Russian Scientists Predict Temperature Decline

There is theory out there that we are not seeing nor having reviewed and that bothers me.  The more so since this present fifteen year plateau is naturally biased downward at this time.  The positive effects of the present should peak this year and then disappear next year.  In short we are very much due for a reversal although not as deep as is been drummed here.

Without any special tools or theories, I am presently uncomfortable.  Of course, western climate science will be hurled into a deep disrepute that has been well earned and will haunt them a long time.  Yet the Russians have been getting it mostly right generally because they really have the long data time lines we all need thanks to Peter the Great if I recall correctly.

What I do not buy is the idea that the sun’s deliverable output varies significantly over long cycles.  At best we have the sunspot cycle which may through magnetic inference produce an extra blast of heat every decade or so.  On average, little changes.  Attempts to make it all work tend to be tortured and are generally in need of vastly more data.

Russian Scientists Warn Global Temperatures To Fall 1.5°C By 2050. Strong Doubts About Warming

By P Gosselin on 5. April 2013

http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/05/russian-scientist-warns-global-temperatures-to-fall-1-5c-by-2050-and-global-cooling-refuges/

Yesterday Germany’s No. 1 daily (circulation over 3.5 million), Bild online, carried the shock headline story: “Russian scientist sees next ice age approaching. Starting in 2014 it will start getting colder and colder +++ migration of people cannot be excluded“.

Renowned Russian scientist Chabibullo Abdussamatov warns of a harsher global climate beginning in 2014 and extending for decades.

Stories in Germany about global cooling, hard winters, and ice ages have been popping up faster than dandelions in May lately. Global warming is beginning to look historical.

Bild starts by reporting that finally the snow and ice gripping Russia since October are beginning to thaw. “That’s why most Russians shake their heads skeptically when the topic of global warming pops up,“ Bild writes.

While some scientists say the cold is due to global warming, “one scientist at the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg sees it completely differently: He sees the next ice age approaching soon!”

Astrophysicist Chabibullo Abdussamatov claims that the sun will radiate significantly less warmth in the coming years. “Consequently a ‘little ice age’ lies ahead.”

Bild adds that Abdussamatov says the Earth has had a negative energy budget since 1990, but that the oceans have been able to compensate with its stored energy. But the Russian scientist now says that’s over. Bild writes:

Beginning around 2014 the average annual temperature will begin to drop, and by 2050 it will be about 1.5°C cooler than today when the low point is reached. Also the water temperature in the world’s oceans will fall about 1°C.”

Personally, I think Abdussamatov is being too pessimistic. He says solar activity will be responsible for the decline, and says the 1.5°C temperature drop will be enough for Greenland to reglaciate. Other effects will be “a return to real hard Russian winters“, and cooler summers. Moreover he says the cooling will really start getting underway in 2015.

Abdussamatov is not the only scientist who is seriously skeptical of global warming. Bild writes that Andrei Fursov, Director of the Center for Russian Science at the Moscow University of Intellectual Sciences warns about the apocalyptic scenarios floating around. “The feared global warming left the worry of the ozone hole in the shadows. In the meantime, the ozone hole has since closed up by itself.”

Fursov says in an interview:

The ice at the poles is really melting, but that does necessarily have anything to do with greenhouse gases.”

Interesting that Abdussamatov sees a negative energy balance since 1990. An interesting view from Russia that needs to be looked at.