larger cloud decks. Such spreading contrails could add significantly to the CO2-driven climate impacts of aviation, but estimates of their effect are very uncertain.

COSIC has made direct measurements of spreading contrail using dedicated flights over the UK with the BAe-146-301 large Atmospheric Research Aircraft. These measurements are now being used to incorporate spreading contrails into models of climate change. COSIC also aims to understand various stakeholder needs for aviation-climate science and communicate science results in the most appropriate way to the industry, policy makers and the public.

COSIC is a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) sponsored project led by the University of Leeds, collaborating with the Universities of Manchester and Reading, the UK Met Office, the Facility For Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) and the Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR, Germany.

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent e

No comments: