Thursday, May 20, 2010

Roman and Medieval Conformed in Himalyas

This item is a solid confirmation of a global climate effect that is outside of the experience of Europe and further confirms the strength of the millennial cycle recently posted on in this blog.

This means that all climate modeling must build in this thousand year long bias which is presently upward for the next few centuries.  It is not a great shift but it is certainly positive.  The total amplitude over the entire range is under two degrees and we are likely just entering the warm part for the next several centuries.

It is safe to grow those grape vines in northern latitudes and it is time to begin dairy farming in Greenland again.

The cycle length looks pretty close to been just under one thousand years to a high degree of certainty over the past several thousands of years.  Any switch over happens within a fifty year period.

The Roman and Medieval Warm Periods at Paradise Lake, Northwestern Himalaya


Bhattacharyya, A., Sharma, J., Shah, S.K. and Chaudhary, V. 2007. Climatic changes during the last 1800 yrs BP from Paradise Lake, Sela Pass, Arunachal Pradesh, Northeast HimalayaCurrent Science 93: 983-987.

What was done

The authors developed a relative history of atmospheric warmth and moisture covering the last 1800 years for the region surrounding Paradise Lake -- which is located in the Northeastern Himalaya at approximately 27°30.324'N, 92°06.269'E -- based on pollen and carbon isotopic (δ13C) analyses of a one-meter-long sediment profile they obtained from a pit "dug along the dry bed of the lakeshore."

What was learned

Bhattacharyya et al. report that their climatic reconstruction revealed a "warm and moist climate, similar to the prevailing present-day conditions," around AD 240 -- which would represent the last part of the Roman Warm Period -- as well as another such period that turned out to be "more warmer [our italics] 1100 yrs BP (around AD 985) corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period."

What it means

The existence of these two periods -- the former of which was at least as warm as the present, and the latter of which was actually warmer than the present -- occurring at times when the atmosphere's CO2 concentration was more than 100 ppm less than it is today, clearly suggests that today's warmth could well be due to a repeat performance of whatever it was that produced the equally high and higher temperatures, respectively, of these two earlier warm periods. And this study is but one of many distributed throughout the world that suggest the very same thing, as illustrated by the data we have archived in our Medieval Warm Period Project. Therefore, with each passing week,literally (because we post a new such study in each week's new issue of CO2 Science), it becomes ever more difficult for climate alarmists to claim that our current warmth is unprecedented over the past two millennia or more, and that it must thus be due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

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