"Markets Will Always Outsmart The Best AI Systems That Our Computer Scientists Develop"

Markets are not the collective wisdom of a crowd either.  Markets are created by efforts to exchange value along with catastrophic failure which forces particpants to question their position.  It is a neo random process inflenced by posted price and promising price failure in either direction.

Anything depending on logic is bound to fail.  This actually rules out AI

The market is not better yet for all that, let alone smarter.  Random price setting representing opinion by a handful is naturally unstable and not AI..

 "Markets Will Always Outsmart The Best AI Systems That Our Computer Scientists Develop"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

 SUNDAY, APR 02, 2023 - 03:30 PM

zerohedge.com/markets/markets-will-always-outsmart-best-ai-systems-our-computer-scientists-develop

"Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive, and their risks will be manageable,” read the open letter [here], signed by countless luminaries from the technology industry and various other fields.

Emad Mostaque, CEO of Stability AI, a leader in the generative AI space inked it. Many less prominent researchers did too.

“We call on all AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.”

Elon Musk was a signatory, and of course, he’s building an AI driving system which is remarkable but has a long way to go.

Based on my personal experience, it has achieved rough parity with a drunk sixteen-year-old.

Or, in economic policy terms, Tesla’s AI has reached singularity with the government’s team responsible for stress testing regional banks. Naturally, it surpassed the Fed’s inflation forecasting team many months ago.

And without reliable inflation estimates, it’s no wonder that our central bank’s interest rate forecasts are such a poor indicator of future policy rates. Financial markets are consistently superior to any group of forecasters, even the mob at the Fed who not only have the economy’s most comprehensive data sets, but who can also directly manipulate markets to make their forecasts come true.

Such teams of experts are no match for free markets, which are humanity’s first glimpse of a true AI. The collective wisdom of the crowd is a clear superhuman intelligence. That is not to say markets are infallible. But they are infinitely adaptable, resilient, and evolve to exploit our vulnerabilities, fears, secrets. At scale, such systems, move money from weak hands to the strong.

And so long as humans are the key decision makers in our economic and political systems, markets will outsmart the best AI systems that our computer scientists develop. But as in all battles for survival, superiority, strong hands will figure out how to harness AI to strengthen our advantage as we trade, invest.30,622