Canada Could Pass China’s GDP by 2100

Understand that it is Canadian policy to bring in high quality immigrants and turn their children into good Canadians.  We have been successfully doing this forever now.

This is obviously not going to end for a while when everyone can see a clear benefit accruing to their children.  The real problem is whether this policy can be sustained as is.  so far so good.

Chinese policy is now triggering a massive population collapse and we finally see the real numbers been published on what is to come.  also recall that Japan as our bell weather has been unable to shift policy to stop thge bleeding.

none of this is good.

also Canada does have policy options that are much easier to impliment here as anywhere else.  They could impliment my four child system along with a progressive fitness draft system for all our youth.  This would allow us to also properly terraform the whole boreal forest and the prairies as well into productive grassland and pine husbandry using wetland fodder systems along with cattle husbandry to build up soils.  all this would allow the build out of a population base that could also reach one billion.

that may be an imaginary target population, but we really need to plan this way and include the whole watershed of the Great lakes.

Canada Could Pass China’s GDP by 2100

September 18, 2023 by Brian Wang

Most people would say that it is impossible for Canada GDP at $2.2 trillion today to pass China’s GDP which is $18.8 trillion. The last year Canada was ahead of China’s GDP was in 1978. Canada’s economy as 33% larger than China’s in 1976. China had 930 million people in 1976 and Canada had 23 million.

How could this happen ? China collapses or Canada surges or a lot of both.

Since 1976, China’s GDP has gone up 100 times while Canada’s went up 11 times.

Canada’s population is now 40.35 million. Canada added ten million people since 2000. Canada added 3.4 million people from 2000 to 2010. Canada added 6.7 million people since 2010.

Canada added 2.5 million people from 2021 to today and this year the annualized adding 1.4 million people.

Statscan estimated 38.9 million at Sept 30, 2022, 39.3 million at Dec 2022. Canada added over 1 million people in 9 months and 352,000 in the last 3 months.

Who are the people immigrating to Canada? Over 25% of the people immigrating to Canada are from India and over 7% are from China.

IF Canada adds 10 million people per decade from now to 2100 then Canada will add 77 million people and have a population of 117 million.

IF Canada adds 14 million people per decade from now to 2100 then Canada will add 107 million people and have a population of 147 million.

This would be 25-30 million people from India moving to Canada and 5 to 10 million from China moving to Canada.

With only population growth and no per capita GDP growth Canada can reach $9 trillion in GDP in today’s dollars in 2100.

China is heading the opposite direction on population and India could join in dropping population. China now has the lowest fertility rate alongside other southeast asian countries of — Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. China population is shrinking but more important to population collapse is the number of girls 0-4 is half the number of women who are in 35-39 and aging out of fertility. The biggest problem with China have a fertility rate of 1.09 is that there are only 0.54 fertile daughters produced by the average women. The Fertile women population plummets far faster than overall population. The number of women in China able to have children will drop in half by 2045-2055.

China’s population could drop from 1.4 billion to 1 billion in 2050 and could drop to 400 million in 2100. China’s population would be less than 30% of its population today. It would be less than half of the population in 1976.

With only population change and no per capita GDP growth China would have $6 trillion GDP in today’s dollars in 2100.

Japan’s GDP hit the wall in 1995 at $5.5 trillion. Japan’s population aged and shrank to $4.2 trillion last year and maybe $4.4 trillion this year. Japan lost 25% of its GDP over a time (1995-2023) when the Canada and USA each more tripled GDP.

Japan’s median age increased from 38 in 1995 to 48 in 2023.

China’s median age will increase from 38 today to 50 in 2050.

Canada can roughly double its population by 2050-2055 and its GDP would triple or quadruple. This would be $7-9 trillion GDP around 2050.

China could take a 30-50% GDP hit as the demographic impact would be worse than Japan from 1995-2023. This would put China at $9-12 trillion in GDP. If China is able to sustain GDP in spite of the aging and shrinking population then it would take until 2070 to 2080 for Canada to pass China.

30% of China’s GDP is from real estate. Japan’s real estate was cut in half from 1995 to 2023 because of the reduced demand from a shrinking aging population. If China has a long and near permanent recession from an aging and shrinking population then many more Chinese could choose to emigrate. If millions of people in China decide to leave then their destinations will be Canada, Australia, USA and Europe.

China had a great economy in the 1990s and still had net migration out of the country. When China’s economy was not so good there over 800,000 net migrants. If China has a sustained Japan-like lost decades then emigration could easily spike to 2 million per year. Canada would be welcoming 200,000 to 300,000 from China each year instead of 35000.

India’s population has dropped below replacement as well. There are projections that India could drop below 1.7 on fertility this year. Replacement fertility is 2.1. Indians in Malaysia and other southeast countries with chinese and indian populations show the same low fertility rate. If India’s GDP per capita moves up then India would likely also face 1.2-1.4 fertility levels. India’s population could start shrinking around 2050-2060 and could also drop below 1 billion by 2100.

A bad economy in India would mean more Indian emigration to Canada.