Post War configuaration

 The Ukraine Russia War is approaching it completion however arranged.  Think several months perhaps.

To start with the Ukraines military budget has climbed from one billion to a present 35 billion.  this means that the Ukraine is now the bleeding edge of NATO.  The Ukraine will become part of NATO.

At the same time the entire outpput of the Russian military industrial complex has been massively reduced  leaving minimal effective tools to hand.  A death spiral is at hand.

What is way worse is that soldier training is not obviously improving  overall.  While the ukraine training is now at NATO standard becsanse they have learned to rotate through training sessions.

Sooner than later, the Russians will be unable to stop a broad front combined arms assault able to open a blocking front that cuts off crimea and confronts northward essentially reducing the length of the front.  At some point, a small force will be ablle to rumble Russians out of Crimea.

I do think that blowing a major salient into Russian positions will cause the Russians to seek a ceasefire, just as happened in 1918.  We easily forget how totally Amiens put the German General Staff on the back foot in 1918 and how local unstoppability of the Canada Corp in its 100 day advance finished them.  We are now reaching this type of climax.

Recall arriving USA troops numbering 2 million were largely replacing massive French loses of 5;6 million including wounded.  Germany had 6.1 million casulties.  Breaking that stalemate mattered a lot more than pure numbers.

The strategic stalemate itself must be broken as a last act in this conflict.

The stage will be set for two things:

1  I hope we all submit to a general border commision covering all the Eastern borders including the Causasus at least.  too many historical issues to leave dormant. Stalin was horrible but he exiled Germans and Poles and many others to end a long list of causi bella.  Dual citizenship is a beterr solution allowing an organic resolution.

2  Russia itself needs to become a NATO member and NATO needs to deploy a forward force out to Eastern Siberia to prevent Chinese adventurism.  The actual settlement agreement likely needs this deployemt as a sign of good will.  No point in negotiating when armies are crossing borders in the East.