We have posted in the past on the fact that global poverty is falling. This work helps quantize it rather well. This also tells us that the ideological debate is long over. Everyone knows what needs to be done and it looks as if progress is taking place almost everywhere. At worst we are waiting for a few bad actors to get out of the way.
The big changes took place in south Asia and
Latin America and accounted for most change. In fairness, the next big wave of economic improvement will be visibly in Africa. The cell phone is empowering the people hugely.
The remaining laggards are mostly in the Islamic Middle East but not the Islamic Far East. They are determined to proceed slowly it seems.
It really informs us just how massively the world has changed in just the past thirty five years. 1970 was the end of the recovery stroke from the Second World War. The next decade saw consolidation and minor liberalization. The last twenty five years saw the adoption of modern methods by both
China first and then India and with many others getting on board along the way. Brazil China has now entered consolidation and will also begin consolidation in another decade. That does not mean a lack of growth so much as that everyone who is able to actively participate is. Their strength will strongly accelerate India Africa’s response.
The hard thing to get used to is that the
economy is continuing to fade proportionally and to have less an less impact on the global economy. When you have spent your entire life checking US numbers as the present best case, you have a habit to break. US is now our largest car maker having grown fifty percent this past year. Those percentage jumps are still hard to accept. Yet the reality is there while we drift. China
An Attempt to Project Foreward 40 Years on Model Income
Goldmans Sachs had a forecast of GDP for the top 22 countries until 2050 and this was used to approximate world GDP growth. Using wikipedia estimates of future population the mean average GDP per capita was calculated. This was used to approximate the shift in modal income into the future.
There are several ways that this method could be off.
1) The Goldman Sachs estimates could be wrong. In particular
2) The World GDP may not track proportionally with the GDP of the top 22.
3) The modal income may not shift exactly in proportion to the mean income.
4) The population projection could be off
The biggest source of error is the first and the degree of possible error shrinks for the factors listed.