Can China Take Taiwan? Analysis

This is an excellent review.  I already knew that such an invasion was a tall order.  After that it gets down to details.  Actual landing targets are few as in perhaps three.  Thus land defence can be focused.

The big problem for defense is that the the Taiwan strait is shallow making submarine operations too risky.  Yet the crossing itself is a free fire zone for defensive missles and  ultimately artilary.

Much more  important is that the weather season is September through October.  Thus we have the arrival this summer of three USN Carrier groups along with all known allies in the South China Sea.  Any effort by China to gain air supperiority will face not just the Taiwanese airforce with around four hundred warcraft but also over 200 naval fighters as well not easily exposed to bombing attacks hte carriers.

Yet China can field three thousand aircraft so on paper they could grab air superiority.  The carrier's stand off ability makes that a poor trade and additional carriers would soon arrive as well.  All this provides time for land forces to pour into Taiwan from Japan, South Korea, Phillipines,Indonesia, Vietnam and Australia as well.  After all the sea lanes will be open and aircargo will be possible.  All these nations have vital interests in seeing Chinese agression off.

China could possibly achieve local but opposed air superiority over their potential landing zones.

None of this is explicitly stated by the potential belligerants.

What ends the whole scenario though would be the transition of a million man Indian overseas army to Taiwan fully equipped to fight a modern war.  This happens to be diable as the entire force would be positioned in bases well away from local population but readily in position in order to move up to risk areas or to simply wait for an actual landing to take place.

That is the geo political strategic card available to India that works for them without breaking the bank as well.  It also nicely sidesteps the whole strategic geography thing with China while attaching potent allies as well..

This is why CCP trouble making is so stupid.  Folks get ideas.

Can China Take Taiwan? Analysis





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