Saturday, August 21, 2010

China Rising

China’s rising military capacity is naturally gaining attention.  Yet its needs are fairly modest.  It wants the ability to defend itself although the need for that is actually declining as it develops binding relationships with all its neighbors.  The idea itself is popular and they have a ready market for their expanding industrial base.  Thus we have as we have in the USA a military industrial lobby that often drives national agendas.

That is naturally a difficult national problem as the US has also learned.  It does not shut down and go asleep when no treat is in the offing.

There are really three dangers.  The leadership is not truly secure as an elected regime and will always be at least partly mistrusted because of this.  This can change though fairly quickly because the Chinese people themselves are in position now to demand it.  Every strike and demonstration is educating the people about democratic activism.

The second danger is that they decide to move on Taiwan.  It is not necessary but a military mindset will rationalize it.  The leadership has to be strong enough to rein them in and perhaps allow a full easing of relations.  Once free trade and passage is established, it is likely only a matter of time before Taiwan may join of its own free will.  Hell, just recognize the historic claims of Taiwanese citizens in china and you will almost buy them.  It could all be done with sugar as China transitions to a democratic political; system not far removed from what is in Taiwan today.

The third thorn is North Korea which forces the USA to maintain an unwelcome presence in South Korea.  The US wants to go home.  It is no longer in China’s interest to prop up North Korea and they have South Korea prepared to pay the price of repairing the wreckage.  Let them and China has a dynamic friend in the region that is a natural ally.

Beyond that the oceans need security and a general alliance with the USA will solve all that and wonderfully project Chinese prestige.  Also buy an aircraft carrier.  The USA has far too many of them and China does not need to start building the damn things as they are about to be come obsolete except as they are presently used to support land operations elsewhere.  The US deserves that task

China Rising

Posted by William R. Hawkins on Aug 20th, 2010 and filed under FrontPage.

On August 16, the annual report to Congress on the Chinese military was released by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). There had beenspeculation that the White House wanted to hold the April Nuclear SecuritySummit and the May U.S.-China Security and Economic Dialogue before the report became public. President Barack Obama hoped to make diplomatic progress with Beijing before attention was drawn to China’s military buildup. The talks proved futile. And since May, there have been a series of competing naval maneuvers near the Korean peninsula and in the South China Sea, which have highlighted the growing tensions between Beijing’s ambitions and the security interests of the United States and others along the Pacific Rim.

The 83-page Pentagon study looks at all aspects of the People’s Republic of China’s military strategy, but three areas warrant particular attention: missiles, naval capabilities, and the defense industry. According to the OSD analysis:

China has the most active land-based ballistic and cruise missile program in the world. It is developing and testing several new classes and variants of offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading certain missile systems, and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses.

China has a small but growing force of mobile ICBMs capable of hitting targets in most of the United States. Under the umbrella of this deterrent force, China is deploying a large number of short and medium range missiles that could devastate its neighbors with a mix of nuclear and conventional warheads. By the end of last year, over 1,000 short range ballistic missiles were deployed within range of Taiwan. And though the Taipei government has attempted to improve relations with the mainland through expanded trade and more open travel, Beijing has continued its military buildup aimed at coercing the island democracy to surrender to the Chinese dictatorship.

Capturing Taiwan would help China penetrate the “first island chain” that runs from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines and then to Indonesia. Beijing thinks of the waters between the mainland and the island nations to the east as being Chinese territorial seas. The OSD report notes that the PRC is developing its own legal doctrine which is “inconsistent with international law” in regard to control of the trade routes and seabed resources of the region. To put muscle behind its claims, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) held major air and naval exercises in the East China and South China seas in June and July. Beijing also loudly protested U.S. Navy deployments in the Sea of Japan and South China Sea, and the upcoming joint U.S.-South Korea exercise in the Yellow Sea.

The PLAN has been expanding, backed by the world’s second largest ship building industry. The OSD report states, “The PLA Navy has the largest force of principal combatants, submarines, and amphibious warfare ships in Asia. China’s naval forces include some 75 principal combatants, more than 60 submarines, 55 medium and large amphibious ships, and roughly 85 missile-equipped patrol craft.” A new naval base on Hainan Island is nearly complete, with underground facilities for submarines and advanced surface warships within easy striking range of the major trade routes of the South China Sea.

A priority is the construction of new nuclear powered and diesel-electric attack submarines armed with anti-ship cruise missiles. China is also developing an anti-ship ballistic missile with a range in excess of 1,000 miles, with a maneuverable warhead. It is designed to strike U.S. aircraft carriers before their fighters are within range of China, with a weapon that would be hard to dodge or intercept.

China has it own aircraft carrier development program. “The PRC shipbuilding industry could start construction of an indigenous platform by the end of this year. China is interested in building multiple operational aircraft carriers with support ships in the next decade,” says the report. A July 30 editorial in the Communist Party newspaper Global Times stated, “The public strongly desires an aircraft carrier because of the prestige associated with one, the power it projects to the rest of the world and the sense of defensive security it provides.”

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