I would still leave the Arctic sea ice out of the debate as yet. It is marching to a different drummer and present atmospherics may have little to say.
However, this fall it was recognized that the cosmic ray flux was at a surprising maximum and that the cosmic ray hypothesis was predicting a particularly bad winter. In short, it was going to get ugly.
I commented that this winter was an excellent stress test of this important hypothesis and that I would expect a strong cold winter. In fact I stated that the failure to materialize would be a good indication of theory failure.
Well folks, this is ugly.
So far the cosmic ray flux appears to be the one independent phenomenon that we can measure which appears to nicely correlate with our subjective sense of the climate and some of our objective measurements. I had noticed this before and certainly welcomed the clear test we were presented with this year.
There are other important factors, but this truly appears to be impacting directly on the atmosphere in a real time mode. This is something I am not comfortable claiming about shifting ocean temperatures.
Cosmic rays are also impacted by sunspot activity, but we are presently getting a lot more than that that applied this time making this stress test important. I expect to see more interpretation here.
Anyway, when some chap who is an expert on cosmic rays predicts an ugly winter and then delivers, it is time to listen, particularly if one is an editor of the Farmer’s Almanac.
The mini ice age starts here
Last updated at 11:17 AM on 10th January 2010
summer by 2013.
In contrast, Prof Tsonis said, last week 56 per cent of the surface of the