Monday, January 11, 2010

China's Negatives






When all the commentary is gushingly optimistic, it is time to review the recognized negatives.  This writer takes a shot at it.  As usual, there is plenty to agree with and also plenty to question.

 

We are certainly a long way from having convincing facts and statistics to deal with.  We must use rather rough proxies to make sense out of the situation.

 

The economy is clearly growing, and has grown on the phased urbanization of China’s youth.  Their needs have stimulated all other sectors.  The problem today is that process is actually complete.  This has been hidden by the recent slowdown, but is still there.  Growth must now come from productivity gains and a rapid expansion of the service industry that provides jobs for secondary workers.

 

Realistically, I now expect growth to taper of to around four percent over the next decade.  This is still pretty substantial and will provide internal depth to the economy.  They have also now learned that they can no longer solely rely on tapping the export market.  Their first task is to convert that capacity over to internal consumption.

 

China is not going to create a credit bust for a long time yet.  Remember that centuries ago China invented fiat currency and also all the possible related fiascos that that can engender.  No one needs to tell them how easy it is to destroy the currency and that to do so is treason.

 

I myself have always tried to ignore politicians and governments and instead focused on the people.  Can they get the job done?  In China’s case, they certainly can.  At worst they bribe a local official to get their way.  Their confidence stems from believing that a market of 1.3 billion is insatiable.  Until they are proven wrong and everyone is as rich as an average American, they will not let up.

 

This is why the economy has grown hell bent for leather for a solid thirty years and why they are shaking off the US credit hangover so quickly.

 

The worries over the inappropriateness of the educational system are badly misplaced.  The task of the school system is to ensure that every twelve year old can read, write and do basic arithmetic.  It is boring and requires drill.  After that it simply does not matter much.

 

The talented individual will mostly self educate himself.  The rest will grumble and ultimately find a way to fit into the adult world.  All the Marxism in the world will not alter that.  Governments forget that the recipients of an education are thinking people who will reject contradiction sooner than leter.

 

China's Economy To Reach $123 Trillion?

 

Gordon G. Chang, 01.08.10, 12:01 AM EST

A Nobel Prize winner seems to think so. Here's why he's wrong.

China will have a $123 trillion economy by 2040. By then, the country will account for 40% of the world’s gross domestic product and be “superrich.” The American economy, by way of contrast, will produce only 14% of global output. And Europe? The E.U. will claim just 5%. So says Robert Fogel, and he has a Nobel prize in economics to prove he knows a lot.

The famous University of Chicago professor believes analysts “fail to fully credit the forces at work behind China’s recent success or understand how those trends will shape the future.” Far from overestimating China’s growth, Beijing is underestimating it.

Why will the Chinese economy expand so fast? There are many factors at work, Fogel says. First, China has made an “enormous” bet on education, substantially increasing school enrollments following a campaign initiated in 1998 by then-supremo Jiang Zemin. “I forecast that China will be able to increase its high school enrollment rate to the neighborhood of 100% and the college rate to about 50% over the next generation,” Fogel writes, apparently channeling New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who also is euphoric about China’s educational system.

The second underestimated factor is the now-undeveloped rural sector, which last year was home to 55% of China’s people. Urbanization, which boosts economic output by three percentage points a year, is the key here.

Third, we do not fully take into account the fast-growing service sector. Small firms hide their successes from the government, and Beijing’s statisticians do not capture “improvements in the quality of output.”

Fourth, Fogel thinks highly of China’s one-party state. “The Chinese political system is likely not what you think,” he writes. There is a back-and-forth between government officials and technocrats. Fogel states: “Chinese economic planning has become much more responsive and open to new ideas than it was in the past.” He cities his participation in something called the Chinese Economists Society as evidence of reformed one-party state politics.

Finally, Fogel places much hope in China’s “long-repressed consumerist tendencies.” Beijing, he believes, is responding to what people want: “Indeed, the government has made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China’s economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers’ appetite for acquisitions.”

Is Fogel’s sunny view correct? First, he neglects to mention that China’s educational system, despite all the money it receives, remains inappropriate for a modern society. Hu Jintao, China’s leader since 2002, has been reinvigorating Marxist education and reinforcing orthodoxy. That’s great, but only if you want to know what Engels or Mao thought about the value of labor or why the Communist Party must maintain a monopoly on power. Fogel should also have mentioned something about the ingrained corruption, pervasive plagiarism and creativity-stifling curricula that are the hallmarks of Chinese schooling. There’s no question the county’s educational system has made some progress in the last 10 years, but the surprisingly meager advance is hardly a reason to think the Chinese will dominate the global economy in a generation.

Second, Fogel is right to note that migration of labor to cities has been the engine of Chinese growth, but that process has stalled in the global economic downturn. Yes, China still has cheap labor, but not mentioned in the article are the generally accepted projections that the labor force will level off in a half decade and then shrink. Moreover, he neglects to note that wage rates will increase as China becomes more prosperous. Already, industry is moving to other counties, such as neighboring Vietnam, to take advantage of even cheaper labor. So urbanization in the next 30 years cannot continue at nearly the same pace as it has in the last 30.

Third, it’s true that Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics does not fully account for the output of the fast-growing service sector. That’s why its estimate of 13.0% growth for 2007 is low by about two percentage points. Then, small businesses were the most vibrant part of the economy. Today, the failure to properly assess the output of small business is resulting in anoverestimation of GDP because these enterprises, which tend to be more dependent on exports, are suffering more than the larger ones. Fogel, a recognized genius, should have figured this out.

Fourth, Fogel’s views of the political system are questionable. He neglects to say that Hu Jintao has presided over a seven-year crackdown and that the Communist Party tolerates less criticism today than it did two decades ago. Economic reform has stalled because China has progressed about as far as it can within its existing political framework.

Further economic reform would threaten the power of the Communist Party, so the Party will not sponsor much more change.

A true market economy, for example, requires the rule of law, which in turn requires “institutional curbs” on government. Because these two limitations on power are incompatible with the Party’s ambitions to continue to dominate society, China cannot make much progress toward them, at least as long as the Communist Party is around. I don’t care how many conferences Fogel gets invited to. China’s economy has just about reached the limit of what is possible.

Fifth, Fogel apparently knows almost nothing about Chinese consumer spending. Historically, consumption contributed about 60% of China’s economic output. Today, it accounts for about 30%--and that number is going lower. Why? Beijing’s stimulus spending, about $1.1 trillion last year, is devoted almost entirely to building infrastructure and industrial capacity. As a result, the role of consumer spending is decreasing. Moreover, Beijing’s export-promotion policies, like holding down the value of the renminbi, are also anti-consumer. Although Chinese leaders talk about increasing consumption, on balance they are doing their best to undermine it.

Fogel lists all of China’s problems in this 2,400-word article in exactly one single sentence (although he did find room for three paragraphs on the infertility of European women).

I smell economist malpractice, and Fogel should be relieved that the Swedes don’t take back Nobel prizes.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Super Nova Fizzle







Having a somewhat vague understanding of the mathematics of the so called Black Hole and having monitored the development of particle physics for over forty years, it is somewhat bemusing to see that they are unable to generate a super nova in their modeling.  This is a somewhat fundamental test of theory if one is modeling gravitational collapse.

The first elementary flaw is that mathematical continuity fails in both the direction of collapse but also far sooner on the orthogonal plane.  Yet the work done is in one dimension only, naturally assuming perfect orthogonal continuity.

I also am able to make the unusual conjecture that at the event horizon and interior to the event horizon, the particles degenerate into photonic energy and in the process carry off most if not all of the related gravitational potential. You are welcome to prove this conjecture wrong.

Thus a super nova is a photon blast whose photons then mostly reform back into particles a long ways away as local curvature drops off.

I could be wrong of course.  It is just that the longer a famous old theory lies around the less it appears to be doubted.  Forty years ago, everyone avoided black holes because they all knew it was the result of mathematical perfection (and sole solvability) and thus had little likelihood of appearing in nature quite like the math shows.  It did show where our theory broke down decisively.

As usual their modeling is declaring that modern theory is conforming to GIGO. 

Why Won't the Supernova Explode?




January 7, 2010: A massive old star is about to die a spectacular death. As its nuclear fuel runs out, it begins to collapse under its own tremendous weight. The crushing pressure inside the star skyrockets, triggering new nuclear reactions, setting the stage for a terrifying blast. And then... nothing happens.


At least that's what supercomputers have been telling astrophysicists for decades. Many of the best computer models of supernova explosions fail to produce an explosion. Instead, according to the simulations, gravity wins the day and the star simply collapses.


Clearly, physicists are missing something.


"We don't really understand how supernovas of massive stars work yet," says Fiona Harrison, an astrophysicist at the California Institute of Technology. The death of relatively small stars is better understood, but for larger stars — those with more than about 9 times the mass of our sun — the physics just doesn't add up.




Right: A supercomputer model of a rapidly-spinning, core-collapse supernova. NuSTAR observations of actual supernova remnants will provide vital data for such models and help explain how massive supernovas manage to explode. Credit: Fiona Harrison/Caltech. [larger image]


Something must be helping the outward push of radiation and other pressures overcome the inward squeeze of gravity. To figure out what that "something" is, scientists need to examine the inside of a real supernova while it's exploding — not a particularly easy thing to do!

But that's exactly what Harrison intends to do with a new space telescope she and her colleagues are developing called the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array, or NuSTAR.

After it launches in 2011 aboard a Pegasus rocket, NuSTAR will give scientists an unprecedented view of high-energy X-rays coming from supernova remnants, black holes, blazars, and other extreme cosmic phenomena. NuSTAR will be the first space telescope that can actually focus these high-energy X-rays, producing images roughly 100 times sharper than those possible with previous telescopes.

Using NuSTAR, scientists will look for clues to conditions inside the exploding star etched into the pattern of elements spread throughout the nebula that remains after the star explodes.




Above: An artist's concept of NuSTAR. Focusing X-ray optics require long focal lengths--hence the 10-meter deployable mast, which is extended after launch. [larger image] [more]


"You don't get the opportunity to watch these explosions very often, ones that are close enough to study in detail," Harrison says. "What we can do is study the remnants. The composition and distribution of the material in the remnants tells you a lot about the explosion."


One element in particular is of keen interest: titanium-44. Creating this isotope of titanium through nuclear fusion requires a certain combination of energy, pressure, and raw materials. Inside the collapsing star, that combination occurs at a depth that's very special. Everything below that depth will succumb to gravity and collapse inward to form a black hole. Everything above that depth will be blown outward in the explosion. Titanium-44 is created right at the cusp.


So the pattern of how titanium-44 is spread throughout a nebula can reveal a lot about what happened at that crucial threshold during the explosion. And with that information, scientists might be able to figure out what's wrong with their computer simulations.


http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2010/images/nustar/cassA6_cxo_c1_med.jpg


Right: NuSTAR will map the distribution of titanium-44 in supernova remnants like this one, Cassiopeia A, to search for evidence of asymmetries. Image Credit: Chandra X-ray Observatory. [more]


Some scientists believe the computer models are too symmetrical. Until recently, even with powerful supercomputers, scientists have only been able to simulate a one-dimensional sliver of the star. Scientists just assume that the rest of the star behaves similarly, making the simulated implosion the same in all radial directions.


But what if that assumption is wrong?


"Asymmetries could be the key," Harrison says. In an asymmetrical collapse, outward forces could break through in some places even if the crush of gravity is overpowering in others. Indeed, more recent, two-dimensional simulations suggest that asymmetries could help solve the mystery of the "non-exploding supernova."


If NuSTAR finds that titanium-44 is spread unevenly, it would be evidence that the explosions themselves were also asymmetrical, Harrison explains.


To detect titanium-44, NuSTAR needs to be able to focus very high energy X-rays. Titanium-44 is radioactive, and when it decays it releases gamma rays with an energy of 68 kilo-electronvolts (keV). Existing X-ray space telescopes, such as NASA's Chandra X-Ray Observatory, can only focus X-rays up to about 15 keV.


Normal lenses can't focus X-rays at all. Glass bends X-rays only a miniscule amount, so for a glass lens to bend X-rays enough to focus them, it would have to be so thick that it would adsorb the X-rays instead.


X-ray telescopes use an entirely different kind of lens. Called a Wolter-I optic, it consists of many cylindrical shells, each one slightly smaller and placed inside the last. The result looks a bit like the layers of a cylindrical onion (if there were such a thing), with small gaps between the layers.




Above: The x-ray "light path" of the EPIC camera of the XMM-Newton satellite, a Wolter-I design similar to that used by NuSTAR. Credit: ESA/ESTEC. [larger image] [more]


Incoming X-rays pass between these layers, which guide the X-rays to the focal surface


It's not a lens, strictly speaking, because the X-rays reflect off the surfaces instead of passing through them the way light passes through a glass lens. But the end result is the same.


NuSTAR's Wolter-I optic has a special atomic-precision coating that enables its layers to reflect X-rays with energies as high as 79 keV. Harrison and her colleagues have spent years perfecting the delicate manufacturing techniques for making these high-precision layers. Together with a new sensor that can tolerate these high energies, these finely crafted layers are what enable NuSTAR to image these relatively unexplored, high-intensity X-rays.


And the discoveries won't stop with supernovas. High-energy X-rays are emitted by many of the universe's most extreme phenomena, including supermassive black holes and blazars. NuSTAR will give us a new window on the universe at its most extreme.


Author: Patrick Barry | Editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

Terrorist Interception






This article is a bit over on the paranoid school of political interpretation, making it a bit difficult to swallow.  His thesis is that the recent attempted bombing in Detroit was possibly a CIA plot.  However, that is not important.  What is important is that several years of effort has failed a very simple stress test of security measures.

The only plausible explanation is that the creation of a new agency has merely created a turf war that has failed to integrate resources at all.

The solution is very straight forward.  It is the same as the security clearance system used by the military and US government agencies to begin with.

It all begins with the opening of a file on a name.  Today this can be internet driven even for global access by anyone with a proper level of clearance.  It is equivalent to the clearance provided to anyone whose duties require him to read a training manual.

My point is that any report or recognition of risky behavior would land in this report web site.  Anyone accessing it would be trained and also know that the data is not vetted.  However, this allows a dynamic process.

The fact that such a file exists and already has a clearance issue, allows immediate vetting by a modestly trained person in authority.

Obviously if a person has merely been a member of a mosque in which Mullah Whackbar gave a speech and that is the only intelligence in the file, he will be quickly cleared possibly after a couple of questions.  Yet a file with a number of such individually innocuous entries becomes more touchy.

My point here is that all intelligence on an individual must land in an online file accessible to the individual on the ground who must make the judgment call. That person should also have the authority to transfer the file to a supervisor.  This should automatically make the file a number two classification.

Such a system will tend to be self correcting.  After all, an innocent person is going to be filling that same file with explanations.  More importantly it will reach a trigger point in which the person is subjected to a full clearance procedure to discover his true reliability ending his ordeal.

A working system that is perfect seems unimaginable, but normal intelligence gathering combined with this type of simple data management has worked well for years on other problem areas.  The problem for commercial targets is that intelligence gathering is a big problem.

Let me put this another way.  Phone the US customs service and make an anonymous report that you will be smuggling some valuable contraband such as diamonds through the airport from time to time.  Then try going through the airport customs.

It should be obvious that this can all be made to work very well with a fraction of the money already squandered.  Of course, there may be some incredibly good and valid reason that I am wrong, and I of course lack the security clearance to be told.  Oh well.





Who Would Benefit Politically from a Terrorist Incident on American Soil? The Strange Case of Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab

By Tom Burghardt



Despite some $40 billion dollars spent by the American people on airline security since 2001, allegedly to thwart attacks on the Heimat, the botched attempt by Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab to bring down Northwest Airlines Flight 253 over Detroit on Christmas Day was foiled, not by a bloated counterterrorist bureaucracy, but by the passengers themselves.

Talk about validating that old Wobbly slogan: Direct action gets the goods!

And yet, the closer one looks at the available evidence surrounding the strange case of Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, the more sinister alleged "intelligence failures" become. As this story unfolds it is becoming abundantly clear that U.S. security officials had far more information on the would-be lap bomber than we've been told.

The Observer revealed January 3 that the British secret state had Abdulmutallab on their radar for several years and that he had become "politically involved" with "extremist networks" while a student at University College London, where he served as president of the Islamic Society.

Examining "e-mail and text traffic," security officers claim to have belatedly discovered that "he has been in contact with jihadists from across the world since 2007."

Indeed, The Sunday Times disclosed that the 23-year-old terrorism suspect was "'reaching out' to extremists whom MI5 had under surveillance." The officials said that Abdulmutallab was "'starting out on a journey' in Britain" that culminated with last week's attempt to destroy Flight 253.

It is claimed by unnamed "British officials" that "none of this information was passed" to their American counterparts; on the face of it, this appears to be a rank mendacity.

The Sunday Times further reported that security officials have "now passed a file" to American counterterrorism officers that show "his repeated contacts with MI5 targets who were subject to phone taps,

email intercepts and other forms of surveillance."

None of this should surprise anyone, however. In light of multiple prior warnings which preceded past terrorist atrocities, the selective leaking of information to the British media in its own way, buttresses the official story that the near-tragedy aboard Flight 253 was simply the result of ubiquitous "intelligence failures."

But as we have seen with Mohamed Atta, Richard Reid and Mohammad Sidique Khan, Abdul Mutallab's "journey" was one undertaken by many before, often with a wink-and-a-nod by British and American security officials when it served the geostrategic ambitions of their political masters.

As security researcher and analyst Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed wrote in the New Internationalist (October 2009): "Islamist terrorism cannot be understood without acknowledging the extent to which its networks are being used by Western military intelligence services, both to control strategic energy resources and to counter their geopolitical rivals. Even now, nearly a decade after 9/11, covert sponsorship of al-Qaeda networks continues."

Ahmed's findings track closely with those of Michel Chossudovsky, Peter Dale Scott and Richard Labévière, who have painstakingly documented that the complex of jihadi groups known as al-Qaeda have enjoyed the closest ties with Western intelligence agencies stretching back decades.

That intelligence officers, including those at the highest levels of the secret state's security apparat, did nothing to hamper an alleged al-Qaeda operative from getting on that plane--in a chilling echo of the 9/11 attacks--calls into question the thin tissue of lies outlined in the official narrative.

An Intelligence "Failure," or a Wild "Success" for Security Corporations?

Charged December 26 with attempting to blow up a U.S. airliner, according to The Washington PostAbdulmutallab "was listed in a U.S. terrorism database."

The Post reported that the suspect's name "was added in November to the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment, or TIDE." It is further described as a "catch-all list" which "contains about 550,000 individuals" and is maintained by "the Office of the Director of National Intelligence at the National Counterterrorism Center."

However, The New York Times revealed December 31 that the "National Security Agency four months ago intercepted conversations among leaders of Al Qaeda in Yemen discussing a plot to use a Nigerian man for a coming terrorist attack."

Times' reporters Mark Mazzetti and Eric Lipton, citing unnamed
"government officials," disclosed that "the electronic intercepts were translated and disseminated across classified computer networks" months before Abdulmutallab boarded Flight 253 in Amsterdam.

But when the NSA intercepts landed at the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), overseen by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), analysts there "did not synthesize the eavesdropping intelligence with information gathered in November" when Abdulmutallab's father provided the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria crucial information on his son's involvement with the Afghan-Arab database of disposable Western intelligence assets, also known as al-Qaeda.

Seeking comment from NCTC proved to be a daunting task. As the Times delicately put it, "officials at the counterterrorist center ... maintained a stoic silence on Wednesday, noting that the review ordered by President Obama was still under way."

Despite revelations in the British press, the White House maintains that U.S. intelligence agencies "did not miss a 'smoking gun'" that could have prevented the botched attack, the Associated Press reported January 3.

White House aide John Brennan, citing "lapses" and "errors" in sharing intelligence said, "There was no single piece of intelligence that said, 'this guy is going to get on a plane.'"
As we will soon see, Mr. Brennan has every reason to hide behind such mendacities.

Investigative journalist Tim Shorrock, the author of the essential book Spies For Hire, reported in CorpWatch, that NCTC is an outsourced counterterrorist agency chock-a-block with security contractors in the heavily-leveraged homeland security market.

Indeed, The Analysis Corporation (TAC), a wholly-owned subsidiary of defense and intelligence contractor Global Strategies Group/North America, "specializes in providing counterterrorism analysis and watchlists to U.S. government agencies."

"It is best known" according to Shorrock, "for its connection to John O. Brennan, its former CEO, a 35-year veteran of the CIA and currently President Obama's chief counterterrorism adviser. Brennan, the first director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), retired from government in November 2005 and immediately joined TAC."

Shorrock reports that "much of TAC's business is with the NCTC itself. In fact, the NCTC is one of the company's largest customers, and TAC provides counterterrorism (CT) support to 'most of the agencies within the intelligence community,' according to a company press release. One of its biggest customers is the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which manages the NCTC."

"During the 1990s" Shorrock relates, "TAC developed the U.S.


government's first terrorist database, 'Tipoff,' on behalf of the State Department."

Shorrock chronicles how "the database was initially conceived as a tool to help U.S. consular officials and customs inspectors determine if foreigners trying to enter the United States were known or suspected terrorists."

In the wake of the 9/11 attacks and subsequent reorganization of the U.S. security bureaucracy, the investigative journalist tells us that "in 2003, management of the database--which received information collected by a large number of agencies including the CIA, NSA, and FBI--was transferred to the CIA's Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC) and, later, to the National Counterterrorism Center."

"In 2005" Shorrock discloses, "Tipoff was expanded and renamed the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment, or TIDE, and fingerprint and facial recognition software was added to help identify suspects as they crossed U.S. borders."

Despite the utter worthlessness of a bloated database containing more than 1.3 million names according to the American Civil Liberties Union, and not the grossly undercounted figure of 550,000 cited by corporate media, TIDE has been a boon for TAC.

"In the five years after 9/11" Shorrock reveals, "its income quintupled, from less than $5 million in 2001 to $24 million in 2006. In 2006, TAC increased its visibility in the intelligence community by creating a 'senior advisory board' that included three heavy hitters from the CIA: former Director George J. Tenet, former Chief Information Officer Alan Wade, and former senior analyst John P. Young."

And what have the American people gained from inflating the corporatist bottom line? In light of the Christmas Day bombing attempt, not much.

As investigative journalists Susan and Joseph Trento revealed in their overlooked but highly-disturbing 2006 book, Unsafe At Any Altitude, most of the 9/11 hijackers, including Mohamed Atta, Hani Hanjour, Khalid al-Mihdhar and Majed Moqed "were flagged by CAPPS (Computer-Assisted Passenger Prescreening System)."

But because of CIA and FBI monkey-business that rendered watch-list information useless to stop suspected terrorists from boarding an airliner, "the only thing that was done as a result was that the baggage of several members of the Al Qaeda team was held on the ground until the cabin crew confirmed they had boarded as passengers."

And when you consider that Abdulmutallab didn't even have any baggage to check, alleged security "lapses" are even more glaring.

According to the Trentos, "the FBI, CIA, NSA, and Department of Homeland Security refuse to give the airlines an accurate no fly list,

thereby allowing the most threatening terrorists to continue to fly." Is there a pattern here? You bet there is!

An unnamed "counterterrorist official" told The Wall Street Journal December 31: "'If you look back to these audit reports, there are significant issues raised with the accuracy and omissions to the watchlisting process that haven't been fixed, clearly,' as of Dec. 25. 'Essentially you're screening blindly, and that's not effective'."

However, we can be sure there will be very little in the way of a hard-hitting investigation into this alleged security breach. The New York Times reported that TAC's former CEO John O. Brennan, has been "granted a special ethics waiver ... to conduct a review of the intelligence and screening breakdown that preceded the failed Christmas Day bombing attempt on an American passenger plane over Detroit."

Enter the CIA, Stage (Far) Right

What "other government agency" may have suppressed intelligence on the would-be bomber?

The CBS Evening News revealed December 29 that "as early as August of 2009," tracking closely with the time-frame of NSA intercepts, "the Central Intelligence Agency was picking up information on a person of interest dubbed 'The Nigerian,' suspected of meeting with 'terrorist elements' in Yemen."

Unnamed "intelligence sources" told CBS, "'The Nigerian' has now turned out to be Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab." But that connection "was not made when Abdulmutallab's father went to the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria three months later, on November 19, 2009. It was then he expressed deep concerns to a CIA officer about his son's ties to extremists in Yemen, a hotbed of al Qaeda activity." CBS claims "this information was not connected until after the attempted Christmas Day bombing."


Earlier reports have alleged that Umar's father, a wealthy Nigerian banker and former high state official, Alhaji Umaru Mutallab, had only provided Embassy officials with a vague concern that his son's estrangement "may have" something to do with his growing "religious fervor." This too, turns out to be a lie.

The Times reported that a "family cousin quoted the father as warning officials from the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency in Nigeria: 'Look at the texts he's sending. He's a security threat'."
Nothing vague in this disclosure, but rather more concrete evidence in the form of "texts" which we now know were shortstopped by British security and included "phone taps, email intercepts and other forms of surveillance" by MI5 that led an anguished father to express well-placed fears about his son to U.S officials.


But as the Times were told by their source, "They promised to look into it. They didn't take him seriously."

And here's where things take a decidedly malevolent turn. According to the Times, "C.I.A. officials in Nigeria also prepared a separate report compiling biographical information about Mr. Abdulmutallab, including his educational background and the fact that he was considering pursuing academic studies in Islamic law in Yemen."

"That cable was sent to C.I.A. headquarters in Langley, Va.," Mark Mazzetti and Eric Lipton disclosed, "but not disseminated to other intelligence agencies, government officials said on Wednesday."

Then again, perhaps they knew all-too-well of Abdulmutallab's glide path and chose instead to turn a blind eye. Coming on the heels of disclosures in the British media, the evidence suggests that CIA intelligence provided by NSA intercepts, their own on-the-ground operatives in Yemen and MI5 surveillance reports were scrupulously ignored by factions within the secret state who sat on critical information that withheld, would disarm and paralyze normal security procedures in the face of an attack they knew was imminent.

We were told by corporate media, infamously serving as an echo chamber for grifting politicians, Bushist officials and the 9/11 Commission's 2004 whitewash, that the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks resulted from "a failure of imagination" by counterterrorism officials to "connect the dots."

Seems there were plenty of "dots" in Abdulmutallab's case and yet, inexplicably, if you buy the official story, and sinisterly, if you don't, not a single one was "connected" prior to the time he took his seat on Flight 253.


Despite the fact that Abdulmutallab was denied re-entry into Britain, paid $2,800 in cash for his "ticket to Paradise," and had no luggage that normally would accompany a person holding a 2-year entry visa into the U.S., the erstwhile lap bomber scored a goal each time and eluded every intrusive "profile" presumably in place to keep us "safe." Talk about a hat trick!

Available evidence suggests that Abdulmutallab should have landed on TSA's hush-hush "Selectee list" for additional screening, or the agency's "No-fly list." And given NSA intercepts and a CIA biographical report on the suspect, this alone should have barred him from entering the country if "normal" security procedures were followed. They weren't.

As The Independent on Sunday reported last week, "the revelation of Abdulmutallab's background has confounded terror experts." One such "expert," Dr Magnus Ranstorp of the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defence College, told IoS that "the attempted bombing 'didn't square'."


"On the one hand" Ranstorp said, "it seems he's been on the terror watch list but not on the no-fly list."

"That doesn't square" Ranstorp elaborated, "because the American Department for Homeland Security has pretty stringent data-mining capability. I don't understand how he had a valid visa if he was known on the terror watch list."

Good question, Dr. Ranstorp. Perhaps because someone wanted him on that plane. The question is, who?

One would have thought, given the "special treatment" afforded antiwar activists by TSA at airports, that a warning about Abdul  Mutallab's possible involvement with terrorists, by his own father no less, a former top official in a government friendly to Washington, numerous NSA intercepts, a CIA dossier and MI5 reports would have raised at least one red flag!

In the suspect's case, there were so many red flags flying you'd have thought the Red Army was parading through Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport!

Then again, perhaps Abdul Mutallab was on that plane because, as journalist Daniel Hopsicker was toldby a former aviation executive during his investigation of the 9/11 attacks: "Sometimes when things don't make business sense ... its because they do make sense...just in some other way."

As the World Socialist Web Site points out:

The general outlines of the Northwest bombing attempt and the 9/11 attacks are startlingly similar. One might even say that what is involved is a modus operandi. In both cases, those alleged to have carried out the actions had been the subject of US intelligence investigations and surveillance and had been allowed to enter the country and board flights under conditions that would normally have set off multiple security alarms.

Both then and now, the government and the media expect the public to accept that all that was involved was mistakes. But why should anyone assume that the failure to act on the extensive intelligence leading to Abdulmutallab involved merely "innocent" mistakes--and not something far more sinister? (Bill Van Auken, "The Northwest Flight 253 intelligence failure: Negligence or conspiracy?," World Socialist Web Site, December 31, 2009)

And so dear readers with are left to ponder the question, cui bono? 

Who would benefit politically from a major terrorist incident on American soil, ready, willing and able to step into the breach and exploit the catastrophic loss of human life that would follow in its wake?



Who indeed.

Tom Burghardt is a researcher and activist based in the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to publishing in Covert Action Quarterly and Global Research, , his articles can be read on Dissident Voice,The Intelligence Daily, Pacific Free Press, Uncommon Thought Journal, and the whistleblowing websiteWikileaks. He is the editor of Police State America: U.S. Military "Civil Disturbance" Planning, distributed by AK Press.

Salmon Smolts




Sometimes advances are simple and completely obvious after the fact.  The raising of salmon smolts only began seriously a generation ago.  Before then just getting the initial survival of the hatchlings up to decent levels was such a huge challenge that the smolt losses appeared minor.  It was attributed to a weakening of the stock through excessive survivability.  Amazing what Darwin can explain.

This establishes that the problem has been proper spacing.  It is easily fixed and will be world wide in a jiffy.

Slowly but surely we are mastering the art of salmon husbandry.  I have followed the development of the industry since inception of fish farming.

It is possible to build open ocean sea pens able to withstand foul conditions.  Such will go a long way to overcome the real problems of near shore siting.  It is also possible to simply bag the pens and capture all debris for further processing.  However, it appears that the cheapest and most reliable to date is the use of pens largely open to the sea itself, preferably over fairly deep waters to maximize dispersal of debris.

On the other hand, if someone wishes to convince you that the world is going to run out of food, remind him that salmon farms alone could be built out to provide daily salmon for everyone on Earth without breaking a sweat.  We would never go there, but the capacity is in sight with modest improvements.

Hatchery-Raised Salmon Too Crowded

by Staff Writers

Gothenburg, Sweden (SPX) Jan 07, 2010



Every year, large amounts of hatchery-raised young salmonids are released into Swedish rivers and streams to compensate for losses in natural production. Butthese fish generally survive poorly in the wild.. Researchers at the University of Gothenburg have discovered why: the young fish get too crowded at the hatchery.

The Swedish Research Council Formas is now granting 20 million SEK to a Swedish/Nordic research project. The goal is to find out how the hatcheries can be made more effective.
Raised fish face problems

Salmonids constitute an important natural resource in Scandinavia. Large amounts of young salmon , smolts, are therefore released into rivers and streams. However, conventionally raised fish seem to have problems adapting to their natural environment. The reason for this has not been clear, but researchers at the University of Gothenburg have recently been able to show that one key factor is that the young fish do not get their due personal space at the hatcheries.
Increased survival

Sofia Brockmark, researcher at the Department of Zoology, has studied how the hatchery environment can be improved to increase the survival of the released fish. Her thesis, which will be publicly defended on 18 December, shows that young salmon fish that are less crowded in the hatchery manage the transition more successfully. 'The combination of high density and lots of food affects their development. Our experiments show that salmon fish raised in a more spacious environment, meaning it is more similar to nature, are better at adapting to life in rivers and streams,' says Brockmark.
Millions to salmon research

The research will now be developed further in the SMOLTPRO project, which recently received 20 million SEK from the Swedish Research Council Formas. The project is led by Professor Jorgen Johnsson at the Department of Zoology and is coordinated from the University of Gothenburg, and involves researchers from Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Canada.
Natural hatching

The researchers will use full-scale models in the different climate zones in the Baltic Sea, the Kattegat and the North Sea to investigate the effects of different modifications of the hatchery environment. In addition to experimenting with density, the team is striving to make the hatching environment more natural: 'Today, salmon eggs are put in crates. Our research suggests that the presence of structures on the bottom, such as rocks, stimulates brain development in young salmon,' says Johnsson.
Sustainable practices

An additional hypothesis is that hatchery-raised salmon are fed too much and that their diet is too high in fat. This may make them too fat to be able to adjust successfully. The results of the project will, following a dialogue with several public actors, be used to develop new recommendations on how to make the production of hatchery-raised smolts more ecologically sustainable and ethical. The project is directly linked to the strategic efforts of Formas and the Swedish Government to develop aquaculture practices and attain sustainable management of natural resources.