The Gagging of Henk Tennekes

What is so appalling was how easily an obviously competent scientist was turned out of a key position merely because he chose to simply point out the obvious issues with the emerging global warming theory.

This is a repeat of the Lysenko tale under Stalin.  We once thought we were immune.  Now money does what Stalin did.

In fact political groupings form around funding initiatives and there is obviously huge pressure to suppress consenting opinion mostly because the scientist involved likely have no respect for the granters of the funds.  After all we do not want to confuse these fine citizens with detail.

A simple call to arms to save the world – that they can understand.  The arrogance is breathtaking.

It is insane of course; science has never worked like that.

I want you to think about something.  A discovery was announced a month ago that just might outright cure all cancers.  This will, if correct, abruptly end that cost factor in health medicine.  I also think the adoption of other protocols will largely end most incapacity among the elderly within the next decade.

So as we face rising potential costs we have also major reductions appearing.

You know that everyone is focused on the cost part of the equation as if reduction was impossible.

We live in a profoundly imperfect world in which far too many interests try to rig outcomes to suit their narrow interests.  The only justice comes when this is revealed.  I will not voice a silly platitude about it been inevitable.  It was not until the climategate emails were released.  To that minute, evidence had been suppressed for fifteen years.  That is a long piece out of a good man’s life.

We have a society that wants people to win or lose.  That process ensures that half of the best are often sidelined as this man was.

Gagged! Thrown out on the street! In the nineties, Henk Tennekes was made to clear his  desk and resign as Director of the KNMI (Dutch Meteorological Institute).

His sin? In a newspaper column the world-renowned meteorologist had disproved all the bold claims about climate change. Swearing in high places! And in the meantime, “hard proof” for the greenhouse effect evaporated. After all the scandal surrounding the UN IPCC panel, the skeptics voice  can finally be heard. Time for the rehabilitation of Holland’s first climate exile?

Rehabilitation of the country’s first CO2-exile

By Edwin Timmer

http://www.probeinternational.org/files/UKVersieHenkTennekes.pdf

ARNHEM - “I worry a lot these days. I worry about the arrogance of scientists who blithely claim that they are here to solve the climate problem, as long as they receive massive increases in funding. I worry about the way they covet new supercomputers. Others talk about ”stabilizing the climate“. I’m terrified of the arrogance, vanity and recklessness of those words. Why is it so  difficult to demonstrate a little humility?“ Is this a response to recent climate scandals? Sober criticism of the failed IPCC UN climate panel that exaggerated the melting of the glaciers? No, these are extracts from a column which appeared exactly twenty(!) years ago in a British scientific journal. When the then Director of Policy Development at the KNMI (Holland’s Met Office,) Henk Tennekes put the cat among the pigeons. Watch out for all the unsubstantiated claims about climate! “My role as research director was regarded by the people around me as primarily that of provider of the next even bigger computer. But I wanted to get to the heart of the problem. Are these forecast models reliable? Not funny, everyone thought. Looking for the truth?

You must be mad!

That means you have to accept the fallibility of these models. That’s much too dangerous. Most  of the KNMI researchers were happy if they could just sit in the cafeteria with their like-minded colleagues.”

Greenhouse Theory

The now 73-year-old scientist still persists in his fundamental criticism of climate modelling, for instance the often-heard argument that ‘95 percent of the greenhouse theory remains valid’. 

Tennekes: “Why does the IPCC ignore the oceans? The top 2½ meters of all sea-water contain as much heat as the total amount of heat in the atmosphere. Why has the topmost kilometre of the oceans turned colder during the last five years? We don’t know. Until we understand what is happening with the heat in the oceans, the models which aim to predict the climate are totally useless. Tennekes himself acknowledges that he has never been the easiest person to deal with. “I was a troublemaker, and have a horrible temper,” he says whilst gazing out over the snow from his home in the Molenbeke district of Arnhem. “I lose my temper and get angry easily. When that column was published, my associates complained behind my back to the big boss, Harry Fijnaut.”

Henk, within two years you’ll be out on the street“ said Harry. In fact, it took him three years because he first had to invent a reorganization which would make my position superfluous. That’s how those top level bureaucrats arrange things. He wouldn’t even allow me a dismissal on grounds of ’incompatibility of characters.’

Climate Outcast

And so Tennekes became the first climate exile in the Netherlands. In retrospect the incident is illustrative of how during the past twenty years climate research – and accompanying alarming statements „appears to have fallen into the hands of a small clique that tolerates no contradiction, and equates dissenters to Holocaust deniers. Tennekes: “KNMI’ers still avoid me like the plague, because I say something different from the group dogma. First you must believe in something, only then you are allowed to participate in their discussions” In 1986, Tennekes unleashed a revolution in weather forecasting in a speech to the Royal Meteorological Society. That speech made him world-famous among his peers. The slogan he launched in that speech was: “No forecast is complete without a forecast of forecast skill. His eyes twinkle when he recalls that event. For the IPCC this was a warning of biblical proportions. Once Tennekes was out on the street, he was floored, a psychological wreck. Moreover, there were problems with his pension. “There are few professors who earn as little as me.” Teaching college-level courses for retired people (in the UK these are called U3A, University for the 3rd Age) and his passion for flying and birds helped him get through it. Not only did Tennekes write the first book ever about turbulence in the ’70’s, he recently rewrote his book ’The Simple Science of Flight’, used by high school seniors and college students the world over. The bartailed godwit flies non-stop over the Pacific Ocean in a week. Eleven thousand kilometers from Alaska to New Zealand! How is it possible? How can it feed itself? Other species of wading birds manage only 5,000 kilometers!

What is at hand here? The bar-tailed godwit has much better aerodynamics than we thought. Enormously efficient flying muscles. And it undergoes crazy physiological changes during the flight. All of its fat and half of its flight muscles are burned up by the time it reaches its destination. Even its heart has shrunk. People have no idea of the flexibility of living things! “ His enthusiasm falters when he thinks of the World Wildlife Fund or the Society for the Protection of Birds, which see climate change as a major threat to animals. Tennekes buries his head in his hands and moans: “That’s not science, that’s advocacy. Environmental Clubs are based on the idea that each bird and each territory must remain the same forever. But nature is not static! Put a bird on an island and within one hundred years you have a new species. I get really annoyed by the idea that we’re here to save nature. That’s a terrible overstatement of our  abilities”. “The notion that the climate is the biggest catastrophe of our time, is pure grandstanding.

Who’s taken in by all this climate talk? Moreover, the general public is systematically exposed to nightmare scenarios. I find that  scandalous. Yes, as far as the climate debate goes, I’m becoming blunter every day. When IPCC says that sea level will rise fifty centimeters in a hundred years, it’s an exaggeration, but I’ll let them get away with it. If Al Gore makes six meters of it, then I’ll swear loudly. If Rob van Dorland of KNMI then smirks and says that Gore was perhaps  ”exaggerating a little“, then I’ll swear even more loudly. You’re fooling us! ”

New Ice Age

“I am much more anxious about the cooling of the earth. The ultimate fate of this planet is a new ice age. If the main wheat belts of the Northern hemisphere fail to produce their much needed harvest, heaven knows how we will feed ourselves. Well, it could be that warming will lead to a disaster. I still want to accept that. But you must weigh this unknown risk against other problems. Why should we spend insane amounts to prevent CO2 emissions, while the risk is uncertain and any potential benefits of the solution unsure? With much less money we could eradicate malaria from this planet. Or fight HIV, before the entire African population decimates itself“.

Intimate clique

“No, I’m not surprised about the fuss surrounding current climate research. This storm has been brewing for years. The contributions of climate skeptics disappear unnoticed in the rubbishbin.

IPCC is run by an intimate clique of only a few dozen people. I believe that Minister Cramer (Environment) is a victim of the spin-doctors who surround her, people who believe ’good causes’ are served best by evil means. But these green bureaucrats do not understand the meaning of the proverb. It is the road to HELL that is paved with good intentions, not the road to HEAVEN. You can print that.“

Translation: Richard Sumner (UK)

Photos from Texas I

These are done by a buddy of mine and I am going to post them from time to time.

EEStor Musings

This is a good piece of digging on the EEStor topic.  He uncovers that there is clearly more going on than the surface claims been made that some have shown to be unlikely, yet not impossible.  To date they have proven that they can manufacture a capacitor powder of the necessary size to support their claims.

That the material then may have superior capacitance is possibly a function of proprietary knowledge and this report tracks us through the right doors.  This was not going to be figured out in a garage cut of from the type of support a large lab can give.

At the end of the day, the powder performs or does not.  Surely that can be demonstrated today.  I will go further.  They could not have attracted their present partners without tricking up a pretty impressive bench test that blew away resistance.  I have to think such a test is possible and is simply not been shown off.  I can think of all sorts of good reasons for this in terms of proprietary protection.

They have actually told us a lot which tells me that they have plenty in the vault.

In the meantime we have to wait impatiently just like management for the mavens to make up[ a demo that looks pretty.

Kleiner's EEStor SMEs? Penn State. Hello?

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2010

http://bariumtitanate.blogspot.com/2010/02/kleiners-eestor-smes-penn-state-hello.html

One of the more interesting aspects of following the EEStor story is the belief among numerous reputable individuals that what EEStor has claimed to do is impossible. Skeptics say there are no known materials, in the capacitor realm, that can store between 10 and 20 thousand Joules/cc (EEStor's proposed energy density) due to phenomena known as saturation & breakdown respectively. While most academics are cautious about saying something is impossible, some are confident enough with regard to EEStor to say it will never happen.

What seems to be a unanimous opinion among those skilled in the art of capacitor materials is that the mechanism EEStor is exploiting to gain incredible energy density can not be a simple dipole system because the ion would be stretched outside the unit cell. (gross oversimplification: the toothpick can only be bent so far before it breaks...yielding toothpick.... pieces). But the data and presentation of EEStor's program as found in it's patents seem to suggest a simple dipole system is in use.

The question that arises, however, is how could Kleiner Perkins' Bill Joy, John Doerr & John Denniston (all of whom have been active in the EEStor project) invest A N Y T H I N G in a project like EEStor's? What sort of shoddy due diligence lead Kleiner Perkins to part with at least $3Mil of their clients' money (especially since much of that money comes from endowment funds from competent universities like MIT)? Well, fair reader, let me tell you.

According to numerous sources, Kleiner Perkins hired none other than THE pre-eminent US University in the field of material science, ie, Penn State University to evaluate EEStor's claims. The verdict of the hired guns Dr. Tom Shrout and Dr. Joe Dougherty? N O T  I M P O S S I B L E (You hear that John Miller?). ...which you should quickly note is about 18,000 kilometers away from "likely to work." This verdict seems to imply Penn State was not provided with prototypes but rather only data. Sources close to these researchers point out that Shrout & Dougherty, although under strict NDA with Kleiner & EEStor, will comment mostly in the negative concerning EEStor's chance for success.

It was in this atmosphere, a few years ago that Professor Clive Randall gave a presentation (at least twice) on several hyped technologies including EEStor's. The simple thrust of that presentation was that EEStor positions their technology as exploiting a simple dipole system which the physics show cannot produce enough energy density to support their claims. Case closed, right?

It was closed for all of the academics at Penn State until a funny thing happened about 16 months ago. One of the leading material researchers was approached by a mystery VC company who wanted to know all over again if there just might be an EEStor mechanism capable of providing the energy density that's been claimed. "Absolutely impossible" was the written reply "on the basis of a simple calculation." The mystery VC company then sent a representative to discuss with researchers "some additional information." [Note: thisinformation couldn't be found in an academic journal or spoken about at some academic conference].

The result of that meeting lead at least two prominent & senior Penn State researchers to an amazing discovery: it seems "sometimes a leopard can change its spots." But have ALL of the leopards changed their spots? No. This is primarily because even among a seemingly tight nit group like the PSU Materials Research Institute not all information is shared among colleagues. Although some researchers pretend not to know that Shrout and Dougherty were in possession of proprietary EEStor data, others genuinely did not know it due to what appears to be true professional discretion. But this discretion works in the opposite direction as well making what you are reading a possible source of enlightenment for persons who have been working at PSU for years.

A theory that a mechanism exists which can store more than 20,000J/cc is afoot at Penn State. But it cannot be talked about. Actually, it can be talked about but the talkers can't be named although if you read this blog, you would be in a proper position to form a theory.

So, what happens next? In the ordinary course of things, you might one day find an academic journal article spelling out the details of the mechanism in question. But in this one tiny special case, due to the ownership intention of the mystery VC company, you will not learn about it until a patent is published. ...or until you continue reading this blog, which ever comes first. (Muahaha)

I want to state emphatically that the VC company is in no way tied to any traditional capacitor or supercapacitor companies...giving one further reason to wonder how such an entity could stumble upon SOMETHING that causes Penn State leopard spots to change.

What can be said about this theory under analysis at PSU? First, the researchers have already demonstrated to their own satisfaction that some mechanisms exist which cannot be explained with simple ferroelectric models. Data has been collected in support of the theory. The mechanisms do not seem to be captured by the traditional definitions of capacitors OR batteries but some sort of hybrid in between both. The possible energy density is enormous.

For purposes of continuity, it should be re-echoed here that there are other ties between EEStor and Penn State. First, EEStor's Carl Nelson was a colleague of deceased & long time PSU researcher Bob Newnham, having taught him how to drive a car actually. Secondly, EEStor's patents reference work done by a Dupont researcher namedIan Burn. Burn is currently working under the umbrella of the Center for Dielectric Studies and has told me that he actually spoke to Dick Weir a couple years ago regarding the patents and stories that were emerging. According to Burn, Weir was not amenable to dialogue.

Another interesting tie between EEStor and Penn State comes via a mutual benefactor of sorts, WS Investments, which is the investment fund of law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati. The fund is managed by Mario Rosati and according to crunchbase.com it includes an investment in May 2008 with Strategic Polymer Sciences. SPS Inc. is a startup company focused on high energy density capacitors among other things and consists of many former and current Penn State researchers. Yes, an EEStor competitor. Where is Rosati's head in all of this? Law School. Check out the course he's teaching this semester at Berkely. (MUhahah)

So, what does it all add up to? What are we left with here? Well, as per usual, for you fair reader, you have a new set of tea leaves...familiar territory, right?

Archeological Dating Extended to 50,000 Years

This good to see.  Radio carbon dating has been and continues to be a valuable tool.  In fact it is mostly our only effective tool. Extending it to 50,000 years will allow evidence of some of mankind’s oldest traces to be effectively dated.

By and large, this form of dating has stood up rather well, although the advent of tree ring calibration for the first twelve thousand years put a lot of previous theory on its head and effectively ended the idea of Mesopotamia as the center of outgoing migration of civilized peoples.

We can now go comfortably much further back.

My only touch of disquiet with this type of data is that we lack an independent form of calibration able to act as a check.  I also suspect that carbon is more vulnerable to radionuclide contamination quite able to alter the ratios than we imagine.  Elemental carbon is an ionic sponge that collects such things from groundwater.

And after investigating dating on the Bronze Age and seeing the level of dispute there, I cannot imagine what we are going to have a few millennia older.

Building An Archaeological Time Machine

by Staff Writers

Belfast, Ireland (SPX) Feb 16, 2010

This is Professor Gerry McCormac and Dr. Paula Reimer pictured in the 14 Chrono Center at Queen's University Belfast. Staff at the center have been involved in the creation of a new calibration curve, which extends back 50,000 years. Credit: Queen's University Belfast

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Buidling_An_Archaeological_Time_Machine_999.html

Researchers at Queen's University have helped produce a new archaeological tool which could answer key questions in human evolution.

The new calibration curve, which extends back 50,000 years is a major landmark in radiocarbon dating-- the method used by archaeologists and geoscientists to establish the age of carbon-based materials.

It could help research issues including the effect of climate change on human adaption and migrations.

The project was led by Queen's University Belfast through a National Environment Research Centre (NERC) funded research grant to Dr Paula Reimer and Professor Gerry McCormac from the Centre for Climate, the Environment and Chronology (14CHRONO) at Queen's and statisticians at the University of Sheffield.

Ron Reimer and Professor Emeritus Mike Baillie from Queen's School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology also contributed to the work.

The curve called INTCAL09, has just been published in the journal Radiocarbon. It not only extends radiocarbon calibration but also considerably improves earlier parts of the curve.

Dr Reimer said: "The new radiocarbon calibration curve will be used worldwide by archaeologists and earth scientists to convert radiocarbon ages into a meaningful time scale comparable to historical dates or other estimates of calendar age.

"It is significant because this agreed calibration curve now extends over the entire normal range of radiocarbon dating, up to 50,000 years before today. Comparisons of the new curve to ice-core or other climate archives will provide information about changes in solar activity and ocean circulation."

It has taken nearly 30 years for researchers to produce a calibration curve this far back in time.

Since the early 1980s, an international working group called INTCAL has been working on the project.

The principle of radiocarbon dating is that plants and animals absorb trace amounts of radioactive carbon-14 from carbon dioxide in the atmosphere while they are alive but stop doing so when they die. The carbon-14 decays from archaeological and geological samples so the amount left in the sample gives an indication of how old the sample is.

As the amount of carbon -14 in the atmosphere is not constant, but varies with the strength of the earth's magnetic field, solar activity and ocean radiocarbon ages must be corrected with a calibration curve.

Most experts consider the technical limit of radiocarbon dating to be about 50,000 years, after which there is too little carbon-14 left to measure accurately with present day technology.

Free Trade and Modernization in Africa

I find blaming free trade a bit off the mark.  Free trade has never been about opening your market to gratuitous dumping.  A shipload of subsidized rice from New Orleans will wreck anyone’s rice market for a time.  The treat of it is however sufficient to keep most traders honest.

All countries need to use import quotas to protect local market integrity.  Imagine the uproar if someone dumped thirty shiploads of unwanted rice in New Orleans plugging all the storage.  These types of erratic transfers are normally blocked for obvious reasons.

The historic weakness of subsistence farming has been a lack of capital to both expand established production and to establish new production.  It is inevitable that this form of agriculture will modernize into larger well capitalized farms using far less manpower.

They may do a better job of that than we did, but few recall that our small rural farmers were essentially starved out of business for lack of ready capital.    That is why the farm was sold and or a job taken at the local factory.

Free Trade Cripples Food Production In Africa

by Staff Writers

Corvallis OR (SPX) Feb 16, 2010

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Free_Trade_Cripples_Food_Production_In_Africa_999.html

Despite good intentions, the push to privatize government functions and insistence upon "free trade" that is too often unfair has caused declining food production, increased poverty and a hunger crisis for millions of people in many African nations, researchers conclude in a new study.

Market reforms that began in the mid-1980s and were supposed to aid economic growth have actually backfired in some of the poorest nations in the world, and just in recent years led to multiple food riots, scientists report in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a professional journal.

"Many of these reforms were designed to make countries more efficient, and seen as a solution to failing schools, hospitals and other infrastructure," said Laurence Becker, an associate professor of geosciences at Oregon State University. "But they sometimes eliminated critical support systems for poor farmers who had no car, no land security, made $1 a day and had their life savings of $600 hidden under a mattress.

"These people were then asked to compete with some of the most efficient agricultural systems in the world, and they simply couldn't do it," Becker said. "With tariff barriers removed, less expensive imported food flooded into countries, some of which at one point were nearly self-sufficient in agriculture. Many people quit farming and abandoned systems that had worked in their cultures for centuries."

These forces have undercut food production for 25 years, the researchers concluded. They came to a head in early 2008 when the price of rice - a staple in several African nations - doubled in one year for consumers who spent much of their income solely on food. Food riots, political and economic disruption ensued.

The study was done by researchers from OSU, the University of California at Los Angeles and Macalester College. It was based on household and market surveys and national production data.

There are no simple or obvious solutions, Becker said, but developed nations and organizations such as the World Bank or International Monetary Fund need to better recognize that approaches which can be effective in more advanced economies don't readily translate to less developed nations.

"We don't suggest that all local producers, such as small farmers, live in some false economy that's cut off from the rest of the world," Becker said.

"But at the same time, we have to understand these are often people with little formal education, no extension systems or bank accounts, often no cars or roads," he said. "They can farm land and provide both food and jobs in their countries, but sometimes they need a little help, in forms that will work for them. Some good seeds, good advice, a little fertilizer, a local market for their products."

Many people in African nations, Becker said, farm local land communally, as they have been doing for generations, without title to it or expensive equipment - and have developed systems that may not be advanced, but are functional. They are often not prepared to compete with multinational corporations or sophisticated tradesystems.

The loss of local agricultural production puts them at the mercy of sudden spikes in food costs around the world. And some of the farmers they compete with in the U.S., East Asia and other nations receive crop supports or subsidies of various types, while they are told they must embrace completely free trade with no assistance.

"A truly free market does not exist in this world," Becker said. "We don't have one, but we tell hungry people in Africa that they are supposed to."

This research examined problems in Gambia and Cote d'Ivoire in Western Africa, where problems of this nature have been severe in recent years. It also looked at conditions in Mali, which by contrast has been better able to sustain local food production - because of better roads, a location that makes imported rice more expensive, a cultural commitment to local products and other factors.

Historically corrupt governments continue to be a problem, the researchers said.

"In many African nations people think of the government as looters, not as helpers or protectors of rights," Becker said. "But despite that, we have to achieve a better balance in governments providing some minimal supports to help local agriculture survive."

An emphasis that began in the 1980s on wider responsibilities for the private sector, the report said, worked to an extent so long as prices for food imports, especially rice, remained cheap. But it steadily caused higher unemployment and an erosion in local food production, which in 2007-08 exploded in a global food crisis, street riots and violence. The sophisticated techniques and cash-crop emphasis of the "Green Revolution" may have caused more harm than help in many locations, the study concluded.

Another issue, they said, was an "urban bias" in government assistance programs, where the few support systems in place were far more oriented to the needs of city dwellers than their rural counterparts.

Potential solutions, the researchers concluded, include more diversity of local crops, appropriate tariff barriers to give local producers a reasonable chance, subsidies where appropriate, and the credit systems, road networks, and local mills necessary to process local crops and get them to local markets.

Planned Decadal Oil Production

This item sketches the apparent emerging oil production picture over the next decade.  The surprise is the expected levels of production out of Iraq.  I would like to believe them except that they arrive rather conveniently to reassure us all that there is no problem with oil supply.  The point is that we are been promised around 12 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

 

The decline of current production is not predicted at all by anyone.  My own best guess is no guess at all except to say it could be fairly modest which is rather unlikely to massively catastrophic which is also unlikely.  The projected new production is around fifteen percent of current production over the next decade.  Yet all historic major fields are well into decline.

 

As I have stated in the past present production levels are not sustainable even with what is promised.  We need to be under 50 million barrels fairly soon.  The question is if we will be ahead of the curve or if we will be forced.

 

I do not know if we risk a present decline of twenty million barrels per day or not over the next decade.  Historical comparables suggest that it is so.

 

On a more upbeat note, enhanced production using THAI can make up any short fall by the end of the decade by producing deeper heavy oil everywhere.  Burning oil can remain an option for a couple of decades or more yet.  The pricing structure however will drive the development of every likely alternative and this will be a transition period.

 

The good news is that the transition may continue to be fairly smooth.

 

Latest Canadian Oilsand Production Growth Forecast and Summarizing Main World Oil Production Growth Sources

FEBRUARY 10, 2010

 

 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK1Z2kfx_trA66UyYShKzir9kWoLKoHCDVz7r83t6-8vlLuzHcSfP_e9O6yST4tOL3Ji4rS1fWTe6WJiZZAaISI9js1qFRXwoQ6WQL-72m8ZXgztm130j7Ba3S3tbS2BJAHozgjEVa4kwl/s320/canadaoilsandsforecast2009.jpg

Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers have an updated forecast for canadian oil production and in particular the oilsands

Wall Street Journal - Lower labour and material costs are enabling more oil sand projects to get restarted

Adding Significant Oil in Iraq, Brazil, Canada and the United States

Canada will be adding a little of 1 million barrels of oil per day from now to 2020. More could be added if oil prices stay strong.

Iraq oil production could increase by 9.5 million barrels of oil per day over the next six years.

Brazil is projected to add 2-3 million barrels of oil per day by the largest private owner of Brazillian oil, Eike Batista

The United States is increasing its oil production and could add a million barrels per day or more over the next few years.

Wider application of horizontal drilling 

Canadian Oilsand

Economics coming into line for some projects

-Driven by stronger oil prices and lower costs

-Projects under construction:

•Imperial Kearl Lake

•Shell Jackpine and Shell upgrader including Quest CCS project

-Projects Re-activated

•Suncor Firebag Phases 3 and 4

•Devon Jackfish Phase 3 application in 2010

•Cenovus Christina Lake –application for phases E, F, G

•ConocoPhillips/Total –Surmount phase 2

•Husky/BP –Sunrise phase 1

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitFI-4-cApGJLOTHfpFJX9z4nk_bVABjpbJuZ5Spncw69CfvxzJxYMAi9xSTp4oWBQg__g0TiyNMGpiKdn9ifVCJGIsMe-2CVijcZSANx2A7OHnyqVy2F3rsXWZWw2f2o7Ga1_hzs5A6Hq/s320/canadaoilsandsforecast2009b.jpg

-Enhanced Oil/Tight Oil

•Technology enabled plays such as the Bakken, Cardium and Viking (multi-frac horizontal wells)

•Narrow Light/Heavy Differentials

-Good news for heavy oil projects

-Tough for stand alone upgraders in the short term

•Competing against existing capacity left empty by Venezuela and Mexico

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOE6oNfmZAJvFTN_YqD4jkk0uH3eIk4C-J0I28fQSgmwE8dynH28Tmdq1RYVybxWq_LuQq_DFvgbUyEvurfEisYwCBiewlYZ-Gwu1EcYXWcz_DciO9LFqgMOB0SlpHvBKdB8IFUe8Z_Y9I/s320/canadaoilsandsforecast2009c.jpg

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4yX8Jv3jMKBrwQkVka6eQE_d7jYRZ7tBZkykcAPItEoNPcVyXx700HKhbeYH-njgfZXMVzNfOq6rhooAJGSoPgEH850kHLCq7cnGEQZ6ttcvGdzo2XEX2U2zFkOjxSLkltsWHY5qp2nOo/s320/canadaoilsandsforecast2009d.jpg