Monday, December 8, 2008

Biochar by Lisa Abend

A recent revelation for me on biochar was the understanding that it was the advent of the steel axe that made slash and burn practical. Prior to that, the Indios would need to maximize the fertility and productivity of any land that was cleared and maintained for their livelihood.

This is a well written recent article on the subject that nicely covers the development to date. My long time readers will note that more and more reports of trials around the globe are popping up with impressive success.
In fact we have yet to see a serious setback anywhere, although some ruined soils are slower to respond to the treatment as could be expected.

This all means that global fertility and productivity of soils in place are going to increase substantially over the next twenty years as we master the methodology.

It is also worth saying that the naysayers are fading and that the scientific explanation that I was one of the first to proffer eighteen months ago is slowly working into the ongoing debate. That the role of the carbon as a solid crystalline acid is to grab and hold nutrients is not obvious yet that is what happens.

My knowledge of that allowed me to immediately accept terra preta, since I had made the conjecture that activated charcoal would be as good as zeolites as a soil additive. A decade earlier I had reviewed work done by Cuba on zeolites and that had led to a review of an article in Scientific American on solid crystalline acids that tied it all together and led to the conjecture.

Doing anything about it was impossible because of the long lead times associated with implementing new agricultural methodology. I was thus delighted to discover the work on terra preta eighteen months ago and am equally delighted to watch the rapid progress it is now making around the globe.

There is nothing like a two thousand year field trial in the middle of the worst soils on earth to run off the regulatory crowd.

I would like to see many more documentaries and I would like to do one in which we simulate production methods using primitive techniques and even minimal farm equipment. I have written a lot on that subject.

World - Carbon: The Biochar Solution

Lisa Abend

On his farm in the hills of west virginia, Josh Frye isn't raising chickens just for meat. He is also raising them for their manure. Through a process that some scientists tout as a solution to climate change, food shortages and the energy crisis, Frye is transforming the waste into a charcoal-like substance called biochar that in the long run could be far better for the world than chicken nuggets. "It might look like this is just a poultry farm," says Frye. "But it's a char farm too."

Burn almost any kind of organic material — corn husks, hazelnut shells, bamboo and, yes, even chicken manure — in an oxygen-depleted process called pyrolysis, and you generate gases and heat that can be used as energy. What remains is a solid — biochar — that sequesters carbon, keeping CO2 out of the atmosphere. In principle, at least, you create energy in a way that is not just carbon neutral, but carbon negative.

And the benefits only begin there. When added to thin and acidic soil of the kind found in much of South America and Africa, char produces higher agricultural yields and lets farmers cut down on costly, petroleum-heavy fertilizers. Subsistence farmers seeking better soil have traditionally relied on slash-and-burn agriculture, which generates greenhouse gases and decimates forests. If instead those farmers slow-smoldered their agricultural waste to produce charcoal — in effect, slash-and-char agriculture — they could fertilize existing plots instead of clearing more land. This in turn would reduce emissions in the atmosphere, and so on in a virtuous circle of environmental renewal.

Could it really be that simple? It appears to have been for the original inhabitants of the Amazon basin. In the 16th century, Spanish explorer Francisco de Orellana wrote home describing the remarkably fertile lands he had discovered there. In the 19th century, American and Canadian geologists uncovered the reason: bands of terra preta (dark earth), which locals continued to cultivate successfully. Research revealed that the original inhabitants of the region had added charred wood and leaves — biochar — to their lands.

Centuries later, it was still there, enriching the soil. "You couldn't help but notice it. There would be all this poor, grayish soil, and then, right next to it, a tract of black that was several meters deep," says Johannes Lehmann, a soil scientist who worked in Manaus, Brazil, in the late 1990s. After he left the Amazon in 2000 for a job at Cornell University, N.Y., Lehmann started wondering what would happen if farmers today could make their own terra preta. He has found one answer in a field trial in Kenya, where 45 farmers achieved twice the yield in their corn crops with biochar than with conventional fertilizers.

Epidra, a private firm in Athens, Ga., is exploring larger-scale applications, such as pyrolysis systems that can produce both enough energy to power a tractor and a biochar tailored to improve particular soils. "If you're going to grow food, you have to do it responsibly," says Bob Hawkins, Eprida's project manager. "And one way of doing that is to use it to generate sustainable energy." A prototype can turn a ton of ground peanut shells into 600 lb. (270 kg) of biochar, with energy as the bonus.

Biochar's ability to sequester CO2 has given new urgency to such research. "Reducing emissions isn't enough — we have to draw down the carbon stock in the atmosphere," says Tim Flannery, chair of the Copenhagen Climate Council, a consortium of scientists and business leaders linked to next year's United Nations Climate Summit. "And for that, slow pyrolysis biochar is a superior solution to anything else that's been proposed." Cornell's Lehmann is even more emphatic. "If biochar could be massively applied around the globe," he says, "we could end the emissions problem in one to two years."

Not everyone agrees. "Biochar isn't a silver bullet, not by a long shot," says Dominic Woolf, a researcher at Swansea University in Wales. "You have to look at the big picture: pyrolysis itself produces carbon dioxide emissions, and you have to consider that when you try to determine biochar's capacity for sequestration." Lehmann says he welcomes the doubts, and notes that addressing them requires "investors willing to take the risk." Which is where chicken farmer Frye, with his small biochar operation, comes in as one of the few people out there actually making a business of it. With a pyrolysis unit that can create 3-4 tons of biochar a day, he generates enough energy to heat his hen houses; and he sells the char as fertilizer for $600 a ton. For Lehmann, biochar's benefits aren't so much a scientific novelty as a return to basics. "From cave drawings to iron smelting, charcoal has always played an important role in the development of civilization," he says. "Maybe it's about to do it again."

Too Old Tools

On of the great hidden assumptions in archeological research is the idea that new knowledge and skills are acquired slowly and that the transmission of these skills is a slow process. That is a bad idea that comes from having three pieces of evidence spaced hugely in time and then drawing a straight line through them as if it means anything.

In fact useful new ideas will be transmitted throughout a major continent and possibly even between continents in special cases in a time frame of perhaps a single millennia. It really is that quick and is no more than the fact that women are exchanged often and move the information and skills along.

This has been humanities secret weapon from the very beginning. What is discovered at one end of a continent is transmitted willing or otherwise a step at a time every few years even without trade or clan relationships.

Therefore this remarkable idea described in the attached article has to be demonstrated in many other places besides this. What they have is a date anomaly.
The good news is that the archeology crowd will certainly dig deeper and perhaps we will have no more ending a dig just because it reached a supposed final layer. And surely the actual identification of these stones as tools will be challenged.

A new study of sophisticated stone tools found in Ethiopia has led scientists to suggest that modern humans may have evolved more than 80,000 years earlier than previously thought.

Washington, Dec 4 : A new study of sophisticated stone tools found in Ethiopia has led scientists to suggest that modern humans may have evolved more than 80,000 years earlier than previously thought.
The tools were uncovered in the 1970s at the archaeological site of Gademotta, in the Ethiopian Rift Valley.

But, it was not until this year that new dating techniques revealed the tools to be far older than the oldest known Homo sapien bones, which are around 195,000 years old.

According to a report in National Geographic News, using argon-argon dating, a technique that compares different isotopes of the element argon, researchers determined that the volcanic ash layers entombing the tools at Gademotta date back at least 276,000 years.

Many of the tools found are small blades, made using a technique that is thought to require complex cognitive abilities and nimble fingers, according to study co-author and Berkeley Geochronology Center director Paul Renne.

Some archaeologists believe that these tools and similar ones found elsewhere are associated with the emergence of the modern human species, Homo sapien.

"It seems that we were technologically more advanced at an earlier time that we had previously thought," said study co-author Leah Morgan, from the University of California, Berkeley.

Gademotta was an attractive place for people to settle, due to its close proximity to fresh water in Lake Ziway and access to a source of hard, black volcanic glass, known as obsidian.

"Due to its lack of crystalline structure, obsidian glass is one of the best raw materials to use for making tools," Morgan explained.

In many parts of the world, archaeologists see a leap around 300,000 years ago in Stone Age technology from the large and crude hand-axes and picks of the so-called Acheulean period to the more delicate and diverse points and blades of the Middle Stone Age.

At other sites in Ethiopia, such as Herto in the Afar region northeast of Gademotta, the transition does not occur until much later, around 160,000 years ago, according to argon dating.

This variety in dates supports the idea of a gradual transition in technology.

"The new date for Gademotta changes how we think about human evolution, because it shows how much more complicated the situation is than we previously thought," said Laura Basell, an archaeologist at the University of Oxford in the U.K. It is not possible to simply associate specific species with particular technologies and plot them in a line from archaic to modern," she added.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Brave New World

As we all know, the global financial system received a massive shock that has seen global equity shrink by forty percent. This has obviously put even quality debt underwater in terms of liquidity. We are now in a protracted period of restatement of values that will permit lending to consolidate and begin initiating new business.. This must take time.

In the meantime there is a bulge of credit problems moving through the manufacturing and carrying trade that will express itself as a nasty quarterly loss. This will be followed by a strong rebound in the following quarters as trade returns to some semblance of normality. This has and is leading to a lot of short term layoffs that should last for a fairly short time. It is still no fun for those on the receiving end.

Will the core economy recover fully? Of course it will, since it is driven by real needs. I expect it to be very fast since the financial failures have visibly abated. Manufacturing through the auto industry is now working to do a defacto chapter 11. It will be interesting to watch Congress support an automotive recovery plan that must include kicking union ass to be credible. After all, they demanded a plan when their real political interests would have been better served with a blank check. They now get to wear the result.

We are entering one of the greatest economic changes of course in Global history. We will exit the oil economy and transition to the solar economy at a cost of under $1.00 per watt. Everything has come together to support this transition with technologies in place or on the drawing board to make it all happen.

The autocart is coming and right behind it the long range autocart. At the same time, the Eden machine that I described early this week will also arrive providing an economic model for a third of the world’s population who will go to work and reforest the dry lands and deserts creating successful sustainable agriculture.

A third of the globe’s population are now in the middle class, or at least see themselves as such. This will let the rest aboard over the next twenty years.

These two devices with solar energy will completely unleash the Global Economy from its commodity strait jackets. The rest is a modicum of education and a lot of good governance.
This attached article brings us up to date on the condition of the quietly worsening oil supply situation. We have had the wake up price shock. W will soon be talking about rationing just as soon as we lose a couple of millions of barrels production and the lack of elasticity in supply becomes apparent.


Peak Oil's "Black Swan" Event

By Chris Nelder Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

It seems like everyone but me has read Nassim Taleb's book, The Black Swan. The concept of unforeseen, highly unlikely events has wormed its way into nearly every conversation lately. (The title is a reference to the fact that all swans were assumed to be white until black swans were discovered in Australia.)

Aside from the fact that I have a too-long reading list, perhaps I haven't read it because it's something about which I've already thought altogether too much. I seem to be one of those people who are predisposed to look for the outlier events, the exceptions to the rules.

Peak oil is a classic case of a black swan event. Nowhere in our history of modern economic theory or industrial civilization is there such an event, so the past will be no help to us as a guide to the future. Still, we act as though our theories are gospel, and our markets are wise. New and unforeseen events like peak oil are never priced in.


Only the few people with a predilection to look out for such things will see it, at first, while the madd'ing crowd dismisses peak oil as a hoax, and disregards the mountains of science and data with blithe assertions about their faith in the markets and technology. They'd rather believe wacky tall tales from an itinerant preacher who spent a little time in Alaska's oil fields but apparently never learned a thing about oil production than look at the hard data on oil production we do have. And they will continue to do so until precisely the moment at which the whole crowd has seen the proof and knows that it's true; that is, when the peak is well in the rear-view mirror and nobody has any doubt that the End of the Oil Age is upon us, and it's far too late to take effective action.

Only when oil prices blew past $120 this year did analysts like me get a little air time to talk about the science on peak oil and not be simply dismissed as "
peak freaks" with some sort of presumed pathological desire to destroy the economy. And now, with oil prices dragging well below the trendline, our looming supply problem is no longer in focus at all, even as it quietly becomes more urgent. Nothing to see here, people, move along....

Unfortunately, as I discussed in my article last week, when the prices of oil and natural gas are as low as they are now, it no longer pays some companies to continue to produce it. The ones operating at the margin of profitability—the ones working the most difficult and marginal resources, with the highest cost structures—are simply getting priced out, laying down their rigs and cutting back on their expansion plans.

The contraction of new oil and gas development due to low commodity prices and difficulty in obtaining credit is setting us up for an "air pocket" in energy supply. When we hit that air pocket, somewhere around 2010, it will create an especially fearsome spike in oil prices.

A Massive Reality Disconnect

You wouldn't know that from watching the tape, though. Oil and gas, which are part of the very foundation of the real, physical economy, continue to get hammered by traders as if they were no different from any other wacky financial instruments we have invented. As oil finally dropped below $50 and stayed there, the whispers about $20 started going around. Vague fears of a reduced outlook for global oil demand, still not verified by the data, have caused oil prices to overshoot far to the downside.

It's as if traders either don't know, or simply don't care, that oil is already below the production cost in those marginal areas where essentially all of the growth in world oil production must come from (if any). If the chart says it could go back to $20, then they believe it could go back to $20.

Such thinking, confined by conventional wisdom and removed as it is from any sort of real world knowledge of petroleum geology, is not only wrong, it will also prove very costly to those to follow it.

On the other hand, one can go broke trying to tell the market what to think. If the market believes that oil's going to $20, then for a short time at least, it probably will. It doesn't pay to buck the trend.

What does pay is knowing when the turning point is about to happen, before the herd heads in a new direction.

We had one of those turning points at the beginning of 2005, when the decades-long growth trend in conventional crude oil production was finally broken. In 2005, oil hit the bumpy plateau at the top of its bell curve, where it has remained in the range of 74 mbpd. (Natural gas liquids, biofuels, unconventional oil, and other components make up the remainder that bring world "oil" production up to about 86 mbpd.) That's when oil prices sharply departed from their past trends, and shot from about $40/bbl to $147/bbl.

Now we have a situation where oil is trading for under $50/bbl, but we know that the global marginal barrel production cost is about $65, that OPEC is signaling it wants to defend $70-75/bbl, and credible forecasts suggest that $100/bbl is the minimum needed to ensure future supply.

That means we have reached yet another massive disconnect between the trade and the reality. Before long, the pendulum will have to swing back the other way, and will probably overshoot to the high side.

Put another way, the markets are currently pricing the tail risk of peak oil by 2010 at approximately zero. The lack of adequate substitutes is also priced at zero. If somebody wants to help me make a CDS-like instrument, we can price that risk correctly and make a killing. But short of that, a long position in oil doesn't get much more attractively priced than it is right now.

A World Too Complicated
In a
recent interview with PBS, Taleb noted that it only took a tiny bit more demand than there was supply to send prices skyrocketing this year for oil and agricultural commodities. Oil is priced at the margin of supply; the last, most expensive barrel essentially sets the price of the whole lot. That's what we should have been focused on, rather than engaging in a witch hunt for evil speculators.

Few seem to understand the deeply interwoven relationships between oil prices, oil supply, the value of the US dollar, and the health of the banking system and the broader markets. Taleb put it simply: "We live in a world that is way too complicated for our traditional economic structure. It's not as resilient as it used to be; we don't have slack; it's over-optimized."

It's is a point I have repeated often. With just-in-time inventory practices dominating every supply chain and every industry, an interruption in the flow of oil can have drastic consequences within mere days. Events like hurricane Katrina foreshadow what can happen: Power plants shut down, trucks stop rolling, shelves and tanks go empty. Much of our infrastructure is extremely vulnerable to energy interruptions, but that isn't priced in either.

What we build—or don't build—in energy has indirect but enormously important impacts on the financial markets. Without energy, we can't have economic growth. The feedback loop also runs the other direction: without a robust economy, we can't invest in the future of energy.

Monetary policy also has a huge but delayed effect on energy prices, and in time, energy prices feed back into monetary policy. It seems inevitable that the massive creation of money in response to the current credit crisis will eventually result in oil prices spiking again.

Only the next time that happens, totally contrary to conventional market wisdom and the very history of oil production, oil producers will not be able to increase production even with prices again at all-time highs. Simple depletion of mature fields, declining resource quality and quantity, an uncertain financial outlook, skyrocketing project costs, geopolitical tensions and the host of other factors I have documented in these pages will bring us to the peak of oil production sooner than our models projected.

Black swan events are far more common that we might think. The rapid unwinding of the enormous leverage in the financial markets this year was another black swan. The models never priced in everybody being on the same side of the trade in credit default swaps and CDOs, and they never imagined the sudden crash of the markets or the swath of destruction it would carve. History was no help in guiding us through the current crisis.

We also suffer from simple myopia. By focusing on the financial markets without seeing their connection to everything else, we have truly missed the point, which is that energy is the real economy, and money is merely an artificial representation of it. Consequently, twiddling with interest rates, and other measures that don't produce more energy or decrease demand for it, ultimately don't cure our problems at all.

Somehow, we have to start making our decisions on energy policy and the economy on a much longer time horizon, and with a much broader view of how all the parts fit together. It takes decades to make any significant changes in energy infrastructure, like replacing a significant portion of the vehicle fleet, or building electrified rail, or a long-distance transmission grid, or renewable energy systems.

Instead of focusing all our attention on how we might try to play the oil game into overtime, we need to start thinking about how we're going to cope with living on less than half our current energy budget by 2050.

If you only watch the rear-view mirror when driving, you're going to wreck. Yet that is exactly what we're doing with our energy supply planning, and exactly what the Street is doing with pricing future energy supply. It's time to put both eyes squarely on the road ahead, and watch out for that hairpin curve in 2010.
Until next time,

UN Conference Chills Out

It is enough to say that the much ballyhooed international conference that is now taking place in Poland was greeted by a UN generated report essentially saying what has been unavoidable for eighteen months. That the world has decided to cool off by 0.7 degrees without any fanfare or the slightest bit of notice.

Even the UN is learning that the climate will persistently warm up over years and decades and then abruptly cool. It actually explains and illuminates a lot about past historical climate shifts and even may partly explain the mythology of the Boreal Wind.

That may well be a folk memory of strong unusual Arctic summer winds been followed by bitterly cold winters.

There is nothing like living through a transition time to get a handle on the mechanisms at work.

I am looking forward to the communiqués that will come out of this conference. I wonder if they can grab the nettle or are we to be treated like idiots.

The moment the temperature dropped in the winter of 2008 after the spectacularly warm summer of 2007, the current cycle of warming was patently over. The big question now is whether a fresh warming cycle will begin, or if the decline will continue for some time.

Remember that the Romans faced a frozen Rhine and tens of thousands of so called Germanic barbarians on the other side with slim warning from the preceding years if any. A one degree drop in the next year or so would likely give us analogous conditions.


World Climate Report

The Web’s Longest-Running Climate Change Blog
December 2, 2008

10,000 people from 86 countries have descended upon Poznan, Poland for yet-another United Nations meeting on climate change. This time, it’s the annual confab of the nations that signed the original U.N. climate treaty in Rio in 1992. That instrument gave rise to the infamous 1996 Kyoto Protocol on global warming, easily the greatest failure in the history of environmental diplomacy.

Kyoto was supposed to reduce global emissions of carbon dioxide below 1990 levels during the period 2008-2012. But since it was signed, the atmospheric concentration of this putative pollutant continued to rise, pretty much at the same rate it did before Kyoto. (Even if the world had lived up to the letter of the Kyoto law, it would have exerted an influence on global temperature that would have been too small to measure.)

The purpose of the Poznan meeting is to work out some type of framework that goes “Beyond Kyoto.” After completely failing in its first attempt to internationally limit carbon dioxide emissions, the U.N. will propose reductions far greater than those called for by Kyoto. Kyoto failed because it was too expensive, so anything “beyond” will cost much more.

The fact is that the world cannot afford any expensive climate policies now. Economic conditions are so bad that carbon dioxide emissions—the byproduct of our commerce—are likely going down because of the financial cold spell, not the climatic one. Indeed, a permanent economic ice-age would likely result from any mandated large cuts in emissions. If you’re liking your 401(k) today, you’ll love “Beyond Kyoto.”

Before proposing an even harsher treaty the U.N. ought to pay attention to its own climate science. It regularly publishes temperature histories from its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was formed in the late 1980s with the express charge of finding a scientific basis for a global climate treaty.

Since Kyoto, a very funny thing has happened to global temperatures: IPCC data clearly show that warming has stopped—even though its computer models said such a thing could not happen.

According to the IPCC, the world reached its high-temperature mark in 1998, thanks to a big “El Niño,” which is a temporary warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that occurs once or twice a decade. El Niño years are usually followed by one or two relatively cold years, as occurred in 1999 and 2000. The cooling is, not surprisingly, called La Niña. No one knows what really causes these cycles but they have been going on sporadically for millennia.

Wait a minute. Starting an argument about global warming in 1998 is a bit unfair. After all, that’s starting off with a very hot temperature, followed by two relatively cool years.

Fine. Take those years out of the record and there’s still no statistically significant warming since 1997. When a scientist tells you that some trend is not “significant,” he or she is saying that it cannot mathematically be distinguished from no trend whatsoever.

More important, as shown in our Figure 1, there’s not going to be any significant trend for some time.

Assume, magically, that temperatures begin to warm in 2009 at the rate they were warming before the mid-90s, and that they continue to warm at that rate.

We show two alternatives. One includes the El Niño/La Niña cycle of 1998-2000. Assuming that the old rate of warming reappears in 2009 and continues, the warming since 1998 does not become statistically significant until 2021.

Our other alternative simply removes the El Niño/La Niña cycle and starts in 1997. Under that assumption, warming doesn’t become significant until 2020.
Whatever the assumption, even if the earth resumes warming at the pre-1998 rate, we will have nearly a quarter-century without a significant warming trend.

Figure 1. Top: Observed temperature, 1998-2008 (blue circles), plus a constant rate of warming beginning in 2009 at the rate established from 1977 through 1997 (0.17°C/decade) (red circles). Warming since 1998 does not become statistically significant until 2021.

Bottom: Same as above, but the observed temperatures beginning in 1997 through 2008 (filled blue circles), and ignoring the El Niño/La Niña swing in 1998-2000 (open blue circles). The constant rate of warming is assumed to begin in 2009 (filled red circles). In this case, warming does not become significant until 2020.

Perhaps the delegates at Poznan ought to look at the IPCC’s latest (2007) compendium on climate. It used 21 different climate models to forecast the future, and subjected each to different “storylines” (in the U.N.’s parlance) for global emissions of carbon dioxide. They are there for the world to see, on page 763 of the volume on climate science (reproduced as our Figure 2). Not one of them predicts a quarter-century without warming—even under a scenario in which emissions increase faster than they already are.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/poznan_fig2.JPG

Figure 2. Temperature projections from 2000 to 2100 from the suite of climate models used by the IPCC for three different “storylines”—SRES A2 (top); SRES A1B (middle); SRES B1 (bottom) (source: IPCC AR4, page 763).

The bottom line is that the U.N.’s own climate models have failed, barely a year after they were made public. They have demonstrated a remarkable inability to even “predict” the present! Can 10,000 people in Poznan somehow ignore this?

They shouldn’t. Instead they should be thankful. The lack of recent and future warming almost certainly means that the ultimate warming of this century is going to be quite modest. Instead, they should keep in mind that expensive policies to fight a modest climate change will only worsen the unprecedented cold snap affecting the global economy.

Hurricanes and Arctic Phytoplankton

The media tends to lose sight of hurricanes unless they are threatening a densely populated area. This item is a reminder that the coast is exposed each and every year to a predictable number of hurricanes. This is why insurance companies price coverage accordingly. It is only a matter of time.

What I find obscene is that municipalities ever allow building permits in clearly exposed areas. The most minimal urban planning can freeze out vulnerable districts whose foolish development will inevitably bankrupt the town when a storm blows through.

This year we were treated to Galveston once again been destroyed totally at a significant loss of life. It did happen once before and it will happen again.

The city needs to demand full insurance cover and a life cover before anyone is allowed to ever build there again. Does anyone think that this will happen?

Galveston and Katrina were the two most completely predictable events that ever happened and they were.

My next favorite is Miami. It is one giant bulls eye that has no protection from a six to sixteen foot storm surge. You also have difficulty running away from the coast.

All these areas need to have barrier reefs built and grown a mile or so offshore that can frustrate a storm surge and limit damage to wind alone.

"Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records"

November 26, 2008

(Source: NHC)

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially came to a close on Sunday (Nov 30th), marking the end of a season that produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began.

A total of 16 named storms formed this season, based on an operational estimate by NOAA's National Hurricane Center. The storms included eight hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher. These numbers fall within the ranges predicted in NOAA's pre- and mid-season outlooks issued in May and August.

_________________________________________

This short note is a review of how the unusual conditions of 2007 impacted the phytoplankton populations. At least someone was trying to measure the results. Of course we are now likely looking at a steady decline in the amount of open water as normal Arctic conditions fully reassert themselves.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline Shakes Up Ocean Ecosystems

Saturday, November 8, 2008

http://www.sflorg.com/earthnews/en110808_01.html


Uncertain as to how phytoplankton -- microscopic marine plants on which much of ocean life depends -- would respond to Arctic sea ice decline, researchers took advantage of NASA satellite images to show that the microscopic floating plants are teeming in regions of recent ice melt.

The explosion in phytoplankton populations is the result of new open-water habitat and, more significantly, an extended ice-free growing season, biological oceanographer Kevin Arrigo and colleagues from Stanford University in Stanford, Calif., reported last month in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters.

Since phytoplankton cycle carbon dioxide into organic compounds and also form the base of the marine food web, the researchers believe the booming populations could have complex ecological consequences.
"Arrigo and colleagues have brought together the effects of air-sea interaction, warming water, and decreasing sea ice extent," said Paula Bontempi, a program scientist at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "You start to look at all of these interlocking pieces and think: there has got to be an impact on phytoplankton and the ecology of the system."

Phytoplankton, like any plant, require nutrients to survive. However, Arctic Ocean surface waters usually have a limited supply of nutrients, which has led some researchers to assume that new areas of open water would not necessarily promote additional phytoplankton growth.

To find out how phytoplankton respond to diminished sea ice cover, the team calculated changes in the sea ice extent and phytoplankton growth from ten years of chlorophyll measurements -- which are used to estimate phytoplankton abundance -- collected by the Sea-viewing Wide Field of View Sensor (SeaWiFS) instrument on the GeoEye satellite. The team also collected measurements of sea surface temperature and ice extent from other satellite instruments such as NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites.

The researchers were most interested by what happened between 2006 and 2007, when the summertime minimum sea ice extent made its sharpest annual reduction since satellite measurements began in 1979.

By comparing maps of new ice free areas in 2007 with maps of increasing phytoplankton abundance since 2006, the team could deduce how much of that phytoplankton growth was due to newly ice free regions. In a similar way, the team could compare the maps of ice-free regions with maps that show the magnitude of an extended melt season, to deduce how much phytoplankton growth resulted from the longer season.

The team found that 30 percent of the increase in phytoplankton between 2006 and 2007 was due to large new areas of open water exposed by the extensive melting of sea ice. The other 70 percent of the increase could be attributed to a longer growing season, which in some Arctic regions was extended in 2007 by as much as 100 days, compared to 2006.

"We expected a big phytoplankton increase in the areas that were historically covered by sea ice because the plants now have sunlight." Arrigo said. "But the longer growing season is ultimately what allowed most phytoplankton to grow and increase productivity."

Phytoplankton and all plants naturally remove carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere. Newly open water in the Arctic could therefore act as a new "sink" for carbon dioxide if marine plants and their carbon sink out of the surface waters to the deep ocean. Still, the magnitude of such a carbon sink remains to be seen because further growth could eventually be limited by the supply of surface nutrients. Scientists also wonder if the uptake of carbon into the Arctic Ocean will be temporary or long lasting.

Whales, seals, marine birds, zooplankton, and other marine animals all depend either directly or indirectly on phytoplankton for food. Researchers are uncertain what effect a boost in plant growth will have on the ecosystem, particularly migratory species that depend on the timing of sea ice melt and food availability.
"The Arctic is undergoing so many changes already," Arrigo said. "Nobody knows how this will play out."
Source: NASA / Goddard / Kathryn Hansen

Thursday, December 4, 2008

EEStor Ultra Capacitors

The buzz on this particular battery technology is high and is been led by the Zenn electric car promoters who are also providing cash. The details are in the Wikipedia article.

That they are finding slippage on goal posts is hardly a surprise. That anyone makes an issue of it is tiresome. And the creation of proprietary knowledge does tend to drive an over compensation on secrecy.

I seriously wish these folks would pack it in until they are invited to do a walk through in a defense factory and experience real security.

What matters is that these folks have caused something to happen at the lab level and they are now working on perfecting a manufacturing process.

The ultra capacitor battery is important and the apparent energy density is very competitive. It certainly explains Zenn’s involvement who know that it is no big trick to generate a light electric car or as I prefer to call them ‘autocarts’

Even today, the autocart has a very clear niche that we may be forced to mandate and establish in a hurry. It is going to be easier to produce fresh grid power quickly than produce new oil production in a hurry. And an ultra capacitor is a good start for automotive storage. It is naturally mobile although I cannot comment yet on weight. What is described is certainly superior to any known technology that I have seen.

One can appreciate Nanosolar’s silence until they had their tool up and running when you see the flak these guys are flying through.

The point is that they have made a big claim, have filed patents and attempting to convert their know how into a working production line. They can fail technically or for lack of money. They are progressing at what looks like a normal pace.

And recall that funding sources always ask for time lines that are unrealistic however well staffed you are as you leave the gate. In the end they accept visible progress.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EEStor

EEStor's Weir on ultracapacitor milestone

The stealthy energy storage developer's product is real and will meet specs, claimed passionate CEO Richard Weir in an exclusive interview.

Cedar Park, Texas-based ultracapacitor developer
EEStor could be a step closer to shipping its first product, announcing the certification of production milestones and the enhancement of its chemical purification processes.

The secretive startup has made bold claims for the performance of its upcoming solid-state electrical energy storage unit, yet the company has some significant partners backing its claims, including Toronto-based electric vehicle maker
Zenn Motor (TSX: ZNN), Silicon Valley's Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and Bethesda, Md.-based Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), the world's No. 1 defense contractor.

Richard Weir, president and CEO of EEStor, told the Cleantech Group his company's certification announcement is significant.

"It certainly allows us to meet present specifications and major advances in energy storage in the future," he said. "It'll meet the voltage, we say that, it'll meet the polarization, saturation, we say that."
EEStor is developing an ultracapacitor which it said will be longer lasting, lighter, more powerful, and more environmentally friendly than current battery technologies.

Texas Research International, acting as an independent laboratory, certified the level of crystallization in EEStor's composition modified barium titanate, or CMBT, powders at an average of 99.92 percent. EEStor said this puts it on the path toward meeting its goals for energy storage.

The company expects its ceramic ultracapacitor, which it said uses no hazardous materials, to have a charging time of 3 to 6 minutes, with a discharge rate of only 0.02 percent over 30 days. EEStor said that compares to more than 3 hours to charge a lithium-ion battery and a discharge rate of 1 percent over 30 days.

"It's all certified," said Weir. "No bullshit in this."

EEStor's milestone comes on the same day that San Diego-based competitor
Maxwell Technologies (Nasdaq: MXWL) announced a supply deal (see Golden Dragon Bus to use Maxwell ultracapacitors).

Maxwell shipped its Boostcap ultracapacitors to Xiamen, China's Golden Dragon Bus for use in diesel-electric hybrid buses in Hangzhou.

EEStor said the enhancement of its chemical purification processes is one of its most critical technical milestones, but EEStor has yet to release the results of permittivity testing, which will trigger the next milestone payment from Zenn. The automaker said permittivity is a measurement of how much energy can be stored in a material.

In a statement today, Zenn CEO Ian Clifford said the news "bodes well for EEStor's completion of its third party verified permittivity milestone and is a very strong affirmation of our investment in and the rapid progress of our business plan."

Zenn currently makes low-speed electric vehicles, shipping its first production vehicles in October 2006, but plans to roll out a highway-speed vehicle powered by EEStor's technology in the fall of 2009 (see
Zenn gearing up for EEStor-powered car).

Zenn has already made three milestone payments to EEStor totaling $1.3 million. Another $700,000 is payable after the permittivity testing, with a final $500,000 due when EEStor ships its ultracapacitors.

Separately, Zenn also holds 3.8 percent of EEStor after investing $2.5 million in the ultracapacitor company in April 2007. After EEStor's permittivity milestone, Zenn has the option to boost its investment to a range of 6.2 to 10.5 percent.

In 2005, Kleiner Perkins invested a reported $3 million in EEStor. The percentage of Kleiner's stake has not been revealed.

"We were invested in to put in a high-volume production line. I think this says we've made some very major strides to completing that," said Weir.

"The plant is going in right now in Cedar Park as we speak. And then we'll, of course, we'll always expand from there."

Lockheed Martin announced its contract with EEStor in January, saying that it plans use the ultracapacitors for military and homeland security applications (see
Lockheed Martin to use EEStor's ultracapacitors). The defense contractor did not release the financial terms of the deal.

Weir wouldn't disclose if EEStor is working with any other companies, saying only, "Once contracts are signed, I'm sure we'll have a news release on them."

EEStor's ultracapacitors were previously set to come out in 2007, but Zenn has since said that EEStor has committed to commercialization in 2008, with EEStor's first production line to be used to supply Zenn.

When asked for an update on that schedule, Weir said, "Good things should happen in a reasonable period of time."

First Solar

This is a report out by first solar and what is interesting is that while using a glass substrate, they have still been able to drive the cost per watt down to an impressive $1.08 per watt. They also understand what the objective is.

In the meantime the CIGS technology is allowing the actual printing of solar cells and surely promises to bring this cost point much lower. I am expecting pennies per watt before this is much further down the road.

The real tough act to follow will be Nanosolar’s. A two million dollar tool that cranks out the capacity of a nuclear power plant each and every year at an opening selling price of $1.00 per watt leaves nothing to the imagination. The treat to First Solar is so real and immediate that this report serves only as an attempt to placate the backers who surely are getting nervous reading Nanosolar’s pronouncements.

The CIGS print protocol has been rushed to market upon it been just good enough and certainly cheap enough. On going refinement will surely double efficiency at the least and likely halve the selling price. This will even be fairly quick, well inside the design lifetime of the solar cells.

That means that if you build an application, you can expect and plan to change out your cells in perhaps three years for twice the power while saving some money.




First Solar Creates Tough Act to Follow

Solar startups will have trouble replicating the thin-film solar panel market leader's performance in today's poor economy, industry watchers at a Photon International conference warn.

by:
Jeff St. John
December 2, 2008

Companies seeking to take
First Solar's place at the top of the thin-film solar panel market won't have an easy time of it – even if investors are hungry to find such a contender.

"Searching for the ‘Second Solar'," – the title that Photon International gave to the opening day of its three-day solar industry conference in San Francisco – made that point neatly enough.

After all, you can't have a "second solar" without a First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR) to compete against. The Phoenix, Ariz.-based maker of cadmium-telluride panels has driven its production costs to as low as $1.08 per watt in the third quarter of 2008, down from $1.18 in the previous quarter and $1.23 in 2007 (see
First Solar Profits Up 54%, Credit Crunch Could Impact Biz).

Getting to those low costs has been the result of more than 20 years of "hard work," as well as the alignment of First Solar's expansion at a time when solar power was receiving significant support from both governments and investors, Bruce Sohn, First Solar's president, told the conference audience Tuesday.

While many other solar panel startups are now aiming at costs of $1 per watt, "It's clearly not obvious who's going to do that, and how it's going to happen," Sohn said.

Thin-film companies including
Solyndra, Nanosolar, Miasolé and HelioVolt, which make copper-indium-gallium-diselenide films, also known as CIGS, have raised a lot of money as they've set their sights on competing with First Solar (see Competition for First Solar?). So have giants like Honda and Shell.

Potentially, CIGS panels can harvest more electricity from the sun than cad tel panels. Experimental CIGS panels at NREL hit 19.9 percent efficiency while the best cal tel cells peak at around 16.5 percent efficiency.

Many also say that putting CIGS thin-film solar cells on thin substrates, like metal foils, is easier. First Solar puts its solar cells on glass, expensive to buy and heavy to ship, although it is trying to develop thin substrates.

And there are now new cad tel solar cells coming to market, such as AVA Solar, which just raised over $100 million in VC funds.

But given today's poor economic climate – and the growing maturity of First Solar's relentlessly efficient manufacturing, represented by the company's $6.3 billion current backlog of sales – startups will have a hard time trying to match First Solar's recipe in the short term, said Jeffrey Grabow, with Ernst & Young's high technology practice in San Jose.

After years of growing venture capital investment in solar companies, 2008 will probably see investments fall, Grabow said. In the short term, it's likely venture capitalists will focus on getting later-stage companies to profit-making production, rather than funding earlier-stage companies seeking to prove new technologies, he said.

"Since the end of September, times have changed," he said. "Venture capitalists are spending a lot of time rationalizing their own portfolios," seeking to separate those companies with short-term paths to profitability from those that won't survive, he said.

"Cleantech and solar have been bright spots, and I think they'll continue to get the lion's share of dollars in the near term," he said. "But I think a lot of that will be going to later-stage deals, because that's where they have to go."

The larger outfits like Honda won't have to worry about VC funding, but even these companies are having a rough ride. Shares of solar companies have fallen harder and faster than the Dow Industrial Average in the past two months, he said, and "This is going to affect anyone in the solar industry who's looking for capital or financing," Grabow said. (See
Stocks Stumble After SunPower Lowers Forecast.)

Michael Ware, a managing director at Good Energies, a venture capital firm focused on greentech investments, said solar startups shouldn't "oversell themselves" when considering how to bring new technologies to market. Nor should they expect to go public with the expectation that they will match First Solar's market performance (see
First Solar Shares Jump 24.5%).

"There's a long road to go from a startup to where First Solar is," he said. "To calculate your valuation based on where First Solar is, we think is a mistake."

While Good Energies will continue to look for investments in solar companies, "The new investments we're going to make are going to be very selective," he said.

Still, Grabow said, companies that do have technologies – and plans to bring them to commercialization
– that could match First Solar should relentlessly network to get the attention of venture capitalists.

After all, "They're afraid they missed First Solar, and they're afraid they're going to miss ‘second solar," he said.

In Ireland where the Buffalo Roam

This story is a bit of fun as it appears that the first buffalo herd, or so they say, lands in Ireland. The story even managed to mention the buffalo commons. It is at least a start and it looks like a good start..

There are vast regions of the Eurasian plains and woodlands that are very suitable for buffalo culture. This will firstly replace the original buffalo herds hunted to extinction by our ancestors and make for superior land usage.
Yet this is how it must begin. A few small herds here and there will get it all started. And no, we do not need to introduce wolves and bears into this mix. We do a much better job.

One only wishes one could be there a thousand years from now to see how it all works out.

http://montanagael.blogspot.com/2008/11/green-fields-of-gaothdobhair.html

Saturday, November 29, 2008

The Green Fields of Gaothdobhair
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqVYOoFZbRIPihiNYDBEIlfeOcKiVYmFIujPG24SgNdxFZZYtIPdqzQiVx6tvHZ7gLowIMSaiU4MBE3AuyvevlmKmxDCW-zg1aG_buOyB1m8iaFHA8M9lb9Ocwea7x2LApLVStyzdmaKM2/s1600-h/Img_20070910043347_2691-4948.jpg


It turns out Donegal is the new Buffalo Commons.

Patrick Doherty, a hotelier from Gweedore (birthplace of the neo-Celtic songstress Enya, doncha know) has imported a herd of bison to graze in his green fields. They're doing very well, thank you. The herd's grown on the grass of Ireland, and has seen two calves healthy this year. The whole concept is a bit of a stretch, but it's good with the tourists. Doherty owns the An Chúirt Hotel, and his guests don't mind a view of the great beasts. Sure now, our Montana Ted has convinced the world that buffalo's good to eat. And, after all, wild Donegal is the last Irish frontier.

Next they'll reintroduce the wolves.

There's a lovely old song about Gweedore, and in the interests of hearing it more often I post the lyrics here. It dates from the seventeenth century, but there's obviously been at least one verse added in the last two hundred years:



THE GREEN FIELDS OF GAOTHDOBHAIR


Down past Dunlewy's bonny lakes
one morning I did stray
until I reached sweet Clady banks
where the silv'ry salmon play
I strolled around though old Bunbeg
and down along the shore
and gazed with admiration on the
green fields of Gaothdobhair.

I visit Magheraclocher,
on Middletown Heights I stand.
Beneath me lies the ocean wide
and Magheragallon strand;
those sandy banks so dear to me,
those banks I do adore.
Behind me lies sweet Derrybeg
and the green fields of Gaothdobhair.

The bonny Isle of Gola
and Inish Meán so near--
I see the little fishing fleet
as it lies along the pier;
I wander through the graveyard
where those have gone before
that once lived happy and content
by the green fields of Gaothdobhair.

I see sweet Inish Oirthir
and far off Tory Isle.
I view the ocean liners
as they steam along in style.
On board are Irish emigrants
with hearts both sad and sore
as they gaze on old Tir Chonaill Hills
and the green fields of Gaothdobhair.



My most favored version is that of Clara Sanabras and William Carter on The New Irish Girl CD.

Here's the Clannad version--they're Enya's relatives, so it's their hometown, too. Like Montana, their landscape is breezy and lovely; note the wind generators in the background.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t78NLFwM8YM&eurl=http://montanagael.blogspot.com/2008/11/green-fields-of-gaothdobhair.html

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Solar Thermal Power

This is a good survey article on solar energy with lot of handy links.

Direct solar conversion to electricity has been getting all the recent attention, but it must be said that converging solar energy into usable heat is also a good working strategy that is very easy to integrate into the power grid. Some of the systems are now very attractive.

Converting solar energy into a hot working fluid is then easily converted into grid power with conventional power equipment. I assume that the working fluid is water and that during the daytime operations can produce a large inventory of high grade steam that can be stored into the night. An additional energy source during the night is to take the spent steam and use it to drive a reverse Rankin cycle generator that drops the spent water from boiling temperature to the ambient nighttime temperature and produces seventy five percent brake horsepower.

Cheap solar cells are very good for static applications not needing high voltages. That means that it works well for buildings and the Eden machines. Not so well if you need a source of high power and you do not want to tie up a farm next door.

Giant solar collector fields can be built out in the desert and the energy easily converted into high voltage grid power for industrial use. The possibility of using spent water at night to provide a base load during the off peak period is actually attractive.

Posted in earth 4 energy by: stevaxx
November 30th, 2008

According to this link Europe uses 4,000 terawatts of energy but in the normally unusable deserts of North Africa and the Middle East 630,000 terawatts fall unused. If solar thermal plants covered the desert about the size of Austria it could power the whole entire world. The technology is cheap and includes an ability to store the energy for nighttime needs. If all this is possible why on Earth are we not employing this clean, cheap, abundent source of energy?

Solar thermal could do just that at affordable costs. Solar thermal can now produce electricity at as low as 8 cents a watt, and that would be improved by the economy of scale of mass production of the solar plant components.

1% of the Sahara desert could power the whole world.

1% of the deserts in the American southwest could power the whole country.

And solar photovoltaic efficiencey is not stuck at 10% as someone answered. It is closer to 20%.

And that efficiency is rapidly improving and the cost of making solar panels is falling just as rapidly.
Solar panel industry experts say they are just a few years away from being at grid parity with coal and gas power plants.

In fact, Nanosolar is already there, being able to produce solar panel complete systems for less money than it takes to build a coal power plant.

And then there is the cost of the coal and the pollution from it.

"Nanosolar’s founder and chief executive, Martin Roscheisen, claims to be the first solar panel manufacturer to be able to profitably sell solar panels for less than $1 a watt. That is the price at which solar energy becomes less expensive than coal.With a $1-per-watt panel,” he said, “it is possible to build $2-per-watt systems.

According to the Energy Department, building a new coal plant costs about $2.1 a watt, plus the cost of fuel and emissions, he said."

Concentrating solar photovoltaic power plants and solar thermal power plants in the southwest should be a large part of our future energy system.

Scientific American A Solar Grand Plan

Shows how we could have 69% solar power in the U.S, by 2050, spending less in taxpayer dollars than we spent building the internet and high speed information highway, and in about the same 35 year time frame.

And by spending about 1/8 as much annually over those years as we now give oil companies in subsidies.

Some solar thermal companies.

"I'd put my money on the sun & solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that." Thomas Edison, 1931

Solar thermal plants can store heat, which will generate steam driven electricity at night.

"Solar thermal power plants such as Ausra's generate electricity by driving steam turbines with sunshine. Ausra's solar concentrators boil water with focused sunlight, and produce electricity at prices directly competitive with gas- and coal-fired electric power."

"All of America's needs for electric power – the entire US grid, night and day – can be generated with Ausra's current technology using a square parcel of land 92 miles on a side. For comparison, this is less than 1% of America's deserts, less land than currently in use in the U.S. for coal mines."

Some of the arguments against wind and solar just don't make sense, like the argument that they are too intermittent, or not constant.

"There are areas in Denmark and Germany who use more than 40 percent of their electricity from wind. From what I have read, they are less concerned about the intermittency than we are in the United States even though we aren't at 1 pecent yet. Why? Because we are told by the fossil fuel guys, hey, can't use wind, can't use solar, what about the intermittency. If wind gets up to 40 percent of the electricity we use and solar gets up to 40 of the electricity we use, the other percents of electricity we need can be made up from the fossil fuel plants that are still there. If they are run less at full power, they can last a long time. That can be your electricity `battery.'"

"Using mirrors to focus the sun's heat on one of any various heat-to-electricity converters seems to have separated itself out as being the cheapest form of solar power."

"Solar energy is the great leveler (unlike oil, which has been the great divider) between the haves and the have nots). No one owns the sun. It can't be drilled or mined or tied up in financial derivatives."

(See Here Comes the Sun, February 17, 2007, Commentary, Chipstocktrader.com)

Green Wombat has several articles about solar thermal plants in California and Arizona. California has 9 small pilot plants that were built in the 80s and 90s. They produce 355 megawatts. Two larger plants have been approved for the Mojave Desert at 355 and 500 megawatts. Another is to be built near San Luis Obispo at 175 megawatts. Two or three others are in proposal stage, at up to 800 and 900 megawatts, for two of them.

from the Scientific American article:

"The greatest obstacle to implementing a renewable U.S. energy system is not technology or money, however. It is the lack of public awareness that solar power is a practical alternative—and one that can fuel transportation as well. Forward-looking thinkers should try to inspire U.S. citizens, and their political and scientific leaders, about solar power’s incredible potential. Once Americans realize that potential, we believe the desire for energy self-sufficiency and the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will prompt them to adopt a national solar plan"

"The huge reduction in imported oil would lower trade balance payments by $300 billion a year, assuming a crude oil price of $60 a barrel (average prices were higher in 2007). "

Together with Wind and other renewable, we can go to clean energy, while ultimately improving our economy as well.

A Blueprint For U.S. Energy Security

From the SetAmerican free document above.

The total of all oil-related external or “hidden” costs of $825 billion per year. Thistotal is nearly twice the figure authorized for the Department of Defense in 2006.To put the figure in further perspective, it is equivalent to adding $8.35 to the priceof a gallon of gasoline refined from Persian Gulf oil. This would raise that figure to$10.73, making the cost of filling the gasoline tank of a sedan $214.60, and of anSUV $321.90.

And then there's the $300 billion oil adds to our trade imbalance annually.

You think that makes for a good economy?

There is an unbelievable amount of disinformation about the potential of renewable energy.

Alan Balliett terra preta Q&A

I pulled this Q&A on Terra Preta out of a good article by Alan Balliett from last year. It can be located at:

http://www.acresusa.com/toolbox/reprints/Feb07_TerraPreta.pdf

It is a good article for those unfamiliar with Terra Preta.

This gives us a better sense of the why the knowledge was lost on contact so easily. Of course, population loss and endemic warfare would have sped it on its way.

What is not alluded to is the truly massive extent of the culture throughout the Amazon. There is reason to believe that millions were thus supported.

That slash and burn is a child of the steel axe was not so obvious and explains why the collapse was so total.
Once good crop land was abandoned for a fresh field that gave several years of crops because of the ash, it was hard to return to the likely back breaking work of the old ways. You went from a hectare to a ten hectare field and good crops for a few years. Then you went on to the next ten hectare field forgetting the one hectare ancestral plot.

It is going to take modern equipment to generally implement Terra Preta.



Why did production of terra preta stop after European contact?

Although the decimation of the Amazonian population and the collapse of the elaborate social systems that supported terra preta creation (to make all that pottery and to make all that charcoal and incorporate it up to 2 feet in the ground really does take a village) was a contributing factor, it was undoubtedly the introduction of the steel axe by the Spanish that, in combination with the impact of contact, led to slash-and-burn by small bands replacing slash-and-char by large groups. When clearing land with a stone axe, a conservation of all biomas and an intensification of soil production becomes a necessity. Steel axes — and, later, chainsaws — contributed to exploiting the very short-term benefits of ash. It must be remembered that traditional methods can die out in a single generation, and that in Amazonian social structure, the elders were responsible for all technical knowledge. It makes sense that the elders were the hardest hit by epidemics, and the loss of their cultural knowledge combined with social disruption would lead to the replacement of a deeply effective technology with an less-effective mimicry.

Did natives use special microbial brews to innoculate the soil to create terra preta?

There is no proof that a “mother” culture was used for starting terra preta. Current research indicates that the incorporation of charcoal of certain qualities (created in relatively low heat, for example) in combination with appropriate initial fertilization (often, in university tests, with conventional fertilizers that are damaging to soil life) will produce a substantial increase in yields. It is assumed that the char provides such an effective habitat for microbes that effective communities will rapidly develop within most soils. What we don’t know yet is whether the simulated terra preta will have the ability to maintain its fertility for as long as the ancient form.

Has terra preta been discovered outside of the Amazon?

Yes, high-carbon terra preta-like dark soils have been discovered in Holland, Japan, South Africa and Indonesia and are currently being studied.

Can carbon inputs other than charcoal be used?

The Japanese are extensively investigating the use of coal dust for promoting field fertility. Coal dust does seem to reproduce many of the positive effects of wood charcoal.

The research of Siegfried Marian on the benefits of carbon incorporation, as reported in Leonard Ridzon and Charles Walters’ The Carbon Connection and The Carbon Cycle, led to the development of Ridzon’s NutriCarb product (no longer being produced), which claimed agricultural benefits very similar to those claimed for terra preta . Those who want to use coal dust for soil fertility need to make certain that the dust is from brown coal, which is more humic, and that the coal does not contain toxins.

Why is terra preta often linked to alternative energy and climate change?

Terra preta is a carbon sink, as is most carbon in the soil. Slash-and-burn agriculture contributes greatly to global warming. If terra preta technologies were applied to tropical farming, less land would have to be cleared for farming, and if farmers in temperate zones such as the Midwest incorporated charcoal or other chars into their soil, more carbon could be sequestered. If this char is produced by appropriate technology, such as pyrolysis, both fuel and a “restorative, high-carbon fertilizer” can be produced. This process does not require wood — it is just as effective when agricultural wastes, such as peanut shells, are used as input. A good place to learn about this technology is at
www.eprida.com.

How much charcoal needs to be incorporated?

In published reports on pot tests of the effect of charcoal on plant growth, incorporation at 20-30 percent by weight tended to consistently produce the most benefit. In row crops, this would translate to 30 percent by weight of the top 6 inches.

Are there benefits for plant health from terra preta ?

Better plant growth and health is evident with the use of native terra preta. Current investigations are primarily being conducted by archaeologists, geologists and soil scientists. There is no evidence of terra preta studies by an agriculturist, but positive reports from growers suggest that eco-farmers would be well advised to investigate terra preta technology.

Biochar and Commercial Composting

I grabbed this from a post by Mel Landers. It is a good update on the evolving practice of composting and biochar application. A lot of this has been influenced by terra preta in the Amazon. The point is that there is plenty of help out there with the many experiments been conducted. The results have been generally encouraging, even if most of these trials are examples of over kill.

That is fair though. The original terra preta was produced because stable households were established on a hectare or so of backyard garden over time scales that approached millennia and was at worst centuries. These backyards received everything.

Larger fields saw a modest inoculation of carbon to produce terra mulatto.

This was written as a response to contracts been established to recover market waste in several South American cities. The intent is to convert the material into salable compost improved with biochar rather than chemical fertilizer.

This is a good opportunity for you to evaluate what I have suggested for large scale production of dark earth soils. There would be no better organic compost/fertilizer/soil amendment than dark earth soil. You could compare the results with what you produce with your planned procedure. The addition of biochar after composting will lower its usefulness, as any nutrients that leach out during the process could be captured by the charred material during composting.

The addition of biocharr alone is still being suggested for the production of dark earth soils. Although the charred material will certainly make the soil a few shades darker, it will in no way produce anything close to the dark earth soils that were produced in the Amazon basin before the conquest. Charred material by itself is inadequate to provide a steady supply of nutrients for crops. A healthy soil includes a high amount of stable humus. The soils on my farm had a minimum of 5.8 % organic matter content. The dark earth soils have much higher than that and the main organic component is not charred material, but stable humus.

I would suggest, at the very least, a layer of charred material as a base of your compost pile, if you are going to use a hot process; although that would be difficult to maintain, considering the turning necessary in a hot compost system. I do not suggest a hot compost however. Besides, the nutrients lost to leaching, others are cooked away in a hot compost; especially the energy producing carbohydrates that would be used to produce stable humus in an anaerobic compost process. To me, humus is too valuable of a substance to just let its components speed up the decomposition process. It’s worth the wait for the more valuable compost that includes humus.

Please, take another look at the document I composed for the seminar entitled “Humus in the Tropics,” (I think!) it is a long document, but it will give you a better idea of the value of introducing humus into your customers soil. You could excerpt parts of it to make an argument for using a slower process to fulfill your contract, should you decide to use an anaerobic process to produce a compost high in stable humus.

I would suggest the following:

Source as much non-toxic organic waste as you can. If it is contaminated by microbes, O.K. but if there are chemicals…no need to go on. I don’t know what you might have in the way of dense organic matter there that could be charred. It may need to be shipped to you, preferably already charred. Get as much vegetative waste as you can and as much high sugar waste as well, such as fruit and vegetable skins left over from processing. Manure will probably be the easiest component for you to find nearby. It may be fairly high in sugars. Chicken manure is high in Nitrogen, but lower in sugars than cow manure, for instance. But, it is good to add to the mix.

If possible, reduce the biocharr to a powder, or at least finer than chunks. Put everything through a chipper shredder, adding a little of everything before starting back through the ingredients again; rough organic matter, soft organic matter, fruit and vegetable, fish waste, biochar, manure, bone meal…whatever you have. But, if you will be trying to produce a consistent product, make sure you add only what you are sure you have a steady supply of. Course sand would be a good addition to keep the materials loose. The dark earth soils of the Amazon are high in sand, due apparently from the scooping up of river muck during the dry season for its fertility.

Brewers waste would be a good addition as it would give you plenty of yeast in the mix. This will use the sugars to produce alcohol, which will turn to vinegar (ascetic acid). When you begin to smell the batch turning sour, cover it with an impermeable layer or put into a chamber to go into an anaerobic phase. It is this slow anaerobic decomposition which will produce the best compost; although it will take months to compost instead of the weeks it would take for a highly aerobic process. All the nutrients will remain in the biomass, absorbed by the biocharr and also by the large amount of humus which will have been produced by the anaerobic process.

Although worm manure is called lumbrihumus here in Latin America, it is not humus. Humus is produced by anaerobes over months of time, while long chain carbohydrates are exposed to their amazing glue like excrement. It does not glue the chains together. It actually causes chemical bonds to form., producing extremely complex carbohydrate molecules which are quite resistant to decomposition. Humus remains stable in soil for up to hundreds of years. Charred material remains stable in soil for up to thousands of years.

Charred material holds on to nutrients tighter than does humus. The two together are much more efficient as nutrient sinks for crop production. Acting in unison, they are vital for maximum production. But, whatever the soil amendment used, if the producer keeps disturbing the soil, production will not be at its maximum. The continual destruction of mycchorizal mycelia is common in modern agriculture, unless no-till is being used, Even then, fungicides and herbicides take a heavy toll on these fungi.

The other ingredient which is found in all the dark earth soils of the Amazon basin is pieces of fired clay. (in the form of broken pot shards) Fired clay is an even better chelating agent than charred material. When you notice the white film on the surface of flower pots, you know that mineral salts have been deposited in great quantity. But, there is much more inside the pot; in the micro-pores that form as the clay expands during firing. These fill with mineral salts as nutrient laden water passes across from one surface to the other. This can be duplicated in an anaerobic compost if fired clay is present. Somewhere in Europe there are mines that dig up clay bits that are quite similar to fired clay. These would be a great addition, if not too expensive. Broken pots or roof tiles, or ground used brick would work, if available. Though the compost should function well without the clay.

Raised beds are the best option in the field, built with your black earth, high organic matter soil incorporated with the native soil and covered by a thick layer of mulch, With tied ridges every five to six meters along these contoured beds, the producer can harvest 100% of the rain that falls, instead of the 7 – 8% that enters traditionally plowed soil.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

The Moonbat Scenario

This article brings home something that the incoming administration needs to wake up to. You must not let your science policy be written by your speechwriters. Most folks attracted to the political world are simply not scientifically literate. They in fact join that vast pool of people who failed to arrive at anything close to college level competency in the sciences and who in fact escaped to the humanities where memory skills meant something and analytical skills were not overly organized.

The tragedy of our civilization is that our educators are grossly failing our children by their own failure to be properly scientifically literate. The Indians and the Chinese are not better at it than we are, they just understand how utterly important mathematical and scientific literacy is in understanding the world. Our educators sometimes pretend that it is not.

In any event, the reality is that our last few presidents were minimally scientifically literate at best. They solved this by getting a competent science advisor who was not a true believer in anything and knew how to steer the middle ground. The current president elect surely needs that as soon as possible before his true believer speech writers make a fool out of him. He does not need to get labeled like Jerry Brown did, some thirty years ago.

There are ways to placate the true believers while leaving all your options open. Particularly when Mother Nature is highly likely to be throwing cream pies in our face every time you talk about the subject and while that much touted consensus of scientific opinion is also busily distancing themselves just as quick as they can. They clearly understand what a .7 degree reversal in global temperatures after a two decade slow painful advance really means. It is time to leave Dodge. I am sure all the papers were written years ago and kept back until the weather changed.
I have never disputed the existence of a neat global warming trend through the nineties and holding up to 2007. My dispute came with the attempt to tie this to CO2 concentration when such an explanation was completely unnecessary in the first place. The sudden reversal throws that speculation out the window.
What we have instead is a remaining bubble of Global Warming belief that like the surplus heat that flowed into the Arctic last year, is about to abruptly dissipate in a very foul winter and an unwelcome return to far too normal conditions.

UK Paper: Obama Proposes 'Economic Suicide' for U.S. Based on 'Self-Deluding Lies' of Global Warming

'We have suddenly been plunged into a new age of superstition, where scientific evidence no longer counts'

UK TELEGRAPH

By Christopher Booker

November 29, 2008

If the holder of the most powerful office in the world proposed a policy guaranteed to inflict untold damage on his own country and many others, on the basis of claims so demonstrably fallacious that they amount to a string of self-deluding lies, we might well be concerned. The relevance of this is not to President Bush, as some might imagine, but to a recent policy statement by President-elect Obama.

Tomorrow, delegates from 190 countries will meet in Poznan , Poland , to pave the way for next year's UN conference in Copenhagen at which the world will agree a successor to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. They will see a video of Mr Obama, in only his second major policy commitment, pledging that America is now about to play the leading role in the fight to "save the planet" from global warming.

Mr Obama begins by saying that "the science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear". "Sea levels," he claims, "are rising, coastlines are shrinking, we've seen record drought, spreading famine and storms that are growing stronger with each passing hurricane season."

Far from the science being "beyond dispute", we can only deduce from this that Mr Obama has believed all he was told by Al Gore's wondrously batty film An Inconvenient Truth without bothering to check the facts. Each of these four statements is so wildly at odds with the truth that on this score alone we should be seriously worried.

It is true that average sea levels are modestly rising, but no faster than they have been doing for three centuries. Gore's film may predict a rise this century of 20 feet, but even the UN's International Panel on Climate Change only predicts a rise of between four and 17 inches. The main focus of alarm here has been the fate of low-lying coral islands such as the Maldives and Tuvalu .

Around each of these tiny countries, according to the international Commission on Sea Level Changes and other studies, sea levels in recent decades have actually fallen. The Indian Ocean was higher between 1900 and 1970 than it has been since. Satellite measurements show that since 1993 the sea level around Tuvalu has gone down by four inches.

Coastlines are not "shrinking" except where land is subsiding, as on the east coast of England , where it has been doing so for thousands of years. Gore became particularly muddled by this, pointing to how many times the Thames Barrier has had to be closed in recent years, unaware that this was more often to keep river water in during droughts than to stop the sea coming in.

Far from global warming having increased the number of droughts, the very opposite is the case. The most comprehensive study (Narisma et al, 2007) showed that, of the 20th century's 30 major drought episodes, 22 were in the first six decades, with only five between 1961 and 1980. The most recent two decades produced just three.

Mr Obama has again been taken in over hurricanes. Despite a recent press release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration claiming that 2008's North Atlantic hurricane season "set records", even its own release later admits that it only tied as "the fifth most active" since 1944. NOAA's own graphs show hurricane activity higher in the 1950s than recently. A recent Florida State University study of tropical cyclone activity across the world (see the Watts Up With That? website) shows a steady reduction over the past four years.

Alarming though it may be that the next US President should have fallen for all this claptrap, much more worrying is what he proposes to do on the basis of such grotesque misinformation. For a start he plans to introduce a "federal cap and trade system", a massive "carbon tax", designed to reduce America 's CO2 emissions "to their 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them an additional 80 per cent by 2050". Such a target, which would put America ahead of any other country in the world, could only be achieved by closing down a large part of the US economy.

Mr Obama floats off still further from reality when he proposes spending $15 billion a year to encourage "clean energy" sources, such as thousands more wind turbines. He is clearly unaware that wind energy is so hopelessly ineffective that the 10,000 turbines America already has, representing "18 gigawatts of installed capacity", only generate 4.5GW of power, less than that supplied by a single giant coal-fired power station.
He talks blithely of allowing only "clean" coal-fired power plants, using "carbon capture" - burying the CO2 in holes in the ground - which would double the price of electricity, but the technology for which hasn't even yet been developed. He then babbles on about "generating five million new green jobs". This will presumably consist of hiring millions of Americans to generate power by running around on treadmills, to replace all those "dirty" coal-fired power stations which currently supply the US with half its electricity.

If this sounds like an elaborate economic suicide note, for what is still the earth's richest nation, it is still not enough for many environmentalists. Positively foaming at the mouth in The Guardian last week, George Monbiot claimed that the plight of the planet is now so grave that even "sensible programmes of the kind Obama proposes are now irrelevant". The only way to avert the "collapse of human civilisation", according to the Great Moonbat, would be "the complete decarbonisation of the global economy soon after 2050".

For 300 years science helped to turn Western civilisation into the richest and most comfortable the world has ever seen. Now it seems we have suddenly been plunged into a new age of superstition, where scientific evidence no longer counts for anything. The fact that America will soon be ruled by a man wholly under the spell of this post-scientific hysteria may leave us in wondering despair.