timely memo on what's happening in private credit.

Private credit is simply due for an overdue contraction.  The usual tales of lowered standards abound

even the best lenders need to actualy lend money.  This leads to supply and demand issues when new participants show up and when banks become careful.  none of it is perfect but as noted high yeild lending ultimately earned its place.

the great truth is that so much works out in the long term and all that debt becomes good.

Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.'s CEO, just published a timely memo on what's happening in private credit.

His core argument is that direct lending was a genuinely useful financial innovation, which attracted early investors who did well. Later on, it drew in latecomers, some of whom lowered their standards, piled in capital, and set the stage for the correction we're seeing now.

A few things stand out:

- Private credit grew from ~$150B to over $2T in direct loans over 15 years — fuelled by post-GFC bank retrenchment, a decade of near-zero rates, and the boom in private equity.

- Software debt became a surprising concentration risk. Direct lending portfolios hold 20–30% software exposure — far more than high yield bonds (4–5%) or broadly syndicated loans (10–15%). AI disruption has now rattled that thesis.

- The liquidity mismatch problem is real. Individual investors were sold semi-liquid vehicles without fully understanding the redemption limits — a pattern Marks traces all the way back to 1929.

- His long-term view is measured: direct lending likely needs to go through a credit cycle before reaching a better place — much like high yield bonds did in the early 1990s.

The memo is a masterclass in pattern recognition. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes — and Marks has seen enough cycles to know the tune.

Worth a read for anyone in credit, private markets, or just trying to make sense of the current volatility.

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