Monday, June 13, 2011

Oil Production Gains for 2012

Near term, new global oil production is coming from Iraq and Canada.  This may or may not be enough to counter any shocks such as we have already received out of Libya.  Declines elsewhere are real and not been countered.  Some of those declines notably Venezuela are due to investment divergence and can be quickly recovered, but others are from reserve declines that cannot be recovered.  Thus the short term oil market is dicy.

In the medium term we have the large new offshore fields and East Africa ramping up even though it all requires huge investment and a critical build out time.

Long term it is all over for oil.  In fact the long term made it presence known for real this year.  I have posted on it but no one is going to understand the impact for quite a while.  The Rossi Focardi Heat Engine will replace all fuel based energy systems at breakneck speed beginning inside of eighteen months.  Electricity can start been made right down town in the middle of a city.  This will make electric vehicles a competitive option to any fuel system and place huge amounts of energy unto the grid.

We will be swamped with cheap electrical power and delivery efficiency alone will be doubling with the new super conducting cables now available.  I suspect that the actual changeover will be one of the fastest ever seen.

All this means that the demand for oil will be dropping to a fraction of present day production inside of the coming several years.  This may sound aggressive, but it is actually a no brainer to the boots on the ground that will make the decisions.

I have watching this all coalesce and it was a matter of waiting for the correct boot to drop.  That boot came from Rossi Focardi with their marvelous heat engine that delivers eight times unity while converting an atom of nickel into an atom of copper without throwing off any nasty radiation.   We need nothing else.

Iraq sees oil output at 3 million bpd by end of 2011 and up to 4 million bpd by end of 2012

JUNE 04, 2011

Iraq's current output is about 2.7 million to 2.8 million bpd. Iraq's oil exports in May averaged 2.225 million bpd.

"Export terminals and pipelines will not be the obstacle," Shahristani, who is responsible for Iraq's energy affairs, told reporters during a visit to southern oilfields and export facilities.

Iraq is rebuilding its oil infrastructure after years of conflict and has signed deals with oil majors to reach a proposed production capacity of 12 million bpd by 2017. Most analysts see 6-7 million bpd as more realistic.

The Rumaila oilfield should reach 1.4 million to 1.5 million bpd by the end of this year. Rumaila current output is about 1.250 million bpd.

West Qurna Phase One was expected to reach 400,000 barrels per day by the end of this year, from current production of around 350,000 bpd.

The Tuba oilfield was around 23,000 bpd, and this was expected to rise to 50,000 bpd at the end of the year.

JUNE 04, 2011

Oil sands growth and new production from existing conventional oil reserves will drive Canadian crude oil production to about 4.7 million barrels per day by 2025 according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. (40 pages) This is about 401,000 b/d higher than previously forecast, due primarily to the higher conventional production and the inclusion of some additional in situ projects that were previously put on hold.

Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast* (million b/d)

                              2010 Actual  2011   2015   2020   2025

Oil Sands                            1.5    1.6    2.2    3.0    3.7
Conventional                         0.9    1.0    1.0    0.9    0.7
Pentanes/Condensate                  0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Offshore                             0.3    0.3    0.2    0.2    0.1
Total Canadian Crude Oil Production  2.8    2.9    3.5    4.2    4.7

The successful use of horizontal drilling and multi-fracturing in the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan provided the earliest indications that this technology was a game changer for the industry. Over the medium term, moderate growth in Saskatchewan light oil production is estimated. The Bakken play is expected to continue to perform strongly; and there is increased interest in horizontal drilling in emerging oil plays like the Lower Shaunavon in the southwest of the province, the Viking in west-central Saskatchewan around Kindersley and the Birdbear in the northwest of the province near Lloydminster. Similarly, the Cardium formation in Alberta and the Viking formation in central and eastern Alberta and west central Saskatchewan have been identified as formations well suited for increased use of this technology since they contain large deposits of oil-in-place with historically low recovery rates.

Canada’s oil sands deposits are divided into three major regions in northern Alberta referred to as the Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River deposits. The Alberta Energy Resources and Conservation Board (ERCB) estimated at year-end 2009, that these areas contain remaining established reserves of 170 billion barrels.
Of the remaining established reserves in Alberta, 136 billion barrels, or 80 per cent, is considered recoverable by in situ methods and 34 billion barrels can be recovered by surface mining. In situ recovery includes both primary methods, which are similar to conventional production, and other methods whereby steam, water, or other solvents are injected into the reservoir to reduce the viscosity of the bitumen, allowing it to flow to a vertical or horizontal wellbore.

There are also smaller deposits in northwest Saskatchewan next to the Athabasca oil sands deposit. The Saskatchewan Ministry of Energy and Resources has estimated 2.7 million hectares of potential land but the resource base has not been officially determined.

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