this tells us that AI is doing just fine. what needs to happen now is for AI to fully engage the human base as well to produce full utilization. In fact, i now think that human availability will be the limiting factor for AI applications. This is contrary to many assumptions.
Can AI effectively employ and deploy every human on Earth? I ask this because deployed humanity has been increasing steadfily for a very long time. Recall deployed humanity supports modernity. That truely emerged in Europe during Edwardian times. And it is still expanding.
All trend lines converge toward 2050 which is not far away anymore.
AI Demand Strong, Memory Prices Will Go Up and AI Model Profits are Proven
May 1, 2026 by Brian Wang
Semianalysis AI Value Capture – The Shift To Model Labs Anthropic is now making $44 billion per year run rate and this is heading to $100 billion per year by the end of 2026.
As of today, Memory SOCAMM contract pricing paid by Nvidia at ~$8/GB in 1Q26, a sharp step-up from 4Q25 to 1Q26. Predicted exit ’26 pricing for SOCAMM could exceed $13/GB, which is roughly in line with mobile DRAM pricing expected by the end of this year; accordingly, we view ~$10/GB as a reasonable assumption for Nvidia’s SOCAMM cost.
Vera Rubin VR NVL72: V for Value – Rubin delivers a step jump in performance per TCO.
ROI is going more strongly to AI model makers like Anthropic and to the memory companies.
Capex Per Watt Trends from GB300 to VR NVL72
For GB300, DRAM was bundled into the board and marked up at ~75% gross margin, making the margin charged on the memory on the board consistent with what is implicitly priced for the Blackwell systems.
For Rubin, we initially assumed the same dynamic, with the understanding that Nvidia would target an overall system Gross Margin in the mid-70s. As such, our initial Bill of Material (BoM) modeling applied a consistent margin throughout the entire Strata board leaving SOCAMM margin at the same mid 70s margin.
Hyperscaler networking cost advantages over Neocloud only becomes a 10% increase in all-in capital cost for a full rack-scale server.
May 1, 2026 by Brian Wang
Semianalysis AI Value Capture – The Shift To Model Labs Anthropic is now making $44 billion per year run rate and this is heading to $100 billion per year by the end of 2026.
As of today, Memory SOCAMM contract pricing paid by Nvidia at ~$8/GB in 1Q26, a sharp step-up from 4Q25 to 1Q26. Predicted exit ’26 pricing for SOCAMM could exceed $13/GB, which is roughly in line with mobile DRAM pricing expected by the end of this year; accordingly, we view ~$10/GB as a reasonable assumption for Nvidia’s SOCAMM cost.
Vera Rubin VR NVL72: V for Value – Rubin delivers a step jump in performance per TCO.
ROI is going more strongly to AI model makers like Anthropic and to the memory companies.
Capex Per Watt Trends from GB300 to VR NVL72
For GB300, DRAM was bundled into the board and marked up at ~75% gross margin, making the margin charged on the memory on the board consistent with what is implicitly priced for the Blackwell systems.
For Rubin, we initially assumed the same dynamic, with the understanding that Nvidia would target an overall system Gross Margin in the mid-70s. As such, our initial Bill of Material (BoM) modeling applied a consistent margin throughout the entire Strata board leaving SOCAMM margin at the same mid 70s margin.
Hyperscaler networking cost advantages over Neocloud only becomes a 10% increase in all-in capital cost for a full rack-scale server.
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