China Huge Aging and Population Problems Are Already Bad and Will Get Worse

I also think that the Chinese population is deeply inflated as well.  As said, what has been put in motion will likely bottom at under 500,000,000 real.  This will take decades, but the trendline has not even been addressed yet.

What does disturb me is that Japan has not acted to change this.  Just how many mothers do you have and why are you not mobalizing them now.  This is timely.

As i have posted ,we need to adopt a new economic protocol that obligates four babies per mother everywhere.  I have plenty to say on this but we need political consensus.

China Huge Aging and Population Problems Are Already Bad and Will Get Worse

October 20, 2025 

by Brian Wang

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/10/china-huge-aging-and-population-problems-are-already-bad-and-will-get-worse.html

Japan is decades ahead of the rest of the world with an aging and shrinking population. There are some who claim we don’t know what will happen with future populations. However, the next 20 years are very clear for population impacts on workforce and retirement. People who will be 20 years older are alive today. China already has about 50% of Japan’s aging population effects. Real estate price drops and drags on GDP and economy. China has not hit full Japanification, but full Japanification for the next 2 decades is inevitable. The population pyramid show that there is a missing 100 million youth from 0-18.

Goldman Sachs projects China’s property crisis could worsen. They forecast home prices potentially falling another 10% by 2027. This is already the fourth year of the property crisis.

By 2035, 400 million people will be 60 years and above and account for 30 percent of the population. China could have 500 million people over 60 in 2048 and the overall population could drop to 1.1 to 1.2 billion in 2050.

Japan shrinking workforce is projected to decline further from now to 2050 and beyond. It has shaved 0.7-0.9 percentage points off annual GDP growth, contributing to Japan’s lost decades of stagnation.

Japan has an epidemic of old people dying alone (Kodokushi). This is a growing crisis, with an estimated 68,000 cases in 2024—up from 32,000 in 2009—and over 17,000 in the first quarter alone. Mostly affecting men over 50 living solo. The bodies often go undiscovered for weeks due to isolation, with decomposition complicating identification. It’s tied to economic slumps forcing early retirements. There are reports that the epidemic of old people dying alone in China is about 100,000 cases per year. China having the one child policy increases the risk of no family for old people. By 2040, China could be looking at 500,000 to over 1 million cases per year of dying alone. 4-10% of elderly deaths.

China’s aging and shrinking population is already exerting significant downward pressure on economic growth. China hits super-aged (20% over 65) by 2035 while it happened in Japan in 2025. China aging shock will hit harder and faster without Japan’s decades of gradual adjustment.

China’s workforce peaked at about 1.01 billion in 2015 and has since declined by roughly 5-6 million annually. This is contributing to labor shortages in manufacturing, construction, and services. This has reduced potential GDP growth by an estimated 0.5-0.7 percentage points (pp) per year currently, according to IMF. Fewer workers mean lower productivity and consumption. Combined with an old-age dependency ratio rising to 22% (from 13% in 2010), it strains pension and healthcare systems, diverting fiscal resources from investment.

The property sector, once 25-30% of GDP, contracted by 10-15% in 2024-2025, dragging overall growth by 1-2 pp. New home sales fell 20-25% year-over-year in early 2025, inventory surplus hit 700 million sqm (enough for 3-4 years of demand), and prices dropped 5-10% in major cities.

Between 2030 and 2035, Japan will potentially see one-third of all homes sitting vacant.

Household wealth erosion is equivalent to 10-15% of GDP in losses. This has curbed consumption, with retail sales growth at just 3-4% vs. pre-crisis 8%. 2025 GDP growth of around 4.5% (below the 5% target) with structural drags totaling 1.5-2.5 pp.

Local governments face $9-10 trillion in hidden debt from land sales collapse, forcing austerity.

The drags are expected to intensify as the workforce shrinks faster by 25 million cumulatively from 2025-2030. The population will decline by about 15 million. Aging will could be a 1.1-1.4 pp total drag by 2030 per AMRO and World Bank models. This is about $300 billion in foregone output annually.

Productivity losses from fewer innovators and consumers could shave another 0.3-0.5 pp, pushing per capita growth below 3%.

Real estate woes will worsen with demand falling 15-20% further due to fewer young buyers. Unsold inventory may double, leading to more developer defaults.

Youth unemployment rates hovering around 15-20% in recent years.

Real estate woes will worsen with demand falling 15-20% further due to fewer young buyers. Unsold inventory may double, leading to more developer defaults (Evergrande-style crises). This could subtract 1.5-2.5 pp from growth yearly. This is causing banking problems with non-performing loans at 5-7% and construction employment is down 10-15%.

China’s demographic pyramid is terrible. There is a huge drop in the 0-18 ages and this is not some forecast. This is what has already happened. Any major turnaround is over two decades away.

China is aging twice as fast as Japan. Its over-65 share rose from 7% in 2015 to 15% in 2025. Japan’s rose 12% to 29% over the same 2015-2025. China’s fertility at 1.0 versus Japan’s 1.2-1.3. China’s population could drop 200 million by 2050 and outpace Japan’s 16% decline 2025-2050 decline.

China’s real estate prices have fallen 20-30% from peaks. China has about 30 million vacant units versus Japan’s 9 million.

The next 20 years of work force decline are locked-in. The aging of the median age of the overall population from 41 to 50 is pretty much locked-in.