CHINA Demographics now terminal.

 I write this now because we have finally had a flood of China observers waking up to the visible aspects of population decline essentially everywhere in China  In fact the visibles are very bad.

Understand that official numbers are simply impossible to start with at 1.4 billion.  The best unoffical numbers using several methods give us around 750 million before the Pandemic and this is close to 1980 befre the one child policy hit.

My own check comes from looking at cigarette smoking.  china did nothing to stop this which means we have the same numbers as many other countiries or two out of five adults.  Thus the published 318,000,000 smokers translates to 2.5 times this number or around 800,000,000.  In short, hard counts on independent measures all hit around the same numbers. 

What has happened is that we have reached the tipping point imposed by the one child policy.  All pre policy folks are past retirement and were targeted by the pandemic as well.  this surely means they have been dying like flies from natural causes including smoking  they are mostly all gone now and will be in a decade.

worse, we can calculate the effect of the one child policy.   starting in 1980, every 10,000,000 mothers produce 5,000,000 new mothers for the year 2000.  i the year 2000, those 5000,000 mothers produced only 2,500,000 mothers for the year 2020.  What this implies, provided we now operate just at breakeven, is that our Chinese mothers can only support a population one quarter of the orginal.  This means an end population of 200,000,000 at best.  Also understand that nothing can stop this.

This means that the real pandemic was old age in particular with Covid inducing pneumonia to speed the kill. No wonder the CCP is deeply scared.  I now suspect that the real population has fallen over the past five years below 600,000,000 and even that may well be bolstered by higher declines in the country.

this also means we will take similar losses to 2030 and obviously slower thereafter.  They will still be losses.  China will need to open its borders to all of SE Asia to restock their local population. The CCP is doomed and this is what their successors will inherit.