The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
HF Conditions 12 November to 15 November 2010: Poor to Fair
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during late 2010, and through 2011.
For reference on Ionospheric propagation, including how background X-ray influences Ionospheric conditions, see this reference by the late Bob Brown, NM7M, Ph.D. from U.C.Berkeley.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels every day for 25-30 October, and then decreased to predominantly moderate levels on 31 October.
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled for 25-26 October. Quiet levels prevailed for the remainder of the period for 27-31 October. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft showed a high speed solar wind stream in progress at the beginning of the interval, with steadily decreasing solar wind velocities. The peak velocities of the high speed stream occurred on 25 October with values in the 600-660 km/s range, but had decayed to nominal background speeds around 1445 UTC on 28 October. A weak transient signature was observed at ACE on 31 October, possibly due to a slow, Earth-directed CME that occurred on the 26th. However, there was not any significant geomagnetic response.