The Kobeissi Letter The copper market is facing a severe supply squeeze:

Let us hope this is structural. Supply has a long lead time even for established reserves.


We actually have ample potential copper resources but never enough that are shovel ready. That has several years of lead time and a heavy capital outlay.  First we need to build a power dam, then we need a rail line into it and then we build a town.

That is the front end folks and why most significant discoveries are often found beside the highway.  It also takes a lot ofveyeballs to see something at all.

The Kobeissi Letter
The copper market is facing a severe supply squeeze:

The LME’s front-month copper spread surged to a $370 per ton premium on Friday, the widest one-month spread since the 2021 supply squeeze.

This means traders are paying a historic premium for copper available in the near term versus delivery a month later, signaling that physical supply is extremely tight.

At the same time, the widely followed cash-to-three-month spread rose to $434 per ton, also the highest since 2021, prompting the LME to tighten its market controls.

This comes as LME copper stockpiles have fallen for 42 consecutive days, the longest streak since 2014, to 204,975 tons, with nearly half of the remaining metal already scheduled for withdrawal.

All while traders and producers are redirecting copper to the US, where expectations of tariffs on refined copper are pushing prices above LME levels and creating arbitrage opportunities.

The supply crunch in the copper market is far from over.

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