It is already
happening and it is inevitable. It is
just not going to be quite as fast as this suggests. This will not be a breeding program which is
way too limited and even chancy. This is
about modifying the genome insitu while in the early stages. Up until then all we can really do at best is
to use a modest program of selection that must be controversial.
Certainly we are
going to channel what talent we have much better. It is not enough to have quick muscle twitch
or natural mathematical speed, it is also critical to be correctly nurtured and
that is generally missing in most cases.
The core difference between genius and mediocrity is thousands of pages
of data input almost independent of any particular mastery or memory skills for
that matter.
Sometimes not
remembering the irrelevant is as important as the clue that made the case.
What is coming
is genetic enhancement of the fetus, likely after the fetus is transferred to
an incubator after the first trimester. That
is our human future and we can expect some skull enlargement and thinning with
artificial reinforcement to provide exceptional protection. We saw that with the sky child were the skull
was reinforced with what appears to be carbon nanotubes.
Of course
disease becomes history only and exceptional strength as a natural expectation.
HEADS UP:
genetically-modified "super babies" (from China)
By Jason Stutman | Monday, November 25th, 2013
At the Beijing Genomics Institute (BGI), Chinese
scientists have been organizing DNA samples from 2,000 of the world's smartest
people.
The goal is to locate the genetic alleles
responsible for human intelligence, and eventually allow parents to cherry-pick
their children accordingly.
I know, it sounds a lot like the premise behind
science fiction film Gattaca...
But in fact, this notion is far from Hollywood.
Recent advances in genomic sequencing allow us to
map out individual genomes at a faster pace and at a lower cost than ever
before.
This isn't the work of a single independent research
group; this is a state-sponsored program. With it, the Chinese government plans
to raise its next generation's intelligence by an average of 15 IQ points.
I don't know about you, but the prospect of a
genetically-modified population is a bit disconcerting to me, especially when
the nation employing it also happens to be one of our greatest economic
competitors...
Before we get any deeper into a discussion about the
ethics of genetic science and "playing God," let me be upfront in
saying I'd rather not get into that here. I've come across people with
drastically different opinions on the matter, and tempers tend to fly high on
the issue.
To be perfectly frank, I couldn't care less about
the ethics of genetic science — at least, on this forum.
Because whether we think it's right or wrong, the
reality is there's a boatload of money to be made in this space. And
that's what I want to talk about today.
Designer Babies
This summer, the world's first person screened with
next generation sequencing (NGS) was born in the United Kingdom. Scientists
were able to identify a healthy embryo from a couple with a history of
miscarriage to produce a healthy baby boy using in vitro fertilization (IVF).
While genetic screening and IVF have existed for
over a decade now, NGS provides a much-needed reduction in cost — and an
equally welcomed bump in success rate.
Today the average IVF procedure will run you around
$12,500; and in the majority of cases, the procedure results in a miscarriage.
Of course, not many prospective parents have that
kind of cash to dish out, especially for a procedure with a high rate of
failure.
However, with NGS, screening costs are reduced along
with the rate of miscarriages.
Historically, the high cost of genetic testing has
kept the industry relatively modest, with annual revenue of ~$510 million. But
in the advent of new NGS techniques, that number is expected to reach $7.6
billion by 2018, according to BCC Research.
If you don't feel like doing the math, that's a
ridiculous 71.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
Designer
Medicine
Genetic testing doesn't stop at embryo screening...
There are several clinical applications for NGS in
health care, with 96% of these applications falling into one of three categories:
prediction, detection, and care selection.
Prediction means detecting a disease or
disorder before it manifests itself. Embryonic screening falls into this
category, as does pre-cancer testing.
Angelina Jolie recently made headlines for having gone
through a double mastectomy after genetic testing indicated a 50%-85% chance of
breast cancer. NGS will make this kind of testing available to the average
person, not just wealthy movie stars.
Detection simply refers to diagnostics.
Approximately 30 million, or one in every 10 Americans, have a genetic
disorder.
Genetic testing allows doctors diagnose these
patients and provide treatment accordingly.
Care selection involves using NGS to map a
patient's individual genetic code and guide their treatment plan based on its
structure.
Booz Allen Hamilton reports that this form of highly
personalized medicine may soon be used in every medical patient. Today, care
selection accounts for 40% of the genetic testing market.
The ultimate goal is that each of us will one day
own a digital copy of our unique genomes, which we can then share with doctors
as needed. This form of NGS would be done through direct-to-consumer (DTC)
testing services and allow patients to maintain control of their
information.
Market Outlook
If NGS is going to be used for every patient, the
market opportunity is absolutely massive.
Currently, it costs around $8,000 to map out a
single genome... but we are rapidly approaching the $1,000 mark.
If Booz Allen is correct — and NGS is used for
every patient — a $1,000 test would mean a potential $308 billion domestic
market for sequencing alone.
It's worth noting that if
patients were given ownership of their genomic data, the sequencing
market would eventually become saturated. We only have one genome, and it never
changes... so once it's mapped out, there's no need to pay for that service
again.
Of course, NGS market saturation is a long time
coming; but it doesn't hurt to be prepared for the inevitable.
Ultimately, recurring revenues in genome sequencing
will come not from the tests themselves, but instead from big data analytics.
Big Data Bio
When we talk about using big data to analyze the
genome, we're specifically referring to a field called bioinformatics. The
focus of bioinformatics is to store, organize, and analyze biological data.
The reality of NGS is that it has outpaced the
infrastructure supporting the genetic testing industry. While we can rapidly
extract genetic information, a bottleneck has formed at the levels of interpretation
and clinical application.
A genome contains over three billion base pairs,
making it nearly impossible for medical professionals to make informed clinical
decisions without the proper supports. The result of all this is a growing
demand for bioinformatics, specifically in NGS.
Last week, we added our first NGS bioinformatics
play to the Technology and Opportunity portfolio. It's a beaten-down
stock trading under $4.00 — but with its most recent quarter showing
nearly 1,000% in top-line growth, our one-year price target is sitting much
higher.
For just $99, you can order what's called a
phenotype DNA test. It won't sequence your entire genome; however, it will
examine what are arguably the most important one million base pairs.
Turning progress to profits,
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