Thursday, June 1, 2023

Future Population is All About Willing Mothers and Surrogate Mothers

Slowly folks are waking up to the fact that we have a problem and that it will need direct intervention to properly resolve.  It is also global.  The other global problem is poverty which is caused by disfunctional natural community economic protocols inherited from our past.  We need to actually fix both and doing everything wrong first is an unpleasent option.

By empowering the natural community properly we can also establish a working protocol in which all 18 year old girls take on the task of bearing four children for their community, but also have the community commit to providing full child care.  Obviously overlap will occur but will never be mandatory and will shake out natural mothers able to take on the childcare burden.  We have this sort of today if you can pay for it of course.

This protocol machinery will easily put us on track to providing an optimal global population approaching 100,000,000,000 after which natural economic decisions can establish steady state merely by dropping the four down to three or perhaps as needed to two.

My take home though is that this has to be global as soon as possible.  Of course we are all going to discover how dire it all is over the next decade as the numbers of mothers begins to seriously decline.  Of course ,the advent of the age reversal will initially increase motherhood availability and help slow the decline.  This also means superior child birth experience as well.

And no, an artificial womb is likely a poor prospect.

Future Population is All About Willing Mothers and Surrogate Mothers

May 27, 2023 by Brian Wang

Total fertility rate is the average number of babies that a woman will have in a particular population. However, only half of those babies will be girls to become future mothers. Two people had the children but if they have only one child then only half of the couples have a girl who could be a future mother. Women are fertile from 15 to 39. All developed countries other than Israel are below replacement level birthrates. This means that on average the mothers and fathers are not having the children needed to replace the couple.

I will describe how this causes delayed population collapse and what can be done to possibly fix this global problem. The low birthrate problem can be fixed or mitigated by giving free medical procedures to harvest younger and healthier eggs and freezing them for later surrogate mothers. The immigration and other free social service policies should be used to close the birthrate shortage.

A daughter born in 2023 could have children from 2038 to 2062. However, there would only be half as many potential mothers for a country that has TFR 1.0 for two decades. Such a country would need average fertility to go to 4.0 for two decades to recover from two decadew of 1.0 TFR. Today, people on average are dying when they are 85 or even 90. If a country has 40 years with a low birthrate, the population would not be cratering for a few decades but the number of fertile women could drop to 25-30% of the old level.

The number of girls in Japan of age 0-10 is 4.25 million. There are 6.3 million Japanese women of age 30-39 who are aging out of fertility.

Japan is losing 2 million women per decade in terms of fertile women.

By 2300, Japan could have only 2-3 million people from its current population of 122 million. However, the low number of mothers would be locked in sixty years before each step down in population.

China will soon be losing 25-30 million fertile women per decade. If those women also only have one child in their life time, then there will be another halving fertile women in 2050-2080.

South Korea has a total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.78 and China has a TFR of 1.18. Taiwan and other asian and European countries have those levels of fertility as well.

China’s population is 1.42 billion people. Sustaining that population level if people have a life expectancy of 100 would require 10 million babies per year with each woman having 2.1 children.

Options for Increasing Fertility

The policies for making society more family and baby friendly have been tried in many European countries and the best results increase total factor fertility from about 1.2 to 1.5.

Longevity does not improve the situation. Increasing the fertile ages for women beyond 40 and encouraging those older women to have babies would improve the situation. The other option is to encourage (bribe) women to freeze eggs when they are young and the eggs are healthy. Have societal arrangements made to pay for childcare, education and medical procedures for all mothers and surrogate mothers and their children.

Japan can either encourage 200,000 more of their own women to surrogate children or encourage the immigration of 200,000 women per year who would be willing and eager to surrogate children. Japan’s aging population is causing an abundance of abandoned houses. Surrogate mothers and their families and any Japanese women having two or more children could be given massively subsidized and even free housing.

Fertility and Age

Your chance of conceiving quickly does depend on your age. Women are most fertile between the ages of 20 and 24. It can take much longer to get pregnant when you hit your late 30s or early 40s. You may have problems conceiving at all.

Most couples (85 per cent) will conceive within a year if they stop using contraception and have regular sex. Regular sex means making love every two to three days throughout your cycle. This gives you the best chance of conceiving.

About half of the women who don’t get pregnant in the first year do conceive during the following year. Another one per cent get pregnant if they keep trying for another year. So it pays to keep trying. This leaves about seven per cent of couples in the general population who do not conceive within three years.

Figures for women aged 35 are similar, with 94 per cent conceiving within three years. By 38 years of age only 77 per cent of women fall pregnant within three years.

Egg Freezing Statistics

The overall chance of a live birth from the frozen eggs was 39 percent. But among women who were younger than 38 when they froze their eggs, the live birthrate was 51 percent. It rose to 70 percent if women younger than 38 also thawed 20 or more eggs.

The age of the woman when she used the eggs to try to have a baby did not make a difference — all that mattered was how old a woman was when she froze her eggs and how many she froze.

Among IVF clinics in the United States, the success rate for a healthy birth is as high as 75%. This percentage rises to 95% once the gestational surrogate is pregnant.

Approximately 1.9 percent of all babies born in the USA annually are conceived using some form of assisted reproductive technology. Success is closely related to the age of the egg provider. Using donor eggs results in a 65-70% live birth rate per embryo transfer, which increases to 75-80% if PGT-A is used. Birth rates gradually decline beyond the age of 35 and are lowest for women over 40.

Denmark has 8 to 10% of all babies born in the country using assisted reproduction. This is the highest proportional rate of any country.

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