China Auto Industry World largest

The lesson for the rest of the world is that it is possible to build out a fully functional manufacturing industry at a fifty percent growth rate per year.  China is not special.  It is called following the dots.

The USA today is suffering from a loss of direction and a loss of confidence.  This was brought on be the wrecking of the financial system by reckless credit expansion brought on by initially creditable brokers pretending to be bankers.  This was the recipe for disaster prevented by Glass Steagell from 1933 through 1998.  The result will always be the same for the exact same reasons.

After all, if you find yourself in that cats bird seat, you peel off an armful of loot into your possession and quickly exit while promoting the next pig in line.  Three promotions later, the place is run by folks who truly believe they are geniuses and cannot see the oncoming wreck.

If our so called brain trust can quite playing politics for a day or two, we can emulate China today and be twice as rich in the next decade.

I have already posted on how to revamp the mortgage business through changes in the foreclosure law able to quickly eliminate the overhang.  The other step is to immediately provide guarantees for a full press energy build out that will eliminate all oil imports outside of North America in a decade.  I did not say cash.  It is all internally financeable.  It just needs to be a national priority in the same way China has made high speed rail a priority.  Electric cars work for us and they can be now sped to market as battery capability rises.

That is the real lesson isn’t it?  We are failing to provide institutional leadership and that is why we are in a mess.

War is no longer economic but supporting industry does no matter how egregious the management is at times.

China becomes world's biggest auto maker

http://www.china.org.cn/business/2010-01/11/content_19215511.htm

Official figures Monday confirmed China had overtaken the United States to become the world's top auto maker and market in 2009 boosted by government stimulus measures.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced annual sales rose 46.15 percent year on year to 13.64 million units. Output increased 48.3 percent to 13.79 million units.

Passenger car sales were up 52.93 percent to 10.33 million units, and production was 10.38 million units, up 54.11 percent year on year.

The brisk sales in China is in contrast with the United States where 10.43 million units were sold last year, 2.8 million units less than in 2008, as the global financial crisis kept U.S. consumers out of the showroom.

The three top-selling brands last year were Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW Volkswagen and Shanghai General Motors -- all joint venture brands between Chinese auto makers and the German or U.S. counterparts.

"China's market still enjoyed abundant potential, as living standards improved and the average auto ownership remained low," Dong Yang, CAAM deputy chairman told Xinhua.

The industry would continue to see rapid growth in the next decade as it had become a pillar of the national economy, he said.

To boost the sluggish auto market in 2008 and spur the use of clean and fuel-efficient cars, the government announced in January last year that it would halve the purchase tax to 5 percent on vehicles with a displacement of less than 1.6 liters.

Rural consumers got up to 5,000 yuan (735 U.S. dollars) in government subsidies for vehicles with a displacement under 1.3 liters.

The annual revenue from auto purchase tax was expected to surpass 110 billion yuan, a rise of 10 billion yuan year on year, as more units were sold, analyst said.

Besides policy incentives, the underlying reason behind the sales boom was that the consumption structure was improved while housing and traveling costs increased, said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist with the National Bureau of Statistics.

"It would profoundly impact the Chinese auto market," he said.

Brisk sales in China also allowed the world's leading auto makers report double-digit growth in China last year despite bleak pictures in other parts of the world.

Against the backdrop of 15-percent slump worldwide, Ford reported a 44-percent sales rise to 440,619 units in China in 2009.

General Motors (GM)'s sales rose 66.9 percent to a record high of 1.82 million units in China. The German auto maker Volkswagen AG sold 1.4 million units in China, up 36.7 percent from a year earlier.

Since the sales in 2009 would overdraw demands for this year and next, and with the less aggressive tax incentives for 2010, sales expansion was expected to slow remarkably this year, said Huang Yonghe, analyst with the China Automotive Technology and Research Center.

Dong Yang estimated the auto sales growth would retreat to 10 percent to reach 15 million units in 2010.

"Despite China's top position in sales, there are still distance to go before it becomes a real auto giant, as it does not own the state-of-the-art technologies nor world-famous brands," said Dong Yang.

As part of its "going global" strategy, Geely, China's largest privately-owned car maker, is close to finalizing a deal to buy Volvo to acquire the new energy technology and access the world auto market.

The Beijing Automotive Industry Holding purchased some assets of GM's Saab in December. The Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial also has agreed to take over Hummer brand.

Acquiring foreign brands could help accelerate China's pace of technological innovation, but it could not be a shortcut to the global stage, said Han Lei, deputy director of the Society of Automotive Engineering of China.

"We can not simply copy foreign brand's technology and management expertise, but use them as a basis to develop our own model," he said.

The unprecedented boom also boosted producer's morale for further expansion.

"The Chinese auto makers added the capacity by 30 percent to 20million units in 2009, leaving their bitter memories of job cuts and shuttered business far behind," said Wei Wenqing, vice manager of the Dongfeng Citroen Motor Corporation.

Fuel-efficient cars have already shown some signs of overheating, as the demand for auto with displacement less than 1.6 liters was about 3 million units before 2011, less than half of the capacity of 7 million units, said Jia Xinguang, auto industry analyst.

"Since this market is largely affected by government policies, uncertainty and risks remain," he said.

Haiti Death Toll 240,000 to 400,000

Slowly but surely we are catching up on the true dimensions of the Haiti quake.  The bottom line is that total deaths will come in between 250,000 to 400.000.  I think though that we should be toward the low end of this range since by now most easy recovery should be well under way.

 

Virtuously all these deaths resulted from almost nonexistent building codes or certainly a non existent respect for proper engineering.  This was not an act of God.  It was an act of man.  It is a reminder that in the face of natural disaster that people will die, but also that it is possible to prevent those deaths.

 

Concrete is a terrible building material in an earthquake prone district.  It needs to be well reinforced with a lot of expensive steel for any hope of retaining integrity.  It is also heavy.  That means that it will develop a huge amount of momentum that will tear apart any structure at the joints.

 

That is why the best strategy is to find a way to retain joint strength while reducing building mass.  That is the weakness of classic post and beam structures.  The joint itself can often be easily pulled apart or merely shaken off center if the fastening is not very strong.  In fact they present multiple failure points.  Combine that with a tile room and we have a death trap.

 

Eliminate roof weight and using a series of support walls, possibly at right angles to each other, is inherently a much more resistant regime.  North American wood frame tends to naturally provide this sort of strength and even better, it tends to avoid catastrophic collapse long enough for escape.

 

Again recall the last big quake in California at magnitude 7.  Freeways crumpled and bridges were damaged.  Yet we did not find whole neighborhoods collapsed as in Haiti.  Certainly as many people were affected and a lot of tall concrete buildings that ride through without trouble.

 

Let us make sure that the new Haiti is built to do as well.

 

 

Haiti Disaster Scale Update

 

BBC News - The confirmed death toll from Haiti's devastating earthquake has risen above 150,000 in the Port-au-Prince area alone, a government minister has said.

Many more remain uncounted under rubble in the capital and elsewhere, including the towns of Jacmel and Leogane.

Leogane had a population of 134,000 and 90% of the buildings were destroyed.

Jacmel had a population of 30,000 and at least 3,000 people died

200,000 now appears to be the minimum for Port au Prince alone. With a final number probably in the range of 210,000-350,000.

Leogane was at epicenter and has been getting much help. 30,000 minimum and probable range of 40,000-60,000.

Total probable range looks like 250,000 to 400,000. 

Haiti capital earthquake death toll 'tops 150,000'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8477770.stm

The confirmed death toll from Haiti's devastating earthquake has risen above 150,000 in the Port-au-Prince area alone, a government minister has said.

Communications Minister Marie-Laurence Jocelyn Lassegue said the count was based on bodies collected in and around the capital by state company CNE.

Many more bodies remain uncounted under rubble in the capital, including the towns of

Jacmel and Leogane.

The search for survivors has officially ended and the focus has shifted to aid.

But there is disagreement about how well the aid operation is doing, with the head of Italy's civil protection service making highly critical comments.

Guido Bertolaso, who is in Haiti to co-ordinate relief efforts, also criticised what he saw as the presence of too many American soldiers.

He said they had no training in running a civilian relief operation.

"When there is an emergency, it triggers a vanity parade. Lots of people go there anxious to show that their country is big and important, showing solidarity", he said.

He called on the United Nations to establish a procedure to follow when major natural disasters occur.

As the death toll in Haiti has risen, it has become clear the 12 January quake is one of the worst natural disasters to have struck in recent years.

Some say the 7.0-magnitude quake killed as many as 200,000 people, while an estimated 1.5 million people have been left homeless.

Ms Lassegue said that the authorities were still far from knowing the total number of those killed.

"Nobody knows how many bodies are buried in the rubble - 200,000, 300,000? Who knows the overall death toll?" the Associated Press quotes her as saying on Sunday.

Speaking to reporters a day earlier, she said the general hospital had received about 10,000 corpses, which it had handed over to CNE for burial.

At least 75,000 people have been buried in mass graves since the disaster. Relatives have also burnt the bodies of some of the victims.

'Tremendous need'

Thousands of people joined open-air church services in Port-au-Prince, Leogane - the epicentre of the earthquake - and elsewhere on Sunday.

A day after the funeral of the capital's Roman Catholic archbishop, Father Glanda Toussaint celebrated Mass at an altar improvised on a wooden table by the wrecked cathedral.

He told his congregation: "What we are going through is not finished, we must reconstruct the country and reconstruct our faith. As a Haitian, it hurts."

Haitian-born rapper Wyclef Jean, who set up the charity foundation Yele Haiti, arrived in the capital on Sunday.

He was expected to meet officials and help distribute aid to people left homeless.

He was among a number of high-profile artists to take part in a "Hope for Haiti Now" telethon in the US on Friday which raised more than $57m (£35m) for the aid effort.

Meanwhile, BBC correspondents in Port-au-Prince report a few signs of normal life returning to the city, with street stalls starting to sell fruit and vegetables and some shops and banks re-opening.

Queues to withdraw cash have been long, as prices for what is now on sale have increased dramatically and many Haitians have been without access to money for days.

The UN says more than 130,000 people have now been relocated out of Port-au-Prince by the authorities, easing the pressure on overcrowded camps in the city. Others have left independently.

Foreign ministers will discuss plans for reconstruction at an international donor conference to take place in the Canadian city of Montreal on Monday.

Hours after Haiti's government declared a formal end to the search for survivors on Saturday, a 24-year-old man was pulled alive from the remains of a hotel in the capital after 11 days under the rubble.

Rescuers described his survival as "a miracle".

Onlookers cheered as Wismond Exantus - smiling and apparently in a good condition - emerged on a stretcher from what remains of the Napoli Inn Hotel.

He later told reporters that soft drinks and snacks had kept him going. A French medic said he could expect to leave hospital within a day or two.

The BBC's Orla Guerin in Port-au-Prince says doctors believe he will make a full recovery.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Exantus appealed for search and rescue efforts to continue so that others could share his chance of rescue.

Tiny port city of Leogane, far from media glare, struggles to dig out

By DAPHNE DURET

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Updated: 6:21 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 21, 2010

Posted: 9:27 a.m. Thursday, Jan. 21, 2010

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/world/tiny-port-city-of-leogane-far-from-media-188896.html

LEOGANE, HAITI — The line for blankets and tents outside city hall stretches all the way back to Leogane's demolished main cathedral, where a young boy pulled down a suitcase full of bricks harvested one-by-one from another destroyed building nearby.

A middle-aged woman twists her way into the line behind hundreds of people, presses her fists into her chest and pushes her elbows out to hold her spot.

"I don't know what they're giving here," she says. "I just saw everyone coming so I knew they had something."

A long-Tap tap bus pauses on the corner near where she was standing, but the crowd refuses to part to let it through so the driver turns around. On the back of the bus were four words that on Wednesday summed up the plight of those still living in this city more than 90-percent demolished by last week's earthquake:

La vie pas facil. Life is not easy.

A scarcity of food, water and hope.

Food and water are scarce in this port city 20 miles west of the capital, Port-au-Prince. Lack of communication between the Leogane's leadership and foreign aid workers have stymied relief efforts. Desperation among locals, as well as potential invasions from escaped prisoners from Port-au-Prince and Petit Guav, have led to thefts and incidents of mob action.

"We had some water, but now the water is giving people diarrhea," Alexis Santos, Leogane's mayor, said Wednesday. "People here don't have money, and even if you have money there's no way to get food."

There are many small cities struggling outside the media glare shown of the devastation in Port-au-Prince. And in Wednesday's radio address, Haitian President Rene Preval acknowledged the gravity of the situation to the nation's people.

"You can compare what happened to us with bombs dropping on a country in the midst of war," he said.

But if those words somehow provide a salve to the wounds of Leogane's survivors, it isn't evident in this sugar-growing region of 134,000.

"People come and take our pictures but do not ask any questions to find out how we are doing,' said Jacob Tales, a shoemaker who wore no shoes.

He sat in front of the mass destruction that was St. Rose de Lima school repairing shoes. His foot was wrapped in a dirty torn bed sheet in an attempt to cover the infected wound on his right foot. He sat beside a pile of broken dusty shoes and fixed them one by one. "You have to be sad with all of this,' he said.

According to relief workers on the ground, the city's death toll estimated in the tens of thousands.

Nkaimbi Philemon, chief of United Nations police force in Leogane, arrived the day after the Jan. 12 quake to find that of the city's 50-member police department, only the police commissioner and four officers remained. Philemon believes all the others were either killed or fled the area.

People were so scared for the first two days after the quake that there was no crime, he said. "But then, after that, when they realized that there was no help, no aid coming," he added, "people became desperate."

A failure to communicate

The first attacks were on what was left of two small local banks near the police station on the city's main road. The thieves were looking for cash but found that the banks had already been scoured.

Later, a large group stormed a storage facility for rice. Philemon described the incident as not an actual crime but a mob action.

"They were simply hungry," he said.

One of the biggest challenges for the U. N. team: Trying to facilitate the orderly distribution of humanitarian aid.

Relief workers say communication is always a barrier. Often the local government doesn't coordinate with outside agencies when planning distributions.

U.N. peacekeepers were assured when they arrived that city leaders had a plan in place that they would merely need to follow, but they found the government disorganized and ill-equipped to coordinate the many agencies that have arrived to help.

A makeshift distribution center on the outskirts of the city Wednesday was supposed to have been set up elsewhere, but relief workers said local officials rerouted them at the last minute so they had to quickly revise their distribution plans.

On Wednesday, a crowd of hundreds surrounded two aid trucks, grappling for bags of soybean-enriched bulgar wheat so much that a few packages ripped apart, spilling the grains onto the grass. Some people loaded heavy bags atop tiny motorcycles, while others scooped the remnants from the torn apart bags into handkerchiefs and cloths.

Lisa Tonelli, an emergency advisor for CARE, said Wednesday that unlike a hurricane or typhoon, where lower socioeconomic groups feel the devastation more than the middle- and upper classes, last week's magnitude 7.0 earthquake affected all groups — especially in places like Leogane.

"In this case, there were people who had concrete houses and were more middle-class," Tonelli said, looking out at the crowd. "That makes it all the more difficult to lose everything."

Tonelli and other humanitarian aid workers say the most important task ahead of them is to give the people of Leogane necessities to survive, and then go about the task of helping them rebuild and restore their dignity.

'We have to go on'

For some, like Clorieve Adrien, who lives on the outskirts of the small city, there seems to be enough to get by. Adrien earlier this week was able to call her daughter, Shanika Mathieu of Port St. Lucie, and tell her all was well.

Mathieu had heard reports about escaped prisoners stealing from townspeople and raping women in the streets. She worried for her mother, but Adrien on Wednesday said the small group of villagers in the remote area looked out for one another, and all was well.

"I'm safe here."

As for the communication between foreign officials and the local government, a meeting was scheduled for late Wednesday between Santos and foreign aid officials to help clear up the issues.

And so for now life, though far from easy, continues for Leogane's people.

"This is what we have to do," Santos said. "We have to go on."

The Miami Herald contributed to this story.

IPCC Conspiracy

Rather fortunately, the creation of a false scientific consensus is not a criminal act or the reported meetings described herein would nicely meet the needs of a criminal conspiracy.

I continue to be appalled by ongoing revelations about the IPCC process which clearly degenerated into an exercise of a targeted public relations program in support of Kyoto and as far removed from the standards of scientific discourse as it is possible to get.

Imagine the fate of a gold mining engineer who saw fit to alter data to support the market price of the stock.  In fact there is no need to.  They always get caught if they have any funding success and are run out of the business. 

The actual manipulation seems to be under the control of a few who largely suppressed dissent.  This is still damaging to the reputations of folks who went along.  Perhaps we have seen the end of every stray paper in unrelated fields making the gratuitous claim that it is all caused by global warming.

It is not really making the press, but more and more participants in the IPCC report are taking the moral high ground and demanding reform. It is hard to see how the present chairman can remain.

See www.ClimateDepot.com for latest.

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/5064/Manufactured-Science-Another-IPCC-Scientist-Reveals-How-UN-Scientists-talked-about-trying-to-make-IPCC-report-so-dramatic-that-US-would-just-have-to-sign-Kyoto-Protocol

Manufactured 'Science': Another IPCC Scientist Reveals How UN Scientists talked about 'trying to make IPCC report so dramatic that US would just have to sign Kyoto Protocol'  

Tuesday, January 26, 2010 - By Marc Morano  –  Climate Depot

[Also see: Shock Revelation: UN scientist admits fake data was used in IPCC report 'purely to put political pressure on world leaders']

Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, served as a UN IPCC lead author in 2001 for the 3rd assessment report and detailed how he personally witnessed UN scientists attempting to distort the science for political purposes.

"I was at the table with three Europeans, and we were having lunch. And they were talking about their role as lead authors. And they were talking about how they were trying to make the report so dramatic that the United States would just have to sign that Kyoto Protocol," Christy told CNN on May 2, 2007. - (For more on UN scientists turning on the UN years ago, see Climate Depot's full reporthere. )

Christy has since proposed major reforms and changes to the way the UN IPCC report is produced. Christy has rejected the UN approach that produces "a document designed for uniformity and consensus." Christy presented his views at a UN meeting in 2009. The IPCC needs "an alternative view section written by well-credentialed climate scientists is needed," Christy said. "If not, why not? What is there to fear? In a scientific area as uncertain as climate, the opinions of all are required," he added.

'The reception to my comments was especially cold'

[The following is excerpted from Andrew Revkin's January 26, 2009 New York Times blog Dot Earth. For full article go here.]

Excerpt: Last March, more than 100 past [UN IPCC] lead authors of report chapters met in Hawaii to chart next steps for the panel's inquiries. One presenter there was John R. Christy, a climatologist at the University of Alabama, Huntsville, who has focused on using satellites to chart global temperatures. He was a lead author of a section of the third climate report, in 2001, but is best known these days as a critic of the more heated warnings that climate is already unraveling under the buildup of heat-trapping gases.

At the Hawaii meeting, he gave a presentation proposing that future reports contain a section providing the views of credentialed scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature whose views on particular points differ from the consensus. He provided both his poster and summary of his three-minute talk. In an e-mail message to me, he described the reaction this way (L.A. is short for lead author; AR5 is shorthand for the next report, coming in 2013-14.):

Christy: “The reception to my comments was especially cold ... not one supporter, though a couple of scientists did say I had a “lot of guts” to stand up and say what I said before 140 L.A.s. I was (and still am) calling for the AR5 to be a more open scientific assessment in which those of us who are well-credentialed and have evidence for low climate sensitivity (observational and theoretical) be given room to explain this. We should have the same standards of review authority too. When a subject is excruciatingly complicated, like climate, we see that opinion, overstatement, and appeal-to-authority tend to reign as those of a like-mind essentially take control in their self-constructed echo-chamber. The world needs to see all sides of the evidence. We in the climate business need to understand humility, not pride, when looking at a million degrees-of-freedom problem. It's just fine to say, 'We don't know,' when that is the truth of the matter.”

I (Revkin) also asked Christy, “Do you see a way forward for this enterprise (presuming you see these recent issues as serious problems but not a fatal indictment)?”

Christy said: “I think people would read AR5 if it were a true scientific assessment, complete with controversies [described] by the experts themselves. Policymakers will find it uncomfortable, because the simple fact remains that our ignorance of the climate system is enormous. Otherwise, it will be a repeat of what we are now seeing (and what many folks like me knew years ago), that the process has morphed into an agenda-approving exercise.”

To view Christy's poster see here.

Christy's full written paper to UN IPCC.

Can the IPCC Allow a Section of Alternative Views Authored by Equally Credentialed Climate Scientists? - March 2009 - Presented to UN IPCC Scientists

By Dr. John R. Christy - University of Alabama in Huntsville

I want you all to understand this: No one is holding a gun to my head and no one is paying me money either above or under the table to arrive at the conclusions I (and others) have come to.

I propose that the IPCC allow for well credentialed climate scientists to craft a chapter on an alternative view presenting evidence for low climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases than has been the IPCC's recent message – all based on published information. In other words, I am proposing that the AR5 be a true Scientific Assessment, not a document designed for uniformity and consensus. In a scientific area as uncertain as climate, the opinions of all are required. Three quick examples are on the poster.

First, the iconic mean surface temperature is a poor proxy for detecting greenhouse gas influences for reasons shown. And, this metric is not well-observed in any case.

Secondly, many of the so-called metrics of human-induced climate change are not changing at rates policymakers have assumed and the media promotes with the indulgence of the IPCC Leadership. And, other variables showing change are still within the magnitudes of long-term natural variations.

Thirdly, confidence that the climate system is highly sensitive to greenhouse gases can been shown to be overstated due to assumptions about how the sensitivity is calculated. Latest measurements clearly suggest a strong negative feedback in the short wave – in other words, in warming episodes, clouds respond to cool the climate. Another problem with popular sensitivity estimates is the dependence on essentially one century of an oblique greenhouse-proxy (mean surface temperature) combined with the notion that all of the natural, multi-decadal variability can be defined so accurately that the left-over warming is assumed to be human-induced. The investigation rather should examine all levels of natural variability that have been observed and seek to defensibly eliminate those as possible causes.

An alternative view is necessary, one that is not censured for the so-called purpose of consensus. This will present to our policymakers an honest picture of scientific discourse and process. I submit this proposal because our level of ignorance of the climate system is still enormous and our policymakers need to know that. We have much work to do.

Global Poverty

We have posted in the past on the fact that global poverty is falling.  This work helps quantize it rather well.  This also tells us that the ideological debate is long over.  Everyone knows what needs to be done and it looks as if progress is taking place almost everywhere.  At worst we are waiting for a few bad actors to get out of the way.

 

The big changes took place in south Asia and Latin America and accounted for most change.  In fairness, the next big wave of economic improvement will be visibly in Africa.  The cell phone is empowering the people hugely.

 

The remaining laggards are mostly in the Islamic Middle East but not the Islamic Far East.  They are determined to proceed slowly it seems.

 

It really informs us just how massively the world has changed in just the past thirty five years.  1970 was the end of the recovery stroke from the Second World War.  The next decade saw consolidation and minor liberalization.  The last twenty five years saw the adoption of modern methods by both China first and then India and Brazil with many others getting on board along the way.

 

China has now entered consolidation and India will also begin consolidation in another decade.  That does not mean a lack of growth so much as that everyone who is able to actively participate is.  Their strength will strongly accelerate Africa’s response.

 

The hard thing to get used to is that the US economy is continuing to fade proportionally and to have less an less impact on the global economy.  When you have spent your entire life checking US numbers as the present best case, you have a habit to break.  China is now our largest car maker having grown fifty percent this past year.  Those percentage jumps are still hard to accept.  Yet the reality is there while we drift.

 

 

 

Global Poverty Progress - Model Income Past, Present and Future

January 22,2010

http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/01/global-poverty-progress-model-income.html

 

There is an analysis of the model income of the world from 1970 and 2006. Model income is the level of income that is most common in the world. The graphs show on the left vertical the population with a particular income level and the bottom horizontal shows the income level. In 1970 about 50 million people had $500 of income per year. In 2006, About 100 million had $5000 of income per year.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq9ioMmftgKE0hfl4rHRjS82KTTgAmSrCHmHWthsEEFPLWZst_DcX7STa1LTOuZewY-41mSt_5aYqJqjBfwF_LlgkYhAACkKJCkzSiiacU07Wd-oIyMYbhI5vlWOLvq1iEj5PL_lqgL4PU/s400/worldincome19702006.jpg

World poverty is falling. Between 1970 and 2006, the global poverty rate has been cut by nearly three quarters. The percentage of the world population living on less than $1 a day (in PPP-adjusted 2000 dollars) went from 26.8% in 1970 to 5.4% in 2006. 1970 to 2006, poverty fell by 86% in South Asia, 73% in Latin America, 39% in the Middle East, and 20% in Africa.

An Attempt to Project Foreward 40 Years on Model Income

Goldmans Sachs had a forecast of GDP for the top 22 countries until 2050 and this was used to approximate world GDP growth. Using wikipedia estimates of future population the mean average GDP per capita was calculated. This was used to approximate the shift in modal income into the future. 

There are several ways that this method could be off. 

1) The Goldman Sachs estimates could be wrong. In particular China's GDP is projected by some to be 20% of Goldmans estimate and some have it 200% of Goldman Sachs. Disruptive technology such as molecular nanotechnology, super robotics, cheap nuclear fusion or AGI could arrive and alter the economic picture.

2) The World GDP may not track proportionally with the GDP of the top 22.

3) The modal income may not shift exactly in proportion to the mean income.

4) The population projection could be off

The biggest source of error is the first and the degree of possible error shrinks for the factors listed.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPcj6-h4Wrdzeq-NU-EmzaiEZSlkG2AXmUAB3qYtkzQlre2bxPaF3ml1uE8scjiZrzEbXLg5nTJn8_u2vjHMdydJ1bVxTL4FJGbR94_s54mihUVTUXvAEPYOg9gpOVpWfrSG7bGCfgfLEx/s640/worldgdpGoldman2050.jpg

Projected Modal Income is on the last line of the table.