Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/rain+terror/3203733/story.html#ixzz0s2upkzxS
Monday, June 28, 2010
Kim's Rain of Terror
This article in
’s National Post is well worth reading, lest anyone wishes to think that the military option actually exists. Canada
It has also been long obvious that
China has as much influence in as we have. North Korea
has operational Atomic bombs, then the only way to deploy them is at the end of tunnels in the DMZ. These can be miles long to reach critical concentrations. They have had decades to drive these tunnels and it would have been deep and long to get well out of range of listening devices. Digging would end once the bomb was placed. North Korea
It is actually feasible to drive a tunnel all the way to
over the last fifty years. We actually have an old mine tunnel that length just north of Seoul that actually linked the Britannia mine to Indian Arm. I have actually seen the mine exit and there is no doubt that it was driven from the other side. You have to be looking for it. Vancouver
The only problem is hiding the spoil. So it is also possible that nothing so ambitious was ever attempted. It is just that they could have.
This military stalemate will end when
masses a million men on the border and forces the North Koreans to build defenses and put in manpower. China
The economic war is long lost and this summer will see another wave of starvation in the countryside again. The state has long proven to be able to control the resultant discontent. Starving people are unable to actually revolt.
Kim's rain of terror
Peter Goodspeed, National Post · Saturday, Jun. 26, 2010
The opening battle of the next Korean War will be fought on the streets of
, the world's 10th-largest city. Seoul
Just an hour's drive south of the lush green wilderness of the Demilitarized Zone, where snow-white Siberian cranes soar among hazy hills and a million soldiers glare at each other across the world's most heavily fortified frontier, Seoul is targeted in the crosshairs of 13,000 North Korean field artillery guns and multiple rocket launchers.
A symbol of South Korea's success, with ancient palaces and sleek new skyscrapers, it is one of Asia's most dynamic cities and its metropolitan area contains 22 million people or 45% of South Korea's population.
Yet, after 57 years of an uneasy armistice, if another war breaks out on the Korean peninsula,
will be obliterated and millions will die. Seoul
After participating in a computer-simulated Korean war game in 2003, three years before
North Korea exploded its first nuclear bomb, Kurt Campbell, the current assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, described the early days of any new Korean conflict as "a horrific symphony of death." U.S.
"We will win the war," he said. "But it will not be an easy war to fight."
Ever since the first Korean War ground to a halt in 1953, with a cease-fire instead of a peace treaty, soldiers on both sides of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) have been planning and preparing to resume fighting. As a result, decades of war games, military exercises and analytical reports have produced a nightmarish picture of what a Second Korean War will look like.
During a 1994 diplomatic crisis over
North Korea's nuclear ambitions, South Korea's Defence Minister, Lee Yang Ho, said one computer simulation of a potential war projected a million dead, including thousands of troops. U.S.
The Pentagon estimates that without warning and without moving a single artillery piece,
North Korea can now fire 500,000 artillery rounds an hour into for several hours without interruption. South Korea
Almost all its artillery is protected in hardened bunkers dug into the mountains along the DMZ, which are nearly impossible to destroy, even with sophisticated, satellite-guided precision weapons.
A North Korean attack could include chemical and biological weapons as well as high explosives.
South Korea's Ministry of Defence estimated possessed 2,500 to 5,000 metric tonnes of biological agents, including anthrax, smallpox, cholera and plague. North Korea
South Korean civil defence planners predict 50 North Korean missiles carrying nerve gas could kill up to 38% of
's inhabitants--more than eight million people. Seoul
Since October 2006,
has had nuclear weapons. It is rushing to perfect its long-range missile technology so it can threaten the continental North Korea United States in the hope of deterring or defeating a possible attack. U.S.
Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defence Information, estimates, "A single 15-kiloton plutonium bomb exploded by North Korea about one quarter mile above Seoul would almost certainly kill 150,000, severely injure another 80,000 and inflict significant injuries to another 200,000 city-dwellers."
North Korean society is designed for war and little else. One of the world's poorest nations, with only 22 million people, it has the world's third-largest army and fifth-biggest armed forces. It spends about 30% of its gross domestic product on defence and 40% of its people belong to a military or paramilitary formation.
North Korea did decide to attack or felt provoked or threatened by or South Korean actions, its military plans call for a blitzkrieg-style assault across the DMZ. U.S.
"A surprise attack on
is possible at any time without a prior redeployment of its units. A war could explode after a warning of only a few hours or days, not weeks," said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org,a research group devoted to defence issues. South Korea North Korea would first unleash a devastating barrage of artillery and rocket fire on and South Korean positions. Then its troops would pour across the border in a combined infantry and armoured assault. Because of the peninsula's mountainous terrain, this could duplicate the original Korean War, with armies advancing down the Kaesong-Munsan, Kumwa, and Chorwon corridors. U.S.
An alternative assault, suggested by John Collins, a retired
U.S. Army colonel and former military specialist with the U.S. Congressional Research Service, could see explode a nuclear weapon in one of its undiscovered invasion tunnels beneath the DMZ. North Korea
"The basic goal of a North Korean southern offensive is destruction of allied defences either before South Korea can fully mobilize its national power or before significant reinforcement from the United States can arrive and be deployed," explained Mr. Pike.
In any invasion,
North Korea will have three strategic objectives: to penetrate defences along the DMZ; to seize and hold Seoul; and to control the peninsula before the can rush in reinforcements. United States
As part of an assault, it will launch ballistic missile attacks against high-level military command posts, seaports, air bases and communications and transportation centres.
Its army of 120,000 special force commandoes, the largest in the world, would also slip behind enemy lines to assassinate political leaders and sabotage sensitive targets.
Some analysts have speculated
might preface an invasion by releasing massive walls of water from its dams above the DMZ. North Korea
According to GlobalSecurity.org,troops in South Korea will need to withstand a North Korean assault for up to 15 days, then hold the invaders to a standstill for another two to three weeks more before reinforcements arrive and mobilize for a counterattack that is designed to destroy North Korea's military and its dictatorship. A U. S.-South Korean counterattack will rely on a "shock and awe" use of air power never seen before in history.
North Korea's geriatric air defences will be overwhelmed in a air assault that involves stealth aircraft with precision-guided bombs, tactical aircraft from air craft carrier battle groups and a storm of cruise missiles launched from submarines and surface fleets off the coast. U.S.
"North Korea is now probably the most watched country in the world by U.S. surveillance assets," said Stephen Baker, a retired U.S. rear admiral who studied Korean war scenarios for Washington's Center for Defence Information.
Every North Korean gun and tank emplacement along the DMZ, ammunition and supply depot, bridge and crossroad, resupply and reinforcement route, air field, naval facility, commando base, headquarters, command post, munitions factory, power station and important government building is on a target list.
"This strike would be devastatingly lethal and very intense," Adm. Baker said. "The goal would be to very quickly take away
's will to fight and to stagger and isolate remaining [North Korean] formations, rendering them incapable of resisting." North Korea
James Woolsey, a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Thomas McInerney, a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant general, recently estimated the
United States could stage 4,000 attack sorties a day against . That compares to just 800 sorties a day at the height of the "shock and awe" phase of the North Korea War. Iraq
In the long run, no one really expects
to survive an all-out U.S.-led assault. It doesn't have the fuel, spare parts or air power to fight a sustained war. Its tanks and aircraft are obsolete. North Korea
In contrast to the 1950 invasion,
, which just a few years ago was facing mass starvation, will be attacking prepared defences, manned by troops that have superior equipment and training. North Korea
The military imbalance between the two sides is so great qualitatively that U.S. and South Korean forces might be tempted to launch a pre-emptive attack on North Korea in the face of an extreme provocation, such as preparations for a nuclear attack or the sale of nuclear technology to terrorists.
A pre-emptive attack might promise to destroy or capture
North Korea's weapons of mass destruction and could remove some of its ability to destroy . However, it is unlikely, simply because the risks to Seoul are still too huge. South Korea
U.S. battle plans for Korea call for rushing up to 750,000 reinforcements to the peninsula for a counterattack. Two brigades' worth of equipment and ammunition is already stored in and near U.S. Korea so the U.S. Army and Marines can rapidly airlift troops into . South Korea
South Korean ground forces, with the support of the 28,000
U.S. troops permanently based in , will be obliged to stop an initial North Korean assault. But South Korea reinforcements of two full army division expect to launch a massive counteroffensive within two weeks of an outbreak of hostilities. U.S.
Part of that counterattack could include having
U.S. Marines stage landings on both coasts of North Korea, seeking to cut the country in half at its narrow waist by capturing the east coast port of Wonsan and the North Korean capital . Pyongyang
"There is no doubt on the outcome," said Mr. Woolsey. "We judge that the
U.S. and South Korea could defeat decisively in 30 to 60 days." North Korea
After 60 years of pugnacious provocations, sustained tensions between North and
are probable and further military skirmishes are likely. But there is still a stabilizing sense of deterrence, said David Kang, director of Korean studies at the South Korea . University of Southern California
"Although the South Korean and
militaries would clearly triumph in a war, the casualties and destruction on both sides of the peninsula would be horrific," he said. U.S.
In the end, no one knows anything for certain.
Christopher Griffin, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warned, "All scenario-based planning exercises carry an inherent flaw: No matter how imaginatively we guess the future, time always will take us by surprise.
"Even if the
U.S. has developed hundreds of scenarios while war-gaming a North Korean regime collapse, for example, none of them can predict the chaos that will surround the eventual end of 's communist regime." North Korea
Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/rain+terror/3203733/story.html#ixzz0s2upkzxS