Friday, April 18, 2008

Milpa and Earthen Kilns

Kevin has done an excellent commentary on the Earthen Kiln Conjecture which I also posted over on the terra preta forum. It has made the whole rather lengthy but sometimes that can not be helped.

He integrates his knowledge of Milpa agriculture which is the three sisters transposed into the tropics. It seemed likely that this was so and it is nice to see it confirmed. I had heard of the Milpa system before but had not quite connected it to the Amazon and even Belize. It almost certainly is the precursor to terra preta.

The evidence suggests that terra preta production was ongoing, yet I am conscious that this was not necessary. Carbon sequestration at the one ton per acre per year rate would produce a base carbon content wildly beyond what was necessary.

Kevin’s remarks are in italics. Any additional remarks of mine will be bold.

Dear Robert
Robert Klein wrote:

I am reposting to my blog http://globalwarming-arclein.blogspot.com/ this article by David Bennet with Lehmann on Terra Preta in2005. This reconfirms the most critical information as well as describes the original scope of the Indian civilization itself. Again this lays out the limiting factors and fully supports my earthen kiln conjecture.
I like your Earth Kiln Conjecture, in that it sets out a possible explanation for the presence of charcoal in TP areas.

Firstly, the maize or corn exists in an environment that mitigated against its use for purely food production. There were alternatives far better suited to the non terra preta environment, starting immediately with manioc which is a rainforest friendly plant.
See: http://www.davidparsons.net/Milpa/M_intro.html, that describes the Milpa System of primitive agriculture as is presently practised in parts of the Yucutan and Belize. Basically, a space is cleared in the jungle, and "The Three Sisters" (Maize, Beans, and Squash) were planted. This system works, and is simple but labor intensive, due to the need to clear new land every year. I would pose that Milpa was the original agriculture system, and that it evolved into the Terra Preta system, that did not require annual clearing of jungle for one crop and then 7 to 20 years of fallow. In summary, the addition of char to a Milpa Plot, would allow addition and retention of additional nutrients, to enhance growth.

I totally agree with this. Any beneficial improvement would be easily observed and copied in this system.

Secondly, the only viable source of meat protein to these peoples at this population density was through fish. Without confirmation, a pond with tilapia makes great sense. The waste from the daily meal could be readily folded into any growing seed hill. Human waste could simply have been buried in the field itself avoiding any storage.
Such a system would make sense in the context of smaller, dispersed villages. The important thing is that large villages and communities start from small villages and communities. Aquaculture was practiced in Chile or Peru, where fish were grown in the irrigation channels in the sides of mountainous terrain, where there was the grade for water conveyance. A key thing was that such "fish water" conveyed both phosphorous and potassium to the plants, in addition to the water. Tilapia are a very special fish, in that they can live on algae. Algae growth can be promoted by addition of manure to the irrigation water, and the Tilapia can grow under "green water conditions", as is employed in SE Asia Pond Culture. In larger communities, the field irrigation channels would provide a very convenient way for disposal of night soil.

I first came across Tilapia in conjunction with the Mayan ditch and bank system of producing rich gardens that was used throughout the Americas from Michigan to Chile.

> This is common practice to this day.
The making of the earthen kiln is no more difficult than uprooting the dehydrated corn stalks and properly stacking them to form an earthen walled kiln with a wall thickness of two to three root pads and an interior of tightly packed cornstalks.

Given that the Primitive Farmer went to all the work of clearing a hole in the Jungle, and given that he had one good year with a bountiful harvest, it would be a natural step to try and avoid the extra work required to clear more Jungle, to continue with the cropping/fallow cycle. It would be a lot easier to pull the maize stalks and stack them as you suggest, to dispose of them in an attempt at getting another year out of a particular Milpa Clearing. The Milpa System employs fire as a "clearing aid", and in the attached photo, charcoal is evident.

http://www.davidparsons.net/Milpa/M_practices.html. Note however, that with the Milpa System, the exposed sticks and stalks would generally burn to completion. However, with Robert's Earthen Kiln Hypothesis, the "root ball walls" would tend to collapse onto the partially burned/charred corn stocks, smothering the fire, preventing it from going to completion, and thereby producing a much higher yield of residual char than would an open bonfire.

It required only one smart farmer to think this up and try it out

Obviously, any other plant material, including wood can be built into the stack as available. The earthen wall nicely restricts air flow during the burn phase and lends itself to optimization by changing the thickness. It also minimizes the amount of human effort needed which is through the roof if you are attempting to cover a pile of stubble or branches. This gives you a kiln with vertical earthen walls and a possibly domed top that can be easily covered with earth. Again, field trials will optimize this protocol very easily. The kiln could be squared of or perhaps even circular though unlikely. The only tool to this point is a strong back or two.

Nowadays, the Milpa Farmers have the benefit of steel machetes, and would be able to easily cut the stalks from the root ball. Without a machette, it would be much easier to pull up the entire stalk, and stack the stalk and root ball in the manner suggested by Robert. Certainly, the incremental effort to pull and stack the stalks would be less than the effort to move to another site and clear more jungle.

> We have gathered several tons of corn stover over perhaps an acre of land with only a little more effort than that required to clear the field and burn the waste. Now we must fire the kiln. The easy way is to take a clay lined old basket and fill it up with coals from a wood fire. Carry this ember charge to the center of the kiln top and tip the charge onto the exposed center and place the basket as a cap to the newly forming chimney.

> More clay may be necessary to widen the chimney cap. Throw more earth on top of
this to prevent breakout of the fire. Keep growing earth on any breakout points that start.
The chimney will serve to burn all the volatiles produced as the hot zone expands to fill the collapsing kiln until they are exhausted.

If the Farmers were simply trying to get rid of vegetative waste, to avoid opening up new Jungle, then they may not have been very interested in plugging up any air leakage points. Less labor would be involved is simply "stack and burn", rather than tending the earthen kiln. They had no need to burn the volatiles to completion. Indeed, the smoke would probably be beneficial, through dispersing mosquitoes and insects.

> There upon the hot zone will cool off leaving a blend of biochar, ash and earth and
ome root ends for the next kiln. And yes, we should have a lot of fired clay.

This is very interesting. Loose earth from the root balls would not be compacted sufficiently to yield the pottery shards we now associate with Terra Preta. However, the process could very well have produced "microshards" of "pottery". Actually, this "fired soil" would not be "microshards", in that the term "shard" usually refers to "broken pieces of pottery", and it would not be "pottery", in that the term usually refers to "a formed clay shape that was fired to enhance its properties." It would be expected that this would be a "low temperature firing", and it is thus not likely that the "fired root ball pottery particles" would be able to endure the ravages of 500 to 4,000 years of tropical weathering.

I would actually be surprised to see any firing taking place in the soils themselves. However, the thin clay plate sitting on top of the chimney preventing a full burn out would get hot enough to fire. Of course, they may simply have fired sun dried plates elsewhere, but so far I have seen no evidence of such kilns.

> The biochar itself will be a range of nonvolatile combustion products that will range from even dried vegetation to activated charcoal following a nice bell curve. The material can be then gathered in baskets and redistributed into the field onto the seed hills again reducing wastage and effort. I realized originally that the only ancient plant that could accommodate a high enough volume of terra preta production was good old maize. It just seemed an unlikely option for tropical rainforests. That is when I started looking for references to the pollen record. The article by David Bennett and Lehmann is one of those references that then emerged. I would like to get a full spectrum of the pollen profile since it seems very likely that while the fence rows held the food trees, it seems more likely that they also used a variation of the three sisters using some form of convenient legume. Squashes also, of course, but not nearly as important. The key point of all this is that a family can convert a field into terra preta in one short season, allowing them to repeat the process thereafter as necessary until the field is completely transformed to depth. Today, we can do the same thing using shovels and a garbage can lid.

Terra preta: unearthing an agricultural goldmine Nov 14, 2005 10:36 AM, By David BennettIn http://www.davidparsons.net/Milpa/M_threats.html, there is reference to "insufficient period of fallow". It would indeed be advantageous to be able to extend the productive period of a Milpa, to avoid the need to clear more jungle. Weeds are a problem in a fertile soil. What they needed for sustained cropping of a given milpa area would be

1: A mulch system, that focused growth where they wanted it, and
2: Plant nutrients.

Now, people don't live in the fields where they are attempting to grow their food crops. They would live adjacent to their fields. They would, of course, be producing Nightsoil, and naturally, they would need to dispose of it. Fresh manure and night soil could

The seed hills occupy twenty five percent of the available space. The night soil can be covered with soil and placed in a new location each time. I saw this recently described in India. (it is only a problem in cold climates were breakdown is postponed.

damage the crops. For the simple reason of smell, it would make sense to have adjacent fields working on "short fallow system"... crop one field area, while applying the humanure to an adjacent area. This would allow pathogens the time to degrade to a safe level. An additional "health protection benefit" of the "Three Sisters" is that they are all "above ground crops."

They had pots made of "pottery", and these pots over time would break. It would not take long for a Farmer to discover that pottery shards make an excellent mulch, in that plants do not grow up through pottery pieces. A further benefit of such pottery mulch is that it is fireproof. It would be a relatively easy thing to simply "burn the weeds". A further benefit using such a "fireproof mulch" is that there would tend to be moisture retention below the shards, and this moisture would tend to prevent loss of organic material from the soil. Fire burning of the weed tops with pottery shards as a "fireproof mulch" would result in an increase of organic material in the soil, from the weed root system.

There is way too much ‘pottery’ to be explained by household breakage. And a clay plate or clay lined basket was clearly necessary to carry an ember charge and cap the resultant chimney. It would shatter in the heat.

> > Many soil scientists insist an ancient Amerindian agrarian society will soon
Ø make a huge impact on the modern world. They say once the intricacies and
Ø > formulation of the society’s “terra preta” (dark earth) is unlocked, the
Ø > benefits will help stop environmental degradation and bring fertility to
Ø > depleted soils. Developing and developed nations will benefit.

Ø > Milpa and Terra Preta were NOT "systems designed to prevent environmental degradation... they were systems designed to provide a supply of wholesome food on a regular and dependable basis. Certainly, obvious signs of "environmental degradation" would be dealt with, and the one concern I could see that they would have is loss of soil through erosion. Flat pottery shards would absorb the energy of falling rain, and reduce soil erosion problems.

> Orellana
>>> The story goes that in 1542, while exploring the Amazon Basin near Ecuador
> in search of El Dorado, Spanish conquistador Francisco de Orellana began
> checking the area around one of the Amazon’s largest rivers, the Rio Negro.
> While he never found the legendary City of Gold, upon his return to Spain,
> Orellana reported the jungle area held an ancient civilization — a farming
> people, many villages and even massive, walled cities.
>>> Later explorers and missionaries were unable to confirm Orellana’s reports.
> They said the cities weren’t there and only hunter-gatherer tribes roamed the
> jungles. Orellana’s claims were dismissed as myth.
>>> Scientists who later considered Orellana’s claims agreed with the negative
> assessments. The key problem, they said, was large societies need much food,
> something Amazonia’s poor soils are simply incapable of producing. And without
agriculture, large groups of people are unable to escape a nomadic existence,
> much less build cities.

> Milpa could very well progress to Terra Preta, and with the sanitation requirements for larger communities, there could very well have been a food system that evolved to support it. A classic symbiotic relationship.

> Dark earth
>>> More recently, though, Orellana’s supposed myths have evolved into distinct
> possibilities. The key part of the puzzle has to do with terra preta.
> It turns out that vast patches of the mysterious, richly fertile, man-made
> soil can be found throughout Amazonia. Through plot work, researchers claim
> terra preta can increase yields 350 percent over adjacent, nutrient-leached
> soils.

> There is absolutely no mystery or miraculous occurence here... plants grow well in nutrient rich soil and they grow poorly in nutrient poor soil. With all the burning and vegetation, it would be natural for some of the Milpa Farmers to have noticed that black soil seemed to last longer before yields fell off to the point that a fallow period was necessary. These Farmers were primitive, but they weren't stupid.

I completely agree that an association would be made between high carbon content and sustained soil fertility. I made the exact same observation as a child on our farm from what must have been a patch used to burn out a huge amount of wood during the original clearing of the land. It had the thickest and best grass on the farm.

> Many well-respected researchers now say terra preta, most of it still hidden
> under jungle canopy, could have sustained large, agronomic societies throughout Brazil
and neighboring countries.

> The "well respected researchers" don't deserve much respect, if all they can say about Terra Preta is that "... it could have sustained large agronomic societies...". They would deserve much more respect if they provided more insight into Terra Preta. :-) The above statement may have some profound content..."... terra preta, most of it hidden under Jungle canopy..." Is it perhaps possible that terra preta is simply the natural jungle soil?
> Amazing properties
>>> The properties of terra preta are amazing. Even thousands of years after> creation, the soil remains fertile without need for any added fertilizer.

This is a stretch. A very big stretch. It goes against all known "Agricultural Paradigms". Mother Nature is very strict with her rule "You never get something for nothing." The above statement would only be true if a fertile, nutrient laden soil was not used for growing, or if nothing was removed from the site as crops, or through leaching, or as food for soil organisms, or as an oxidation product..

Not so fast – the carbon grabs nutrients and holds them. Only a little is actually used each season. Without terra preta the remaining nutrients are washed away. With terra preta any fresh waste nutrients are recaptured and also made available. Thus it is no surprise that reports of sixty years without fertilization are heard. Our own system is incredibly wasteful, distorting our expectations.

> For those living in Amazonia, terra preta is increasingly sought out as a
> commodity. Truckloads of the dark earth are often carted off and sold like
> potting soil.
> Certainly, there are people who make their living all over the world bringing in topsoil, compost, and manure to areas where the soil is deficient in organic matter and nutrients.

> Chock-full of charcoal, the soil is often several meters deep. It holds
> nutrients extremely well and seems to contain a microbial mix especially suited
> to agriculture.
> Certainly, this would work. Note, however, that black soil found in a wet depression could very well have been formed naturally, without the presence of man-made charcoal. The soils are referred to a "Black Carbon" soils, and "black carbon" can occur naturally through decomposition of organic matter in anaerobic conditions.
> Thus far, despite great effort, scientists have been unable to duplicate
> production of the soil. If researchers can ever uncover the Amerindians’ terra
> preta cocktail recipe, it will help stop the environmentally devastating
> practice of slash-and-burn agriculture in the Amazon jungle. Terra preta’s
> benefits will also be exported across the globe.

> The above passage reads well, but it doesn't say much about the caliber of scientific effort being directed at figuring out how to "reverse engineer" Terra Preta!! :-)

> However, even without unlocking all of the soil’s secrets, things learned in
> the study of it are already being brought to row-crop fields.
> Among researchers studying terra preta is Johannes Lehmann, a soil
fertility management expert and soil biogeochemistry professor at Cornell
university. Lehmann, who recently spoke with Delta Farm Press, says things learned
from terra preta will help farmers with agricultural run-off, sustained fertility and input
costs. Among his comments:
>>> On how Lehmann came to terra preta research…
>>> “I spent three years living and working in degraded Amazonia field sites.
> Inevitably, if you work in the central Amazon, you come across terra preta.
> “The visual impact of these soils is amazing. Usually, the soils there are
> yellow-whitish colored with very little humus. But the terra preta is often 1
> or 2 meters deep with rich, dark color. It’s unmistakable. We know terra preta
> are preferentially cropped.”
>>> On the various properties of terra preta and its modes of action…
>>> “There are a few factors that contribute to this fertility — sustainable fertility.
> Remember, these are soils that were created 1,000 to 5,000 years ago and were
> abandoned hundreds or thousands of years ago. Yet, over all those hundreds of
> years, the soils retain their high fertility in an environment with high
> decomposition, humidity and temperatures. In this environment, according to
> text books, this soil shouldn’t exist.
>>> “That alone is fascinating for us.

> Amazonian Jungles have been in existence for much longer than the presence of Man in Amazonia. They are a natural phenomenon. They work as a result of the layer of humus on the surface of the jungle floor that captures available nutrients and releases them to jungle vegetation. An abandoned Terra Preta plot could be expected to remain fertile for a very long time, PROVIDING THAT no crops were removed from the site.

Except this is in contrast with the rapid fertility loss of all tropical soils because of the rapid movement of rainwater deep into the soils

>> “Among the most important properties are high nutrient concentrations
> (especially for calcium and phosphorus). Most likely, this is linked to a
> unique utilization of agricultural and fishery waste products.

> Certainly, one would expect higher levels of soil nutrition in the vicinity of human habitation, where they had a nightsoil and food waste resource that was at the same time, a disposal problem and a tremendous agricultural resource.

>> “We believe that fish residues are an important portion of the high
> phosphorus concentrations. Phosphorus is really the number one limiting
> nutrient in the central Amazon.

> Near River/Lake systems, natural fish could provide a good source of protein, and fish bones for fertilizer. Pond Culture may have been employed further away from rivers and lakes. Human and animal manures resulting from "new phosphorous" being brought into the area as a result of the people "importing" foods from outside the community would also result in an "above average phos level.

Also terra preta does not let the unused phosphorus to escape.
>> “Another interesting aspect of terra preta’s high fertility is the char
> (charcoal) content of the soil. This was deliberately put into the soil by the
> Indians and doesn’t only create a higher organic matter — and therefore higher
> fertility through better nutrient-retention capacity — but this special type of
> carbon is more efficient in creating these properties.
>>> “You can have the same amount of carbon in terra preta and adjacent soils
> and the infertile soil won’t change. Terra preta’s abilities don’t just rely on
> more carbon, but the fact that its char and humus is somehow more efficient in
> creating beneficial properties. That’s the truly unique aspect.”

> This is very interesting. He might be differentiating between "Black Carbon Soils" that contain "pyrocarbon" and those that only contain "natural black carbon." It is also possible that on the "poor" Black Carbon Soil plots, the Cation Exchange Sites on the charcoal and natural black carbon may be occupied by cations that were not beneficial to the plants, and thus unable to hold the nutrients that were the "bottleneck to growth."

> Having lived in the Amazon and studied it, how much terra preta does
> Lehmann believe there is?
>>> “There are no precise numbers of how much terra preta there is (in
> Amazonia). No one has done any large-scale investigation of that. It’s very
> difficult to find out in the Amazon’s jungle environment. Suitable
> remote-sensing techniques haven’t yet been used.
>>> “So (the 10 percent) estimates sometimes cited are crude extrapolations from
> the few areas we’re familiar with. But we know that in familiar areas there are
> huge patches of terra preta. These are hundreds of hectares large. When there
> have been maps produced of areas containing terra preta — say an area around a
> stream — patches are everywhere.
>>> “It is also true that terra preta is widespread. Almost anywhere in the
> central Amazon, you can step out of the car and ask a local ‘Is there any terra
> preta around?’ and they’ll show you. It’s everywhere.”
>

Effort should be made to determine if these Black Carbon Soils were the initial result of natural black carbon formation, and if the Anthropogenic contribution of charcoal to Black Carbon Soils was an incidental result of working a natural black carbon soil.

>> What were the Indians growing? Tree crops? Row crops?
>>> “There has been some pollen analysis. It suggests manioc and maize were
> being grown 2,000 to 3,000 years ago. In the pollen bank, these crops didn’t
> pop up sporadically but in large numbers.
>>> “But all kinds of crops were grown by the Indians. Palm trees,
> under-story fruit trees, Brazil nut trees — all were very important.”
>>> On the differences between slash-and-burn and slash-and-char agriculture…
>>> “We have very good indications that the Amerindian populations couldn’t have
> practiced slash-and-burn and created these soils.

> This statement should be clarified. There is indeed very good evidence that the Mayans in the Yucatan have indeed been practising "slash and burn" agriculture on a sustainable basis for thousands of years. Milpa is "slash and burn" on a patchwork basis.

>> “It’s also highly unlikely that a population relying on stone axes would
> have practiced slash-and-burn anyway. The normal soils are so poor that with a
> single slash-and-burn event, you can only crop without fertilizer for two years
> at most. Then the soil has to be left fallow again.

> Yes, that is what the Mayans found also. This is where the addition of Humanure could have led to sustained "single site tropical agriculture." Additional nutrients would give immediate feedback to the Farmer, and would encourage him to do it again next season"

>> “Primary forest trees have a diameter of 2 or 3 meters. If all you had was a
> stone ax in your hand, you’d find a different way to deal with agriculture than
> felling these huge trees every two years.

> Huge trees take a long time to grow, especially in nutrient poor soils. The cycle time of cropping a Milpa Site is about 7 to 20 years; replacement trees would be nowhere as large as 2 to 3 meters in diameter. Note that such large trees can be easily taken down by primitive technology.... simply chop or burn the anchor roots and wait for the first good windstorm. When the tree fell, it could be disposed of by burning. These tree stems and branches could have been a significant source of charcoal for the site.

The easiest way was to simply girdle all the trees and come back in a couple of years. The voracious climate would be quickly reducing the remaining material.

>> “The difference between (the two systems) is the slash-and-char wouldn’t
> burn in an open fire. Charcoal would be produced under partial exclusion of
> oxygen. We envision that happening by natives covering up piled up logs with
> dirt and straw. These charcoal-making systems are still being used around the
> world.”

In the photo referenced above, there is clear evidence of charcoal having been produced, and there is no evidence of effort been expended to prevent total burning of the wood.

>> How close are researchers to duplicating terra preta?
>>> “We’re working intensively. We don’t need to take any terra preta anywhere.
> What we want to do is become knowledgeable about how terra preta was created
> and then create it elsewhere with local resources.
>>> “Research on this is ongoing in Columbia, in Kenya. I have research
> colleagues in Japan and Indonesia also working on this. At the moment, there is
> a lot of excitement but there’s a lot of work to do.”
> It would indeed be interesting to know the avenues being pursued by the various researchers.

>> How terra preta could help industrialized countries…
>>> “We envision systems based on some of the principles of terra preta. And
> this isn’t just for tropical agriculture. This could be very important for U.S.
> agriculture.
>>> “Terra Preta could mean a reduction in environmental pollution. What works
> as a retaining mechanism in Amazonia could work in the United States where
> there are concerns of phosphates and nitrates entering groundwater and streams.
> We have only begun to realize the potential of how this could reduce pollution
> in industrialized countries.

> "Pollution in industrial Countries" was not a concern of the Amazonians. Having a fertile soil and a secure food supply was a concern. Segregating Municipal Sewage from toxic Industrial Waste should allow safer and more widespread application of Municipal Sewage into agricultural systems, reducing such sewage pollution

>> “Luckily the principles of creating bio-char soils will be very similar no
> matter what area of the world you’re in. Results obtained in Brazil will be
> pertinent for the United States.
> One should be careful here. There are many very fertile "Black Soils" throughout the world that have "Natural Black Carbon", and where there is no "bio-char" that was made by a pyro process.

>> “In terms of widespread adoption, it’s still some way away. There are still
> knowledge gaps. For instance, we know there are important differences in the
> effects of bio-char on soil fertility depending on what material you use and
> what temperature and under what conditions the char is produced. That’s
> something we should be able to resolve within a year or two. Once that’s done,
> we can take the systems to Extension Services around the world and make larger
> scale, on-farm research plots.
>

Fertilizer additions seem to be an important part of the research work. Little is said about the importance of fertilizers and nutrients, the emphasis is primarily on the "bio-char", with little apparent recognition of the importance of "natural black carbon" in the soils.

Best wishes

Kevin

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Potatoes Rising

Sometimes, you forget what you know. I thank Terry Wade for reminding me that the potato revolution is long from over. The potato single handedly freed Europe from endemic famine and fed the population expansion from the seventeenth century to the present.

That China has made such a huge investment in potato production comes as a complete surprise. That India also will is another surprise.

Yet the logic is there. A mere acre of land can easily produce over a ton of potatoes. I know this from personal experience. It takes several acres to produce the equivalent in grains. This is why famine is no longer a real threat anywhere unless it is artificially caused.

The only difficulty is that at the subsistence level it takes a little more labor than almost any other crop. For the uninitiated, besides cutting seed eyes and planting them several inches deep, one has to also hill the rows at least twice, if not three times, normally by hand with a hoe. However, an acre of such work is not onerous and it is the best payoff in the household garden with enough for a family all winter.

It also solves another issue that I was mulling over. Subsistence level biochar production with corn root earthen kilns requires a sister crop to plant every second season at the least. The Amazon Indios were able to use cassava in the rainforest. This is an unlikely option elsewhere. The fact is that the potato is suitable everywhere else that you are able to grow corn.

Thus in one season the land can produce a ton of corn and in the next season a couple tons of potatoes. If one is additionally growing legumes with the corn as in the three sisters system, then the soil is getting a nitrogen boost.

Returning to my favorite tropical soils that are today a disaster, this growing protocol has one other advantage. Freshly cleared and broken soil requires a great deal of working in order to provide a quality seedbed. The extra hilling needed for potatoes does exactly this.

I once converted a section of lawn into a planting bed by first breaking and turning the sod deeply enough to give me several inches of working soil. I then planted potatoes. By season’s end I had a fine seedbed. The potatoes were scarred from a too biologically active soil but by then I knew how to work with the resultant soil. And I had my bed. I would recommend this process to any hobby gardener who wants to restore flower beds.

I am optimistic that huge tracts of tropical soils can be brought into continuous cultivation using this virtuous corn potato protocol producing viable livelihoods for a couple of billion people at least. I would expect to feed a family of several mouths on perhaps two to three acres of tropical soils that once could only give one crop in fifteen years. Just three growing seasons per year with one crop of corn and two crops of potatoes would produce about ten tons of potatoes and likely a couple of tons of corn on two to three acres of land. I suspect that this is much more productive than a rice paddy.

As other staples soar, potatoes break new ground

TERRY WADE
Reuters

April 16, 2008 at 9:04 AM EDT
LIMA — As wheat and rice prices surge, the humble potato - long derided as a boring tuber prone to making you fat - is being rediscovered as a nutritious crop that could cheaply feed an increasingly hungry world.

Potatoes, which are native to Peru, can be grown at almost any elevation or climate: from the barren, frigid slopes of the Andes Mountains to the tropical flatlands of Asia. They require very little water, mature in as little as 50 days, and can yield between two and four times more food per hectare than wheat or rice.

"The shocks to the food supply are very real and that means we could potentially be moving into a reality where there is not enough food to feed the world," said Pamela Anderson, director of the International Potato Center in Lima , a non-profit scientific group researching the potato family to promote food security.

Like others, she says the potato is part of the solution.

The potato has potential as an antidote to hunger caused by higher food prices, a population that is growing by one billion people each decade, climbing costs for fertilizer and diesel, and more cropland being sown for biofuel production. To focus attention on this, the United Nations named 2008 the International Year of the Potato, calling the vegetable a "hidden treasure."

Governments are also turning to the tuber. Peru's leaders, frustrated by a doubling of wheat prices in the past year, have started a program encouraging bakers to use potato flour to make bread. Potato bread is being given to school children, prisoners and the military, in the hope the trend will catch on.

Supporters say it tastes just as good as wheat bread, but not enough mills are set up to make potato flour.

"We have to change people's eating habits," said Ismael Benavides, Peru's agriculture minister. "People got addicted to wheat when it was cheap."

Even though the potato emerged in Peru 8,000 years ago near Lake Titicaca, Peruvians eat fewer potatoes than people in Europe: Belarus leads the world in potato consumption, with each inhabitant of the Eastern European state devouring an average of 171 kilograms a year.

India has told food experts it wants to double potato production in the next five to 10 years. China, a huge rice consumer that historically has suffered devastating famines, has become the world's top potato grower. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the potato is expanding more than any other crop right now.

The developing world is where most new potato crops are being planted, and as consumption rises poor farmers have a chance to earn more money.

"The countries themselves are looking at the potato as a good option for both food security and also income generation," Ms. Anderson said.

The potato is already the world's third most-important food crop after wheat and rice. Corn, which is widely planted, is mainly used for animal feed.

One factor helping the potato remain affordable is the fact that unlike wheat, it is not a global commodity, so has not attracted speculative professional investment.

Each year, farmers around the globe produce about 600 million tonnes of wheat, and about 17 per cent of that flows into foreign trade.

Wheat production is almost double that of potato output. Analysts estimate less than 5 per cent of potatoes are traded internationally.

Raw potatoes are heavy and can rot in transit, so global trade in them has been slow to take off. They are also susceptible to infection with pathogens, hampering export to avoid spreading plant diseases.

But science is moving fast. Genetically modified potatoes that resist "late blight" are being developed by German chemicals group BASF. Scientists say farmers who use clean, virus-free seeds can boost yields by 30 per cent and be cleared for export.

Touting the tubers

257.25 million - World potato production in 1991 (tonnes)
320.71 million - World potato production in 2007 (tonnes)
110 - Number of calories in a medium-sized potato.
5 - Number of kilograms of potatoes needed to produce one litre of vodka.

Sources: Reuters, UN Food and Agriculture Organization

Top potato producers

In 2007, in millions of tonnes: China 72, Russian Fed. 35.7, India 26.3, Ukraine 19.1, U.S. 17.7, Germany 11.6, Poland 11.2, Belarus 8.5, Netherlands 7.2, France 6.3

Source: UN Food and Agriculture Organization

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Great Barrier Reef

I quote this little item out of Australia. It is a timely reminder that the media is profoundly lazy and insecure in their shallow knowledge and will pile on any fashion to tell a good story.

These days I am perusing dozens of stories with little or no credible linkage to the global warming theme, yet everyone is assigning the label to just about any apparent environmental anomaly.

Perhaps I should construct a story about how global warming is causing the miraculous recovery of the Great Barrier Reef.

None of this is advancing knowledge or actions where action is truly mandated and is promoting action were none is warranted. Today I see a story suggesting that George Bush is about to announce some sort of action on global warming. I hope it is a hoax.


They survived this, they’ll survive warming
Andrew Bolt

Wednesday, April 16, 2008 at 12:03am

You know those scare campaigns every few years about the Great Barrier Reef facing extinction thanks to global warming? Relax. It turns out that coral is actually so tough you couldn’t kill it with a nuclear bomb. In fact, much of the stuff just grows back fine, the seas are so coral-friendly these days:

SOME corals are again flourishing on Bikini Atoll, the Pacific site of the largest American atom bomb ever exploded, but other species have disappeared… Ms Richards said she did not know what to expect when she dived on the crater but was surprised to find huge matrices of branching Porites coral - up to eight metres high - had established, creating thriving coral reef habitat.

The truth is that I never understood this story at all. Mankind’s involvement with the massive reef is at best ephemeral and it is remote from the type of coastal pollution you see around Taiwan for example. Any observed collapse phenomena was most likely no more than a natural event that simply had not been observed before.

The most powerful force affecting natural populations is the predator prey cycle. Many of these will swing from a massive destruction of the host environment, through near complete collapse through a long slow rebuilding and recovery and suddenly back to massive destruction. Whatever happened on the reef looked very much like that.

We should be more concerned about the ongoing unnecessary influx of pollutants into the sea off the industrial heartlands of the world. Most such pollutants are actually safe to dump this way, but the problem is the lack of an audit trail that allows us to spot truly dangerous pollutants getting into the environment.

It likely required trivial abatement systems and a dose of common sense to prevent the dumping of mercury compounds in Japan fifty years ago, but no regulatory system was in place to catch it.

Does anyone actually believe that the Chinese are on top of this threat yet? Or India? I know that while most individuals in charge of these situations will do the right thing, there are always individuals who are both reckless and ignorant who are utterly focused on short term results. Every disaster will shake out another such fool.

In any event, it is fair to say that the global warming theme is been devalued by this sort of nonsense diverting attention.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Lester Thurow on Sub Prime Credit

It is always nice to propose a bold solution to an economic crisis and to see it mirrored by a leading economist a couple of weeks later. See my post march 17 on credit stabilization

Lester Thurow makes three recommendations. His first on marking the mortgages to market, eating the loss and saving the borrowers differs from my proposal only in not going the extra mile whereby a fifty percent stake over strike price is retained in the property until sold years later. This is a disaster internal to the USA that has been partially passed on to the global financial system. The USA oversight mechanism has been caught napping and must accept guilt and pay the piper. This is the best possible fix. Right now, our failure is toying with putting the global economy into a massive tailspin and global economic contraction that will take a decade to recover from.

The alternative is to allow the destruction of wealth to continue its natural course over the next several years. The real losers will still be the same lenders, and most of that money likely came from pension funds whose net worth will contract. The individuals will walk away and spend years putting it all back together slowly. The proposed solution will hugely shorten this recovery period.

Imagine the damage if the savings and loan debacle of the mid eighties had been solved by stiffing all the depositors.

The sooner we get started on this emergency legislation the better.

Lester’s other two recommendations are not nearly as compelling or even wise.

$100 oil exists for a very good reason and that is to encourage a crash program of energy expansion. This is happening now. The only glitch is that it takes a few years for the influx of fresh capital to be organized and deployed. The most critical investment in THAI started last year with a mere $40,000,000. Next year that will be $500,000,000 and then it will be five billion and then perhaps between 2010 and 2015 it will be fifty billion. Thereafter, this technology will be generating many millions of barrels of oil per day and prices will slowly subside to levels that balance demand. While this is all happening, the global economy will pass through a massive readjustment with necessary new energy strategies and economies.

Outsourcing is another false economy. The global economy is driven by consumption. The consumer has a finite supply of cash in his jeans. Perhaps fifteen percent of that cash ends up going to the primary manufacturer’s labor force. The rest goes to the fine art of delivering those goods into our hands. All that money gets spent domestically.

Yes our manufacturing job sector is expanding very slowly, but the rest of the economy has boomed getting those imported goods into our hands. Quit chasing those lost milling jobs that paid sweat shop wages to poor immigrants (now illegal) and support high end skilled jobs in the industries we are good at. It worked for the Europeans and it will surely work for us. There is a lot to be said for dynamic destruction.

Do you really think that we would have had the wide screen TV screen anytime soon if the manufacturers were relying on production runs aimed solely at the USA market? The market is now a global middle class of one billion on the way to two billion. Our ultimate share of that market is going to be fifteen percent and declining.

The market is inevitably taking care of the latter two issues and the USA is not necessarily a leader there for much longer. This has the benefit of producing an army of natural economic allies that share our interests and will carry a lot of the heavy lifting. I would much rather see Europe and Japan negotiate beneficial terms of trade than to be dragged into it as lead and getting blamed for every misstep.

The sub prime issue is made at home and we must do our own housecleaning. It cannot and must not be exported as the great depression was exported in the thirties. If we do this fix, the housing market will rebound quickly and within five years it will be largely a bad memory just as was the savings and loan debacle.

It's got to hurt before it gets better

There are solutions to high oil prices, the housing crisis and outsourcing, but they require some sacrifice.

By Lester C. Thurow


April 11, 2008

The financial crisis in the United States is not a crisis if you do not want to sell your home, do not have a house with a sub-prime mortgage and have a good job that you are not about to lose.



Very few Americans have to sell their homes right now. Those who bought a house on speculation get what they get. After all, they "speculated" and lost. Very few Americans have a sub-prime mortgage. Those with bad credit have bad credit. Most have a job they are not about to lose.



So what is all the fuss about? The meltdown of the financial markets.



Shouldn't we just let the big guys lose? After all, they are big guys. The answer is no. The credit markets, like those before the 1929 crash and during the Depression, affect us all.



What should be done?


The answer starts with the heart of the problem: the sub-prime mortgages. These mortgages have to be written down to less than the current value of the house so that if the borrower walks away, he or she has something to lose. The government (taxpayer) is going to have to pay to write down these mortgages. This is the subsidy -- and the only subsidy -- that should be given to the lenders.



If the borrowers don't walk away from their sub-prime mortgages, there is no crisis in the financial markets.



In the future, we can regulate the markets to prevent sub-prime mortgages. But that is the future. Let's get to the real crisis: the rising cost of oil and the outsourcing of American jobs.

There is a solution to the rising cost of oil, but it is a painful one. Let's say there is a lot of $20-a-barrel oil in the world -- deep-sea oil, Canadian tar sands. But who would look for $20-a-barrel oil if someone else (Saudi Arabia) has lots of $5-a-barrel oil? The answer is: no one.



Basically, American taxpayers have to guarantee potential producers that the price in the future will not fall below $20 a barrel and that they will not lose their investments.



This is easy to do. The U.S. needs to guarantee that it will buy all of its oil at $20 a barrel before buying anything from OPEC. This forces the price of oil down to $20 a barrel, but it eliminates the possibility that it will ever go back to $5 a barrel.



Painful!

Outsourcing has an equally simple solution. Let us encourage the dollar to fall. At some value of the dollar, it will pay producers to bring jobs back to the United States.

Suppose the dollar has to fall a lot -- let us assume 50%. Who cares? Only those Americans who plan to take foreign trips or buy something abroad. It costs them more. For those who want to go to the tropics, there are the U.S. Virgin Islands. If the solutions are so simple, why don't we do them? Because all of them are painful.



Write-downs for sub-prime mortgages cost money. Oil at $20 a barrel guarantees there will be no $5-a-barrel oil. A lower dollar guarantees foreign trips and purchases will cost more.


We have Herbert Hoover when we need Franklin Roosevelt. Luckily, we will have a new president and a new Congress come January, but January is a long time away.


Basically, we require changes from President Bush now. He needs to propose a write-down in the sub-prime mortgages, propose a guarantee in the price of oil and let the dollar fall. Unfortunately, the first two are not likely. Only the third will happen with or without his approval. As long as we have a large current account deficit, the dollar will fall. It has to for some very simple reasons.


To get foreign currencies to pay for the deficit, we must borrow from abroad. Eventually, foreigners get tired of lending because they will lose money on their holdings of dollars if the dollar falls further.


At the same time, the big American guys move money into foreign currencies to take advantage of the falling dollar. When they move money back into dollars, they have more dollars. Essentially, they have an infinite amount of money to move.


As they move money, the current account deficit gets bigger and bigger, and the pressure on the dollar to fall only grows.


We need to do something! Take painful actions! Gridlock is the worst of all worlds.

Lester C. Thurow is a professor of management and economics and dean emeritus at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His latest book is "Fortune Favors the Bold: What We Must Do to Build a New and Lasting Global Prosperity."

Monday, April 14, 2008

Ethanol Dreaming

Chris Calder says in this posting a few things that needed to be said very loudly, particularly when we are been forcibly reminded that out agricultural output has never been designed to accept massive diversion of food ever into non food applications Total human total consumption is very inelastic as common sense will tell you. It is inconvenient to either halve consumption or to double it. It is much more elastic horizontally as usage changes. In any event, the naive diversion of corn into ethanol has apparently unbalanced the global food market sufficiently to cause the first major price run up in decades.

The good news is that every farmer will now press every resource into an increase in next season’s production, so we may now expect a major surplus in six months ending the supply threat. Which is why fertilizer is now expensive.

My interjections are in bold.

Why ethanol from cellulose is a hoax!

The biofuel zealots falsely claim that our current disastrous use of corn for ethanol production is only temporary, and is somehow a building block or stepping stone for future ethanol production from switchgrass, crop waste, wood chips, and other sources of cellulose. The problem is that the equipment (manufacturing plants) used to make corn vodka (ethanol) are of no use in making ethanol from cellulose, which is a complex and expensive two stage process requiring new plant construction and costing millions upon millions of dollars. The current cost of making ethanol from cellulose is the same as making gasoline from crude oil that costs $305. a barrel. As ethanol has 30% less energy than gasoline and thus delivers poor gas mileage, this product is currently economically dead. If we can improve our methods and cut the cost in half, that still brings us to an oil equivalent price of gasoline made from crude oil at about $150 a barrel, plus we still have the 30% loss in energy per gallon compared to gasoline. Even if they got the cost down to an oil equivalent of $100 a barrel, it is still not a good deal because of the 30% energy loss inherent to ethanol, which cannot be changed unless you make another fuel product altogether.

Mother Nature had to make cellulose incredibly resistant to biological reduction in order to do its job. The enzymes used by the termite appear promising in overcoming this barrier. Again work on this avenue has barely begun and I certainly do not think that it will bear much fruit for years. What makes cellulose totally maddening is that it is constructed from chains of glucose itself. In other words, it is practically pure sugar. And there is certainly no lack of raw material whose conversion could be nicely integrated into our agricultural and silviculture management systems. However, to think it is a near term solution to energy production is at best baseless.

As expected, many money hungry companies are making big claims about having bacteria that can make ethanol from cellulose work, but ask yourself how and at what price? If they had a bacteria that could do the job instantly it would be the ultimate anti-human life weapon, because if it got loose it would eat up the earth's biosphere and we would have nothing left but bacteria. Obviously, you can make ethanol from lots of substances given enough time and money, and "time is money." It takes time and specific conditions (usually higher temperatures) to make these bugs work, and the time it takes to rot or dissolve wood chips and switchgrass into something that can then be fermented into alcohol is a complex, time consuming, and expensive process.

A new study from three agricultural economists at Iowa State University with insider information on the latest biofuel technology says ethanol made from cellulose will likely NEVER be affordable The Federal tax credits for ethanol made from cellulose would have to be raised from the current $.51 to $1.55 per gallon, which will be unacceptable to Congress and the American public. Switchgrass, crop waste, and wood chip biofuel schemes are too expensive to ever work!

The newspaper article can be found here

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/3/3/125745/7746

The full study can be found here - pdf 180kb at:

http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/DBS/PDFFiles/08wp460.pdf

Coming soon after the Princeton study published in SCIENCE showing that all biofuels are far worse for the environment and global warming than gasoline leaves the biofuel zealots little cover to hide behind.

Of course, the only problem with gasoline is that it is converting sequestered carbon into atmospheric carbon at a faster rate than it can be returned in some other form. Even without the panic over global warming this is an unwise and clearly unsustainable option and must be solved, which is the principal problem this blog addresses.


SEE - http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1151861

Another problem with our current corn vodka infrastructure is that it is located in the wrong areas, and not near the "marginal" prairie lands" that Bush wants to grow switchgrass on. So the idea that corn ethanol is a stepping stone to anything but more corn ethanol is a BIG LIE!

Welcome to public relations or ‘American know-how’

Quoted from my web page.

"The outlook for biofuels is dismal - Growing massive amounts of switchgrass to produce ethanol from lignocellulose has most of the same drawbacks as making ethanol from corn. We will use land, water, fertilizer, farm equipment, and labor to grow switchgrass that will be diverted from food production, with soaring food prices a result. If we grow switchgrass on land currently used to graze cattle, we will reduce beef and milk production. If we grow switchgrass on unused "marginal" prairie lands, we will soon turn those marginal lands into a new dust bowl, which they may turn into anyway due to global warming. Computer models for the progression of global warming show the America Midwest and Southwest getting hotter and dryer, with much of our farm and grazing land turning into desert. We know that biofuel production will speed up global warming, so why are we pinning so much hope on an environmental battle plan that any fool can see will blow up in our face over time? We won't be able to produce enough biofuels to run our cars, or enough food to fill our bellies.


The very process of making ethanol from lignocellulose has not been proven to be economically viable (cellulosic ethanol not affordable, pdf 180kb), and the Bush energy bill assumes new scientific breakthroughs that have not occurred. Some new biofuel crops are toxic weeds which will have a destructive impact on wildlife and biodiversity around the world. In practical terms, there is not enough usable land area to grow a sufficient quantity of biofuel plants to meet the world's energy demands. Even if the USA dedicated 100% of our corn and soybean production to biofuels, we would only satisfy 12% of gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand. To quote Stuart Staniford, "The biofuel potential of the entire human food supply is quite a small amount of energy compared to the global oil supply - somewhere between 15 to 20% on a volumetric basis, so 10 to 15% on an energy basis." Every year the human race burns up the equivalent of 400 years worth of planetary vegetation in the condensed form of fossil fuels. How are we going to replace all that concentrated energy by growing biofuel crops on our desperately overpopulated, pure water starved little planet?


Growing algae to make biodiesel is being touted as a cure-all for all our biofuel problems, but we are still stuck with the fact that algae need solar energy to turn carbon dioxide into fuel. To make biodiesel, algae are used as organic solar panels which output oil instead of electricity. Research reports brag that algae can produce 15 times more fuel per acre of land than growing corn for ethanol, but that still means we would need approximately 30 million acres of concrete or plastic lined algae ponds to meet 100% of projected US automotive fuel usage by the year 2022.

It is shaping up to be a lot better than that and the use of rack suspended sleeves provides a high degree of process control also. Thirty million acres sounds like a lot, but is orders of magnitude different from the five hundred million acres needed for plant oil. In fact the non agricultural lands of the west are more than suitable and sufficient to supply all the fuel oil we need.

A greenhouse closed system also allows recycling of the water. I also suspect that we produce a fifty-fifty oil/ solids product stream, and if we are really smart the solids can be used even as cattle feed or even indirectly as a source of sugar.

We are not too far away and right now our best ally is algae itself. The short life span allows a rapid cycle of experimentation. Thus a new protocol can be shaken out in months once undertaken. Therefore, I am very optimistic and with the greenhouses already built and operated, we are already into second generation production methodology.

Those algae schemes that use less land invariably call for feeding algae sugar. Sugar must be made from corn, beets, or other crop, so you are simply trading ethanol potential to make oil instead of vodka. If you grow genetically engineered super-algae in open-air ponds, the genetically modified algae will be immediately carried to lakes, reservoirs, and oceans all over the world in the feathers of migrating birds, with unknown and possibly catastrophic consequences. Using agricultural waste water for algae production is a good idea, but algae may be more logically used for making modest amounts of animal feed, as algae is very costly to turn into fuel.

Using agricultural "waste" to make biofuels has its own problems. Removing unused portions of plants that are normally plowed under increases the need for nitrogen fertilizers, which release the most potent greenhouse gas of all; nitrous oxide. Much of the residual crop biomass must be returned to the soil to maintain topsoil integrity, otherwise the rate of topsoil erosion will increase dramatically. If we mine our topsoil for energy, we will end up committing slow agricultural suicide like the Mayan Empire. Without topsoil, the world starves! Using wood chips to make ethanol sounds like a good idea until you remember that we currently use wood to make pellet fuel for stoves, paper, particle board, and a thousand and one building products. Every part of the trees we cut down for lumber are used for something, including the bark which is used for garden mulch. The idea of sending teams of manual laborers into forests to salvage underbrush for fuel would be prohibitively expensive. Our forests are already stressed just producing lumber without tasking them with producing liquid biofuels for automobiles, a scheme which will inevitably drive up the price of everything made from wood, creating yet another resource crisis."

------
Please visit my page on biofuels, "The biofuel hoax is causing a world food crisis!" at:

http://home.att.net/~meditation/bio-fuel-hoax.html

You can find the latest biofuel disaster news at

http://home.att.net/~meditation/biofuel-news.html

Christopher Calder

Friday, April 11, 2008

Network Media Bias on Global Warming

I picked this article up from Alex Jone’s Infowars and it is well worth a perusal. The headliner is perhaps a bit unfair, but the result is the same. We are not talking here about the print media. Broadcast visual media is very much about a single message sound bite. It is impossible to transmit a complex idea in this form that is not both visual and brief. Thus we have an active scientific debate with many interlocking issues such as global warming reduced to a beauty contest and as utterly misleading.

I think those who have followed me over the past year appreciate the real difficulty in arriving at an optimal conclusion. Many relevant issues actually pull in completely different directions reducing us all to a position of great caution.

Yet a semi literate newsman with a negligible science background must report on such a story by deadline. Of course he is going to grab any semblance of a supporting story that stays with the herd and contradiction will be the rare exception. Since his response is now predictable, promoters will tailor their pitch to exploit this. That surely means that that big new pyrolysis plant next to the dump is in fact a gasifier doing its bit for global warming. A while back it was the environmental abatement system doing it’s bit for the environment and before that it was the town incinerator. Once again, it all gets burned. No one gets to even buy drums of char or production liquids.

In any event, Al Gore’s vision of the future is now the accepted view of the future by the media, which is why this is a blog on global warming rather than reducing CO2 and uplifting the agricultural poor.

Science would just as soon conduct its business without the controversy, but controversy is necessary to promote informed response and ultimate decision making. For example, it is clearly a mistake to delude ourselves into actions aimed at abating global warming, since we have seen that so far the variation is well within expected channels. It is not a mistake to take action to drawdown CO2 from the atmosphere since it is certainly rising and should be globally offset. Theories of linkage simply do not matter in that decision framework and if you wish to believe one is causing the other, then far be it for me to naysay.

Balanced reporting has always been a luxury saved for the influential, while the sound bite is for everyone else in an attempt to inform and shape opinion in a hurry and does not respect the audience.

"They [penguins] are charismatic, endearing and in serious trouble," warned NBC’s Anne Thompson on the Dec. 12, 2007, "Nightly News." Thompson didn’t include any disagreement.

While the networks had plenty of time to worry about the future of birds, most network news shows didn’t take much time to include any other point of view even though hundreds of scientists have expressed skepticism of manmade climate change theory.

Another NBC reporter, Kerry Sanders, hyped the threat of warming to polar bears and walruses on Dec. 9, 2007, "a world scientists say may melt away by 2050." Sanders didn’t include any scientists who disagreed with that claim.

The lack of balance on the issue prompted one network journalist, John Stossel of ABC, to do a story on the media’s one-sidedness on “20/20” Oct. 19, 2007.

“You’ve heard the reports. The globe is warming. And it’s our fault. And the consequences will be terrible. But you should know there is another side to this story,” teased Stossel as he began his “Give me a Break” segment.

There is another side to the issue. In one story, Stossel interviewed four scientists critical of the so-called “consensus” on global warming. That’s four more dissenting scientists than CBS put on its network in six entire months.

To better assess network behavior on this key topic, the Business & Media Institute examined 205 stories from ABC, CBS and NBC that mentioned "global warming" or "climate change" between July 1, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2007.

BMI found skepticism was shut out of a vast majority of reports. Overall, a measly 20 percent had any dissent at all referenced by a journalist or guest.

Skeptical voices were suppressed by the networks, outnumbered by nearly a 7-to-1 ratio by those promoting fear of climate change or being used by the network for the same purpose. CBS had an even worse record: nearly 38 proponents to one skeptic.

Lengthy segments like Scott Pelley’s Oct. 21, 2007, "60 Minutes" story on "The Age of Megafires" certainly had time to include an alternative point of view to the notion that global warming is largely responsible for bigger, hotter fires in the American West. But Pelley skipped those voices – voices like a University of California Merced professor published on the Washington Spokesman-Review Web site about the California wildfires.

According to Alan Zarembo’s Oct. 24, 2007, story,
“Scientists said it would be difficult to make that case, given the combustible mix of drought and wind that has plagued the region for centuries or more.”
Anthony Westerling, a UC-Merced professor and climate scientist, told Zarembo that the wildfires were the result of two “staples of the region’s climatic history,” meaning “strong Santa Ana winds” and “a drought that turned much of the hillsides to bone-dry kindling.”

"Neither can be attributed to climate change," said Westerling.

The near blackout of skepticism on the networks didn’t come as much of a surprise, since reporters like Pelley have been much more than onlookers in the story of global warming. In many cases they have become advocates – even going “to the ends of the earth” “to find evidence of climate change.”

Ann Curry of NBC’s “Today” made that clear on Oct. 29, 2007: “[O]ur mission, of course, is to find evidence of climate change.”

When people with other views were mentioned, it sometimes came with a denigrating label like “deniers” or “cynics.” Such critics were also portrayed as flat-earthers by journalists and guests. One person skeptical of manmade climate change, a Kentucky state representative, managed to get on the air but was treated to an exceptionally hostile interview by ABC’s Bill Weir.

There were many other flaws in the reporting that created a very one-sided perspective. Journalists repeatedly phrased questions or made statements indicating human-caused warming was a fact, and they included opinions of politicians, movie stars, musicians and ordinary people like bankers instead of relying on scientists.

But according to Dr. Pat Michaels viewers would be better served by hearing both sides. “They would benefit from appreciating the true scientific diversity on the topic. The arguments against these gloom and doom global warming scenarios are much stronger than the arguments for them,” Michaels told BMI.

According to NBC’s Brian Williams, “There’s no shortage of folks out there saying it’s [global warming is] not all that bad.” Williams was teasing a “Nightly News” story on August 15 that included two other voices: Dr. Pat Michaels, a research professor of environmental sciences, and Marlo Lewis, senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Williams was certainly right – there are hundreds of scientists from around the world who question the global warming “consensus” – but in the news the latter half of 2007 you had to look hard to find them.
On the three networks, 80 percent of stories (167 out of 205) didn’t mention skepticism or anyone at all who dissented from global warming alarmism. CBS did the absolute worst job. Ninety-seven percent of its stories (34 out of 35) ignored other opinions. Williams’ own network, NBC, came in a close second with 85 percent (76 out of 89) excluding skepticism. ABC was the most balanced network, but still censored dissent from 64 percent of its stories (34 out of 53).

But dissent flourishes. The U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee released a
list on Dec. 20, 2007, of more than 400 skeptical scientists from different fields – astrophysics, geology, climatology, meteorology and others. The release didn’t even earn a news brief from one of the three networks as of Dec. 31, 2007.

Even when one show claimed it would represent a range of opinions on the issue, it didn’t. On Oct. 30, 2007, NBC “Today” co-host Matt Lauer teased the upcoming “Ends of the Earth” broadcasts saying to Meredith Vieira, “And you’re going to be interviewing all the experts talking about the issues of climate change.” (emphasis added)

Vieira replied, “Absolutely. Getting into a whole debate, too, because some people believe there’s an effect of climate change, others say not really. So we’re going to discuss all of it and give viewers at home real tips on what you can do.”

But on Nov. 5 and 6, 2007 as “Today” went to the “Ends of the Earth,” the only “experts” Vieira spoke to were former vice president Al Gore, Chip Giller of Grist.org – a left-wing environmental Web site – and Katherine Wroth, co-author of “Wake Up and Smell the Planet.”

Grist is an extreme publication. David Roberts of the environmentalist magazine called for
"war crimes trials for these bastards ¬– some sort of climate Nuremberg," referring to the climate change "denial industry." (Roberts later retracted his comment, but not until it received a strongly negative response.)

The only skepticism of global warming “consensus” that came up was a brief mention by Vieira as she interviewed Gore. She asked Gore about John Christy, one scientist formerly with the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), who criticized Gore’s predictions in an op-ed printed in The Wall Street Journal. Gore shot back calling Christy an “outlier.”

Vieira didn’t question Gore’s remark or give Christy an opportunity to respond to the attack. Perhaps if she had, Christy would have echoed his remarks from the Nov. 1, 2007,
Wall Street Journal:

“I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never ‘proof’) and the coincidence that change in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time,” said Christy.

He continued, “We [dissenting scientists] discount the possibility that everything is caused by human actions, because everything we’ve seen the climate do has happened before. Sea levels rise and fall continually. The Arctic ice cap has shrunk before. One millennium there are hippos swimming in the Thames, and a geological blink later there is an ice bridge linking Asia and North America.”

Journalists practically drooled over Al Gore during Live Earth interviews and after he won the Nobel Peace Prize. In contrast, people with alternative views barely got face time on the networks. Instead, they received insults and hostile questions.

The ugliest treatment of a skeptic was by Bill Weir on Nov. 18, 2007, “Good Morning America.” He was interviewing Democratic state representative Bill Gooch from Kentucky.

Weir peppered Gooch with hardball questions and even attacked Gooch’s motives:

• “So what do you suspect these 4,000 or so scientists from 130 countries are up to? Do you accuse them [IPCC scientists] of lying? Do you think they’re just all wrong?”

• “I should point out that your family is in business with the coal industry. You opposed a bill that would’ve stopped coal mines from exploding the tops of mountains and dumping waste into rivers there. So shouldn’t you temper on your opinion on the environment?”

Gooch made it clear that he supported an open debate, saying, “[T]here is another side of the story. I think what we have is we have the problem of global warming about to become a political problem when lawmakers in Congress, when governors in states, when even the courts start to act in ways that are gonna affect the American people in severe ways.” Gooch then mentioned the possible $6-trillion cost of one bill to deal with global warming.

“And what I wanna make sure that we do is that if we act, we have the science right,” explained Gooch.
Weir wasn’t satisfied: “But, but according to all these scientists, the more handwringing we do, the more we dither on this, the worse it’s going to get. And what if you’re wrong? What if this is, in fact, a global catastrophe? Isn’t it a moral imperative as a public servant to err on the side of planetary survival and get something done?”

Instead of letting Gooch debate with someone who disagreed, Weir filled that role himself. He came across as a passionate advocate for “something” that would supposedly aid “survival,” ignoring the cost, accuracy, and his supposed objectivity.

Journalists also called skeptics “deniers,” conjuring images of Holocaust deniers, and cast them as flat-earthers – ironically forgetting that there was once a scientific consensus that the earth was flat.

When Gore attacked
Dr. Christy [who was mentioned by Meredith Vieira] on “Today” Nov. 5, 2007, Gore specifically compared people critical of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming to people who think the Earth is flat.

“Well, he’s an outlier, he no longer belongs to the IPCC. And he is way outside the scientific consensus … There are still people who believe that the Earth is flat,” said Gore.

Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger made the same disparaging comparison on July 16, 2007 “Early Show” on CBS. After co-host Harry Smith said, “[I] asked why some people still don’t believe we have a problem.”

“Well, I think that there is [sic] still a lot of people that still think that the world is flat,” said Schwarzenegger.

NBC’s chief environmental affairs correspondent Anne Thompson said, "He is proudly a denier," of research professor and CATO senior fellow Dr. Pat Michaels.

Michaels told BMI, “She has no idea what she’s talking about. I have written and spoken repeatedly in the last 15 years that human beings are responsible for most of the warming in the past century.” What Michaels disagrees on is whether such warming will result in environmental catastrophe.

Recalling that NBC interview, Michaels continued, “The interview was great, but she pulled out one little piece and took it completely out of context. It was really, really disappointing. The interview was conducted in a very professional fashion, it was the editing that clearly did not reflect the tone and content of the overall interview.”

Thompson actually included two dissenting views in that Aug. 15, 2007, “Nightly News” but undermined both their opinions by implying they were not experts and were only making trouble: “Climate experts say whether hired guns or honest dissenters, deniers are confusing the issue and delaying solutions.”

A paltry 37 people expressing skepticism were included in six months of TV news coverage on the issue across three networks. That included all kinds of people like politicians or government employees, business representatives, celebrities, ordinary people and unidentified people. Only seven of them were scientists like Michaels.

CBS practically banned skeptics from its network, including only four and not a single scientist. The network seemed to adopt the mentality of CBS journalist Scott Pelley, who referred to global warming skeptics as “deniers” in March 2006 when he said,
“If I do an interview with [Holocaust survivor] Elie Wiesel, am I required as a journalist to find a Holocaust denier?” Recent “60 Minutes” segments from Pelley indicated he hasn’t changed his mind about balanced journalism.

Those skeptical of the environmental impact of Gore’s Live Earth concerts on July 7, 2007 also earned scorn from the media – even those like Bob Geldof who weren’t questioning the science.

“[T]here have been cynics out there who question whether the artists are practicing what they preach,” said NBC’s Lester Holt on July 7, 2007 “Today.”

ABC’s Bill Weir claimed that “all the scientists” urge immediate action to stop global warming, but it wasn’t just scientists the three networks relied on to make that case. Far from it.

There were politicians and government workers. Musicians like Madonna and Dave Matthews. Movie star Leonardo DiCaprio. And quite possibly, your next-door neighbor.

What those celebrities said had little to do with science and everything to do with advocacy. Singer KT Tunstall, a Live Earth performer, was quoted by ABC on July 7, 2007.

“I think I am an environmentalist. I mean, I don’t have a car. I live in a small apartment,” said Tunstall.
Madonna urged Live Earth attendees, "If you wanna save the planet, let me see you jumping up and down."

But it wasn’t just globe-trotting stars telling people the planet was in danger and crowding out any other perspective.

Politicians offered perhaps more substance, but certainly not much more science than the Hollywood types. In addition to fawning over Gore, networks interviewed Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R), California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (Independent), among others.

Reporters also relied on ordinary voices to reinforce the idea that global warming was already a major threat impacting our daily lives.

Only 15 percent of the people used to support global warming positions were scientists – identified as a "scientist" or with a specialty like genetics, ecology, biology or oceanography. A total of 71 scientists were included in six months of coverage. But networks turned to ordinary, unidentified people nearly a third more often than the scientists (101 to 71.)

Networks turned to ordinary people like two Live Earth concertgoers and the unidentified female “consumer” quoted by ABC “World News with Charles Gibson” on Sept. 14, 2007.

“You know, I think everybody’s got to think about it. We’ve got to change,” said a woman in a story about carbon labeling of food products.

Those quotes were used to underline the points that reporters made. One story on “Today” Nov. 6, 2007, warned that melting ice could kill off polar bears. Reporter Kerry Sanders included three unidentified people talking about polar bears – supporting his remark that “Worst-case scenario: If the Arctic ice continues to melt, in the next 100 years, the U.S. Wildlife Service says the only place you’ll find a polar bear will be at the zoo.”

Worries over Arctic melt flooded global warming coverage in the latter half of 2007, but as columnist John Tierney wrote in the Jan. 1, 2008 New York Times: “When the Arctic sea ice last year [2007] hit the lowest level ever recorded by satellites, it was big news and heralded as a sign that the whole planet was warming. When the Antarctic sea ice last year reached the highest level ever recorded by satellites, it was pretty much ignored.”

To many in the news media, global warming and its reported cause were already established fact. It was clear by the way some journalists talked about warming that they had accepted Gore’s insistence that “the debate’s over.”

Just listen to CBS’s Harry Smith: “Before we do anything else, there is, in fact, global climate change. It really affects some climates much more than others and it’s really caused some real serious problems.” Those serious problems Smith was talking about were allergies during a segment on the Aug. 7, 2007 “Early Show.”

ABC’s Sam Champion seemed to agree. Champion called the fourth U.N. IPCC report “definitive” on Sept. 5, 2007 and said he had been “investigating the alarming numbers of animals that are disappearing due to global warming” in July.

But Dan Harris went the farthest on Dec. 2, 2007 in a story about security risk and global warming. The “World News Sunday” host told viewers to “Think about this scenario: global warming contributes to a severe drought and food shortage in a third-world country. The government collapses. Warlords take over. America is forced to intervene.”

Shockingly, Harris then claimed: “It’s already happened, Somalia, 1993, with disastrous consequences.”
Harris excluded expertise on the Somali situation or any context. Human Rights Watch, a liberal international organization, gave a very different perspective at the time of the crisis back in 1992:

“Somalia has historically been subject to famines, especially in the pastoral areas of the center and north …
The current famine that threatens Mogadishu and south-central Somalia is radically different in origin and impact. Drought has played only a minor role, and the main victims are poor townspeople, farmers and rural laborers.”

The ABC correspondent didn’t include any statements about t
he way the war was thought to have contributed to the famine.

Journalists weren’t the only ones claiming that global warming was a fact, though. But the people journalists chose to interview also included Gore saying the “debate’s over” and didn’t dispute Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s incorrect statement that there was “zero dissent” on the issue, or Leonardo DiCaprio’s assertion of a “90-percent consensus.”

“Consensus” was rarely questioned by reporters at all, and ABC’s Bill Weir even used the concept of “these 4,000 or so scientists” to hammer at one person expressing a different view.

The media did a terrible job of actually explaining what the IPCC was. Atmospheric scientist Dr. John Christy told
Earth & Sky Web site that the “IPCC would do well to define what each participant truly contributes to each product (i.e. Summary for Policy Makers vs. Full Text) so that the world would know that thousands of scientists never reached a ‘consensus’ on anything.”

“When the Full Text is developed, ‘consensus’ is a concept held by the chapters’ Lead Authors who often ignore or contradict positions offered by the Contributing Authors and Reviewers,” explained Christy.

David Henderson, a former chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), wrote a detailed criticism of the IPCC in the Oct. 11, 2007 Wall Street Journal. He called the process “flawed” and biased because “the Panel members and those who appoint them are of course identified with the policies of their governments And virtually all governments are formally committed … to the ‘stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere’.”

Not only did the networks censor skepticism from stories, but the cost of proposed solutions, small or large, was routinely omitted.

BMI found that 90 percent of the stories didn’t mention cost at all, even though the networks urged immediate action to stop the “climate crisis.”

“NBC Nightly News” ignored cost in a Dec. 18, 2007 report about the recent energy bill passed by Congress.

“What America drives could change dramatically under the energy bill,” said Anne Thompson before quoting David Hamilton of the left-wing environmentalist group Sierra Club.

Hamilton lauded parts of the bill during the “Fueling Change” segment: “This bill means that we will get all the same safety, all the same performance that we’ve ever gotten from our cars, but we’ll get it with more miles to the gallon.”

Thompson and Hamilton both ignored the obvious cost to auto manufacturers of designing vehicles that will be able to meet the new fuel efficiency requirements. Likely, those costs will be passed on to the consumer in the form of higher vehicles prices.

Other plans to curb greenhouse-gas emissions could cost trillions of dollars. One estimate by business consulting firm CRA International put a
$4-trillion to $6-trillion price tag on the Lieberman-Warner bill, which would mandate scaling back emissions levels to 1990s levels by 2020. That would cost each American man, woman and child $494 a year.

Network reporters also didn’t focus on how much is already being spent. As the Business & Media Institute reported in its “Fire and Ice” study, more than 99.5 percent of American climate change funding comes from the government – taxpayers – and we spend $4 billion per year on climate change research.

The Kyoto treaty that was never ratified by the U.S. carried an estimated cost of $440 billion per year for America. The Senate voted 95 to 0 to reject it.

BMI examined all ABC, CBS and NBC news transcripts that included the terms “global warming” or “climate change” during the most recent six month period – from July 1, 2007, to Dec. 31, 2007. Only stories mentioning those terms were included in the study.

The stories were split into two categories: stories and casual mentions. Casual mentions encompassed anchor briefs shorter than 50 words and longer stories that only mentioned global warming or climate change incidentally (the story was not about that issue).

“Dissent,” for the purpose of this study, included any uncertainty ["I don’t know"], alternative opinions about warming, and caution against making climate change policy decisions without more information. It also included criticism of “solutions” to global warming and “awareness” campaigns like Live Earth ¬– even when the critic wasn’t disagreeing with manmade climate change, but just the usefulness of worldwide rock concerts.

People quoted in a story that supported climate change claims were placed in the proponent category because their comments were used by the network to support the manmade global warming viewpoint. There was one exception. In one story, scientist Bill Nye presented both positions on the issue in a balanced manner. He was counted as neutral in that story.

• Report the issue objectively: Reporters have a professional responsibility to remain objective and avoid inserting their own opinions into their reports. Many in the media have sorely missed that mark when it comes to reporting on global warming and climate change.

• Include skeptics: The Society of Professional Journalists Code of Ethics states journalists should
“Support the open exchange of views, even views they find repugnant.” It is the media’s job to inform the public, not persuade them by leaving out alternative viewpoints. Particularly, networks should give skeptical scientists the opportunity to share their findings – just like they include scientists who say manmade global warming is negatively impacting the planet.

• Show Me the Money: If the U.S. government passes legislation to address global warming, it will carry a cost and American taxpayers have a right to know what it would be. The media need to do a much better job by asking about or including cost estimates of climate change “solutions.”

Fire and Ice: Journalists have warned of climate change for 100 years, but can’t decide ‘weather’ we face an ice age or warming.

Climate of Bias: BMI’s section dedicated to issues of climate change in the media

Skeptical Scientists: A list of hundreds of scientists who question the science surrounding global warming alarmism