Thursday, January 7, 2010

Sun Spot Ignition

It appears that our sun has finally woken up and considering their position, if that means anything, it is coming sully alive.  Of course, this has only been anticipated for months and it is a case of better late than never.  It still needs more rapid development before it hits a maximum, but at least this month’s activity is a good start.


Considering that the weak magnetic field gave us a cosmic ray high here on Earth this fall and early winter and that the predicted effect of that was a lousy winter, which we have convincingly had so far, this promising onset of solar activity is welcome.


Anyway this is convincing solar activity and obviously strong.  Thus , although we can be still tentative, the balance of probabilities suggests that the cycle is strongly on the upswing and will be as full as the last few cycles if possibly stronger because of the slower ignition that appeared to take place this time.


2009’s Sleepy Sun Finally Woke Up in December


December 31, 2009 
2009 will go down as the sun’s third quietest year on record, under-shone only by 1913 and 2008.
Two hundred-sixty of the year’s 365 days (71 percent) were sunspotless. Last year saw 266 sunspotless days, while the sun had no spots on 311 of the days in 1913. It was only a very active December that kept 2009 from falling below last year’s mark.
Sunspot activity waxes and wanes in a roughly 11-year cycle, so hitting solar minima isn’t surprising. But what the numbers underscore is that we spent much of the year still in the midst of the deepest, longest solar minimum in a long time.
People keep their eyes on sunspots because their frequency and intensity is correlated with the overall level of solar activity. Changes in the sun’s energy flows can seriously impact conditions on Earth and our immediate environment in space. While a particularly active sun can generate geomagnetic storms that damage satellites and electrical grid infrastructure, a sun as quiet as the one of the last few years could affect the Earth’s climate, although not by much.

“If you want to understand all the drivers of Earth’s atmospheric system, you have to understand how sunspots emerge and evolve,” Matthias Rempel of NCAR’s High Altitude Observator told for an earlier story.

The science of sunspots is still murky, despite new supercomputer simulations and theories about their formation. The sun remains filled with surprises.

It’s been an erratic year for sun watchers. At first, it appeared that 2009 might be even quieter than 2008. Eighty-seven percent of the days in the first three months of the year were sunspotless. In May, a big solar flare, the strongest of the new cycle, appeared to augur a return to normal for the sun. Then, August was nearly sunspotless. And in the final reversal, December has been far more active than the rest of the year.
Five regions on the sun were active at once on the 22nd, as seen above. Again assuming the current sunspot holds together until Thursday, there will have been at least one spot on 22 of the month’s 31 days.
But Tony Phillips, a NASA sky watcher who made the chart above and sketched the trend line, isn’t quite ready to declare the solar minimum over.
“If the trend continues exactly as shown (prediction: it won’t), sunspots will become a non-stop daily occurance no later than February 2011. Blank suns would cease and solar minimum would be over,”Phillips wrote on “If the past two years have taught us anything, however, it is that the sun can be tricky and unpredictable. Stay tuned for surprises.”

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