Even the EU is waking up to the need for oil refineries

fossil fuel is the low cost base load that steps up in an emergency.  It is neither that cheap nor easily replaced in our economy.  In case you have not noticed, the globe has been diversifying away from fossil fuel over the past fifty years.  

We have working alternatives which is nice but they still carry a fraction of the energy load.  The biggest shift is from Ic transport to ev transport.  It is only happening now in practice and just now successfully.

It is very much a process even when the global consensus is onside and we are no longer going broke doing it.

The EU has a problem today they are not ready for.  Scary.  Every house in europe needs a cast iron stove to act as backup.  That used to be it folks.

Even the EU is waking up to the need for oil refineries

Image by John from Pixabay

By Jo Nova

https://joannenova.com.au/2026/11/even-the-eu-is-waking-up-to-the-need-for-oil-refineries/

Europe is “Rethinking” its oil refinery phase-down

Having spent a decade trying to put oil refineries out of business with the Paris agreement and carbon penalties, suddenly the EU is ‘talking’ to oil refineries about keeping them in action.

The oil chickens have come home in Europe. Winter is on the way, their gas storage is at a record low for this time of year, and gas prices have ominously and rapidly climbed above 100€ for the first time since the Ukrainian War crisis in 2022. This latest energy shock has added €100 billion to Europe’s import bill according to OilPrice.

Dec 26 TTF Gas futures

German storage is only at 61% full — compared to the five year norm of being 89% full at this time of year.

Right about now, the worst possible thing would be a cold winter. Or worse, say, a situation where the Arctic Polar Vortex looks like breaking up next week, which would be the earliest it has ever collapsed since records began in 1959. Meteorologists are suddenly very animated because literally 100% of the runs on the ECMWF model are saying the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) will happen by Nov 16th, and it may come as early as the 4th or 5th. (You know, tomorrow!) Many years the Polar Vortex doesn’t weaken until February or March. To put this in perspective, the earliest recorded SSW event was Nov 28th 1968.* So it really would be rewriting the record books.

UPDATE: On the left is a normal polar vortex at this time of year. On the right side is the windpattern today over the Arctic at 30km up. It appears to be breaking up. This is over the North Pole and three times higher than planes fly, but it will affect weather patterns in the lower atmosphere in a few weeks.

If this breaks down warm air can suddenly rise to this height creating a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. (SSW). Temperatures can rise by up to 50°C in this normally very cold thin air. The colors here describe wind speeds (not temperatures). There is no sign yet of the characteristic warming we might see.

Most years the polar vortex forms 30km above the Arctic at 10hPA. This year the winds are slower and the pattern is splitting. Images from Nullschool

Pierre Gosselin explains at NoTricksZone, that a strong spinning Polar Vortex keeps the cold arctic air contained over the arctic. When this pattern breaks down, it affects the layers below. Two to six weeks later the warm winds off the Atlantic may get blocked which means the frigid air from the North Pole and Siberia can flow into central Europe. This has been called The Beast from The East.

Maybe God wants to make sure they learn the lesson this time?

Of course, the polar vortex might not misbehave, the weather might not get horribly cold, and the war(s) might not get worse. But the EU are in a position where a catastrophe is not unthinkable, and they are counting on luck.

They are realizing that closing a quarter of all their refineries in the last 20 years was stupid.

As an Australian, all I can say is “hold my beer” — just one quarter gone? We are the most isolated, sparsely populated country, flying and driving thousands of miles. We’re more dependent on diesel than anywhere on earth, and yet we’ve closed three quarters of all our refineries.

Added to that, we have the smallest stockpile of diesel in the world — currently listed as 34 days.

“How long do you want your civilization to last”? About five weeks.

Luftbild Hafen Rotterdam Refinery, Photo by Krd

Commission launches High-Level Dialogue with the European refining sector

The European Commission

The European Commission launched today the first High-Level Dialogue with the European refining industry to discuss how to strengthen Europe’s energy security, defence readiness and industrial competitiveness in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

EU refineries supply about 70% of jet fuel and 85% of diesel consumed in Europe.

In true bureaucratic tongue twisters they will have cake, eat cake, sell cake and limit cake simultaneously

This complete about-face is in line with their climate ambitions, of course.

Dan Jørgensen, Commissioner for Energy and Housing, said:

Crises are also opportunities. We need to create an environment that supports sufficient domestic fuel production in Europe as well as long-term viability of European refining as the EU decarbonises. This is why, together with the sector, we will work on a joint roadmap on its transformation and contribution to the EU’s security objectives and in line with our climate ambition”

Not to put to fine a point on it, the Defence Commissioner has suddenly realized they can’t fight without fuel:

Andrius Kubilius, Commissioner for Defence and Space, said:

“I am always quoting a very famous American historical figure, General John Pershing, who was leading American troops on the European continent during the First World War, who said very simple truth: the battles are won by infantries, the wars are won by logistics. And fuel supplies are the biggest part of what we can call logistics. Proper fuel supplies to our militaries are crucial in our defence readiness. So definitely it is an obvious truth that defence without fuel is impossible.”

The position they are in is exactly what they created. The EU Emissions Trading scheme was designed to put oil refineries out of business:

Europe Is Now Seriously Rethinking Its Oil Refinery Phase Down

By Alex Kimani, OilPrice

…Europe is now being forced to reckon with its decision to ditch some of its fossil fuel assets as yet another global energy crisis unfolds just years after the 2022 energy crisis. Over the past 20 years, Europe has aggressively phased down its oil refineries, shutting down about a quarter of its plants and reducing processing capacity by roughly 10%, with EU policymakers anticipating that the green transition would steadily shrink domestic demand for gasoline and diesel. A lot of the attrition was driven by onerous environmental rules and harsh penalties for non-compliance. To wit, under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), refineries face a declining cap on carbon emissions and receive fewer free pollution allowances over time, sharply increasing the cost of operating their facilities, while stricter environmental rules and pollution limits under the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) mandate expensive retrofits and continuous compliance costs for heavy polluters, negatively impacting oil refining margins.

Ominously, last week only 86% of model runs predicted the polar vortex will undergo a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and earlier than it has since 1959.

The Polar Vortex Is Breaking Early, and Europe’s Gas Storage Is Low

Jakob, Steinschaden, Trending Topics

Of all years, the polar vortex could collapse earlier than ever recorded in the one when Europe’s gas storage is unusually empty. Weather models are forecasting a sudden warming of the stratosphere over the Arctic in the first week of November that could split the cold engine above the North Pole. According to Gizmodo, 86 percent of the ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predict that the winds in the stratosphere will reverse by the second week of November. That has never happened this early in the season since records began in 1959.

This week, 50 out of 50 model runs are predicting it.