USA Canada Trade War End Game

 

somewhere someplace all this must end and allow cooler heads to sort it out.  What i find disconcerting is that we all saw Trump as a decisive player who quickly abandons failed policy.  instead he is stuck on stupid when any rational player would run.

The most generous explanation is that he has mentally regressed to spoiled childhood.  And should be removed forthwith because he is no longer metally functional.  none of this can be a plan.

all this is a gift for the Canadfian polity because it allows them to rewrite all terms of trade with the USA  and all those gentlemans agreements long overdue for renegotiation.  understand the USA forced multiple compromises for decades that benefited the USA mostly and Canada barely.

Grain going to the gulf makes no sense unless you starve alternate infrastructure of capital.  with the mississippi losing its navigation ability, it now makes more sernse for all grain in the midwest to now tyransit through the great lakes.

  even geography is working against the USA.  And if you must use rail, then it is by Canadian carrier to Mexico city ,the gulf, Montreal or Price rupert.  This was the long term trend which has now become ASAP.  And do not forget Churchill which is half the distance from Winnepeg to Chicago.  

what no one has addressed is the pending disaster facing USA maufacturing.  

Yet Ford, J&J and Walmart have already enacted plans to move corporate into Canada and this is meant to force USA capitulation at the least and will likely still happen because it puts them behind a powerful firewall against political turbulance forever.  If you are a global corporation this works.   This also means at least three dozen mega corps are also prospects.

In the meantime every manufacturer can shift into Canada and get their raw matetials duty free. they can also bring their workers and families with them at speed.

In the merantime, somewhere i heard around 500,000 potential employees are already crossing the border per month which makes moving your factory attractive.

my key point is that trade volitility makes factory migration to Canada way more compelling compared to any transit to China or India and it already appears to be underway.

If any of these policies had been enacted before this trade war  there would have been hell to pay.  Gentlemans agreement and all that.

my point is that the USA helped finace and build those aluminimum smelters in Canada while blocking downstream manufacturing back in the day by putting that all close to the markets.  that was a long time ago and not manufacturing at global scale in Canada no longer makes sense.  Then be a fool and throw on a tariff.

The manufacturing attraction of the St lawrence Seaway becomes impossible bto ignore.  

Even if the USA comes to its senses and cancelled all tariffs, rebuilding trust will take decades while the economics of shifting north remains now fully weaponized.  This also means wall street will help push those companies north, just as they pushed companies to china.

In the meantime, Canada is on a warpath to manufacture a working trade coalition of the willing which already includes the EU, Britain, Brazil and Peru, and Japan and SEasia and soon india.  This is also launching the full on Canadian arms industry tied to europe as well and competing directly with the USA..  This puts paid to the log standing USA strategy of dependence.

also do understand that Canada is central to global mining finance as well.  the USA is a bit player there.